Missing data in bioarchaeology II: A test of ordinal and continuous data imputation.

OBJECTIVES: Previous research has shown that while missing data are common in bioarchaeological studies, they are seldom handled using statistically rigorous methods. The primary objective of this article is to evaluate the ability of imputation to manage missing data and encourage the use of advanced statistical methods in bioarchaeology and paleopathology. An overview of missing data management in biological anthropology is provided, followed by a test of imputation and deletion methods for handling missing data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Missing data were simulated on complete datasets of ordinal (n = 287) and continuous (n = 369) bioarchaeological data. Missing values were imputed using five imputation methods (mean, predictive mean matching, random forest, expectation maximization, and stochastic regression) and the success of each at obtaining the parameters of the original dataset compared with pairwise and listwise deletion. RESULTS: In all instances, listwise deletion was least successful at approximating the original parameters. Imputation of continuous data was more effective than ordinal data. Overall, no one method performed best and the amount of missing data proved a stronger predictor of imputation success. DISCUSSION: These findings support the use of imputation methods over deletion for handling missing bioarchaeological and paleopathology data, especially when the data are continuous. Whereas deletion methods reduce sample size, imputation maintains sample size, improving statistical power and preventing bias from being introduced into the dataset.

Twenty-first century bioarchaeology: Taking stock and moving forward.

This article presents outcomes from a Workshop entitled "Bioarchaeology: Taking Stock and Moving Forward," which was held at Arizona State University (ASU) on March 6-8, 2020. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the School of Human Evolution and Social Change (ASU), and the Center for Bioarchaeological Research (CBR, ASU), the Workshop's overall goal was to explore reasons why research proposals submitted by bioarchaeologists, both graduate students and established scholars, fared disproportionately poorly within recent NSF Anthropology Program competitions and to offer advice for increasing success. Therefore, this Workshop comprised 43 international scholars and four advanced graduate students with a history of successful grant acquisition, primarily from the United States. Ultimately, we focused on two related aims: (1) best practices for improving research designs and training and (2) evaluating topics of contemporary significance that reverberate through history and beyond as promising trajectories for bioarchaeological research. Among the former were contextual grounding, research question/hypothesis generation, statistical procedures appropriate for small samples and mixed qualitative/quantitative data, the salience of Bayesian methods, and training program content. Topical foci included ethics, social inequality, identity (including intersectionality), climate change, migration, violence, epidemic disease, adaptability/plasticity, the osteological paradox, and the developmental origins of health and disease. Given the profound changes required globally to address decolonization in the 21st century, this concern also entered many formal and informal discussions.

Evolutionary history of Mycobacterium leprae in the Pacific Islands.

As one of the oldest known human diseases, leprosy or Hansen's disease remains a public health concern around the world with over 200 000 new cases in 2018. Most human leprosy cases are caused by Mycobacterium leprae, but a small number of cases are now known to be caused by Mycobacterium lepromatosis, a sister taxon of M. leprae. The global pattern of genomic variation in M. leprae is not well defined. Particularly, in the Pacific Islands, the origins of leprosy are disputed. Historically, it has been argued that leprosy arrived on the islands during nineteenth century colonialism, but some oral traditions and palaeopathological evidence suggest an older introduction. To address this, as well as investigate patterns of pathogen exchange across the Pacific Islands, we extracted DNA from 39 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded biopsy blocks dating to 1992-2016. Using whole-genome enrichment and next-generation sequencing, we produced nine M. leprae genomes dating to 1998-2015 and ranging from 4-63× depth of coverage. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that these strains belong to basal lineages within the M. leprae phylogeny, specifically falling in branches 0 and 5. The phylogeographical patterning and evolutionary dating analysis of these strains support a pre-modern introduction of M. leprae into the Pacific Islands. This article is part of the theme issue 'Insights into health and disease from ancient biomolecules'.