Evaluating a novel model of hepatitis B care, Hep B PAST, in the Northern Territory of Australia: results from a prospective, population-based study.

Background: The Northern Territory (NT) has the highest prevalence of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in Australia. The Hep B PAST program aims to improve health outcomes for people living with CHB. Methods: This mixed methods study involves First Nations peoples living in the NT. We used participatory action research principles across three steps: 1. Foundation step: establishing hepatitis B virus (HBV) status and linkage to care; 2. Capacity building: training the health workforce; 3. Supported transition to primary healthcare: implementation of the "Hub and Spoke" model and in-language resources. Analysis occurred at three time points: 1. Pre-Hep B PAST (2018); 2. Foundation step (2020); and 3. Completion of Hep B PAST (2023). Evaluation focuses on four key indicators, the number of people: 1) with documented HBV status; 2) diagnosed with CHB; 3) receiving care; and 4) receiving treatment. Findings: Hep B PAST (2018-23) reached 40,555 people. HBV status was documented in 11% (1192/10,853), 79.2% (26,075/32,915) and 90.8% (28,675/31,588) of people at pre-Hep B PAST, foundation step, and completion respectively. An estimated 99.9% (821/822) of people were diagnosed, 86.3% (709/822) engaged in care, and 24.1% (198/822) on antiviral treatment at completion. CHB prevalence in the study population is 2.6%, decreasing from 6.1% to 0.4% in the pre- and post-vaccination cohorts. Interpretation: Hep B PAST is an effective model of care. Partner health services are exceeding elimination targets. This model could enable other countries to enhance the cascade of care and work towards eliminating HBV. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council.

Unnecessary antibiotic use in men who have sex with men (MSM) with anogenital symptoms attending a sexual health clinic: a retrospective analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the amount of unnecessary antibiotics, in particular ceftriaxone, given to men who have sex with men (MSM) with anogenital symptoms as part of presumptive management in an urban sexual health clinic and examine factors associated with unnecessary ceftriaxone. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of electronic records from all visits involving MSM reporting symptoms of bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) and who received presumptive antibiotics at Sydney Sexual Health Centre. The following variables were extracted: demographic and sexual behaviour data, presenting symptoms, prior STI diagnoses, use of anoscopy, use of point-of-care microscopy, prescriptions of antibiotics and subsequent nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) results for chlamydia and gonorrhoea in all anatomical sites (urethra, pharynx and rectum). We defined unnecessary antibiotic as an agent prescribed to treat an STI organism that was subsequently not detected. RESULTS: Among 1061 visits in this analysis, 41.8% yielded negative NAAT results for both chlamydia and gonorrhoea in all anatomical sites. There were 44.3% of visits which had positive gonorrhoea NAAT result in at least one anatomical site. There were 187 courses of ceftriaxone prescribed in patients who tested negative for gonorrhoea in all anatomical sites and therefore were unnecessary. Unnecessary ceftriaxone prescribing occurred in 50.2% of visits with anorectal symptoms, 19.6% of scrotal symptoms and 7.3% of urethral symptoms. Microscopy was associated with significantly less unnecessary ceftriaxone in urethral but not anorectal or scrotal presentations. In multivariable analysis, the following factors were associated with a higher likelihood of unnecessary ceftriaxone use: anorectal symptoms, scrotal symptoms, gonorrhoea in the preceding year, contact of a bacterial STI and living with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the significant amount of unnecessary ceftriaxone used for STI symptoms in MSM. A new pathway incorporating rapid point-of-care molecular testing in symptomatic patients may improve the precision of antibiotic prescribing and reduce unnecessary use.

"I pity the TB patient": a mixed methods study assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB services in two major Indonesian cities and distilling lessons for the future.

INTRODUCTION: In Indonesia, a country with around 280 million people and the second-highest tuberculosis (TB) incidence rate in the world, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB care needs careful assessment so that future response strategies can be strengthened. We conducted a study comparing TB testing and treatment rates before and during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, and the reasons for any disruptions to care. METHODS: We conducted retrospective secondary data analysis and qualitative interviews in Yogyakarta and Bandung, Indonesia. Routine data on TB testing and treatment were sourced from the national TB information system operated by the Indonesian Ministry of Health. TB testing and treatment outcomes were compared between two time periods: pre-COVID (2018-19); and during COVID-19 (2020-21). In-depth interviews were conducted with patients and health workers to explore their experiences in accessing and providing TB services during the pandemic. RESULTS: There was a 45% (21 937/39 962) reduction in the number of patients tested for TB during the pandemic compared with pre-COVID-19, while the proportion of TB tests returning a positive result increased from 12% (4733/39 962) to 50% (10 945/21 937). The proportion of TB patients completing treatment increased by 2.6% during the pandemic, yet the proportion cured and the number of patients successfully treated both decreased (by 7% and 4.4%, respectively). Our qualitative interviews highlighted several factors influencing TB service access and delivery, including fear of being diagnosed with COVID-19 during TB-related clinic visits, fear of COVID-19 exposure among patients and health workers, healthcare facilities prioritising COVID-19 over other services, and mandatory mobility restrictions affecting both patients and health workers. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted TB testing and treatment outcomes in Bandung and Yogyakarta. Policymakers should consider these findings in designing strategies to ensure TB services are maintained and supported during future health crises.

Changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk over time among people living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk over time among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We used data from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD) and the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD). Five-year ASCVD risk was calculated using the D:A:D equation. Individuals were eligible for inclusion if they were aged ≥18 years, had started ART, had no previous history of ASCVD and had complete ASCVD risk factor data available within the first 5 years of ART initiation. RESULTS: A total of 3368 adults contributed data, 3221 were from TAHOD and 147 were from AHOD. The median age at ART initiation was 36 [IQR 31-43] years for TAHOD participants, and 42 [IQR 35-50] years for AHOD participants. Most TAHOD (70.4%) and AHOD (91.8%) participants were male. Overall, ASCVD risk increased from 0.84% (95% CI 0.81%-0.87%) at ART initiation to 1.34% (95% CI 1.29%-1.39%) after 5 years on ART. After adjusting for traditional and HIV-associated ASCVD risk factors, ASCVD risk increased at a similar rate among sub-populations defined by HIV exposure (heterosexuals, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs), race/ethnicity (Caucasian and Asian) and nadir CD4 at ART initiation (<200 and ≥200 cells/mm3). CONCLUSIONS: These findings emphasize the growing burden of ASCVD risk among PLHIV and the need to develop interventions that are effective across a broad range of HIV sub-populations.

The association between influenza vaccination uptake and influenza and pneumonia-associated deaths in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The influenza mortality burden has remained substantial in the United States (US) despite relatively high levels of influenza vaccine uptake. This has led to questions regarding the effectiveness of the program against this outcome, particularly in the elderly. The aim of this evaluation was to develop and explore a new approach to estimating the population-level effect of influenza vaccination uptake on pneumonia and influenza (P&I) associated deaths. METHODS: Using publicly available data we examined the association between state-level influenza vaccination and all-age P&I associated deaths in the US from the 2013-2014 influenza season to the 2018-2019 season. In the main model, we evaluated influenza vaccine uptake in all those age 6 months and older. We used a mixed-effects regression analysis with generalised least squares estimation to account for within state correlation in P&I mortality. RESULTS: From 2013-2014 through 2018-2019, the total number of all-age P&I related deaths during the influenza seasons was 480,111. The mean overall cumulative influenza vaccine uptake (age 6 months and older) across the states and years considered was 46.7%, with higher uptake (64.8%) observed in those aged ≥ 65 years. We found that overall influenza vaccine uptake (6 months and older) had a statistically significant protective association with the P&I death rate. This translated to a 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.47) per 100,000 population reduction in P&I deaths in the influenza season per 1% increase in overall influenza vaccine uptake. DISCUSSION: These results using a population-level statistical approach provide additional support for the overall effectiveness of the US influenza vaccination program. This reassurance is critical given the importance of ensuring confidence in this life saving program. Future research is needed to expand on our approach using more refined data.

Projected impact of population aging on non-communicable disease burden and costs in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2020-2030.

BACKGROUND: The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20-64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget. METHODS: Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored. RESULTS: The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA's aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Association of socio-demographic characteristics with hypertension awareness, treatment, and control in Bangladesh.

Hypertension has been rapidly growing in Bangladesh. However, there has been limited analysis of differences in the hypertension cascade across socio-demographic groups. This study was a secondary analysis of the 2017-18 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey. Four dichotomous outcome variables - hypertension prevalence, awareness among those with hypertension, treatment among those aware, and control among those treated - were analyzed. The variation of each outcome was assessed across socio-demographic factors. The association between socio-demographic characteristics and outcomes was analyzed using logistic regression. Less than half of the hypertensive individuals were aware of their hypertension (42.5%), and awareness was higher among those who were older, female, of higher household wealth, and living in urban areas. Among those aware, most were receiving treatment (87.4%), and this proportion was higher in older individuals (89.2% among 65 + , 70.4% among 18-24; p < 0.001). One-third of those treated (33.8%) had their blood pressure controlled, and this was higher among younger and more educated individuals. In multivariable models stratified by rural/urban community, most of the aforementioned trends remained with additional differences between communities. Notably, the association of higher education level with treatment odds differed in rural and urban communities (OR 0.34 [95%CI 0.16, 0.75] in rural; OR 2.83 [95%CI 1.04, 7.73] in urban). Efforts to improve hypertension awareness among individuals who are younger, male, of lower household wealth, and in rural areas are required to address disparities in care. Socio-demographic variations in hypertension awareness, treatment, and control must be considered to design targeted interventions for each step of the cascade.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and treating anal pre-cancerous lesions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men living with HIV.

Background: Gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBM) living with HIV have a substantially elevated risk of anal cancer (85 cases per 100,000 person-years vs 1-2 cases per 100,000 person-years in the general population). The precursor to anal cancer is high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). Findings regarding the cost-effectiveness of HSIL screening and treatment in GBM are conflicting. Using recent data on HSIL natural history and treatment effectiveness, we aimed to improve upon earlier models. Methods: We developed a Markov cohort model populated using observational study data and published literature. Our study population was GBM living with HIV aged ≥35 years. We used a lifetime horizon and framed our model on the Australian healthcare perspective. The intervention was anal HSIL screening and treatment. Our primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Findings: Anal cancer incidence was estimated to decline by 44-70% following implementation of annual HSIL screening and treatment. However, for the most cost-effective screening method assessed, the ICER relative to current practice, Australian Dollar (AUD) 135,800 per QALY gained, remained higher than Australia's commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, HSIL screening and treatment had a 20% probability of being cost-effective. When the sensitivity and specificity of HSIL screening were enhanced beyond the limits of current technology, without an increase in the cost of screening, ICERs improved but were still not cost-effective. Cost-effectiveness was achieved with a screening test that had 95% sensitivity, 95% specificity, and cost ≤ AUD 24 per test. Interpretation: Establishing highly sensitive and highly specific HSIL screening methods that cost less than currently available techniques remains a research priority. Funding: No specific funding was received for this analysis.

Weight change with integrase strand transfer inhibitors among virally suppressed Thai people living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: We compared weight changes in virally suppressed people living with HIV (PLWH) switching to integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) with those remaining on an INSTI or non-INSTI regimen. METHODS: PLWH aged ≥18 years with weight measurements available at baseline between 2001 and 2020 were included. Viral suppression was defined as having had a viral load <400 copies/mL for 6 months. Baseline was defined as the time of switching from a non-INSTI to an INSTI regimen whilst virally suppressed (switch group) or the time that viral suppression was achieved (remain groups). Generalized estimating equations adjusted for age, sex and baseline weight were used to model weight changes 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after baseline. RESULTS: A total of 1673 PLWH contributed 1952 episodes of viral suppression-143 (7.3%) episodes were among PLWH who had switched from a non-INSTI to an INSTI, 102 (5.2%) episodes were among PLWH who remained on an INSTI and 1707 (87.4%) episodes were among PLWH who remained on a non-INSTI. PLWH in the switch group had significantly greater weight gain than those in the remain groups at 6, 12 and 18 months after achieving viral suppression. By 24 months, weight change on all regimens started to converge. Tenofovir alafenamide use was not significantly associated with weight gain in adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the mechanisms of weight gain due to INSTI use go beyond their superior efficacy over other antiretrovirals in controlling HIV or the effect of the 'return-to-health' phenomenon. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms of such weight gain.

Physical function limitation among gay and bisexual men aged ≥55years with and without HIV: findings from the Australian Positive and Peers Longevity Evaluation Study (APPLES).

BACKGROUND: As people living with HIV now have a life expectancy approaching that of the general population, clinical care focuses increasingly on the management and prevention of comorbidities and conditions associated with aging. We aimed to assess the prevalence of physical function (PF) limitation among gay and bisexual men (GBM) and determine whether HIV is associated with severe PF limitation in this population. METHODS: We analysed cross-sectional data from GBM aged ≥55years in the Australian Positive and Peers Longevity Evaluation Study who completed a self-administered survey on health and lifestyle factors. PF was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study-Physical Functioning scale. Factors associated with severe PF limitation were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 381 men: 186 without HIV and 195 with HIV. Median age was 64.3years for GBM without HIV and 62.1years for GBM with HIV. Compared with men without HIV, those with HIV had higher proportions of severe (13.3% vs 8.1%) and moderate-to-severe (26.7% vs 24.2%) PF limitation. Severe PF limitation commonly involved difficulty with vigorous activity (95% with severe PF limitation described being limited a lot), climbing several flights of stairs (68.4% limited a lot), bending, kneeling or stooping (60.5% limited a lot), and walking 1km (55.0% limited a lot). In a model adjusted for age, body mass index, typical duration of physical activity, psychological distress, and number of comorbidities, we found a significant association between HIV and severe PF limitation (adjusted odds ratio 3.3 vs not having HIV, 95% confidence interval 1.3-8.7). CONCLUSIONS: The biological mechanisms underlying this association require further investigation, particularly given the growing age of the HIV population and inevitable increase in the burden of PF limitation.

Virological failure and treatment switch after ART initiation among people living with HIV with and without routine viral load monitoring in Asia.

INTRODUCTION: Viral load (VL) testing is still challenging to monitor treatment responses of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV treatment programme in Asia. We assessed the association between routine VL testing and virological failure (VF) and determine factors associated with switching to second-line regimen. METHODS: Among 21 sites from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD), people living with HIV (PLHIV) aged ≥18 years initiating ART from 2003 to 2021 were included. We calculated the average number of VL tests per patient per year between the date of ART initiation and the most recent visit. If the median average number of VL tests was ≥ 0.80 per patient per year, the site was classified as a routine VL site. A site with a median < 0.80 was classified into the non-routine VL sites. VF was defined as VL ≥1000 copies/ml during first-line therapy. Factors associated with VF were analysed using generalized estimating equations with Poisson distribution. RESULTS: Of 6277 PLHIV starting ART after 2003, 3030 (48%) were from 11 routine VL testing sites and 3247 (52%) were from 10 non-routine VL testing sites. The median follow-up was 9 years (IQR 5-13). The median age was 35 (30-42) years; 68% were male and 5729 (91%) started non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen. The median pre-ART CD4 count in PLHIV from routine VL sites was lower compared to non-routine VL sites (144 vs. 156 cells/mm3 , p <0.001). Overall, 1021 subsequent VF at a rate of 2.15 (95% CI 2.02-2.29) per 100 person-years (PY). VF was more frequent at non-routine VL sites (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2.85 [95% CI 2.27-3.59]) compared to routine VL sites. Other factors associated with an increased rate of VF were age <50 years and CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 . A total of 817 (13%) patients switched to second-line regimen at a rate of 1.44 (95% CI 1.35-1.54) per 100 PY. PLHIV at routine VL monitoring sites were at higher risk of switching than those at non-routine VL sites (adjusted sub-hazard ratio 1.78 95% CI [1.17-2.71]). CONCLUSIONS: PLHIV from non-routine VL sites had a higher incidence of persistent VF and a low switching regimen rate, reflecting possible under-utilized VL testing.

Severe Recurrent Bacterial Pneumonia Among Children Living With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial pneumonia imparts a major morbidity and mortality burden on children living with HIV, yet effective prevention and treatment options are underutilized. We explored clinical factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia among children living with HIV. METHODS: Children enrolled in the TREAT Asia Pediatric HIV Observational Database were included if they started antiretroviral therapy (ART) on or after January 1st, 2008. Factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were assessed using competing-risk regression. RESULTS: A total of 3,944 children were included in the analysis; 136 cases of severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were reported at a rate of 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.5-7.7] events per 1,000 patient-years. Clinical factors associated with severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia were younger age [adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio (aHR): 4.4 for <5 years versus ≥10 years, 95% CI: 2.2-8.4, P < 0.001], lower weight-for-age z-score (aHR: 1.5 for <-3.0 versus >-2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3, P = 0.024), pre-ART diagnosis of severe recurrent bacterial pneumonia (aHR: 4.0 versus no pre-ART diagnosis, 95% CI: 2.7-5.8, P < 0.001), past diagnosis of symptomatic lymphoid interstitial pneumonitis or chronic HIV-associated lung disease, including bronchiectasis (aHR: 4.8 versus no past diagnosis, 95% CI: 2.8-8.4, P < 0.001), low CD4% (aHR: 3.5 for <10% versus ≥25%, 95% CI: 1.9-6.4, P < 0.001) and detectable HIV viral load (aHR: 2.6 versus undetectable, 95% CI: 1.2-5.9, P = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Children <10-years-old and those with low weight-for-age, a history of respiratory illness, low CD4% or poorly controlled HIV are likely to gain the greatest benefit from targeted prevention and treatment programs to reduce the burden of bacterial pneumonia in children living with HIV.

Recent Trends in Adult and Pediatric Antiretroviral Therapy Monitoring and Failure.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recent trends in the monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and detection of ART failure in adult and pediatric HIV clinics. METHODS: We used data collected from 21 adult and 17 pediatric sites (across 13 and 6 countries/territories, respectively) in the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS - Asia-Pacific cohort. ART failure was defined as viral, immune, or clinical consistent with WHO guidelines. RESULTS: A total of 8567 adults and 6149 children contributed data. Frequency of CD4 count monitoring declined between 2010 and 2019 among adult sites (from 1.93 to 1.06 tests/person per year, a 45.1% decline) and pediatric sites (from 2.16 to 0.86 testsperson per year, a 60.2% decline), whereas rates of viral load monitoring remained relatively stable. The proportion of adult and pediatric treatment failure detected as immune failure declined (from 73.4% to 50.0% and from 45.8% to 23.1%, respectively), whereas the proportion of failure detected as viral failure increased (from 7.8% to 25.0% and from 45.8% to 76.9%, respectively). The proportion of ART failure detected as clinical failure remained stable among adult and pediatric sites. The largest shifts in ART monitoring and failure type occurred in lower middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Although viral failure in our Asian cohort now comprises a larger portion of ART failure than in prior years, the diagnostic characteristics of immune and clinical failure, and recommendations on their management, remain important inclusions for regional ART guidelines.

Supply-side readiness to deliver HIV testing and treatment services in Indonesia: Going the last mile to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV.

INTRODUCTION: Despite national efforts to integrate Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) of HIV services into antenatal care in Indonesia, the rate of mother-to-child transmission of HIV remains the highest in the world. A range of barriers to uptake and long-term engagement in care have been identified, but far less is known about health system preparedness to deliver PMTCT of HIV services. This study explored supply-side barriers to the delivery of PMTCT services in Indonesia and whether these factors are associated with the uptake of antenatal HIV testing. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An ecological analysis was undertaken, linking data from the World Bank Quality Service and Delivery Survey (2016) with routine data from Indonesia's HIV and AIDS case surveillance system and district health profile reports (2016). Supply-side readiness scores-generated from a readiness index that measures overall structural capacity and is often used as proxy for quality of care-were adapted from the WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment and presented by sector and geographic area. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis was used to explore factors associated with the uptake of antenatal HIV testing in public facilities. RESULTS: In general, public facilities scored more highly in most inputs compared to private facilities. Facilities located in urban areas also scored more highly in the majority of inputs compared to ones in rural areas. Readiness scores were lowest for PMTCT services compared to Antenatal Care and HIV Care and Support services, especially for the availability of medicines such as zidovudine and nevirapine. The national composite readiness score for PMTCT was only 0.13 (based on a maximum score of 1) with a composite score of 0.21 for public facilities and 0.06 for private facilities. The multivariate analysis shows that the proportion of pregnant women tested for HIV was more likely to be greater than or equal to 10% in facilities with a higher readiness score and a higher number of trained counsellors available, and less likely in facilities located outside of Java-Bali and in facilities supporting a higher number of village midwives. DISCUSSION: Despite targeted efforts by the Indonesian government and multinational agencies, significant gaps exist in the delivery of PMTCT that compromise the standard of care delivered in Indonesia. Future strategies should focus on improving the availability of tests and treatment, especially in the private sector and in rural areas.