Getting it right when budgets are tight: Using optimal expansion pathways to prioritize responses to concentrated and mixed HIV epidemics.

BACKGROUND: Prioritizing investments across health interventions is complicated by the nonlinear relationship between intervention coverage and epidemiological outcomes. It can be difficult for countries to know which interventions to prioritize for greatest epidemiological impact, particularly when budgets are uncertain. METHODS: We examined four case studies of HIV epidemics in diverse settings, each with different characteristics. These case studies were based on public data available for Belarus, Peru, Togo, and Myanmar. The Optima HIV model and software package was used to estimate the optimal distribution of resources across interventions associated with a range of budget envelopes. We constructed "investment staircases", a useful tool for understanding investment priorities. These were used to estimate the best attainable cost-effectiveness of the response at each investment level. FINDINGS: We find that when budgets are very limited, the optimal HIV response consists of a smaller number of 'core' interventions. As budgets increase, those core interventions should first be scaled up, and then new interventions introduced. We estimate that the cost-effectiveness of HIV programming decreases as investment levels increase, but that the overall cost-effectiveness remains below GDP per capita. SIGNIFICANCE: It is important for HIV programming to respond effectively to the overall level of funding availability. The analytic tools presented here can help to guide program planners understand the most cost-effective HIV responses and plan for an uncertain future.

Evolution of the health sector response to HIV in Myanmar: progress, challenges and the way forward.

Critical building blocks for the response to HIV were made until 2012 despite a series of political, social and financial challenges. A rapid increase of HIV service coverage was observed from 2012 to 2015 through collaborative efforts of government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Government facilities, in particular, demonstrated their capacity to expand services for antiretroviral therapy (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV, tuberculosis and HIV co-infection and methadone-maintenance therapy (MMT). After nearly three decades into the response to HIV, Myanmar has adopted strategies to provide the right interventions to the right people in the right places to maximise impact and cost efficiency. In particular, the country is now using strategic information to classify areas into high-, medium- and low-HIV burden and risk of new infections for geographical prioritisation - as HIV remains concentrated among key population (KP) groups in specific geographical areas. Ways forward include: •Addressing structural barriers for KP to access services, and identifying and targeting KPs at higher risk;•Strengthening the network of public facilities, NGOs and general practitioners and introducing a case management approach to assist KPs and other clients with unknown HIV status, HIV-negative clients and newly diagnosed clients to access the health services across the continuum to increase the number of people testing for HIV and to reduce loss to follow-up in both prevention and treatment;•Increasing the availability of HIV testing and counselling services for KPs, clients of female sex workers (FSW), and other populations at risk, and raising the demand for timely testing including expansion of outreach and client-initiated voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) services;•Monitoring and maximising retention from HIV diagnosis to ART initiation and expanding quality HIV laboratory services, especially viral load;•Prioritising integration of HIV and related services in high-burden areas;•Increasing the proportion of PLHIV receiving testing and treatment at public facilities by improving human resources and increasing public facilities providing these services to ensure sustainability;•Obtaining intelligence and tailoring services in hard-to-reach/under-served areas;•Strengthening planning, monitoring, and coordination capacity especially at regional levels.