Informative Censoring-A Cause of Bias in Estimating COVID-19 Mortality Using Hospital Data.

(1) Background: Several retrospective observational analyzed treatment outcomes for COVID-19; (2) Methods: Inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) was applied to correct for bias due to informative censoring in database of hospitalized patients who did and did not receive convalescent plasma; (3) Results: When compared with an IPCW analysis, overall mortality was overestimated using an unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curve, and hazard ratios for the older age group compared to the youngest were underestimated using the Cox proportional hazard models and 30-day mortality; (4) Conclusions: An IPCW analysis provided stabilizing weights by hospital admission.

Intranasal antisepsis to reduce influenza virus transmission in an animal model.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza annually causes significant morbidity and mortality, and unpredictable respiratory virus zoonoses, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, can threaten the health and lives of millions more. Molecular iodine (I2 ) is a broad-spectrum, pathogen-nonspecific antiseptic agent that has demonstrated antimicrobial activity against a wide range of bacteria, virus, and fungi. METHODS: We investigated a commercially available antiseptic, a non-irritating formulation of iodine (5% povidone-iodine) with a film-forming agent that extends the duration of the iodine's antimicrobial activity, for its ability to prevent influenza virus transmission between infected and susceptible animals in the guinea pig model of influenza virus transmission. RESULTS: We observed that a once-daily topical application of this long-lasting antiseptic to the nares of either the infected virus-donor guinea pig or the susceptible virus-recipient guinea pig, or to the nares of both animals, prior to virus inoculation effectively reduced transmission of a highly transmissible influenza A virus, even when the donor and recipient guinea pigs shared the same cage. Daily treatment of the recipient guinea pig starting 1 day after initial exposure to an infected donor guinea pig in the same cage was similarly effective in preventing detectable influenza virus infection in the recipient animal. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that a daily application of this antiseptic formulation is efficacious in reducing the transmission of influenza A virus in the guinea pig model, and further study in this and other preclinical models is warranted.

Discovery and intranasal administration of a SARS-CoV-2 broadly acting neutralizing antibody with activity against multiple Omicron subvariants.

BACKGROUND: The continual emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern, in particular the newly emerged Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant and its BA.X lineages, has rendered ineffective a number of previously FDA emergency use authorized SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody therapies. Furthermore, those approved antibodies with neutralizing activity against Omicron BA.1 are reportedly ineffective against the subset of Omicron subvariants that contain a R346K substitution, BA.1.1, and the more recently emergent BA.2, demonstrating the continued need for discovery and characterization of candidate therapeutic antibodies with the breadth and potency of neutralizing activity required to treat newly diagnosed COVID-19 linked to recently emerged variants of concern. METHODS: Following a campaign of antibody discovery based on the vaccination of Harbor H2L2 mice with defined SARS-CoV-2 spike domains, we have characterized the activity of a large collection of spike-binding antibodies and identified a lead neutralizing human IgG1 LALA antibody, STI-9167. FINDINGS: STI-9167 has potent, broad-spectrum neutralizing activity against the current SARS-COV-2 variants of concern and retained activity against each of the tested Omicron subvariants in both pseudotype and live virus neutralization assays. Furthermore, STI-9167 nAb administered intranasally or intravenously provided protection against weight loss and reduced virus lung titers to levels below the limit of quantitation in Omicron-infected K18-hACE2 transgenic mice. CONCLUSIONS: With this established activity profile, a cGMP cell line has been developed and used to produce cGMP drug product intended for intravenous or intranasal use in human clinical trials. FUNDING: Funded by CRIPT (no. 75N93021R00014), DARPA (HR0011-19-2-0020), and NCI Seronet (U54CA260560).

Non-respiratory particles emitted by guinea pigs in airborne disease transmission experiments.

Animal models are often used to assess the airborne transmissibility of various pathogens, which are typically assumed to be carried by expiratory droplets emitted directly from the respiratory tract of the infected animal. We recently established that influenza virus is also transmissible via "aerosolized fomites," micron-scale dust particulates released from virus-contaminated surfaces (Asadi et al. in Nat Commun 11(1):4062, 2020). Here we expand on this observation, by counting and characterizing the particles emitted from guinea pig cages using an Aerodynamic Particle Sizer (APS) and an Interferometric Mie Imaging (IMI) system. Of over 9000 airborne particles emitted from guinea pig cages and directly imaged with IMI, none had an interference pattern indicative of a liquid droplet. Separate measurements of the particle count using the APS indicate that particle concentrations spike upwards immediately following animal motion, then decay exponentially with a time constant commensurate with the air exchange rate in the cage. Taken together, the results presented here raise the possibility that a non-negligible fraction of airborne influenza transmission events between guinea pigs occurs via aerosolized fomites rather than respiratory droplets, though the relative frequencies of these two routes have yet to be definitively determined.

Expiratory aerosol particle escape from surgical masks due to imperfect sealing.

Wearing surgical masks or other similar face coverings can reduce the emission of expiratory particles produced via breathing, talking, coughing, or sneezing. Although it is well established that some fraction of the expiratory airflow leaks around the edges of the mask, it is unclear how these leakage airflows affect the overall efficiency with which masks block emission of expiratory aerosol particles. Here, we show experimentally that the aerosol particle concentrations in the leakage airflows around a surgical mask are reduced compared to no mask wearing, with the magnitude of reduction dependent on the direction of escape (out the top, the sides, or the bottom). Because the actual leakage flowrate in each direction is difficult to measure, we use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate flow-corrected particle emission rates for particles having diameters in the range 0.5-20 µm. in all orientations. From these, we derive a flow-weighted overall number-based particle removal efficiency for the mask. The overall mask efficiency, accounting both for air that passes through the mask and for leakage flows, is reduced compared to the through-mask filtration efficiency, from 93 to 70% for talking, but from only 94-90% for coughing. These results demonstrate that leakage flows due to imperfect sealing do decrease mask efficiencies for reducing emission of expiratory particles, but even with such leakage surgical masks provide substantial control.

The Effect of Convalescent Plasma Therapy on Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

To determine the effect of COVID-19 convalescent plasma on mortality, we aggregated patient outcome data from 10 randomized clinical trials, 20 matched control studies, 2 dose-response studies, and 96 case reports or case series. Studies published between January 1, 2020, and January 16, 2021, were identified through a systematic search of online PubMed and MEDLINE databases. Random effects analyses of randomized clinical trials and matched control data demonstrated that patients with COVID-19 transfused with convalescent plasma exhibited a lower mortality rate compared with patients receiving standard treatments. Additional analyses showed that early transfusion (within 3 days of hospital admission) of higher titer plasma is associated with lower patient mortality. These data provide evidence favoring the efficacy of human convalescent plasma as a therapeutic agent in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

The Effect of Convalescent Plasma Therapy on COVID-19 Patient Mortality: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

To determine the effect of COVID-19 convalescent plasma on mortality, we aggregated patient outcome data from 10 randomized clinical trials (RCT), 20 matched-control studies, two dose-response studies, and 96 case-reports or case series. Studies published between January 1, 2020 to January 16, 2021 were identified through a systematic search of online PubMed and MEDLINE databases. Random effects analyses of RCT and matched-control data demonstrated that COVID-19 patients transfused with convalescent plasma exhibited a lower mortality rate compared to patients receiving standard treatments. Additional analyses showed that early transfusion (within 3 days of hospital admission) of higher titer plasma is associated with lower patient mortality. These data provide evidence favoring the efficacy of human convalescent plasma as a therapeutic agent in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Individuals with Down syndrome hospitalized with COVID-19 have more severe disease.

PURPOSE: Rare genetic conditions like Down syndrome (DS) are historically understudied. Infection is a leading cause of mortality in DS, along with cardiac anomalies. Currently, it is unknown how the COVID-19 pandemic affects individuals with DS. Herein, we report an analysis of individuals with DS who were hospitalized with COVID-19 in New York, New York, USA. METHODS: In this retrospective, dual-center study of 7246 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, we analyzed all patients with DS admitted in the Mount Sinai Health System and Columbia University Irving Medical Center. We assessed hospitalization rates, clinical characteristics, and outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 12 patients with DS. Hospitalized individuals with DS are on average ten years younger than patients without DS. Patients with DS have more severe disease than controls, particularly an increased incidence of sepsis and mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate that individuals with DS who are hospitalized with COVID-19 are younger than their non-DS counterparts, and that they have more severe disease than age-matched controls. We conclude that particular care should be considered for both the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 in these patients.

Transfusion reactions associated with COVID-19 convalescent plasma therapy for SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma (CP) for treatment of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown preliminary signs of effectiveness in moderate to severely ill patients in reducing mortality. While studies have demonstrated a low risk of serious adverse events, the comprehensive incidence and nature of the spectrum of transfusion reactions to CP is unknown. We retrospectively examined 427 adult inpatient CP transfusions to determine incidence and types of reactions, as well as clinical parameters and risk factors associated with transfusion reactions. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis was performed for 427 transfusions to 215 adult patients with coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) within the Mount Sinai Health System, through the US Food and Drug Administration emergency investigational new drug and the Mayo Clinic Expanded Access Protocol to Convalescent Plasma approval pathways. Transfusions were blindly evaluated by two reviewers and adjudicated by a third reviewer in discordant cases. Patient demographics and clinical and laboratory parameters were compared and analyzed. RESULTS: Fifty-five reactions from 427 transfusions were identified (12.9% incidence), and 13 were attributed to transfusion (3.1% incidence). Reactions were classified as underlying COVID-19 (76%), febrile nonhemolytic (10.9%), transfusion-associated circulatory overload (9.1%), and allergic (1.8%) and hypotensive (1.8%) reactions. Statistical analysis identified increased transfusion reaction risk for ABO blood group B or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores of 12 to 13, and decreased risk within the age group of 80 to 89 years. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the use of CP as a safe, therapeutic option from a transfusion reaction perspective, in the setting of COVID-19. Further studies are needed to confirm the clinical significance of ABO group B, age, and predisposing disease severity in the incidence of transfusion reaction events.

Humoral response and PCR positivity in patients with COVID-19 in the New York City region, USA: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic. The proportion of infected individuals who seroconvert is still an open question. In addition, it has been shown in some individuals that viral genome can be detected up to 3 months after symptom resolution. We investigated both seroconversion and PCR positivity in a large cohort of convalescent serum donors in the New York City (NY, USA) region. METHODS: In this observational study, we ran an outreach programme in the New York City area. We recruited participants via the REDCap (Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA) online survey response. Individuals with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened via PCR for presence of viral genome and via ELISA for presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibodies. One-way ANOVA and Fisher's exact test were used to measure the association of age, gender, symptom duration, and days from symptom onset and resolution with positive antibody results. FINDINGS: Between March 26 and April 10, 2020, we measured SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres in 1343 people. Of the 624 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who had serologies done after 4 weeks, all but three seroconverted to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, whereas 269 (37%) of 719 participants with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection seroconverted. PCR positivity was detected up to 28 days from symptom resolution. INTERPRETATION: Most patients with confirmed COVID-19 seroconvert, potentially providing immunity to reinfection. We also report that in a large proportion of individuals, viral genome can be detected via PCR in the upper respiratory tract for weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unclear whether this signal represents infectious virus. Analysis of our large cohort suggests that most patients with mild COVID-19 seroconvert 4 weeks after illness, and raises questions about the use of PCR to clear positive individuals. FUNDING: None.

Efficacy of masks and face coverings in controlling outward aerosol particle emission from expiratory activities.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a surge in demand for facemasks to protect against disease transmission. In response to shortages, many public health authorities have recommended homemade masks as acceptable alternatives to surgical masks and N95 respirators. Although mask wearing is intended, in part, to protect others from exhaled, virus-containing particles, few studies have examined particle emission by mask-wearers into the surrounding air. Here, we measured outward emissions of micron-scale aerosol particles by healthy humans performing various expiratory activities while wearing different types of medical-grade or homemade masks. Both surgical masks and unvented KN95 respirators, even without fit-testing, reduce the outward particle emission rates by 90% and 74% on average during speaking and coughing, respectively, compared to wearing no mask, corroborating their effectiveness at reducing outward emission. These masks similarly decreased the outward particle emission of a coughing superemitter, who for unclear reasons emitted up to two orders of magnitude more expiratory particles via coughing than average. In contrast, shedding of non-expiratory micron-scale particulates from friable cellulosic fibers in homemade cotton-fabric masks confounded explicit determination of their efficacy at reducing expiratory particle emission. Audio analysis of the speech and coughing intensity confirmed that people speak more loudly, but do not cough more loudly, when wearing a mask. Further work is needed to establish the efficacy of cloth masks at blocking expiratory particles for speech and coughing at varied intensity and to assess whether virus-contaminated fabrics can generate aerosolized fomites, but the results strongly corroborate the efficacy of medical-grade masks and highlight the importance of regular washing of homemade masks.

Convalescent plasma treatment of severe COVID-19: a propensity score-matched control study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a new human disease with few effective treatments1. Convalescent plasma, donated by persons who have recovered from COVID-19, is the acellular component of blood that contains antibodies, including those that specifically recognize SARS-CoV-2. These antibodies, when transfused into patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, are thought to exert an antiviral effect, suppressing virus replication before patients have mounted their own humoral immune responses2,3. Virus-specific antibodies from recovered persons are often the first available therapy for an emerging infectious disease, a stopgap treatment while new antivirals and vaccines are being developed1,2. This retrospective, propensity score-matched case-control study assessed the effectiveness of convalescent plasma therapy in 39 patients with severe or life-threatening COVID-19 at The Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City. Oxygen requirements on day 14 after transfusion worsened in 17.9% of plasma recipients versus 28.2% of propensity score-matched controls who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 0.86; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.98; chi-square test P value = 0.025). Survival also improved in plasma recipients (adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 0.34; 95% CI, 0.13-0.89; chi-square test P = 0.027). Convalescent plasma is potentially effective against COVID-19, but adequately powered, randomized controlled trials are needed.

Influenza A virus is transmissible via aerosolized fomites.

Influenza viruses are presumed, but not conclusively known, to spread among humans by several possible routes. We provide evidence of a mode of transmission seldom considered for influenza: airborne virus transport on microscopic particles called "aerosolized fomites." In the guinea pig model of influenza virus transmission, we show that the airborne particulates produced by infected animals are mainly non-respiratory in origin. Surprisingly, we find that an uninfected, virus-immune guinea pig whose body is contaminated with influenza virus can transmit the virus through the air to a susceptible partner in a separate cage. We further demonstrate that aerosolized fomites can be generated from inanimate objects, such as by manually rubbing a paper tissue contaminated with influenza virus. Our data suggest that aerosolized fomites may contribute to influenza virus transmission in animal models of human influenza, if not among humans themselves, with important but understudied implications for public health.

Effect of voicing and articulation manner on aerosol particle emission during human speech.

Previously, we demonstrated a strong correlation between the amplitude of human speech and the emission rate of micron-scale expiratory aerosol particles, which are believed to play a role in respiratory disease transmission. To further those findings, here we systematically investigate the effect of different 'phones' (the basic sound units of speech) on the emission of particles from the human respiratory tract during speech. We measured the respiratory particle emission rates of 56 healthy human volunteers voicing specific phones, both in isolation and in the context of a standard spoken text. We found that certain phones are associated with significantly higher particle production; for example, the vowel /i/ ("need," "sea") produces more particles than /ɑ/ ("saw," "hot") or /u/ ("blue," "mood"), while disyllabic words including voiced plosive consonants (e.g., /d/, /b/, /g/) yield more particles than words with voiceless fricatives (e.g., /s/, /h/, /f/). These trends for discrete phones and words were corroborated by the time-resolved particle emission rates as volunteers read aloud from a standard text passage that incorporates a broad range of the phones present in spoken English. Our measurements showed that particle emission rates were positively correlated with the vowel content of a phrase; conversely, particle emission decreased during phrases with a high fraction of voiceless fricatives. Our particle emission data is broadly consistent with prior measurements of the egressive airflow rate associated with the vocalization of various phones that differ in voicing and articulation. These results suggest that airborne transmission of respiratory pathogens via speech aerosol particles could be modulated by specific phonetic characteristics of the language spoken by a given human population, along with other, more frequently considered epidemiological variables.

Mucosal Immunity against Neuraminidase Prevents Influenza B Virus Transmission in Guinea Pigs.

Despite efforts to control influenza virus infection and transmission, influenza viruses still cause significant morbidity and mortality in the global human population each year. Most of the current vaccines target the immunodominant hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein of the virus. However, reduced severity of disease and viral shedding have also been linked to antibodies targeting the second viral surface glycoprotein, the neuraminidase. Importantly, antineuraminidase immunity was shown to be relatively broad, in contrast to vaccine-induced antibodies to the hemagglutinin head domain. In this study, we assessed recombinant neuraminidase protein vaccination for its ability to prevent or limit virus transmission. We vaccinated guinea pigs either intramuscularly or intranasally with a recombinant influenza B virus neuraminidase to assess whether neuraminidase vaccination via these routes could prevent transmission of the homologous virus to a naive recipient. Guinea pigs vaccinated with neuraminidase showed reduced virus titers; however, only vaccination via the intranasal route fully prevented virus transmission to naive animals. We found high levels of antineuraminidase antibodies capable of inhibiting neuraminidase enzymatic activity in the nasal washes of intranasally vaccinated animals, which may explain the observed differences in transmission. We also determined that mucosal immunity to neuraminidase impaired the transmission efficiency of a heterologous influenza B virus, although to a lesser extent. Finally, we found that neuraminidase-vaccinated animals were still susceptible to infection via the airborne and contact transmission routes. However, significantly lower virus titers were detected in these vaccinated recipients. In summary, our data suggest that supplementing vaccine formulations with neuraminidase and vaccinating via the intranasal route may broadly prevent transmission of influenza B viruses.IMPORTANCE Recently, the protective effect of anti-neuraminidase immunity has been highlighted by several studies in humans and animal models. However, so far the role that anti-neuraminidase immunity plays in inhibition of virus transmission has not been explored. In addition, neuraminidase has been ignored as an antigen for influenza virus vaccines. We show here that neuraminidase-based vaccines can inhibit the transmission of influenza virus. Therefore, neuraminidase should be considered as an antigen for improved influenza virus vaccines that not only protect individuals from disease but also inhibit further spread of the virus in the population.

Aerosol emission and superemission during human speech increase with voice loudness.

Mechanistic hypotheses about airborne infectious disease transmission have traditionally emphasized the role of coughing and sneezing, which are dramatic expiratory events that yield both easily visible droplets and large quantities of particles too small to see by eye. Nonetheless, it has long been known that normal speech also yields large quantities of particles that are too small to see by eye, but are large enough to carry a variety of communicable respiratory pathogens. Here we show that the rate of particle emission during normal human speech is positively correlated with the loudness (amplitude) of vocalization, ranging from approximately 1 to 50 particles per second (0.06 to 3 particles per cm3) for low to high amplitudes, regardless of the language spoken (English, Spanish, Mandarin, or Arabic). Furthermore, a small fraction of individuals behaves as "speech superemitters," consistently releasing an order of magnitude more particles than their peers. Our data demonstrate that the phenomenon of speech superemission cannot be fully explained either by the phonic structures or the amplitude of the speech. These results suggest that other unknown physiological factors, varying dramatically among individuals, could affect the probability of respiratory infectious disease transmission, and also help explain the existence of superspreaders who are disproportionately responsible for outbreaks of airborne infectious disease.

The Future of Influenza Vaccines: A Historical and Clinical Perspective.

For centuries, the development of vaccines to prevent infectious disease was an empirical process. From smallpox variolation in Song dynasty China, through the polysaccharide capsule vaccines developed in the 1970s, vaccines were made either from the pathogen itself, treated in some way to render it attenuated or non-infectious, or from a closely related non-pathogenic strain. In recent decades, new scientific knowledge and technologies have enabled rational vaccine design in a way that was unimaginable before. However, vaccines optimal against some infectious diseases, influenza among them, have remained elusive. This review will highlight the challenges that influenza viruses pose for rational vaccine design. In particular, it will consider the clinically beneficial endpoints, beyond complete sterilizing immunity, that have been achieved with vaccines against other infectious diseases, as well as the barriers to achieving similar success against influenza.

Antigenic sites in influenza H1 hemagglutinin display species-specific immunodominance.

Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers are a major correlate of protection for influenza-related illness. The influenza virus hemagglutinin possesses antigenic sites that are the targets of HI active antibodies. Here, a panel of mutant viruses each lacking a classically defined antigenic site was created to compare the species-specific immunodominance of the antigenic sites in a clinically relevant hemagglutinin. HI active antibodies of antisera from influenza virus-infected mice targeted sites Sb and Ca2. HI active antibodies of guinea pigs were not directed against any specific antigenic site, although trends were observed toward Sb, Ca2, and Sa. HI titers of antisera from infected ferrets were significantly affected by site Sa. HI active antibodies of adult humans followed yet another immunodominance pattern, in which sites Sb and Sa were immunodominant. When comparing the HI profiles among different species by antigenic cartography, animals and humans grouped separately. This study provides characterizations of the antibody-mediated immune responses against the head domain of a recent H1 hemagglutinin in animals and humans.

An Amphibian Host Defense Peptide Is Virucidal for Human H1 Hemagglutinin-Bearing Influenza Viruses.

Although vaccines confer protection against influenza A viruses, antiviral treatment becomes the first line of defense during pandemics because there is insufficient time to produce vaccines. Current antiviral drugs are susceptible to drug resistance, and developing new antivirals is essential. We studied host defense peptides from the skin of the South Indian frog and demonstrated that one of these, which we named "urumin," is virucidal for H1 hemagglutinin-bearing human influenza A viruses. This peptide specifically targeted the conserved stalk region of H1 hemagglutinin and was effective against drug-resistant H1 influenza viruses. Using electron microscopy, we showed that this peptide physically destroyed influenza virions. It also protected naive mice from lethal influenza infection. Urumin represents a unique class of anti-influenza virucide that specifically targets the hemagglutinin stalk region, similar to targeting of antibodies induced by universal influenza vaccines. Urumin therefore has the potential to contribute to first-line anti-viral treatments during influenza outbreaks.