Towards a science-based testing strategy to identify maternal thyroid hormone imbalance and neurodevelopmental effects in the progeny - Part IV: the ECETOC and CLE Proposal for a Thyroid Function-Related Neurodevelopmental Toxicity Testing and Assessment Scheme (Thyroid-NDT-TAS).

Following the European Commission Endocrine Disruptor Criteria, substances shall be considered as having endocrine disrupting properties if they (a) elicit adverse effects, (b) have endocrine activity, and (c) the two are linked by an endocrine mode-of-action (MoA) unless the MoA is not relevant for humans. A comprehensive, structured approach to assess whether substances meet the Endocrine Disruptor Criteria for the thyroid modality (EDC-T) is currently unavailable. Here, the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Thyroxine Task Force and CropLife Europe propose a Thyroid Function-Related Neurodevelopmental Toxicity Testing and Assessment Scheme (Thyroid-NDT-TAS). In Tier 0, before entering the Thyroid-NDT-TAS, all available in vivo, in vitro and in silico data are submitted to weight-of-evidence (WoE) evaluations to determine whether the substance of interest poses a concern for thyroid disruption. If so, Tier 1 of the Thyroid-NDT-TAS includes an initial MoA and human relevance assessment (structured by the key events of possibly relevant adverse outcome pathways) and the generation of supportive in vitro/in silico data, if relevant. Only if Tier 1 is inconclusive, Tier 2 involves higher-tier testing to generate further thyroid- and/or neurodevelopment-related data. Tier 3 includes the final MoA and human relevance assessment and an overarching WoE evaluation to draw a conclusion on whether, or not, the substance meets the EDC-T. The Thyroid-NDT-TAS is based on the state-of-the-science, and it has been developed to minimise animal testing. To make human safety assessments more accurate, it is recommended to apply the Thyroid-NDT-TAS during future regulatory assessments.

Applying genomics in regulatory toxicology: a report of the ECETOC workshop on omics threshold on non-adversity.

In a joint effort involving scientists from academia, industry and regulatory agencies, ECETOC's activities in Omics have led to conceptual proposals for: (1) A framework that assures data quality for reporting and inclusion of Omics data in regulatory assessments; and (2) an approach to robustly quantify these data, prior to interpretation for regulatory use. In continuation of these activities this workshop explored and identified areas of need to facilitate robust interpretation of such data in the context of deriving points of departure (POD) for risk assessment and determining an adverse change from normal variation. ECETOC was amongst the first to systematically explore the application of Omics methods, now incorporated into the group of methods known as New Approach Methodologies (NAMs), to regulatory toxicology. This support has been in the form of both projects (primarily with CEFIC/LRI) and workshops. Outputs have led to projects included in the workplan of the Extended Advisory Group on Molecular Screening and Toxicogenomics (EAGMST) group of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and to the drafting of OECD Guidance Documents for Omics data reporting, with potentially more to follow on data transformation and interpretation. The current workshop was the last in a series of technical methods development workshops, with a sub-focus on the derivation of a POD from Omics data. Workshop presentations demonstrated that Omics data developed within robust frameworks for both scientific data generation and analysis can be used to derive a POD. The issue of noise in the data was discussed as an important consideration for identifying robust Omics changes and deriving a POD. Such variability or "noise" can comprise technical or biological variation within a dataset and should clearly be distinguished from homeostatic responses. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) were considered a useful framework on which to assemble Omics methods, and a number of case examples were presented in illustration of this point. What is apparent is that high dimension data will always be subject to varying processing pipelines and hence interpretation, depending on the context they are used in. Yet, they can provide valuable input for regulatory toxicology, with the pre-condition being robust methods for the collection and processing of data together with a comprehensive description how the data were interpreted, and conclusions reached.

Towards a science-based testing strategy to identify maternal thyroid hormone imbalance and neurodevelopmental effects in the progeny-part III: how is substance-mediated thyroid hormone imbalance in pregnant/lactating rats or their progeny related to neurodevelopmental effects?

This review investigated which patterns of thyroid- and brain-related effects are seen in rats upon gestational/lactational exposure to 14 substances causing thyroid hormone imbalance by four different modes-of-action (inhibition of thyroid peroxidase, sodium-iodide symporter and deiodinase activities, enhancement of thyroid hormone clearance) or to dietary iodine deficiency. Brain-related parameters included motor activity, cognitive function, acoustic startle response, hearing function, periventricular heterotopia, electrophysiology and brain gene expression. Specific modes-of-action were not related to specific patterns of brain-related effects. Based upon the rat data reviewed, maternal serum thyroid hormone levels do not show a causal relationship with statistically significant neurodevelopmental effects. Offspring serum thyroxine together with offspring serum triiodothyronine and thyroid stimulating hormone appear relevant to predict the likelihood for neurodevelopmental effects. Based upon the collated database, thresholds of ≥60%/≥50% offspring serum thyroxine reduction and ≥20% and statistically significant offspring serum triiodothyronine reduction indicate an increased likelihood for statistically significant neurodevelopmental effects; accuracies: 83% and 67% when excluding electrophysiology (and gene expression). Measurements of brain thyroid hormone levels are likely relevant, too. The extent of substance-mediated thyroid hormone imbalance appears more important than substance mode-of-action to predict neurodevelopmental impairment in rats. Pertinent research needs were identified, e.g. to determine whether the phenomenological offspring thyroid hormone thresholds are relevant for regulatory toxicity testing. The insight from this review shall be used to suggest a tiered testing strategy to determine whether gestational/lactational substance exposure may elicit thyroid hormone imbalance and potentially also neurodevelopmental effects.

A framework for chemical safety assessment incorporating new approach methodologies within REACH.

The long-term investment in new approach methodologies (NAMs) within the EU and other parts of the world is beginning to result in an emerging consensus of how to use information from in silico, in vitro and targeted in vivo sources to assess the safety of chemicals. However, this methodology is being adopted very slowly for regulatory purposes. Here, we have developed a framework incorporating in silico, in vitro and in vivo methods designed to meet the requirements of REACH in which both hazard and exposure can be assessed using a tiered approach. The outputs from each tier are classification categories, safe doses, and risk assessments, and progress through the tiers depends on the output from previous tiers. We have exemplified the use of the framework with three examples. The outputs were the same or more conservative than parallel assessments based on conventional studies. The framework allows a transparent and phased introduction of NAMs in chemical safety assessment and enables science-based safety decisions which provide the same level of public health protection using fewer animals, taking less time, and using less financial and expert resource. Furthermore, it would also allow new methods to be incorporated as they develop through continuous selective evolution rather than periodic revolution.

Towards a science-based testing strategy to identify maternal thyroid hormone imbalance and neurodevelopmental effects in the progeny - part II: how can key events of relevant adverse outcome pathways be addressed in toxicological assessments?

The current understanding of thyroid-related adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) with adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes in mammals has been reviewed. This served to establish if standard rodent toxicity test methods and in vitro assays allow identifying thyroid-related modes-of-action potentially leading to adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes, and the human relevance of effects - in line with the European Commission's Endocrine Disruptor Criteria. The underlying hypothesis is that an understanding of the key events of relevant AOPs provides insight into differences in incidence, magnitude, or species sensitivity of adverse outcomes. The rodent studies include measurements of serum thyroid hormones, thyroid gland pathology and neurodevelopmental assessments, but do not directly inform on specific modes-of-action. Opportunities to address additional non-routine parameters reflecting critical events of AOPs in toxicological assessments are presented. These parameters appear relevant to support the identification of specific thyroid-related modes-of-action, provided that prevailing technical limitations are overcome. Current understanding of quantitative key event relationships is often weak, but would be needed to determine if the triggering of a molecular initiating event will ultimately result in an adverse outcome. Also, significant species differences in all processes related to thyroid hormone signalling are evident, but the biological implications thereof (including human relevance) are often unknown. In conclusion, careful consideration of the measurement (e.g. timing, method) and interpretation of additional non-routine parameters is warranted. These findings will be used in a subsequent paper to propose a testing strategy to identify if a substance may elicit maternal thyroid hormone imbalance and potentially also neurodevelopmental effects in the progeny.

Paraquat pharmacokinetics in primates and extrapolation to humans.

By extending our Paraquat (PQ) work to include primates we have implemented a modelling and simulation strategy that has enabled PQ pharmacokinetic data to be integrated into a single physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that enables more confident extrapolation to humans. Because available data suggested there might be differences in PQ kinetics between primates and non-primates, a radiolabelled study was conducted to characterize pharmacokinetics and excretion in Cynomolgus monkeys. Following single intravenous doses of 0.01 or 0.1 mg paraquat dichloride/kg bw, plasma PQ concentration-time profiles were dose-proportional. Excretion up to 48 h (predominantly urinary) was 82.9%, with ca. 10% remaining unexcreted. In vitro blood binding was similar across Cynomolgus monkeys, humans and rat. Our PBPK model for the rat, mouse and dog, employing a single set of PQ-specific parameters, was scaled to Cynomolgus monkeys and well represented the measured plasma concentration-time profiles over 14 days. Addition of a cartilage compartment to the model better captured the percent remaining in the monkeys at 48 h, whilst having negligible effect on model predictions for the other species. The PBPK model performed well for all four species, demonstrating there is little difference in PQ kinetics between non-primates and primates enabling a more confident extrapolation to humans. Scaling of the PBPK model to humans, with addition of a human-specific dermal submodel based on in vitro human dermal absorption data, provides a valuable tool that could be employed in defining internal dosimetry to complement human health risk assessments.

Integration of paraquat pharmacokinetic data across species using PBPK modelling.

Paraquat dichloride (PQ) is a non-selective herbicide which has been the subject of numerous toxicology studies over more than 50 years. This paper describes the development of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of PQ kinetics for the rat, mouse and dog, firstly to aid the interpretation of studies in which no kinetic measurements were made, and secondly to enable the future extension of the model to humans. Existing pharmacokinetic data were used to develop a model for the rat and mouse. Simulations with this preliminary model were then used to identify key data gaps and to design a new blood binding study to reduce uncertainty in critical aspects of the model. The new data provided evidence to support the model structure, and its predictive performance was then assessed against dog and rat datasets not used in model development. The PQ-specific model parameters are the same for all three species, with only the physiological parameters varying between species. This consistency across species provides a strong basis for extrapolation to other species, as demonstrated here for the dog. The model enables a wide range of PQ data to be linked together to provide a broad understanding of PQ pharmacokinetics in rodents and the dog, showing that the key aspects of PQ kinetics in these species are understood and adequately encapsulated within the model.

Assessing chemical carcinogenicity: hazard identification, classification, and risk assessment. Insight from a Toxicology Forum state-of-the-science workshop.

The Toxicology Forum convened an international state-of-the-science workshop Assessing Chemical Carcinogenicity: Hazard Identification, Classification, and Risk Assessment in December 2020. Challenges related to assessing chemical carcinogenicity were organized under the topics of (1) problem formulation; (2) modes-of-action; (3) dose-response assessment; and (4) the use of new approach methodologies (NAMs). Key topics included the mechanisms of genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogenicity and how these in conjunction with consideration of exposure conditions might inform dose-response assessments and an overall risk assessment; approaches to evaluate the human relevance of modes-of-action observed in rodent studies; and the characterization of uncertainties. While the scientific limitations of the traditional rodent chronic bioassay were widely acknowledged, knowledge gaps that need to be overcome to facilitate the further development and uptake of NAMs were also identified. Since one single NAM is unlikely to replace the bioassay, activities to combine NAMs into integrated approaches for testing and assessment, or preferably into defined approaches for testing and assessment that include data interpretation procedures, were identified as urgent research needs. In addition, adverse outcome pathway networks can provide a framework for organizing the available evidence/data for assessing chemical carcinogenicity. Since a formally accepted decision tree to guide use of the best and most current science to advance carcinogenicity risk assessment is currently unavailable, a Decision Matrix for carcinogenicity assessment could be useful. The workshop organizers developed and presented a decision matrix to be considered within a carcinogenicity hazard and risk assessment that is offered in tabular form.

Toward a science-based testing strategy to identify maternal thyroid hormone imbalance and neurodevelopmental effects in the progeny - part I: which parameters from human studies are most relevant for toxicological assessments?

The 2018 European Food Safety Authority/European Chemicals Agency Guidance on the Identification of Endocrine Disruptors lacks clarity on how the presence or absence of substance-induced maternal thyroid hormone imbalance, or the potential for subsequent deleterious consequences in child neurodevelopment, should be established by toxicological assessments. To address these uncertainties, this narrative review evaluates human evidence on how altered maternal thyroid function may be associated with child neurodevelopmental outcomes; and seeks to identify parameters in human studies that appear most relevant for toxicological assessments. Serum levels of free thyroxine (fT4) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) are most frequently measured when assessing thyroid function in pregnant women, whereas a broad spectrum of neurodevelopmental parameters is used to evaluate child neurodevelopment. The human data confirms an association between altered maternal serum fT4 and/or TSH and increased risk for child neurodevelopmental impairment. Quantitative boundaries of effects indicative of increased risks need to be established. Moreover, it is unknown if altered serum levels of total T4, free or total triiodothyronine, or parameters unrelated to serum thyroid hormones might be more relevant indicators of such effects. None of the human studies established a link between substance-mediated liver enzyme induction and increased serum thyroid hormone clearance, let alone further to child neurodevelopmental impairment. This review identifies research needs to contribute to the development of toxicity testing strategies, to reliably predict whether substances have the potential to impair child neurodevelopment via maternal thyroid hormone imbalance.

Hazard identification, classification, and risk assessment of carcinogens: too much or too little? - Report of an ECETOC workshop.

The European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) organized a workshop "Hazard Identification, Classification and Risk Assessment of Carcinogens: Too Much or Too Little?" to explore the scientific limitations of the current binary carcinogenicity classification scheme that classifies substances as either carcinogenic or not. Classification is often based upon the rodent 2-year bioassay, which has scientific limitations and is not necessary to predict whether substances are likely human carcinogens. By contrast, tiered testing strategies founded on new approach methodologies (NAMs) followed by subchronic toxicity testing, as necessary, are useful to determine if a substance is likely carcinogenic, by which mode-of-action effects would occur and, for non-genotoxic carcinogens, the dose levels below which the key events leading to carcinogenicity are not affected. Importantly, the objective is not for NAMs to mimic high-dose effects recorded in vivo, as these are not relevant to human risk assessment. Carcinogenicity testing at the "maximum tolerated dose" does not reflect human exposure conditions, but causes major disturbances of homeostasis, which are very unlikely to occur at relevant human exposure levels. The evaluation of findings should consider biological relevance and not just statistical significance. Using this approach, safe exposures to non-genotoxic substances can be established.

Assessment of the Effects of MPTP and Paraquat on Dopaminergic Neurons and Microglia in the Substantia Nigra Pars Compacta of C57BL/6 Mice.

The neurotoxicity of paraquat dichloride (PQ) was assessed in two inbred strains of 9- or 16-week old male C57BL/6 mice housed in two different laboratories and compared to the effects of 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP). PQ was administered by intraperitoneal injections; either once (20 mg/kg) or twice (10 mg/kg) weekly for 3 weeks, while MPTP-HCl was injected 4 times on a single day (20 mg/kg/dose). Brains were collected 8, 16, 24, 48, 96 or 168 hours after the last PQ treatment, and 48 or 168 hours after MPTP treatment. Dopamine neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) were identified by antibodies to tyrosine hydroxylase (TH+) and microglia were identified using Iba-1 immunoreactivity. The total number of TH+ neurons and the number of resting and activated microglia in the SNpc at 168 hours after the last dose were estimated using model- or design-based stereology, with investigators blinded to treatment. In a further analysis, a pathologist, also blinded to treatment, evaluated the SNpc and/or striatum for loss of TH+ neurons (SNpc) or terminals (striatum), cell death (as indicated by amino cupric silver uptake, TUNEL and/or caspase 3 staining) and neuroinflammation (as indicated by Iba-1 and/or GFAP staining). PQ, administered either once or twice weekly to 9- or 16-week old mice from two suppliers, had no effect on the number of TH+ neurons or microglia in the SNpc, as assessed by two groups, each blinded to treatment, using different stereological methods. PQ did not induce neuronal cell loss or degeneration in the SNpc or striatum. Additionally, there was no evidence of apoptosis, microgliosis or astrogliosis. In MPTP-treated mice, the number of TH+ neurons in the SNpc was significantly decreased and the number of activated microglia increased. Histopathological assessment found degenerating neurons/terminals in the SNpc and striatum but no evidence of apoptotic cell death. MPTP activated microglia in the SNpc and increased the number of astrocytes in the SNpc and striatum.

Dietary administration of diquat for 13 weeks does not result in a loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra of C57BL/6J mice.

Male and female C57BL/6J mice were administered diquat dibromide (DQ∙Br2) in their diets at concentrations of 0 (control), 12.5 and 62.5 ppm for 13 weeks to assess the potential effects of DQ on the nigrostriatal dopaminergic system. Achieved dose levels at 62.5 ppm were 6.4 and 7.6 mg DQ (ion)/kg bw/day for males and females, respectively. A separate group of mice was administered 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) ip as a positive control. The comparative effects of DQ and MPTP on the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc) and/or striatum were assessed using neurochemical, neuropathological and stereological endpoints. Morphological and stereological assessments were performed by investigators who were "blinded" to dose group. DQ had no effect on striatal dopamine concentration or dopamine turnover. There was no evidence of neuronal degeneration, astrocytic or microglial activation, or a reduction in the number of tyrosine hydroxylase positive (TH(+)) neurons in the SNpc or neuronal processes in the striatum of DQ-treated mice. These results are consistent with the rapid clearance of DQ from the brain following a single dose of radiolabeled DQ. In contrast, MPTP-treated mice exhibited decreased striatal dopamine concentration, reduced numbers of TH(+) neurons in the SNpc, and neuropathological changes, including neuronal necrosis, as well as astrocytic and microglial activation in the striatum and SNpc.

Dietary administration of paraquat for 13 weeks does not result in a loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra of C57BL/6J mice.

Several investigations have reported that mice administered paraquat dichloride (PQ·Cl2) by intraperitoneal injection exhibit a loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc). In this study, male and female C57BL/6J mice were administered PQ·Cl2 in the diet at concentrations of 0 (control), 10, and 50ppm for a duration of 13weeks. A separate group of mice were administered 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP) during week 12 as positive controls to produce a loss of dopaminergic neurons in the SNpc. The comparative effects of PQ and MPTP on the SNpc and/or striatum were assessed using neurochemical, neuropathological, and stereological endpoints. Morphological and stereological assessments were performed by investigators 'blinded' to the origin of the tissue. Neither dose of PQ·Cl2 (10 or 50 ppm in the diet) caused a loss of striatal dopamine or dopamine metabolite concentrations in the brains of mice. Pathological assessments of the SNpc and striatum showed no evidence of neuronal degeneration or astrocytic/microglial activation. Furthermore, the number of tyrosine hydroxylase-positive (TH(+)) neurons in the SNpc was not reduced in PQ-treated mice. In contrast, MPTP caused a decrease in striatal dopamine concentration, a reduction in TH(+) neurons in the SNpc, and significant pathological changes including astrocytic and microglial activation in the striatum and SNpc. The MPTP-induced effects were greater in males than in females. It is concluded that 13weeks of continuous dietary exposure of C57BL/6J mice to 50ppm PQ·Cl2 (equivalent to 10.2 and 15.6mg PQ ion/kg body weight/day for males and females, respectively) does not result in the loss of, or damage to, dopaminergic neurons in the SNpc.

Pharmacokinetic, neurochemical, stereological and neuropathological studies on the potential effects of paraquat in the substantia nigra pars compacta and striatum of male C57BL/6J mice.

The pharmacokinetics and neurotoxicity of paraquat dichloride (PQ) were assessed following once weekly administration to C57BL/6J male mice by intraperitoneal injection for 1, 2 or 3 weeks at doses of 10, 15 or 25 mg/kg/week. Approximately 0.3% of the administered dose was taken up by the brain and was slowly eliminated, with a half-life of approximately 3 weeks. PQ did not alter the concentration of dopamine (DA), homovanillic acid (HVA) or 3,4-dihydroxyphenylacetic acid (DOPAC), or increase dopamine turnover in the striatum. There was inconsistent stereological evidence of a loss of DA neurons, as identified by chromogenic or fluorescent-tagged antibodies to tyrosine hydroxylase in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNpc). There was no evidence that PQ induced neuronal degeneration in the SNpc or degenerating neuronal processes in the striatum, as indicated by the absence of uptake of silver stain or reduced immunolabeling of tyrosine-hydroxylase-positive (TH(+)) neurons. There was no evidence of apoptotic cell death, which was evaluated using TUNEL or caspase 3 assays. Microglia (IBA-1 immunoreactivity) and astrocytes (GFAP immunoreactivity) were not activated in PQ-treated mice 4, 8, 16, 24, 48, 96 or 168 h after 1, 2 or 3 doses of PQ. In contrast, mice dosed with the positive control substance, 1-methyl-4-phenyl-1,2,3,6-tetrahydropyridine (MPTP; 10mg/kg/dose×4 doses, 2 h apart), displayed significantly reduced DA and DOPAC concentrations and increased DA turnover in the striatum 7 days after dosing. The number of TH(+) neurons in the SNpc was reduced, and there were increased numbers of degenerating neurons and neuronal processes in the SNpc and striatum. MPTP-mediated cell death was not attributed to apoptosis. MPTP activated microglia and astrocytes within 4 h of the last dose, reaching a peak within 48 h. The microglial response ended by 96 h in the SNpc, but the astrocytic response continued through 168 h in the striatum. These results bring into question previous published stereological studies that report loss of TH(+) neurons in the SNpc of PQ-treated mice. This study also suggests that even if the reduction in TH(+) neurons reported by others occurs in PQ-treated mice, this apparent phenotypic change is unaccompanied by neuronal cell death or by modification of dopamine levels in the striatum.

The validation of in vitro methods for skin irritation.

Several alternative in vitro methods for identifying skin irritants have been developed in the last 10 years, the most promising of which use either reconstituted human skin models or animal (e.g. pig or mouse) skin organ cultures. In 1998, the European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) commissioned a pre-validation study of five methods. Two reconstituted human skin methods (Epiderm and EPISKIN) and one animal skin model (the mouse skin integrity function test, SIFT) performed well in Phases I and II of the study (intralaboratory reproducibility and protocol transfer) and proceeded to Phase III which assessed reproducibility and predictive ability in three independent laboratories using a set of 20 coded test chemicals (10 irritants and 10 non irritants). Intralaboratory reproducibility was again acceptable for all three methods but inter-laboratory reproducibility was acceptable only for EPISKIN. The predictive ability of all three methods was also inadequate. Following refinements to the protocols of Epiderm and EPISKIN and changes to the statistical analysis of SIFT, the predictive ability was improved. In 2003, ECVAM concluded that they could proceed to a full validation study. This will be conducted in two phases and is scheduled for completion early in 2005.

Update on the validation and regulatory acceptance of alternative tests for skin corrosion and irritation.

The European Centre for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ECVAM) has supported validation studies on in vitro tests for skin corrosion, resulting in the validities of four alternative tests being endorsed. The US Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) has also evaluated the validity of these alternative methods for skin corrosion testing. In the European Union, a new Test Method on Skin Corrosion (B.40), incorporating the rat skin transcutaneous electrical resistance and human skin model assays, was included in Annex V of Directive 67/548/EEC in mid-2000. At an international level, two OECD Test Guidelines (430 and 431) on these alternative methods have been approved as of May 2002. To date, there are no validated in vitro tests for predicting the dermal irritancy of chemicals. ECVAM supported prevalidation studies on five in vitro tests for acute skin irritation during 1999-2001. These tests were based on human, pig and mouse skin. However, none of them met the criteria set for inclusion in a large-scale formal validation study. Following additional work on the test protocols and/or prediction models, it appears that several modified tests could now be ready for validation in 2003.

Acute systemic toxicity.

Use of the test that aimed to identify the single lethal dose of a substance that kills half the animals in a test group (the LD50 test) should finally be discontinued by the end of 2002, after many years of controversy and debate. In its stead are three recently developed alternative animal tests that significantly improve animal welfare: the fixed dose procedure, the acute toxic class method, and the up and down procedure. These tests have already undergone revision, both to improve their scientific performance and, importantly, to increase their regulatory acceptance. They can now be used within a strategy of acute toxicity testing for all types of test substances and for all regulatory and in-house purposes. In vitro cytotoxicity tests could be used (perhaps by mid-2002) as adjuncts to these alternative animal tests to improve dose level selection and reduce (at least modestly) the number of animals used. However, the total replacement of animal tests requires a considerable amount of further test development, followed by validation, which will require at least 10 yr.