Historical reconstruction of inaccessibility status in Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Borno and Yobe States, Nigeria, 2010-2020.

Introduction: ultimately detected in 2016, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission continued undetected after 2011 in Northeast Nigeria Borno and Yobe States in security-compromised areas, inaccessible due to armed insurgency. Varying inaccessibility prevented children aged <5 years in these areas from polio vaccination interventions and surveillance, while massive population displacements occurred. We examined progress in access over time to provide data supporting a very low probability of undetected WPV circulation within remaining trapped populations after 2016. Methods: to assess the extent of inaccessibility in security-compromised areas, we obtained empirical historical data in 2020 on a quarterly and annual basis from relevant polio eradication staff for the period 2010-2020. The extent of access to areas for immunization by recall was compared to geospatial data from vaccinator tracking. Population estimates over time in security-compromised areas were extracted from satellite imagery. We compared the historical access data from staff with tracking and population esimates. Results: access varied during 2010-2020, with inaccessibility peaking during 2014-2016. We observed concurrent patterns between historical recalled data on inaccessibility and contemporaneous satellite imagery on population displacements, which increased confidence in the quality of recalled data. Conclusion: staff-recalled access was consistent with vaccinator tracking and satellite imagery of population displacments. Despite variability in inaccessibility over time, innovative immunization initiatives were implemented as access allowed and surveillance initiatives were initiated to search for poliovirus transmission. Along with escape and liberation of residents by the military in some geographic areas, these initiatives resulted in a massive reduction in the size of the unvaccinated population remaining resident.

Mortality Among Confirmed Lassa Fever Cases During the 2015-2016 Outbreak in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: To determine factors associated with mortality among confirmed Lassa fever cases. METHODS: We reviewed line lists and clinical records of laboratory-confirmed cases of Lassa fever during the 2016 outbreak in Nigeria to determine factors associated with mortality. We activated an incident command system to coordinate response. RESULTS: We documented 47 cases, 28 of whom died (case fatality rate [CFR] = 59.6%; mean age 31.4 years; SD = ±18.4 years). The youngest and the oldest were the most likely to die, with 100% mortality in those aged 5 years or younger and those aged 55 years or older. Patients who commenced ribavirin were more likely to survive (odds ratio [OR] = 0.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03, 0.50). Fatality rates went from 100% (wave 1) through 69% (wave 2) to 31% (wave 3; χ2 for linear trend: P < .01). Patients admitted to a health care center before incident command system activation were more likely to die (OR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.1, 17.6). The only pregnant patient in the study died postpartum. CONCLUSIONS: Effective, coordinated response reduces mortality from public health events. Attention to vulnerable groups during disasters is essential. Public Health Implications. Activating an incident command system improves the outcome of disasters in resource-constrained settings.