Analysis of urinary potassium isotopes and association with pancreatic health: healthy, diabetic and cancerous states.

Background: More than 700 million people worldwide suffer from diseases of the pancreas, such as diabetes, pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer. Often dysregulation of potassium (K+) channels, co-transporters and pumps can promote development and progression of many types of these diseases. The role of K+ transport system in pancreatic cell homeostasis and disease development remains largely unexplored. Potassium isotope analysis (δ41K), however, might have the potential to detect minute changes in metabolic processes relevant for pancreatic diseases. Methods: We assessed urinary K isotope composition in a case-control study by measuring K concentrations and δ41K in spot urines collected from patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer (n=18), other pancreas-related diseases (n=14) and compared those data to healthy controls (n=16). Results: Our results show that urinary K+ levels for patients with diseased pancreas (benign and pancreatic cancer) are significantly lower than the healthy controls. For δ41K, the values tend to be higher for individuals with pancreatic cancer (mean δ41K = -0.58 ± 0.33‰) than for healthy individuals (mean δ41K = -0.78 ± 0.19‰) but the difference is not significant (p=0.08). For diabetics, urinary K+ levels are significantly lower (p=0.03) and δ41K is significantly higher (p=0.009) than for the healthy controls. These results suggest that urinary K+ levels and K isotopes can help identify K disturbances related to diabetes, an associated factors of all-cause mortality for diabetics. Conclusion: Although the K isotope results should be considered exploratory and hypothesis-generating and future studies should focus on larger sample size and δ41K analysis of other K-disrupting diseases (e.g., chronic kidney disease), our data hold great promise for K isotopes as disease marker.

Utility Scores for Risk-Reducing Mastectomy and Risk-Reducing Salpingo-Oophorectomy: Mapping to EQ-5D.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) are the most effective breast and ovarian cancer preventive interventions. EQ-5D is the recommended tool to assess the quality of life and determine health-related utility scores (HRUSs), yet there are no published EQ-5D HRUSs after these procedures. These are essential for clinicians counselling patients and for health-economic evaluations. METHODS: We used aggregate data from our published systematic review and converted SF-36/SF-12 summary scores to EQ-5D HRUSs using a published mapping algorithm. Study control arm or age-matched country-specific reference values provided comparison. Random-effects meta-analysis provided adjusted disutilities and utility scores. Subgroup analyses included long-term vs. short-term follow-up. RESULTS: Four studies (209 patients) reported RRM outcomes using SF-36, and five studies (742 patients) reported RRSO outcomes using SF-12/SF-36. RRM is associated with a long-term (>2 years) disutility of -0.08 (95% CI -0.11, -0.04) (I2 31.4%) and a utility of 0.92 (95% CI 0.88, 0.95) (I2 31.4%). RRSO is associated with a long-term (>1 year) disutility of -0.03 (95% CI -0.05, 0.00) (I2 17.2%) and a utility of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94, 0.99) (I2 34.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We present the first HRUSs sourced from patients following RRM and RRSO. There is a need for high-quality prospective studies to characterise quality of life at different timepoints.

Bayesian and deep-learning models applied to the early detection of ovarian cancer using multiple longitudinal biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the most lethal of all gynecological cancers. Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) is the best-performing ovarian cancer biomarker which however is still not effective as a screening test in the general population. Recent literature reports additional biomarkers with the potential to improve on CA125 for early detection when using longitudinal multimarker models. METHODS: Our data comprised 180 controls and 44 cases with serum samples sourced from the multimodal arm of UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). Our models were based on Bayesian change-point detection and recurrent neural networks. RESULTS: We obtained a significantly higher performance for CA125-HE4 model using both methodologies (AUC 0.971, sensitivity 96.7% and AUC 0.987, sensitivity 96.7%) with respect to CA125 (AUC 0.949, sensitivity 90.8% and AUC 0.953, sensitivity 92.1%) for Bayesian change-point model (BCP) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) approaches, respectively. One year before diagnosis, the CA125-HE4 model also ranked as the best, whereas at 2 years before diagnosis no multimarker model outperformed CA125. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified and tested different combination of biomarkers using longitudinal multivariable models that outperformed CA125 alone. We showed the potential of multivariable models and candidate biomarkers to increase the detection rate of ovarian cancer.

Short-term and medium-term clinical outcomes of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a prospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Even though the incidence of Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in children (MIS-C) is decreasing cases are still reported across the world. Studying the consequences of MIS-C enhances our understanding of the disease's prognosis. The objective of this study was to assess short- and medium-term clinical outcomes of MIS-C. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study at Municipal Children's Hospital Morozovskaya, Moscow, Russia. All children meeting the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), or the World Health Organization (WHO) MIS-C case definition admitted to the hospital between 17 May and 26 October 2020 were included in the study. All survivors were invited to attend a clinic at 2 and 6 weeks after hospital discharge. RESULTS: 37 children median age 6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 3.3-9.4), 59.5% (22/37) boys were included in the study. 48.6% (18/37) of patients required ICU care. One child died. All children had increased levels of systemic inflammatory markers during the acute event. Echocardiographic investigations identified abnormal findings in 35.1% (13/37) of children. 5.6% (2/36) of children were presenting with any symptoms six weeks after discharge. By six weeks the inflammatory markers were within the reference norms in all children. The echocardiographic evaluation showed persistent coronary dilatation in one child. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the severity of their acute MIS-C, the majority of children in our cohort fully recovered with none having elevated laboratory markers of inflammation at 6 weeks, few (< 10%) reporting persistent symptoms at 6 weeks, and only one with persistent echocardiographic abnormalities.

Patient decision aids in mainstreaming genetic testing for women with ovarian cancer: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate patient preference for short (gist) or detailed/extensive decision aids (DA) for genetic testing at ovarian cancer (OC) diagnosis. DESIGN: Cohort study set within recruitment to the Systematic Genetic Testing for Personalised Ovarian Cancer Therapy (SIGNPOST) study (ISRCTN: 16988857). SETTING: North-East London Cancer Network (NELCN) population. POPULATION/SAMPLE: Women with high-grade non-mucinous epithelial OC. METHODS: A more detailed DA was developed using patient and stakeholder input following the principles/methodology of IPDAS (International Patients Decision Aids Standards). Unselected patients attending oncology clinics evaluated both a pre-existing short and a new long DA version and then underwent mainstreaming genetic testing by a cancer clinician. Appropriate inferential descriptive and regression analyses were undertaken. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Satisfaction, readability, understanding, emotional well-being and preference for long/short DA. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 66 years (interquartile range 11), and 85% were White British ethnicity. Of the participants, 74% found DAs helpful/useful in decision-making. Women reported higher levels of satisfaction (86% versus 58%, p < 0.001), right amount of information provided (76.79% versus49.12%, p < 0.001) and improved understanding (p < 0.001) with the long DA compared with the short DA. There was no statistically significant difference in emotional outcomes (feeling worried/concerned/reassured/upset) between 'short' and 'long' DA; 74% of patients preferred the long DA and 24% the short DA. Patients undergoing treatment (correlation coefficient (coef) = 0.603; 95% CI 0.165-1.041, p = 0.007), those with recurrence (coef = 0.493; 95% CI 0.065-0.92, p = 0.024) and older women (coef = 0.042; 95% CI 0.017-0.066, p = 0.001) preferred the short DA. Ethnicity did not affect outcomes or overall preference for long/short DA. CONCLUSIONS: A longer DA in OC patients has higher satisfaction without increasing emotional distress. Older women and those undergoing treatment/recurrence prefer less extensive information, whereas those in remission preferred a longer DA.

Prognosis Following Surgery for Recurrent Ovarian Cancer and Diagnostic Criteria Predictive of Cytoreduction Success: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

For women achieving clinical remission after the completion of initial treatment for epithelial ovarian cancer, 80% with advanced-stage disease will develop recurrence. However, the standard treatment of women with recurrent platinum-sensitive diseases remains poorly defined. Secondary (SCS), tertiary (TCS) or quaternary (QCS) cytoreduction surgery for recurrence has been suggested to be associated with increased overall survival (OS). We searched five databases for studies reporting death rate, OS, cytoreduction rates, post-operative morbidity/mortality and diagnostic models predicting complete cytoreduction in a platinum-sensitive disease recurrence setting. Death rates calculated from raw data were pooled based on a random-effects model. Meta-regression/linear regression was performed to explore the role of complete or optimal cytoreduction as a moderator. Pooled death rates were 45%, 51%, 66% for SCS, TCS and QCS, respectively. Median OS for optimal cytoreduction ranged from 16-91, 24-99 and 39-135 months for SCS, TCS and QCS, respectively. Every 10% increase in complete cytoreduction rates at SCS corresponds to a 7% increase in median OS. Complete cytoreduction rates ranged from 9-100%, 35-90% and 33-100% for SCS, TCS and QCS, respectively. Major post-operative thirty-day morbidity was reported to range from 0-47%, 13-33% and 15-29% for SCS, TCS and QCS, respectively. Thirty-day post-operative mortality was 0-6%, 0-3% and 0-2% for SCS, TCS and QCS, respectively. There were two externally validated diagnostic models predicting complete cytoreduction at SCS, but none for TCS and QCS. In conclusion, our data confirm that maximal effort higher order cytoreductive surgery resulting in complete cytoreduction can improve survival.

International Variations in Surgical Morbidity and Mortality Post Gynaecological Oncology Surgery: A Global Gynaecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative Led Study (GO SOAR1).

Gynaecological malignancies affect women in low and middle income countries (LMICs) at disproportionately higher rates compared with high income countries (HICs) with little known about variations in access, quality, and outcomes in global cancer care. Our study aims to evaluate international variation in post-operative morbidity and mortality following gynaecological oncology surgery between HIC and LMIC settings. Study design consisted of a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of women undergoing surgery for gynaecological malignancies (NCT04579861). Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested-models of patients within hospitals/countries. We enrolled 1820 patients from 73 hospitals in 27 countries. Minor morbidity (Clavien-Dindo I-II) was 26.5% (178/672) and 26.5% (267/1009), whilst major morbidity (Clavien-Dindo III-V) was 8.2% (55/672) and 7% (71/1009) for LMICs/HICs, respectively. Higher minor morbidity was associated with pre-operative mechanical bowel preparation (OR = 1.474, 95%CI = 1.054-2.061, p = 0.023), longer surgeries (OR = 1.253, 95%CI = 1.066-1.472, p = 0.006), greater blood loss (OR = 1.274, 95%CI = 1.081-1.502, p = 0.004). Higher major morbidity was associated with longer surgeries (OR = 1.37, 95%CI = 1.128-1.664, p = 0.002), greater blood loss (OR = 1.398, 95%CI = 1.175-1.664, p ≤ 0.001), and seniority of lead surgeon, with junior surgeons three times more likely to have a major complication (OR = 2.982, 95%CI = 1.509-5.894, p = 0.002). Of all surgeries, 50% versus 25% were performed by junior surgeons in LMICs/HICs, respectively. We conclude that LMICs and HICs were associated with similar post-operative major morbidity. Capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention.

Using a Recurrent Neural Network To Inform the Use of Prostate-specific Antigen (PSA) and PSA Density for Dynamic Monitoring of the Risk of Prostate Cancer Progression on Active Surveillance.

The global uptake of prostate cancer (PCa) active surveillance (AS) is steadily increasing. While prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) is an important baseline predictor of PCa progression on AS, there is a scarcity of recommendations on its use in follow-up. In particular, the best way of measuring PSAD is unclear. One approach would be to use the baseline gland volume (BGV) as a denominator in all calculations throughout AS (nonadaptive PSAD, PSADNA), while another would be to remeasure gland volume at each new magnetic resonance imaging scan (adaptive PSAD, PSADA). In addition, little is known about the predictive value of serial PSAD in comparison to PSA. We applied a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to an AS cohort of 332 patients and found that serial PSADNA significantly outperformed both PSADA and PSA for follow-up prediction of PCa progression because of its high sensitivity. Importantly, while PSADNA was superior in patients with smaller glands (BGV ≤55 ml), serial PSA was better in men with larger prostates of >55 ml. Patient summary: Repeat measurements of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and PSA density (PSAD) are the mainstay of active surveillance in prostate cancer. Our study suggests that in patients with a prostate gland of 55 ml or smaller, PSAD measurements are a better predictor of tumour progression, whereas men with a larger gland may benefit more from PSA monitoring.

Immunoglobulin, glucocorticoid, or combination therapy for multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children: a propensity-weighted cohort study.

Background: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), a hyperinflammatory condition associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, has emerged as a serious illness in children worldwide. Immunoglobulin or glucocorticoids, or both, are currently recommended treatments. Methods: The Best Available Treatment Study evaluated immunomodulatory treatments for MIS-C in an international observational cohort. Analysis of the first 614 patients was previously reported. In this propensity-weighted cohort study, clinical and outcome data from children with suspected or proven MIS-C were collected onto a web-based Research Electronic Data Capture database. After excluding neonates and incomplete or duplicate records, inverse probability weighting was used to compare primary treatments with intravenous immunoglobulin, intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, or glucocorticoids alone, using intravenous immunoglobulin as the reference treatment. Primary outcomes were a composite of inotropic or ventilator support from the second day after treatment initiation, or death, and time to improvement on an ordinal clinical severity scale. Secondary outcomes included treatment escalation, clinical deterioration, fever, and coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN69546370. Findings: We enrolled 2101 children (aged 0 months to 19 years) with clinically diagnosed MIS-C from 39 countries between June 14, 2020, and April 25, 2022, and, following exclusions, 2009 patients were included for analysis (median age 8·0 years [IQR 4·2-11·4], 1191 [59·3%] male and 818 [40·7%] female, and 825 [41·1%] White). 680 (33·8%) patients received primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin, 698 (34·7%) with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, 487 (24·2%) with glucocorticoids alone; 59 (2·9%) patients received other combinations, including biologicals, and 85 (4·2%) patients received no immunomodulators. There were no significant differences between treatments for primary outcomes for the 1586 patients with complete baseline and outcome data that were considered for primary analysis. Adjusted odds ratios for ventilation, inotropic support, or death were 1·09 (95% CI 0·75-1·58; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids and 0·93 (0·58-1·47; corrected p value=1·00) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Adjusted average hazard ratios for time to improvement were 1·04 (95% CI 0·91-1·20; corrected p value=1·00) for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids, and 0·84 (0·70-1·00; corrected p value=0·22) for glucocorticoids alone, versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Treatment escalation was less frequent for intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids (OR 0·15 [95% CI 0·11-0·20]; p<0·0001) and glucocorticoids alone (0·68 [0·50-0·93]; p=0·014) versus intravenous immunoglobulin alone. Persistent fever (from day 2 onward) was less common with intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids compared with either intravenous immunoglobulin alone (OR 0·50 [95% CI 0·38-0·67]; p<0·0001) or glucocorticoids alone (0·63 [0·45-0·88]; p=0·0058). Coronary artery aneurysm occurrence and resolution did not differ significantly between treatment groups. Interpretation: Recovery rates, including occurrence and resolution of coronary artery aneurysms, were similar for primary treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin when compared to glucocorticoids or intravenous immunoglobulin plus glucocorticoids. Initial treatment with glucocorticoids appears to be a safe alternative to immunoglobulin or combined therapy, and might be advantageous in view of the cost and limited availability of intravenous immunoglobulin in many countries. Funding: Imperial College London, the European Union's Horizon 2020, Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Foundation, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and National Institutes of Health.

Breast Cancer Risk and Breast-Cancer-Specific Mortality following Risk-Reducing Salpingo-Oophorectomy in BRCA Carriers: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is the gold standard method of ovarian cancer risk reduction, but the data are conflicting regarding the impact on breast cancer (BC) outcomes. This study aimed to quantify BC risk/mortality in BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers after RRSO. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review (CRD42018077613) of BRCA1/BRCA2 carriers undergoing RRSO, with the outcomes including primary BC (PBC), contralateral BC (CBC) and BC-specific mortality (BCSM) using a fixed-effects meta-analysis, with subgroup analyses stratified by mutation and menopause status. RESULTS: RRSO was not associated with a significant reduction in the PBC risk (RR = 0.84, 95%CI: 0.59-1.21) or CBC risk (RR = 0.95, 95%CI: 0.65-1.39) in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers combined but was associated with reduced BC-specific mortality in BC-affected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers combined (RR = 0.26, 95%CI: 0.18-0.39). Subgroup analyses showed that RRSO was not associated with a reduction in the PBC risk (RR = 0.89, 95%CI: 0.68-1.17) or CBC risk (RR = 0.85, 95%CI: 0.59-1.24) in BRCA1 carriers nor a reduction in the CBC risk in BRCA2 carriers (RR = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.07-1.74) but was associated with a reduction in the PBC risk in BRCA2 carriers (RR = 0.63, 95%CI: 0.41-0.97) and BCSM in BC-affected BRCA1 carriers (RR = 0.46, 95%CI: 0.30-0.70). The mean NNT = 20.6 RRSOs to prevent one PBC death in BRCA2 carriers, while 5.6 and 14.2 RRSOs may prevent one BC death in BC-affected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers combined and BRCA1 carriers, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: RRSO was not associated with PBC or CBC risk reduction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers combined but was associated with improved BC survival in BC-affected BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers combined and BRCA1 carriers and a reduced PBC risk in BRCA2 carriers.

Time series radiomics for the prediction of prostate cancer progression in patients on active surveillance.

Serial MRI is an essential assessment tool in prostate cancer (PCa) patients enrolled on active surveillance (AS). However, it has only moderate sensitivity for predicting histopathological tumour progression at follow-up, which is in part due to the subjective nature of its clinical reporting and variation among centres and readers. In this study, we used a long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network (RNN) to develop a time series radiomics (TSR) predictive model that analysed longitudinal changes in tumour-derived radiomic features across 297 scans from 76 AS patients, 28 with histopathological PCa progression and 48 with stable disease. Using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), we found that an LSTM-based model combining TSR and serial PSA density (AUC 0.86 [95% CI: 0.78-0.94]) significantly outperformed a model combining conventional delta-radiomics and delta-PSA density (0.75 [0.64-0.87]; p = 0.048) and achieved comparable performance to expert-performed serial MRI analysis using the Prostate Cancer Radiologic Estimation of Change in Sequential Evaluation (PRECISE) scoring system (0.84 [0.76-0.93]; p = 0.710). The proposed TSR framework, therefore, offers a feasible quantitative tool for standardising serial MRI assessment in PCa AS. It also presents a novel methodological approach to serial image analysis that can be used to support clinical decision-making in multiple scenarios, from continuous disease monitoring to treatment response evaluation. KEY POINTS: •LSTM RNN can be used to predict the outcome of PCa AS using time series changes in tumour-derived radiomic features and PSA density. •Using all available TSR features and serial PSA density yields a significantly better predictive performance compared to using just two time points within the delta-radiomics framework. •The concept of TSR can be applied to other clinical scenarios involving serial imaging, setting out a new field in AI-driven radiology research.

Serum biomarker-based early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with ensemble learning.

BACKGROUND: Earlier detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is key to improving patient outcomes, as it is mostly detected at advanced stages which are associated with poor survival. Developing non-invasive blood tests for early detection would be an important breakthrough. METHODS: The primary objective of the work presented here is to use a dataset that is prospectively collected, to quantify a set of cancer-associated proteins and construct multi-marker models with the capacity to predict PDAC years before diagnosis. The data used is part of a nested case-control study within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening and is comprised of 218 samples, collected from a total of 143 post-menopausal women who were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 70 months after sample collection, and 249 matched non-cancer controls. We develop a stacked ensemble modelling technique to achieve robustness in predictions and, therefore, improve performance in newly collected datasets. RESULTS: Here we show that with ensemble learning we can predict PDAC status with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI 0.75-1.0), sensitivity of 92% (95% CI 0.54-1.0) at 90% specificity, up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and at an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.74-0.93) up to 2 years prior to diagnosis (sensitivity of 61%, 95% CI 0.17-0.83, at 90% specificity). CONCLUSIONS: The ensemble modelling strategy explored here outperforms considerably biomarker combinations cited in the literature. Further developments in the selection of classifiers balancing performance and heterogeneity should further enhance the predictive capacity of the method.

Pancreatic cancers are most frequently detected at an advanced stage. This limits treatment options and contributes to the dismal survival rates currently recorded. The development of new tests that could improve detection of early-stage disease is fundamental to improve outcomes. Here, we use advanced data analysis techniques to devise an early detection test for pancreatic cancer. We use data on markers in the blood from people enrolled on a screening trial. Our test correctly identifies as positive for pancreatic cancer 91% of the time up to 1 year prior to diagnosis, and 78% of the time up to 2 years prior to diagnosis. These results surpass previously reported tests and should encourage further evaluation of the test in different populations, to see whether it should be adopted in the clinic.

A case-control study to evaluate the impact of the breast screening programme on breast cancer incidence in England.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about overdiagnosis in mammography screening. METHODS: We aimed to estimate the effect of screening on breast cancer incidence and overdiagnosis in the NHS Breast Screening Programme in England. The study included 57,493 cases and 105,653 controls, with cases defined as women diagnosed at ages 47-89 with primary breast cancer, invasive or ductal carcinoma in situ, in 2010 or 2011. Where possible, two controls were selected per case, matched on date of birth and screening area. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of screening on breast cancer risk, with adjustment for potential self-selection bias. Results were combined with national incidence data to estimate absolute rates of overdiagnosis. Overdiagnosis was calculated as the cumulative excess of cancers diagnosed in the age group 50-77 in a woman attending three-yearly screening between ages 50 and 70 compared with a woman attending no screens. RESULTS: The estimated number of cases overdiagnosed in women attending all screens in the programme was 679.3 per 100,000 without adjustment for self-selection bias and 261.2 per 100,000 with adjustment. These corresponded to an estimated 9.5% of screen-detected cancers overdiagnosed without adjustment and 3.7% with adjustment for self-selection. CONCLUSIONS: The NHS Breast Screening Programme in England confers at worst modest levels of overdiagnosis.

Urine biomarkers enable pancreatic cancer detection up to 2 years before diagnosis.

The poor prognosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is mainly attributed to late diagnosis. We assessed the predictive performance of our previously reported urine biomarker panel for earlier detection of PDAC (LYVE1, REG1B and TFF1) in prediagnostic samples, alone and in combination with plasma CA19-9. This nested case-control study included 99 PDAC cases with urine samples prospectively collected up to 5 years prior to PDAC diagnosis and 198 matched controls. The samples were obtained from the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS), the Shanghai Men's Health Studies (SMHS) and the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS). The urine biomarkers were measured by ELISA. Plasma CA19-9 was quantified by Luminex. Multiple logistic regression and Wilcoxon rank-sum and Mann-Whitney test were used for analysis. The internal validation approach was applied and the validated AUC estimators are reported on. The algorithm of urinary protein panel, urine creatinine and age named PancRISK, displayed similar AUC as CA19-9 up to 1 year before PDAC diagnosis (AUC = 0.79); however, the combination enhanced the AUCs to 0.89, and showed good discriminative ability (AUC = 0.77) up to 2 years. The combination showed sensitivity (SN) of 72% at 90% specificity (SP), and SP of 59% at 90% SN up to 1 year and 60% SN with 80% SP and 53% SP with 80% SN up to 2 years before PDAC diagnosis. Adding the clinical information on BMI value resulted in the overall improvement in performance of the PancRISK score. When combined with CA19-9, the urinary panel reached a workable model for detecting PDAC cases up to 2 years prior to diagnosis.

Patient outcomes following interval and delayed cytoreductive surgery in advanced ovarian cancer: protocol for a multicenter, international, cohort study (Global Gynaecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative).

BACKGROUND: The Global Gynecological Oncology Surgical Outcomes Collaborative (GO SOAR) has developed a network of gynecological oncology surgeons, surgical departments, and other interested parties that have the long-term ability to collaborate on outcome studies. Presented is the protocol for the GO SOAR2 study. PRIMARY OBJECTIVES: To compare survival following interval and delayed cytoreductive surgery, between delayed cytoreductive surgery and no surgery (chemotherapy alone); and international variations in access to cytoreductive surgery for women with stage III-IV epithelial ovarian cancer. STUDY HYPOTHESES: There is no difference in survival following interval and delayed cytoreductive surgery; there is poorer survival with no surgery compared with delayed cytoreductive surgery; and there are international disparities in prevalent practice and access to cytoreductive surgery in women with stage III-IV epithelial ovarian cancer. TRIAL DESIGN: International, multicenter, mixed-methods cohort study. Participating centers, will review medical charts/electronic records of patients who had been consecutively diagnosed with stage III-IV ovarian cancer between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2021. Qualitative interviews will be conducted to identify factors determining international variations in prevalent practice and access to cytoreductive surgery. MAJOR INCLUSION/EXCLUSION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria include women with stage III-IV epithelial ovarian cancer, undergoing interval (after 3-4 cycles of chemotherapy) or delayed (≥5 cycles of chemotherapy) cytoreductive surgeries or no cytoreductive surgery (≥5 cycles of chemotherapy alone). PRIMARY ENDPOINTS: Overall survival (defined from date of diagnosis to date of death); progression-free survival (defined from date of diagnosis to date of first recurrence); facilitator/barriers to prevalent practice and access to cytoreductive surgery. SAMPLE SIZE: In order to determine whether there is a difference in survival following interval and delayed cytoreductive surgery and no surgery, data will be abstracted from 1000 patients. ESTIMATED DATES FOR COMPLETING ACCRUAL AND PRESENTING RESULTS: It is estimated that recruitment will be completed by 2023, and results published by 2024. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05523804.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID). Objective: To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration. Design, Setting, and Participants: Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022. Exposures: Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Main Outcomes and Measures: Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age. Results: A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months. Conclusions and Relevance: This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Evaluation of transabdominal and transperineal ultrasound-derived prostate specific antigen (PSA) density and clinical utility compared to MRI prostate volumes: A feasibility study.

PURPOSE: To investigate the accuracy of surface-based ultrasound-derived PSA-density (US-PSAD) versus gold-standard MRI-PSAD as a risk-stratification tool. METHODS: Single-centre prospective study of patients undergoing MRI for suspected prostate cancer (PCa). Four combinations of US-volumes were calculated using transperineal (TP) and transabdominal (TA) views, with triplanar measurements to calculate volume and US-PSAD. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to compare US and MRI volumes. Categorical comparison of MRI-PSAD and US-PSAD was performed at PSAD cut-offs <0.15, 0.15-0.20, and >0.20 ng/mL2 to assess agreement with MRI-PSAD risk-stratification decisions. RESULTS: 64 men were investigated, mean age 69 years and PSA 7.0 ng/mL. 36/64 had biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer (18 Gleason 3+3, 18 Gleason ≥3+4). Mean MRI-derived gland volume was 60 mL, compared to 56 mL for TA-US, and 65 mL TP-US. ICC demonstrated good agreement for all US volumes with MRI, with highest agreement for transabdominal US, followed by combined TA/TP volumes. Risk-stratification decisions to biopsy showed concordant agreement between triplanar MRI-PSAD and ultrasound-PSAD in 86-91% and 92-95% at PSAD thresholds of >0.15 ng/mL2 and >0.12 ng/mL2, respectively. Decision to biopsy at threshold >0.12 ng/mL2, demonstrated sensitivity ranges of 81-100%, specificity 85-100%, PPV 86-100% and NPV 83-100%. Transabdominal US provided optimal sensitivity of 100% for this clinical decision, with specificity 85%, and transperineal US provided optimal specificity of 100%, with sensitivity 87%. CONCLUSION: Transperineal-US and combined TA-TP US-derived PSA density values compare well with standard MRI-derived values and could be used to provide accurate PSAD at presentation and inform the need for further investigations.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021.

Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID. Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery. Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study. Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms. Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane. Key Points: Question: What are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021?Findings: Globally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered.Meaning: The substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.

Comparative performance of MRI-derived PRECISE scores and delta-radiomics models for the prediction of prostate cancer progression in patients on active surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the performance of the PRECISE scoring system against several MRI-derived delta-radiomics models for predicting histopathological prostate cancer (PCa) progression in patients on active surveillance (AS). METHODS: The study included AS patients with biopsy-proven PCa with a minimum follow-up of 2 years and at least one repeat targeted biopsy. Histopathological progression was defined as grade group progression from diagnostic biopsy. The control group included patients with both radiologically and histopathologically stable disease. PRECISE scores were applied prospectively by four uro-radiologists with 5-16 years' experience. T2WI- and ADC-derived delta-radiomics features were computed using baseline and latest available MRI scans, with the predictive modelling performed using the parenclitic networks (PN), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, and random forests (RF) algorithms. Standard measures of discrimination and areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) were calculated, with AUCs compared using DeLong's test. RESULTS: The study included 64 patients (27 progressors and 37 non-progressors) with a median follow-up of 46 months. PRECISE scores had the highest specificity (94.7%) and positive predictive value (90.9%), whilst RF had the highest sensitivity (92.6%) and negative predictive value (92.6%) for predicting disease progression. The AUC for PRECISE (84.4%) was non-significantly higher than AUCs of 81.5%, 78.0%, and 80.9% for PN, LASSO regression, and RF, respectively (p = 0.64, 0.43, and 0.57, respectively). No significant differences were observed between AUCs of the three delta-radiomics models (p-value range 0.34-0.77). CONCLUSIONS: PRECISE and delta-radiomics models achieved comparably good performance for predicting PCa progression in AS patients. KEY POINTS: • The observed high specificity and PPV of PRECISE are complemented by the high sensitivity and NPV of delta-radiomics, suggesting a possible synergy between the two image assessment approaches. • The comparable performance of delta-radiomics to PRECISE scores applied by expert readers highlights the prospective use of the former as an objective and standardisable quantitative tool for MRI-guided AS follow-up. • The marginally superior performance of parenclitic networks compared to conventional machine learning algorithms warrants its further use in radiomics research.