Clinical Symptoms of Dengue Infection among Patients from a Non-Endemic Area and Potential for a Predictive Model: A Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis and Decision Tree.

Under-recognition of dengue infection may lead to increased morbidity and mortality, whereas early detection is shown to help improve patient outcomes. Recent incidence and outbreak reports of dengue virus in the United States and other temperate regions where dengue was not typically seen have raised concerns regarding appropriate diagnosis and management by healthcare providers unfamiliar with the disease. This study aimed to describe self-reported clinical symptoms of dengue fever in a non-endemic cohort and to establish a clinically useful predictive algorithm based on presenting features that can assist in the early evaluation of potential dengue infection. Volunteers who experienced febrile illness while traveling in dengue-endemic countries were recruited for this study. History of illness and blood samples were collected at enrollment. Participants were classified as dengue naive or dengue exposed based on neutralizing antibody titers. Statistical analysis was performed to compare characteristics between the two groups. A regression model including joint/muscle/bone pain, rash, dyspnea, and rhinorrhea predicts dengue infection with 78% sensitivity, 63% specificity, 80% positive predictive value, and 61% negative predictive value. A decision tree model including joint/muscle/bone pain, dyspnea, and rash yields 77% sensitivity and 67% specificity. Diagnosis of dengue fever is challenging because of the nonspecific nature of clinical presentation. A sensitive predicting model can be helpful to triage suspected dengue infection in the non-endemic setting, but specificity requires additional testing including laboratory evaluation.

Potency and breadth of human primary ZIKV immune sera shows that Zika viruses cluster antigenically as a single serotype.

Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global public health threat throughout the Americas since 2014. Phylogenetically, the virus is composed of three main lineages, an African, Asian, and American lineage. The recent emergence and spread of ZIKV has raised questions regarding the breadth and potency of human primary ZIKV immune sera against antigenically diverse ZIKV. Although ZIKV is thought to compose a single antigenic serotype, in-depth evaluation of the antigenic relatedness of ZIKV across genetic variants has been limited to a relatively small series of early convalescent human immune sera (4-12 weeks) against a limited number (3) of genetic variants. Using virus neutralization assays, we characterize the potency and breadth of twelve primary ZIKV immune sera from adults infected 5 to 38 months previously against a panel of 11 ZIKV isolates from the African, Asian and American lineages. We assess the variability of neutralization potency of immune sera from these subjects and the variability of susceptibility to neutralization for each virus isolate. Overall, we found all sera neutralized all viruses at FRNT50 ranging from 1:271 to 1:4271, a 15.8-fold range, with only small differences between subject geometric mean titers (GMT) against all viruses and small differences between each ZIKV isolate and sensitivity to neutralization by all sera: when pooled, African strains were 1.3-fold more sensitive to neutralization by subject immune sera compared to pooled American strains. Finally, we subjected our data to analysis using antigenic cartography, finding that ZIKV are highly antigenically similar, with only a ~4-fold range across all antigenic distances between viruses, consistent with a single serotype.

Persistence of Neutralizing Antibody Responses Among Yellow Fever Virus 17D Vaccinees Living in a Nonendemic Setting.

BACKGROUND: The once-in-a-lifetime recommendation for vaccination against yellow fever virus (YFV) has been controversial, leading to increased scrutiny of the durability of immunity after 17D vaccination. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional analysis of 17D vaccinees living in nonendemic Portland, Oregon. Neutralization assays were used to determine YFV immunity. The relationships between 17D immunity and vaccination history, demographics, and travel were evaluated using nominal logistic regression. RESULTS: Seventy-one of 92 (77.2%) subjects were YFV seropositive (90 percent plaque reduction neutralization test ≥1:10) at all timepoints, and 24 of 38 (63.8%) were YFV seropositive at ≥10 years after single-dose vaccination. No relationship was found between YFV immunity and time in endemic countries, other flavivirus immunity, or demographics. Subjects were most likely to become seronegative between 3 and 12 years postvaccination (logistic regression, odds ratio [OR] = 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.73). A comparison of our results and 4 previous studies of YFV nonendemic vaccinees found that overall, 79% (95% CI, 70%-86%) of vaccinees are likely to be seropositive ≥10 years postvaccination. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that 1 in 5 17D vaccinees will lack neutralizing antibodies at ~10 years postvaccination, and a booster vaccination should be considered for nonendemic vaccinees before travel to regions where there is a high risk of YFV transmission.