Modelling the effects of climate and land-cover changes on the potential distribution and landscape connectivity of three earth snakes (Genus Conopsis, Günther 1858) in central Mexico.

Anthropogenic land use and climate change are the greatest threats to biodiversity, especially for many globally endangered reptile species. Earth snakes (Conopsis spp.) are a poorly studied group endemic to Mexico. They have limited dispersal abilities and specialized niches, making them particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to assess how future climate and land-cover change scenarios might influence the distribution and habitat connectivity of three earth snakes: Conopsis biserialis (Taylor and Smith), C. lineata (Kennicott), and C. nasus (Günther). Two climate models, CNRM-CM5 (CN) and MPI-ESM-LR (MP) (Representative Concentration Pathway 85), were explored with ENMeval Maxent modelling. Important SDM environmental variables and environmental niche overlap between species were also examined. We found that C. biserialis and C. lineata were restricted by maximum temperatures whereas C. nasus was restricted by minimum ones and was more tolerant to arid vegetation. C. biserialis and C. lineata were primarily distributed in the valleys and mountains of the highlands of the TMBV, while C. nasus was mainly distributed in the Altiplano Sur (Zacatecano-Potosino). C. lineata had the smallest potential distribution and suffered the greatest contraction in the future whereas C. nasus was the least affected species in future scenarios. The Sierra de las Cruces and the Sierra Chichinautzin were identified as very important areas for connectivity. Our results suggest that C. lineata may be the most vulnerable of the three species to anthropogenic and climate changes whereas C. nasus seems to be less affected by global warming than the other species.

Potential Distribution and Connectivity for Two Plethodontid Salamanders: Conservation Areas and Landscape Corridors for Two Endemic Species of México and Guatemala.

Habitat loss is one of the most important threats to biodiversity; it alters the habitat connectivity of species and is among the main causes of the global amphibian extinction crisis. Identifying the potential areas of distribution and connectivity of species is of the utmost importance so that informed decisions can be made for the conservation of vulnerable amphibian populations. In this study, we performed species distribution models and used circuit theory to model omnidirectional connectivity for two plethodontid salamanders of conservation concern distributed in the forests of Chiapas, Mexico, and Guatemala (Bolitoglossa franklini and Bolitoglossa lincolni). Potential distribution maps show an affinity for well-preserved montane forests for both species. Likewise, we found that the niches of the species are not similar. The connectivity models show that the main areas of connectivity are in the Meseta Central de Chiapas, Sierra Madre de Chiapas, and the Cordillera Volcánica Guatemalense, in this last range, important areas of connectivity were located, as well as least-cost paths and barriers to the movement of both species. We identified that important areas of climatic suitability and connectivity are not within the protected natural areas and may be threatened by the increasing influence of anthropogenic activities. The results of our study show the importance of preserving the regional forests to ensure the persistence of species with arboreal habits and high sensitivity to habitat transformation, as well as to recognize and prioritize potential areas for management and protection in both southern Mexico and Guatemala.