Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Projecting Omicron scenarios in the US while tracking population-level immunity.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in policy, shifts in behavior, and the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants spurred multiple waves of transmission. Accurate assessments of the changing risks were vital for ensuring adequate healthcare capacity, designing mitigation strategies, and communicating effectively with the public. Here, we introduce a model of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination that provided rapid and reliable projections as the BA.1, BA.4 and BA.5 variants emerged and spread across the US. For example, our three-week ahead national projection of the early 2021 peak in COVID-19 hospitalizations was only one day later and 11.6-13.3% higher than the actual peak, while our projected peak in mortality was two days earlier and 0.22-4.7% higher than reported. We track population-level immunity from prior infections and vaccination in terms of the percent reduction in overall susceptibility relative to a completely naive population. As of October 1, 2022, we estimate that the US population had a 36.52% reduction in overall susceptibility to the BA.4/BA.5 variants, with 61.8%, 15.06%, and 23.54% of immunity attributable to infections, primary series vaccination, and booster vaccination, respectively. We retrospectively projected the potential impact of expanding booster coverage starting on July 15, 2022, and found that a five-fold increase in weekly boosting rates would have resulted in 70% of people over 65 vaccinated by Oct 10, 2022 and averted 25,000 (95% CI: 14,400-35,700) deaths during the BA.4/BA.5 surge. Our model provides coherent variables for tracking population-level immunity in the increasingly complex landscape of variants and vaccines and enables robust simulations of plausible scenarios for the emergence and mitigation of novel COVID variants.

Phenotype-structured model of intra-clonal heterogeneity and drug resistance in multiple myeloma.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a genetically complex hematological cancer characterized by the abnormal proliferation of malignant plasma cells in the bone marrow. This disease progresses from a premalignant condition known as monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS) through sequential genetic alterations involving various genes. These genetic changes contribute to the uncontrolled growth of multiple clones of plasma cells. In this study, we present a phenotype-structured model that captures the intra-clonal heterogeneity and drug resistance in multiple myeloma (MM). The model accurately reproduces the branching evolutionary pattern observed in MM progression, aligning with a previously developed multiscale model. Numerical simulations reveal that higher mutation rates enhance tumor phenotype diversity, while access to growth factors accelerates tumor evolution and increases its final size. Interestingly, the model suggests that further increasing growth factor access primarily amplifies tumor size rather than altering clonal dynamics. Additionally, the model emphasizes that higher mutation frequencies and growth factor availability elevate the chances of drug resistance and relapse. It indicates that the timing of the treatment could trajectory of tumor evolution and clonal emergence in the case of branching evolutionary pattern. Given its low computational cost, our model is well-suited for quantitative studies on MM clonal heterogeneity and its interaction with chemotherapeutic treatments.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Equitable bivalent booster allocation strategies against emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in US cities with large Hispanic communities: The case of El Paso County, Texas.

COVID-19 is a disease that disproportionately impacts the Hispanic population, due to the prevalence of certain risk factors and the high number of essential workers in this community. In this work, we analyze the vaccination strategies that would minimize the COVID-19 health disparities in El Paso County, TX, in the context of the emergence of a new highly transmissible and immune-escaping SARS-CoV-2 variant. We stratify an age-structure stochastic SEIR model that tracks the evolution of immunity derived from infections and vaccination according to Hispanic vs non-Hispanic ethnicity and parameterize it to the demographic, health and immunization data of El Paso County, TX. After fitting the model, the results show that increasing vaccination with bivalent boosters by five-fold in anticipation of highly transmissible and immune escaping variants would decrease the cumulative hospital admissions and mortality from Mar 1, 2023, to Dec 31, 2023, by 62.72% and 61.41%, respectively. Further, our projections reveal that the disproportionate impact on the Hispanic community would be eliminated if approximately half of the doses that are given to the non-Hispanic group according to the equal distribution, would be re-allocated to the Hispanic population. Our findings can guide public health officials in US cities with large Hispanic communities and help them design vaccination strategies that minimize COVID-19 health disparities caused by emerging variants using specific vaccination strategies.

Modelling of the Innate and Adaptive Immune Response to SARS Viral Infection, Cytokine Storm and Vaccination.

In this work, we develop mathematical models of the immune response to respiratory viral infection, taking into account some particular properties of the SARS-CoV infections, cytokine storm and vaccination. Each model consists of a system of ordinary differential equations that describe the interactions of the virus, epithelial cells, immune cells, cytokines, and antibodies. Conventional analysis of the existence and stability of stationary points is completed by numerical simulations in order to study the dynamics of solutions. The behavior of the solutions is characterized by large peaks of virus concentration specific to acute respiratory viral infections. At the first stage, we study the innate immune response based on the protective properties of interferon secreted by virus-infected cells. Viral infection down-regulates interferon production. This competition can lead to the bistability of the system with different regimes of infection progression with high or low intensity. After that, we introduce the adaptive immune response with antigen-specific T- and B-lymphocytes. The resulting model shows how the incubation period and the maximal viral load depend on the initial viral load and the parameters of the immune response. In particular, an increase in the initial viral load leads to a shorter incubation period and higher maximal viral load. The model shows that a deficient production of antibodies leads to an increase in the incubation period and even higher maximum viral loads. In order to study the emergence and dynamics of cytokine storm, we consider proinflammatory cytokines produced by cells of the innate immune response. Depending on the parameters of the model, the system can remain in the normal inflammatory state specific for viral infections or, due to positive feedback between inflammation and immune cells, pass to cytokine storm characterized by the excessive production of proinflammatory cytokines. Finally, we study the production of antibodies due to vaccination. We determine the dose-response dependence and the optimal interval of vaccine dose. Assumptions of the model and obtained results correspond to the experimental and clinical data.

Altered developmental programs and oriented cell divisions lead to bulky bones during salamander limb regeneration.

There are major differences in duration and scale at which limb development and regeneration proceed, raising the question to what extent regeneration is a recapitulation of development. We address this by analyzing skeletal elements using a combination of micro-CT imaging, molecular profiling and clonal cell tracing. We find that, in contrast to development, regenerative skeletal growth is accomplished based entirely on cartilage expansion prior to ossification, not limiting the transversal cartilage expansion and resulting in bulkier skeletal parts. The oriented extension of salamander cartilage and bone appear similar to the development of basicranial synchondroses in mammals, as we found no evidence for cartilage stem cell niches or growth plate-like structures during neither development nor regeneration. Both regenerative and developmental ossification in salamanders start from the cortical bone and proceeds inwards, showing the diversity of schemes for the synchrony of cortical and endochondral ossification among vertebrates.

Surface flow for colonial integration in reef-building corals.

Reef-building corals are endangered animals with a complex colonial organization. Physiological mechanisms connecting multiple polyps and integrating them into a coral colony are still enigmatic. Using live imaging, particle tracking, and mathematical modeling, we reveal how corals connect individual polyps and form integrated polyp groups via species-specific, complex, and stable networks of currents at their surface. These currents involve surface mucus of different concentrations, which regulate joint feeding of the colony. Inside the coral, within the gastrovascular system, we expose the complexity of bidirectional branching streams that connect individual polyps. This system of canals extends the surface area by 4-fold and might improve communication, nutrient supply, and symbiont transfer. Thus, individual polyps integrate via complex liquid dynamics on the surface and inside the colony.

Combining mathematical modeling and deep learning to make rapid and explainable predictions of the patient-specific response to anticoagulant therapy under venous flow.

Anticoagulant drugs are commonly prescribed to prevent hypercoagulable states in patients with venous thromboembolism. The choice of the most efficient anticoagulant and the appropriate dosage regimen remain a complex problem because of the intersubject variability in the coagulation kinetics and the effect of blood flow. The rapid assessment of the patient-specific response to anticoagulant regimens would assist clinical decision-making and ensure efficient management of coagulopathy. In this work, we introduce a novel approach that combines computational modeling and deep learning for the fast prediction of the patient-specific response to anticoagulant regimens. We extend a previously developed model to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of thrombin generation and thrombus formation under anticoagulation therapy. Using a 1D version of the model, we generate a dataset of thrombus formation for thousands of virtual patients by varying key parameters in their physiological range. We use this dataset to train an artificial neural network (ANN) and we use it to predict patient's response to anticoagulant therapy under flow. The algorithm is available and can be accessed through the link: https://github.com/MPS7/ML_coag. It yields an accuracy of 96 % which suggests that its usefulness can be assessed in a randomized clinical trial. The exploration of the model dynamics explains the decisions taken by the algorithm.

Living in darkness: Exploring adaptation of Proteus anguinus in 3 dimensions by X-ray imaging.

BACKGROUND: Lightless caves can harbour a wide range of living organisms. Cave animals have evolved a set of morphological, physiological, and behavioural adaptations known as troglomorphisms, enabling their survival in the perpetual darkness, narrow temperature and humidity ranges, and nutrient scarcity of the subterranean environment. In this study, we focused on adaptations of skull shape and sensory systems in the blind cave salamander, Proteus anguinus, also known as olm or simply proteus-the largest cave tetrapod and the only European amphibian living exclusively in subterranean environments. This extraordinary amphibian compensates for the loss of sight by enhanced non-visual sensory systems including mechanoreceptors, electroreceptors, and chemoreceptors. We compared developmental stages of P. anguinus with Ambystoma mexicanum, also known as axolotl, to make an exemplary comparison between cave- and surface-dwelling paedomorphic salamanders. FINDINGS: We used contrast-enhanced X-ray computed microtomography for the 3D segmentation of the soft tissues in the head of P. anguinus and A. mexicanum. Sensory organs were visualized to elucidate how the animal is adapted to living in complete darkness. X-ray microCT datasets were provided along with 3D models for larval, juvenile, and adult specimens, showing the cartilage of the chondrocranium and the position, shape, and size of the brain, eyes, and olfactory epithelium. CONCLUSIONS: P. anguinus still keeps some of its secrets. Our high-resolution X-ray microCT scans together with 3D models of the anatomical structures in the head may help to elucidate the nature and origin of the mechanisms behind its adaptations to the subterranean environment, which led to a series of troglomorphisms.

Impact of Force Function Formulations on the Numerical Simulation of Centre-Based Models.

Centre-based or cell-centre models are a framework for the computational study of multicellular systems with widespread use in cancer modelling and computational developmental biology. At the core of these models are the numerical method used to update cell positions and the force functions that encode the pairwise mechanical interactions of cells. For the latter, there are multiple choices that could potentially affect both the biological behaviour captured, and the robustness and efficiency of simulation. For example, available open-source software implementations of centre-based models rely on different force functions for their default behaviour and it is not straightforward for a modeller to know if these are interchangeable. Our study addresses this problem and contributes to the understanding of the potential and limitations of three popular force functions from a numerical perspective. We show empirically that choosing the force parameters such that the relaxation time for two cells after cell division is consistent between different force functions results in good agreement of the population radius of a two-dimensional monolayer relaxing mechanically after intense cell proliferation. Furthermore, we report that numerical stability is not sufficient to prevent unphysical cell trajectories following cell division, and consequently, that too large time steps can cause geometrical differences at the population level.

A hybrid multi-scale model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics to assess the potential of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a novel coronavirus that emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. It has caused a global outbreak which represents a major threat to global health. Public health resorted to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing and lockdown to slow down the spread of the pandemic. However, the effect of each of these measures remains hard to quantify. We design a multi-scale model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We describe the motion of individual agents using a social force model. Each agent can be either susceptible, infected, quarantined, immunized or deceased. The model considers both mechanisms of direct and indirect transmission. We parameterize the model to reproduce the early dynamics of disease spread in Italy. We show that panic situations increase the risk of infection transmission in crowds despite social distancing measures. Next, we reveal that pre-symptomatic transmission accelerates the onset of the exponential growth of cases. After that, we demonstrate that the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 on hard surfaces determines the number of cases reached during the peak of the epidemic. Then, we show that the restricted movement of the individuals flattens the epidemic curve. Finally, model predictions suggest that measures stricter than social distancing and lockdown were used to control the epidemic in Wuhan, China.

A mathematical model to quantify the effects of platelet count, shear rate, and injury size on the initiation of blood coagulation under venous flow conditions.

Platelets upregulate the generation of thrombin and reinforce the fibrin clot which increases the incidence risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). However, the role of platelets in the pathogenesis of venous cardiovascular diseases remains hard to quantify. An experimentally validated model of thrombin generation dynamics is formulated. The model predicts that a high platelet count increases the peak value of generated thrombin as well as the endogenous thrombin potential (ETP) as reported in experimental data. To investigate the effects of platelets density, shear rate, and wound size on the initiation of blood coagulation, we calibrate a previously developed model of venous thrombus formation and implement it in 3D using a novel cell-centered finite-volume solver. We conduct numerical simulations to reproduce in vitro experiments of blood coagulation in microfluidic capillaries. Then, we derive a reduced one-equation model of thrombin distribution from the previous model under simplifying hypotheses and we use it to determine the conditions of clotting initiation on the platelet count, the shear rate, and the plasma composition. The initiation of clotting also exhibits a threshold response to the size of the wounded region in good agreement with the reported experimental findings.

Mathematical Modeling Predicts That Strict Social Distancing Measures Would Be Needed to Shorten the Duration of Waves of COVID-19 Infections in Vietnam.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in 2019, has spread throughout the world and has since then been declared a pandemic. As a result, COVID-19 has caused a major threat to global public health. In this paper, we use mathematical modeling to analyze the reported data of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. To achieve this, two models are used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The first model belongs to the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type and is used to compute the basic reproduction number. The second model adopts a multi-scale approach which explicitly integrates the movement of each individual. Numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19 in urban areas of Vietnam. Both models show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Whereas, more strict measures would lead to the containment of each epidemic wave in one and a half months.

A multiscale model to design therapeutic strategies that overcome drug resistance to tyrosine kinase inhibitors in multiple myeloma.

Drug resistance (DR) is a phenomenon characterized by the tolerance of a disease to pharmaceutical treatment. In cancer patients, DR is one of the main challenges that limit the therapeutic potential of the existing treatments. Therefore, overcoming DR by restoring the sensitivity of cancer cells would be greatly beneficial. In this context, mathematical modeling can be used to provide novel therapeutic strategies that maximize the efficiency of anti-cancer agents and potentially overcome DR. In this paper, we present a new multiscale model devoted to the interaction of potential treatments with multiple myeloma (MM) development. In this model, MM cells are represented as individual objects that move, divide, and die by apoptosis. The fate of each cell depends on intracellular and extracellular regulation, as well as the administered treatment. The model is used to explore the combined effects of a tyrosine-kinase inhibitor (TKI) with a pentose phosphate pathway (PPP) inhibitor. We use numerical simulations to tailor effective and safe treatment regimens that may eradicate the MM tumors. The model suggests that an interval for the daily dose of the PPP inhibitor can maximize the responsiveness of MM cells to the treatment with TKIs. Then, it demonstrates that the combination of high-dose pulsatile TKI treatment with high-dose daily PPP inhibitor therapy can potentially eradicate the tumor.The predictions of numerical simulations using such a model can be considered as testable hypotheses in future pre-clinical experiments and clinical studies.

Corrigendum: Spatial Lymphocyte Dynamics in Lymph Nodes Predicts the Cytotoxic T Cell Frequency Needed for HIV Infection Control.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2019.01213.].

Mathematical Modeling Reveals That the Administration of EGF Can Promote the Elimination of Lymph Node Metastases by PD-1/PD-L1 Blockade.

In the advanced stages of cancers like melanoma, some of the malignant cells leave the primary tumor and infiltrate the neighboring lymph nodes (LNs). The interaction between secondary cancer and the immune response in the lymph node represents a complex process that needs to be fully understood in order to develop more effective immunotherapeutic strategies. In this process, antigen-presenting cells (APCs) approach the tumor and initiate the adaptive immune response for the corresponding antigen. They stimulate the naive CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes which subsequently generate a population of helper and effector cells. On one hand, immune cells can eliminate tumor cells using cell-cell contact and by secreting apoptosis inducing cytokines. They are also able to induce their dormancy. On the other hand, the tumor cells are able to escape the immune surveillance using their immunosuppressive abilities. To study the interplay between tumor progression and the immune response, we develop two new models describing the interaction between cancer and immune cells in the lymph node. The first model consists of partial differential equations (PDEs) describing the populations of the different types of cells. The second one is a hybrid discrete-continuous model integrating the mechanical and biochemical mechanisms that define the tumor-immune interplay in the lymph node. We use the continuous model to determine the conditions of the regimes of tumor-immune interaction in the lymph node. While we use the hybrid model to elucidate the mechanisms that contribute to the development of each regime at the cellular and tissue levels. We study the dynamics of tumor growth in the absence of immune cells. Then, we consider the immune response and we quantify the effects of immunosuppression and local EGF concentration on the fate of the tumor. Numerical simulations of the two models show the existence of three possible outcomes of the tumor-immune interactions in the lymph node that coincide with the main phases of the immunoediting process: tumor elimination, equilibrium, and tumor evasion. Both models predict that the administration of EGF can promote the elimination of the secondary tumor by PD-1/PD-L1 blockade.

Spatial Lymphocyte Dynamics in Lymph Nodes Predicts the Cytotoxic T Cell Frequency Needed for HIV Infection Control.

The surveillance of host body tissues by immune cells is central for mediating their defense function. In vivo imaging technologies have been used to quantitatively characterize target cell scanning and migration of lymphocytes within lymph nodes (LNs). The translation of these quantitative insights into a predictive understanding of immune system functioning in response to various perturbations critically depends on computational tools linking the individual immune cell properties with the emergent behavior of the immune system. By choosing the Newtonian second law for the governing equations, we developed a broadly applicable mathematical model linking individual and coordinated T-cell behaviors. The spatial cell dynamics is described by a superposition of autonomous locomotion, intercellular interaction, and viscous damping processes. The model is calibrated using in vivo data on T-cell motility metrics in LNs such as the translational speeds, turning angle speeds, and meandering indices. The model is applied to predict the impact of T-cell motility on protection against HIV infection, i.e., to estimate the threshold frequency of HIV-specific cytotoxic T cells (CTLs) that is required to detect productively infected cells before the release of viral particles starts. With this, it provides guidance for HIV vaccine studies allowing for the migration of cells in fibrotic LNs.

A 3D Multiscale Model to Explore the Role of EGFR Overexpression in Tumourigenesis.

The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signalling cascade is one of the main pathways that regulate the survival and division of mammalian cells. It is also one of the most altered transduction pathways in cancer. Acquired mutations in the EGFR/ERK pathway can cause the overexpression of EGFR on the surface of the cell, while others downregulate the inactivation of switched on intracellular proteins such as Ras and Raf. This upregulates the activity of ERK and promotes cell division. We develop a 3D multiscale model to explore the role of EGFR overexpression on tumour initiation. In this model, cells are described as individual objects that move, interact, divide, proliferate, and die by apoptosis. We use Brownian Dynamics to describe the extracellular and intracellular regulations of cells as well as the spatial and stochastic effects influencing them. The fate of each cell depends on the number of active transcription factors in the nucleus. We use numerical simulations to investigate the individual and combined effects of mutations on the intracellular regulation of individual cells. Next, we show that the distance between active receptors increase the level of EGFR/ERK signalling. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model by quantifying the impact of mutational alterations in the EGFR/ERK pathway on the growth rate of in silico tumours.

Modeling of the effects of IL-17 and TNF-α on endothelial cells and thrombus growth.

Rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis are chronic inflammatory diseases, with massive increase of cardiovascular events (CVE), and contribution of the cytokines TNF-α and IL-17. Chronic inflammation inside the joint membrane or synovium results from the activation of fibroblasts/synoviocytes, and leads to the release of cytokines from monocytes (Tumor Necrosis Factor or TNF) and from T lymphocytes (Interleukin-17 or IL-17). At the systemic level, the very same cytokines affect endothelial cells and vessel wall. We have previously shown [1,2] that IL-17 and TNF-α, specifically when combined, increase procoagulation, decrease anticoagulation and increase platelet aggregation, leading to thrombosis. These results are the basis for the models of interactions between IL-17 and TNF, and genes expressed by activated endothelial cells. This work is devoted to mathematical modeling and numerical simulations of blood coagulation and clot growth under the influence of IL-17 and TNF-α. We show that they can provoke thrombosis, leading to the complete or partial occlusion of blood vessels. The regimes of blood coagulation and conditions of occlusion are investigated in numerical simulations and in approximate analytical models. The results of mathematical modeling allow us to predict thrombosis development for an individual patient.