Integrated analysis of patient networks and plasmid genomes reveals a regional, multi-species outbreak of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales carrying both blaIMP and mcr-9 genes.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) are challenging in healthcare, with resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics. This study describes the emergence of IMP-encoding CPE amongst diverse Enterobacterales species between 2016 and 2019 across a London regional network. METHODS: We performed a network analysis of patient pathways, using electronic health records, to identify contacts between IMP-encoding CPE positive patients. Genomes of IMP-encoding CPE isolates were overlayed with patient contacts to imply potential transmission events. RESULTS: Genomic analysis of 84 Enterobacterales isolates revealed diverse species (predominantly Klebsiella spp, Enterobacter spp, E. coli); 86% (72/84) harboured an IncHI2 plasmid carrying blaIMP and colistin resistance gene mcr-9 (68/72). Phylogenetic analysis of IncHI2 plasmids identified three lineages showing significant association with patient contacts and movements between four hospital sites and across medical specialities, which was missed on initial investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Combined, our patient network and plasmid analyses demonstrate an interspecies, plasmid-mediated outbreak of blaIMPCPE, which remained unidentified during standard investigations. With DNA sequencing and multi-modal data incorporation, the outbreak investigation approach proposed here provides a framework for real-time identification of key factors causing pathogen spread. Plasmid-level outbreak analysis reveals that resistance spread may be wider than suspected, allowing more interventions to stop transmission within hospital networks.

Factors associated with an increased risk of developing pneumonia during acute ischemic stroke hospitalization.

Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is a common complication of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). This single-center retrospective observational study aimed to identify factors associated with SAP and predictors of poor outcomes in hospitalized patients with AIS. The study included patients admitted to Chumphon Khet Udomsakdi Hospital in Thailand within 7 days of the onset of AIS between July 2019 and July 2020. The patients were divided according to whether they were diagnosed with SAP during hospitalization into a pneumonia group and a non-pneumonia (control) group. Factors associated with SAP were identified. After 3 months, the patients with AIS were divided into those with a poor outcome (modified Rankin scale [mRS] score ≥4) and those with a non-poor outcome (mRS score <4). Factors associated with a poor outcome were sought. During the study period, 342 patients (mean age 65 years, 61% men) were admitted with AIS, of whom 54 (15.8%) developed SAP. Multivariate analysis identified a failed water-swallowing test (WST; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 87.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 21.00-364.51, p<0.001), endotracheal intubation with invasive mechanical ventilation (aOR 12.38, 95% CI 2.44-101.35, p = 0.001), and a retained Foley catheter (aOR 5.67, 95% CI 2.03-15.83, p = 0.001) to be associated with SAP. Of the 342 patients, 112 (32.7%) had a poor outcome at 3 months, predictors of which included having hypertension as a comorbidity (aOR 2.87, 95% CI 1.18-6.98, p = 0.020), a pre-stroke mRS score ≥2 (aOR 4.53, 95% CI 1.50-12.72, p = 0.007), an initial Barthel Index score <40 (aOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.57-7.16, p = 0.002), a failed WST (aOR 5.04, 95% CI 2.00-12.74, p = 0.001), and brain edema (aOR 20.67, 95% CI 2.10-203.26, p = 0.009). This study emphasized the association of SAP with a failed WST, endotracheal intubation with invasive mechanical ventilation, and a retained Foley catheter but also identified hypertension, a pre-stroke mRS score ≥2, an initial BI score <40, a failed WST, and brain edema as predictors of a poor outcome for patients 3 months after AIS.

Characteristics and genomic epidemiology of colistin-resistant Enterobacterales from farmers, swine, and hospitalized patients in Thailand, 2014-2017.

BACKGROUND: Colistin is one of the last resort therapeutic options for treating carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales, which are resistant to a broad range of beta-lactam antibiotics. However, the increased use of colistin in clinical and livestock farming settings in Thailand and China, has led to the inevitable emergence of colistin resistance. To better understand the rise of colistin-resistant strains in each of these settings, we characterized colistin-resistant Enterobacterales isolated from farmers, swine, and hospitalized patients in Thailand. METHODS: Enterobacterales were isolated from 149 stool samples or rectal swabs collected from farmers, pigs, and hospitalized patients in Thailand between November 2014-December 2017. Confirmed colistin-resistant isolates were sequenced. Genomic analyses included species identification, multilocus sequence typing, and detection of antimicrobial resistance determinants and plasmids. RESULTS: The overall colistin-resistant Enterobacterales colonization rate was 26.2% (n = 39/149). The plasmid-mediated colistin-resistance gene (mcr) was detected in all 25 Escherichia coli isolates and 9 of 14 (64.3%) Klebsiella spp. isolates. Five novel mcr allelic variants were also identified: mcr-2.3, mcr-3.21, mcr-3.22, mcr-3.23, and mcr-3.24, that were only detected in E. coli and Klebsiella spp. isolates from farmed pigs. CONCLUSION: Our data confirmed the presence of colistin-resistance genes in combination with extended spectrum beta-lactamase genes in bacterial isolates from farmers, swine, and patients in Thailand. Differences between the colistin-resistance mechanisms of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in hospitalized patients were observed, as expected. Additionally, we identified mobile colistin-resistance mcr-1.1 genes from swine and patient isolates belonging to plasmids of the same incompatibility group. This supported the possibility that horizontal transmission of bacterial strains or plasmid-mediated colistin-resistance genes occurs between humans and swine.

Determinants of urinary tract infection in hospitalized patients with acute ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Urinary tract infection (UTI) is a common post-acute ischemic stroke (AIS) complication. We assessed the incidence, determinant factors, infection characteristics, post-stroke complications, and outcomes of hospitalized AIS patients with UTI. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included AIS patients admitted within 7 days of stroke onset. The patients were divided into the UTI group and the non-UTI (control) group. Clinical data were collected and compared between the groups. RESULTS: There were 342 AIS patients (31 with UTIs and 311 controls). The multivariate analysis showed that an initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of ≥ 15 (odds ratio [OR] 5.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-18.72) and Foley catheter retention (OR 14.10, 95% CI 3.25-61.28) were risk factors for UTI, whereas smoking (OR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01-0.50), an initial systolic blood pressure (SBP) of > 120 mmHg (OR 0.06, 95% CI 0.01-0.31), and statin use (OR 0.02, 95% CI 0.0006-0.42) were protective factors. Twenty cases (64.5%) were community-acquired and 11 cases (35.3%) were hospital-acquired. Ten patients (32.3%) had catheter-associated UTIs. The most common pathogen was Escherichia coli (13 patients, 41.9%). Post-stroke complications were significantly more common in the UTI group, including pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis, brain edema, seizure, symptomatic hemorrhagic transformation, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation with a rapid ventricular response, acute kidney injury, and hyponatremia. The median length of stay (LOS) in the UTI group was 12 days versus 3 days in the control group (p < 0.001). The median 3-month modified Rankin Scale score was higher (5 in UTI and 2 in control; p < 0.001) and the median 3-month Barthel Index was lower (0 in UTI and 100 in control; p < 0.001) in the UTI group than in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors for post-AIS UTI included severe stroke (NIHSS score ≥ 15) and urethral catheter indwelling. An initial SBP of > 120 mmHg and statin use were protective factors. The UTI group had significantly worse post-stroke complications, a longer LOS, and worse 3-month outcomes. Smoking was protective, which requires further investigation.

Efficacy of Pneumococcal Vaccine on Otitis Media: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of the pneumococcal vaccine (PCV) toward the surgical management and complications of otitis media. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus, and clinicaltrial.gov. REVIEW METHODS: A systematic search was performed using a combination of keywords and standardized terms about PCV and surgical management or complications of otitis media. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, studies were screened by 3 independent reviewers. Risk of bias assessment, followed by meta-analysis in only randomized-controlled trials was conducted. Vaccine efficacy (VE) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported. RESULTS: Of the 2649 abstracts reviewed, 27 studies were included in the qualitative analysis and were categorized into 6 outcomes: tympanostomy tube insertion, otitis media with effusion (OME), mastoiditis, spontaneous tympanic membrane (TM) perforation, recurrent acute otitis media (AOM), and severe AOM. Fifteen studies were included in the meta-analysis to evaluate the rate of tympanostomy tube insertion, OME, and recurrent AOM. PCV was significantly more effective in lowering the rate of tympanostomy tube insertion (VE, 22.2%; 95% CI, 14.6-29.8) and recurrent AOM (VE, 10.06%; 95% CI, 7.46-12.65) when compared with the control group, with no significant difference in reducing the incidence of OME. The qualitative analysis revealed that PCV had efficacy in preventing severe AOM and spontaneous TM perforation but the effect on mastoiditis remained unclear. CONCLUSION: The PCV was effective in reducing the rate of tympanostomy tube insertion and the incidence of recurrent AOM with a nonsignificant effect in preventing OME in children.

The epidemiology and burden of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder, multiple sclerosis, and MOG antibody-associated disease in a province in Thailand: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system inflammatory demyelinating diseases (CNSIDDs) have notable interracial heterogeneity. The epidemiology of CNSIDDs in Thailand, a mainland Southeast Asian country, is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine the cumulative incidence, point prevalence, and disease burden of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and other CNSIDDs in Thailand using population-based data of Chumphon. METHODS: Searching for CNSIDD patients at a public secondary care hospital in Chumphon, the only neurology center in the province, from January 2016 to December 2021 was implemented using relevant ICD-10-CM codes. All diagnoses were individually ascertained by a retrospective chart review. Cumulative incidence, point prevalence, attack rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated. RESULTS: Aquaporin 4-IgG-positive NMOSD was the most prevalent CNSIDD in the Thai population at 3.08 (1.76-5.38) per 100,000 persons. The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) followed at 0.77 (0.26-2.26) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) at 0.51(0.14-1.87) per 100,000 adults. In the pediatric population, the incidence of acute disseminated encephalomyelitis was 0.28 (0.08-1.02) per 100,000 persons/year. Among other idiopathic demyelinating diseases, idiopathic optic neuritis had the highest incidence at 0.58 (0.24-0.92) per 100,000 persons/year, followed by acute transverse myelitis at 0.44 (0.14-0.74). Idiopathic demyelinating brainstem syndrome was also observed at 0.04 (0.01-0.25) per 100,000 persons/year. Although most had a fair recovery, disability was worst among NMOSD patients with DALYs of 3.61 (3.00-4.36) years per 100,000 persons. Mortality rate was the highest in NMOSD as well. CONCLUSION: CNSIDDs are rare diseases in Thailand. The prevalence is comparable to that of East Asian populations. A nationwide CNSIDDs registry would better elaborate the epidemiology of these diseases.

Clinical and laboratory features in patients with positive syphilis serology presenting with acute ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Neurosyphilis (NS) can lead to acute ischemic stroke (AIS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA). We compared the clinical characteristics and laboratory features among AIS and TIA patients who were syphilis-seronegative (control group) or had latent syphilis (LS) or NS to evaluate their stroke outcome. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted on patients who had recently suffered AIS or TIA. After serological syphilis screening, clinical and laboratory data were collected, and brain imaging and spinal tap (serologically syphilis-positive patients only) were performed. Stroke outcome was re-evaluated approximately three months later. RESULTS: The 344 enrolled patients were divided into three groups: control group (83.7%), LS (13.1%), and NS (3.2%). A multivariate analysis revealed: 1) age of ≥ 70 years, generalized brain atrophy via imaging, and alopecia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.635, 2.415, and 13.264, respectively) were significantly associated with LS vs controls; 2) age of ≥ 70 years (AOR = 14.633) was significantly associated with NS vs controls; and 3) the proportion of patients with dysarthria was significantly lower (AOR = 0.154) in the NS group than in the LS group. Regarding the NS patient cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) profile, only 2/11 cases had positive CSF-Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL) test results; the other nine cases were diagnosed from elevated white blood cell counts or protein levels combined with positive CSF fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption (FTA-ABS) test results. Regarding disability, the initial modified Rankin scale (mRS) score was lower in the control group than in the NS group (p = 0.022). At 3 months post-stroke, the mRS score had significantly decreased in the control (p < 0.001) and LS (p = 0.001) groups. Regarding activities of daily living, the 3-month Barthel Index (BI) score was significantly higher in control patients than in LS (p = 0.030) or NS (p = 0.002) patients. Additionally, the 3-month BI score was significantly increased in the control (p < 0.001) and LS (p = 0.001) groups. CONCLUSIONS: Because syphilis was detected in many AIS and TIA patients, especially those aged ≥ 70 years, routine serological syphilis screening may be warranted in this population. Patients with syphilitic infection had worse stroke outcomes compared with NS patients.

Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The public health impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. METHODS: Using a mathematical model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. RESULTS: The impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R = 1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalization) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. CONCLUSIONS: Advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focused on hospitalized-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI: 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI: 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI: 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI: 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI: 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI: 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.

Risk predictors of progression to severe disease during the febrile phase of dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The ability to accurately predict early progression of dengue to severe disease is crucial for patient triage and clinical management. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found significant heterogeneity in predictors of severe disease due to large variation in these factors during the time course of the illness. We aimed to identify factors associated with progression to severe dengue disease that are detectable specifically in the febrile phase. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors identifiable during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease defined according to WHO criteria. Eight medical databases were searched for studies published from Jan 1, 1997, to Jan 31, 2020. Original clinical studies in English assessing the association of factors detected during the febrile phase with progression to severe dengue were selected and assessed by three reviewers, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. Meta-analyses were done using random-effects models to estimate pooled effect sizes. Only predictors reported in at least four studies were included in the meta-analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistics, and publication bias was assessed by Egger's test. We did subgroup analyses of studies with children and adults. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018093363. FINDINGS: Of 6643 studies identified, 150 articles were included in the systematic review, and 122 articles comprising 25 potential predictors were included in the meta-analyses. Female patients had a higher risk of severe dengue than male patients in the main analysis (2674 [16·2%] of 16 481 vs 3052 [10·5%] of 29 142; odds ratio [OR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·01-1·26) but not in the subgroup analysis of studies with children. Pre-existing comorbidities associated with severe disease were diabetes (135 [31·3%] of 431 with vs 868 [16·0%] of 5421 without; crude OR 4·38 [2·58-7·43]), hypertension (240 [35·0%] of 685 vs 763 [20·6%] of 3695; 2·19 [1·36-3·53]), renal disease (44 [45·8%] of 96 vs 271 [16·0%] of 1690; 4·67 [2·21-9·88]), and cardiovascular disease (nine [23·1%] of 39 vs 155 [8·6%] of 1793; 2·79 [1·04-7·50]). Clinical features during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease were vomiting (329 [13·5%] of 2432 with vs 258 [6·8%] of 3797 without; 2·25 [1·87-2·71]), abdominal pain and tenderness (321 [17·7%] of 1814 vs 435 [8·1%] of 5357; 1·92 [1·35-2·74]), spontaneous or mucosal bleeding (147 [17·9%] of 822 vs 676 [10·8%] of 6235; 1·57 [1·13-2·19]), and the presence of clinical fluid accumulation (40 [42·1%] of 95 vs 212 [14·9%] of 1425; 4·61 [2·29-9·26]). During the first 4 days of illness, platelet count was lower (standardised mean difference -0·34 [95% CI -0·54 to -0·15]), serum albumin was lower (-0·5 [-0·86 to -0·15]), and aminotransferase concentrations were higher (aspartate aminotransferase [AST] 1·06 [0·54 to 1·57] and alanine aminotransferase [ALT] 0·73 [0·36 to 1·09]) among individuals who progressed to severe disease. Dengue virus serotype 2 was associated with severe disease in children. Secondary infections (vs primary infections) were also associated with severe disease (1682 [11·8%] of 14 252 with vs 507 [5·2%] of 9660 without; OR 2·26 [95% CI 1·65-3·09]). Although the included studies had a moderate to high risk of bias in terms of study confounding, the risk of bias was low to moderate in other domains. Heterogeneity of the pooled results varied from low to high on different factors. INTERPRETATION: This analysis supports monitoring of the warning signs described in the 2009 WHO guidelines on dengue. In addition, testing for infecting serotype and monitoring platelet count and serum albumin, AST, and ALT concentrations during the febrile phase of illness could improve the early prediction of severe dengue. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors, and Royal Thai Government.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27-77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49-91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12-48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

Genomic and clinical characterisation of multidrug-resistant carbapenemase-producing ST231 and ST16 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates colonising patients at Siriraj hospital, Bangkok, Thailand from 2015 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Infections caused by carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) have continually grown as a global public health threat, with significant mortality rates observed across the world. We examined the clinical data from patients with CPE infections and their outcomes, concentrating on Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates. We analysed the clinical information, performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and conducted molecular epidemiological and genomic analyses on the isolates to identify patterns in the data. METHODS: The clinical characteristics of 33 hospitalised patients with confirmed CPE, including patient-related factors associated with the development of CPE infections, were examined. Patients were divided according to whether they were "colonised" or "infected" with CPE and by the timing and frequency of their rectal swab collections, from which 45 swabs were randomly selected for analysis. CPE isolates were purified, and antimicrobial susceptibility tests performed. Whole genome sequences of these isolates were determined and analysed to compute bacterial multilocus sequence types and plasmid replicon types, infer phylogenetic relationships, and identify antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes. RESULTS: Altogether, 88.9% (40/45) of the CPE isolates were K. pneumoniae. The most abundant carbapenemase gene family in the K. pneumoniae isolates (33/39) was blaOXA-232, with blaNDM-1 additionally identified in 19 of them. All CPE isolates carrying either blaOXA-232 or blaNDM-1 were resistant to meropenem, but only 40 from 45 were susceptible to colistin. Among the CPE-infected patients (n = 18) and CPE-colonised patients who developed CPE infections during the study (n = 3), all but one received standard colistin-based combination therapy. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the polyclonal spread of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae (CPKP) within the patient population, with the following two major subclades identified: ST16 (n = 15) and ST231 (n = 14). CPKP-ST231 had the highest virulence score of 4 and was associated with primary bacteraemia. The siderophores yersiniabactin and aerobactin, considered to be important virulence factors, were only identified in the CPKP-ST231 genomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study has revealed the genomic features of colonising CPE isolates, focusing on antimicrobial resistance and virulence determinants. This type of multi-layered analysis can be further exploited in Thailand and elsewhere to modify the regimes used for empirical antibiotic treatment and improve the management strategies for CPE infections in hospitalised patients.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. METHODS: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. RESULTS: School closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic.

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that Rt was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment.

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic was declared a Global Pandemic by WHO on 11 March 2020. By 24 March 2020, over 440,000 cases and almost 20,000 deaths had been reported worldwide. In response to the fast-growing epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, Hubei, China imposed strict social distancing in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 followed closely by similar measures in other provinces. These interventions have impacted economic productivity in China, and the ability of the Chinese economy to resume without restarting the epidemic was not clear. Methods: Using daily reported cases from mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, we estimated transmissibility over time and compared it to daily within-city movement, as a proxy for economic activity. Results: Initially, within-city movement and transmission were very strongly correlated in the five mainland provinces most affected by the epidemic and Beijing. However, that correlation decreased rapidly after the initial sharp fall in transmissibility. In general, towards the end of the study period, the correlation was no longer apparent, despite substantial increases in within-city movement. A similar analysis for Hong Kong shows that intermediate levels of local activity were maintained while avoiding a large outbreak. At the very end of the study period, when China began to experience the re-introduction of a small number of cases from Europe and the United States, there is an apparent up-tick in transmission. Conclusions: Although these results do not preclude future substantial increases in incidence, they suggest that after very intense social distancing (which resulted in containment), China successfully exited its lockdown to some degree. Elsewhere, movement data are being used as proxies for economic activity to assess the impact of interventions. The results presented here illustrate how the eventual decorrelation between transmission and movement is likely a key feature of successful COVID-19 exit strategies.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.

Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK.

Background: Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods: Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths. Results: We show that there was a substantial overall reduction in mobility, with the most rapid decline on the 24th March 2020, the day after the Prime Minister's announcement of an enforced lockdown. The reduction in mobility was highly synchronized across the UK. Although mobility has remained low since 26th March 2020, we detect a gradual increase since that time. We also show that the two different datasets produce similar trends, albeit with some location-specific differences. We see slightly larger reductions in average mobility in high-density areas than in low-density areas, with greater variation in mobility in the high-density areas: some high-density areas eliminated almost all mobility. Conclusions: These analyses form a baseline from which to observe changes in behaviour in the UK as social distancing is eased and inform policy towards the future control of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. METHODS: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. INTERPRETATION: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.