Temporal drivers of tryptophan-like fluorescent dissolved organic matter along a river continuum.

Tryptophan-like fluorescence (TLF) is used to indicate anthropogenic inputs of dissolved organic matter (DOM), typically from wastewater, in rivers. We hypothesised that other sources of DOM, such as groundwater and planktonic microbial biomass can also be important drivers of riverine TLF dynamics. We sampled 19 contrasting sites of the River Thames, UK, and its tributaries. Multivariate mixed linear models were developed for each site using 15 months of weekly water quality observations and with predictor variables selected according to the statistical significance of their linear relationship with TLF following a stepwise procedure. The variables considered for inclusion in the models were potassium (wastewater indicator), nitrate (groundwater indicator), chlorophyll-a (phytoplankton biomass), and Total bacterial Cells Counts (TCC) by flow cytometry. The wastewater indicator was included in the model of TLF at 89 % of sites. Groundwater was included in 53 % of models, particularly those with higher baseflow indices (0.50-0.86). At these sites, groundwater acted as a negative control on TLF, diluting other potential sources. Additionally, TCC was included positively in the models of six (32 %) sites. The models on the Thames itself using TCC were more rural sites with lower sewage inputs. Phytoplankton biomass (Chlorophyll-a) was only used in two (11 %) site models, despite the seasonal phytoplankton blooms. It is also notable that, the wastewater indicator did not always have the strongest evidence for inclusion in the models. For example, there was stronger evidence for the inclusion of groundwater and TCC than wastewater in 32 % and 5 % of catchments, respectively. Our study underscores the complex interplay of wastewater, groundwater, and planktonic microbes, driving riverine TLF dynamics, with their influence determined by site characteristics.

High-resolution characterization of short-term temporal variability in the taxonomic and resistome composition of wastewater influent.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) for population-level surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is gaining significant traction, but the impact of wastewater sampling methods on results is unclear. In this study, we characterized taxonomic and resistome differences between single-timepoint-grab and 24 h composites of wastewater influent from a large UK-based wastewater treatment work [WWTW (population equivalent: 223 435)]. We autosampled hourly influent grab samples (n=72) over three consecutive weekdays, and prepared additional 24 h composites (n=3) from respective grabs. For taxonomic profiling, metagenomic DNA was extracted from all samples and 16S rRNA gene sequencing was performed. One composite and six grabs from day 1 underwent metagenomic sequencing for metagenomic dissimilarity estimation and resistome profiling. Taxonomic abundances of phyla varied significantly across hourly grab samples but followed a repeating diurnal pattern for all 3 days. Hierarchical clustering grouped grab samples into four time periods dissimilar in both 16S rRNA gene-based profiles and metagenomic distances. 24H-composites resembled mean daily phyla abundances and showed low variability of taxonomic profiles. Of the 122 AMR gene families (AGFs) identified across all day 1 samples, single grab samples identified a median of six (IQR: 5-8) AGFs not seen in the composite. However, 36/36 of these hits were at lateral coverage <0.5 (median: 0.19; interquartile range: 0.16-0.22) and potential false positives. Conversely, the 24H-composite identified three AGFs not seen in any grab with higher lateral coverage (0.82; 0.55-0.84). Additionally, several clinically significant human AGFs (bla VIM, bla IMP, bla KPC) were intermittently or completely missed by grab sampling but captured by the 24 h composite. Wastewater influent undergoes significant taxonomic and resistome changes on short timescales potentially affecting interpretation of results based on sampling strategy. Grab samples are more convenient and potentially capture low-prevalence/transient targets but are less comprehensive and temporally variable. Therefore, we recommend 24H-composite sampling where feasible. Further validation and optimization of WBE methods is vital for its development into a robust AMR surveillance approach.

A case study: The deployment of a novel in situ fluorimeter for monitoring biological contamination within the urban surface waters of Kolkata, India.

The quality and health of many of our vital freshwater systems are poor. To tackle this with ever increasing pressures from anthropogenic and climatic changes, we must improve water quality monitoring and devise and implement more appropriate water quality parameters. Recent research has highlighted the potential for Peak T fluorescence (tryptophan-like fluorescence, TLF) to monitor microbial activity in aquatic systems. The VLux TPro (Chelsea Technologies Ltd., UK), an in situ real-time fluorimeter, was deployed in different urban freshwater bodies within Kolkata (West Bengal, India) during March 2019. This study is the first to apply this technology in surface waters within a densely populated urban area. Spot-sampling was also undertaken at 13 sampling locations enabling physicochemical analysis, bacterial enumeration and determination of nutrient (nitrate and phosphate) concentrations. This case study has demonstrated the ability of an in situ fluorimeter, VLux TPro, to successfully identify both biological contamination events and potential elevated microbial activity, related to nutrient loading, in complex surface freshwaters, without the need for expensive and time-consuming laboratory analysis.

Is meniscal status in the anterior cruciate ligament injured knee associated with change in bone surface area? An exploratory analysis of the KANON trial.

OBJECTIVES: To study bone shape changes as a potential early feature of post-traumatic structural knee OA development, we estimated the association between meniscal status in the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injured knee and longitudinal condyle changes in bone surface area. DESIGN: We used data from the KANON trial, including 121 young ACL-injured adults. We obtained baseline and 2-year follow-up knee MRIs. Our outcome was change in the bone surface areas (mean mm2, log-transformed) in 4 locations (femur, tibia, patella, and trochlea femur) in the medial and lateral compartment from baseline to 2 years. Meniscal pathology was defined as both present at baseline and newly developed (i.e., incident or progressed) using ACLOAS. We used multilevel linear regression adjusted for baseline bone area, age, sex, body mass index, treatment arm (i.e., early or optional delayed ACL reconstruction), and location. We analyzed medial and lateral compartment separately. We present results as percentage (%) bone area change difference with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: We analyzed 109 subjects (median 27 (18-36) years, 83% men) due to missing MRI information. The bone surface area increased on average by ∼2% over 2 years. The differences between knees with and without baseline meniscal pathology were 1.1% (95%CI 0.0-2.3%) and 1.4% (95%CI 0.6-2.2%) in the medial and lateral compartment, respectively, and 1.2% (95%CI 0.3-2.0%) and 1.3% (95%CI 0.6-2.0%) for medial and lateral newly developed pathology, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our finding of ∼1% increase bone area in compartment with meniscal pathology suggests a potentially important association between meniscal integrity and early bone surface area changes after ACL injury. Trial registration number ISRCTN 84752559.

Automated MRI assessment confirms cartilage thickness modification in patients with knee osteoarthritis: post-hoc analysis from a phase II sprifermin study.

BACKGROUND: Sprifermin is under investigation as a potential disease-modifying osteoarthritis drug. Previously, 2-year results from the FORWARD study showed significant dose-dependent modification of cartilage thickness in the total femorotibial joint (TFTJ), medial and lateral femorotibial compartments (MFTC, LFTC), and central medial and lateral TFTJ subregions, by quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (qMRI) using manual segmentation. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether qMRI findings from FORWARD could be reproduced by an independent method of automated segmentation using an identical dataset and similar anatomical regions in a post-hoc analysis. METHOD: Cartilage thickness was assessed at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, using automated cartilage segmentation with active appearance models, a supervised machine learning method. Images were blinded for treatment and timepoint. Treatment effect was assessed by observed and adjusted changes using a linear mixed model for repeated measures. RESULTS: Based on automated segmentation, statistically significant, dose-dependent structural modification of cartilage thickness was observed over 2 years with sprifermin vs placebo for TFTJ (overall treatment effect and dose response, both P < 0.001), MFTC (P = 0.004 and P = 0.044), and LFTC (both P < 0.001) regions. For highest dose, in the central medial tibial (P = 0.008), central lateral tibial (P < 0.001) and central lateral femoral (P < 0.001) regions. CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage thickness assessed by automated segmentation provided a consistent dose response in structural modification compared with manual segmentation. This is the first time that two independent quantification methods of image analysis have reached the same conclusions in an interventional trial, strengthening the conclusions that sprifermin modifies structural progression in knee osteoarthritis.

Using dissolved organic matter fluorescence to identify the provenance of nutrients in a lowland catchment; the River Thames, England.

Catchment based solutions are being sought to mitigate water quality pressures and achieve multiple benefits but their success depends on a sound understanding of catchment functioning. Novel approaches to monitoring and data analysis are urgently needed. In this paper we explore the potential of river water fluorescence at the catchment scale in understanding nutrient concentrations, sources and pathways. Data were collected from across the River Thames basin from January 2012 to March 2015. Analysing emission excitation matrices (EEMs) using both PARAFAC and optimal area averaging produced consistent results for humic-like component 1 and tryptophan-like component 4 in the absence of a subset of samples that exhibited an unusual peak; illustrating the importance of inspecting the entire EEM before using peak averaging methods. Strong relationships between fluorescence components and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and ammonium clearly demonstrated its potential, in this study basin, as a field based surrogate for nutrients. Analysing relationships between fluorescence, catchment characteristics and boron from across the basin enabled new insights into the provenance of nutrients. These include evidence for diffuse sources of DOC from near surface hydrological pathways (i.e. soil horizons); point source inputs of nutrients from sewage effluent discharges; and diffuse contributions of nutrients from agriculture and/or sewage (e.g. septic tanks). The information gained by broad scale catchment wide monitoring of fluorescence could support catchment managers in (a) prioritising subcatchments for nutrient mitigation; (b) providing information on relative nutrient source contributions; and (c) providing evidence of the effectiveness of investment in pollution mitigation measures. The collection of high resolution fluorescence data at the catchment scale and, in particular, over shorter event timescales would complement broad scale assessments by enhancing our hydro-biogeochemical process understanding.

Marked and rapid change of bone shape in acutely ACL injured knees - an exploratory analysis of the Kanon trial.

BACKGROUND: To investigate changes in knee 3D bone shape over the first 5 years after acute anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury in participants of the randomized controlled KANON-trial. METHODS: Serial MR images over 5 years from 121 young (32 women, mean age 26.1 years) adults with an acute ACL tear in a previously un-injured knee were analyzed using statistical shape models for bone. A matched reference cohort of 176 individuals was selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Primary endpoint was change in bone area of the medial femoral condyle; exploratory analyses compared results by treatment and examined other knee regions. Comparisons were made using repeated measures mixed model ANOVA with adjustment for age, sex and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Mean medial femur bone area increased 3.2% (78.0 [95% CI 70.2 to 86.4] mm2) over 5 years after ACL injury and most prominently in knees treated with ACL reconstruction (ACLR). A higher rate of increase occurred over the first 2 years compared to the latter 3-years (66.2 [59.3 to 73.2] vs 17.6 [12.2 to 23.0] mm2) and was 6.7 times faster than in the reference cohort. The pattern and location of shape change in the extrapolated KANON data was very similar to that observed in another knee-osteoarthritis cohort. CONCLUSION: 3D shape modelling after acute ACL injury revealed rapid bone shape changes, already evident at 3 months. The bone-change pattern after ACL injury demonstrated flattening and bone growth on the outer margins of the condyles similar to that reported in established knee osteoarthritis.

A novel application of remote sensing for modelling impacts of tree shading on water quality.

Uncertainty in capturing the effects of riparian tree shade for assessment of algal growth rates and water temperature hinders the predictive capability of models applied for river basin management. Using photogrammetry-derived tree canopy data, we quantified hourly shade along the River Thames (UK) and used it to estimate the reduction in the amount of direct radiation reaching the water surface. In addition we tested the suitability of freely-available LIDAR data to map ground elevation. Following removal of buildings and objects other than trees from the LIDAR dataset, results revealed considerable differences between photogrammetry- and LIDAR-derived methods in variables including mean canopy height (10.5 m and 4.0 m respectively), percentage occupancy of riparian zones by trees (45% and 16% respectively) and mid-summer fractional penetration of direct radiation (65% and 76% respectively). The generated data on daily direct radiation for 2010 were used as input to a river network water quality model (QUESTOR). Impacts of tree shading were assessed in terms of upper quartile levels, revealing substantial differences in indicators such as biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) (1.58-2.19 mg L-1 respectively) and water temperature (20.1 and 21.2 °C respectively) between 'shaded' and 'non-shaded' radiation inputs. Whilst the differences in canopy height and extent derived by the two methods are appreciable they only make small differences to water quality in the Thames. However such differences may prove more critical in smaller rivers. We highlight the importance of accurate estimation of shading in water quality modelling and recommend use of high resolution remotely sensed spatial data to characterise riparian canopies. Our paper illustrates how it is now possible to make better reach scale estimates of shade and make aggregations of these for use at river basin scale. This will allow provision of more effective guidance for riparian management programmes than currently possible. This is important to support adaptation to future warming and maintenance of water quality standards.

The relationship between two different measures of osteoarthritis bone pathology, bone marrow lesions and 3D bone shape: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: Bone shape and bone marrow lesions (BMLs) represent different features of Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-detected subchondral pathology in osteoarthritis (OA). The aim of this study was to determine how these features are related and how they change in OA progression. METHODS: 600 participants from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) FNIH Biomarkers Initiative were included, having Kellgren-Lawrence grade 1-3, at baseline and MRI data at baseline and 24 months. The associations between 3D quantitative bone shape vectors and presence of (MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score) MOAKS semi-quantitative BMLs (total BML size ≥1) were analysed for femurs and tibias using linear regression. Responsiveness over 24 months was calculated for both features in four pre-defined progression groups and reported as standardised response means (SRMs). Multilevel models investigated the longitudinal relationship between change in BML size and change in bone shape. RESULTS: Mean age was 61.5, 59% female and mean body mass index (BMI) 30.7. Correlation between baseline femur vector and BML was r = 0.28, P < 0.001. The presence of BMLs was associated with higher bone shape vector; coefficient (95% CI) 0.75 (0.54, 0.96) and 0.57 (0.38, 0.77) for femur and tibia respectively, both P < 0.001. After covariate adjustment, only the femur remained significant [coefficient 0.49, (95% CI 0.30, 0.68)]. Longitudinally bone vector demonstrated more responsiveness to change than BMLs (SRM 0.89 vs 0.13) while multilevel models revealed that increase in BML size was related to a more positive bone shape vector (representing worsening OA). CONCLUSION: There is a relationship between bone shape and BMLs, with prevalence of BMLs associated with increasing OA bone shape. Bone shape demonstrated greater responsiveness than semi-quantitative BMLs.

Phosphorus fluxes to the environment from mains water leakage: Seasonality and future scenarios.

Accurate quantification of sources of phosphorus (P) entering the environment is essential for the management of aquatic ecosystems. P fluxes from mains water leakage (MWL-P) have recently been identified as a potentially significant source of P in urbanised catchments. However, both the temporal dynamics of this flux and the potential future significance relative to P fluxes from wastewater treatment works (WWT-P) remain poorly constrained. Using the River Thames catchment in England as an exemplar, we present the first quantification of both the seasonal dynamics of current MWL-P fluxes and future flux scenarios to 2040, relative to WWT-P loads and to P loads exported from the catchment. The magnitude of the MWL-P flux shows a strong seasonal signal, with pipe burst and leakage events resulting in peak P fluxes in winter (December, January, February) that are >150% of fluxes in either spring (March, April, May) or autumn (September, October, November). We estimate that MWL-P is equivalent to up to 20% of WWT-P during peak leakage events. Winter rainfall events control temporal variation in both WWT-P and riverine P fluxes which consequently masks any signal in riverine P fluxes associated with MWL-P. The annual average ratio of MWL-P flux to WWT-P flux is predicted to increase from 15 to 38% between 2015 and 2040, associated with large increases in P removal at wastewater treatment works by 2040 relative to modest reductions in mains water leakage. However, further research is required to understand the fate of MWL-P in the environment. Future P research and management programmes should more fully consider MWL-P and its seasonal dynamics, alongside the likely impacts of this source of P on water quality.

Bisphosphonates intake and its association with changes of periarticular bone area and three-dimensional shape: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between bisphosphonate treatment with the change of periarticular bone area and three-dimensional (3D) shape in participants of the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. DESIGN: Using propensity score (PS) matching method in females, 48 bisphosphonate users and 105 non-users, who were matched for osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis (OP) related factors were included. Baseline and 24-month magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based periarticular bone area and 3D shape measurements were used. The association between bisphosphonate intake and 24-month interval changes of the periarticular bone area and 3D shape were evaluated using paired Wilcoxon signed rank test. We used conditional logistic regression models for determining the association between bisphosphonate intake and periarticular bone change, defined using the standard deviation of difference (SDD) and reliable change index (RCI) methods. P-values have been adjusted for multiple comparisons using Benjamini & Hochberg procedure and false discovery rate (FDR)-adjusted P-values were reported. RESULTS: The 24-month interval increases in the periarticular bone area in medial side of tibia were significantly greater in non-users than users (FDR-adjusted P-value: 0.002). There was an approaching significance trend for lower medial tibial periarticular bone area expansion in bisphosphonate users in comparison with non-users (For 1SDD change, odds ratio 95% confidence interval (OR (95% CI)): 0.514 (0.271-0.975), FDR-adjusted P-value: 0.085) (For 1.96RCI change, OR (95% CI): 0.552 (0.309-0.986), FDR-adjusted P-value: 0.085). CONCLUSIONS: Bisphosphonate intake was associated with a reduction in the odds (approaching but not achieving significance) of expansion periarticular bone area, specifically in the medial tibial sub-region.

Where does meniscal damage progress most rapidly? An analysis using three-dimensional shape models on data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

OBJECTIVES: Meniscal pathology is integral to knee osteoarthritis (OA) and its progression; it provides a progression biomarker and a potential treatment target. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrates large heterogeneity in meniscal damage; this structural complexity means measurement is difficult. The aim of this study was to apply novel 3D image analysis to determine which meniscal pathologies demonstrated most change during OA progression. METHODS: Knee images were selected from the progression cohort of the Osteoarthritis Initiative choosing participants with risk factors for medial OA progression. Medial and lateral menisci were manually segmented then analysed using a statistical shape model of the tibia as a reference surface. Responsiveness was assessed at 1 year using standardised response means (SRMs) for four constructs: meniscal volume, extrusion volume, thickness and tibial coverage; anatomical sub-regions of these constructs were also explored. RESULTS: Paired images from 86 participants (median age 61.5, 49% female, 56% obese) were included. Reliability of the novel meniscal measurements was very good intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs all > 0.98). Meniscal volume and extrusion demonstrated no significant change. Moderate responsiveness was observed for medial meniscus thickness (SRM -0.35) and medial tibial coverage (SRM -0.36). No substantial change was seen for the lateral meniscus measures. Sub-region analysis did not improve responsiveness; while greater change was seen in the posterior medial compartment, it was associated with increased variance of the change. CONCLUSIONS: The location of meniscal damage was consistently in the posterior medial region, and two measurements (thickness and tibial coverage) were most responsive. Meniscal measures should add to discriminatory power in OA progression assessment.

Characterisation of a major phytoplankton bloom in the River Thames (UK) using flow cytometry and high performance liquid chromatography.

Recent river studies have observed rapid phytoplankton dynamics, driven by diurnal cycling and short-term responses to storm events, highlighting the need to adopt new high-frequency characterisation methods to understand these complex ecological systems. This study utilised two such analytical methods; pigment analysis by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and cell counting by flow cytometry (FCM), alongside traditional chlorophyll spectrophotometry and light microscopy screening, to characterise the major phytoplankton bloom of 2015 in the River Thames, UK. All analytical techniques observed a rapid increase in chlorophyll a concentration and cell abundances from March to early June, caused primarily by a diatom bloom. Light microscopy identified a shift from pennate to centric diatoms during this period. The initial diatom bloom coincided with increased HPLC peridinin concentrations, indicating the presence of dinoflagellates which were likely to be consuming the diatom population. The diatom bloom declined rapidly in early June, coinciding with a storm event. There were low chlorophyll a concentrations (by both HPLC and spectrophotometric methods) throughout July and August, implying low biomass and phytoplankton activity. However, FCM revealed high abundances of pico-chlorophytes and cyanobacteria through July and August, showing that phytoplankton communities remain active and abundant throughout the summer period. In combination, these techniques are able to simultaneously characterise a wider range of phytoplankton groups, with greater certainty, and provide improved understanding of phytoplankton functioning (e.g. production of UV inhibiting pigments by cyanobacteria in response to high light levels) and ecological status (through examination of pigment degradation products). Combined HPLC and FCM analyses offer rapid and cost-effective characterisation of phytoplankton communities at appropriate timescales. This will allow a more-targeted use of light microscopy to capture phytoplankton peaks or to investigate periods of rapid community succession. This will lead to greater system understanding of phytoplankton succession in response to biogeochemical drivers.

Identifying multiple stressor controls on phytoplankton dynamics in the River Thames (UK) using high-frequency water quality data.

River phytoplankton blooms can pose a serious risk to water quality and the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Developing a greater understanding of the physical and chemical controls on the timing, magnitude and duration of blooms is essential for the effective management of phytoplankton development. Five years of weekly water quality monitoring data along the River Thames, southern England were combined with hourly chlorophyll concentration (a proxy for phytoplankton biomass), flow, temperature and daily sunlight data from the mid-Thames. Weekly chlorophyll data was of insufficient temporal resolution to identify the causes of short term variations in phytoplankton biomass. However, hourly chlorophyll data enabled identification of thresholds in water temperature (between 9 and 19°C) and flow (<30m(3)s(-1)) that explained the development of phytoplankton populations. Analysis showed that periods of high phytoplankton biomass and growth rate only occurred when these flow and temperature conditions were within these thresholds, and coincided with periods of long sunshine duration, indicating multiple stressor controls. Nutrient concentrations appeared to have no impact on the timing or magnitude of phytoplankton bloom development, but severe depletion of dissolved phosphorus and silicon during periods of high phytoplankton biomass may have contributed to some bloom collapses through nutrient limitation. This study indicates that for nutrient enriched rivers such as the Thames, manipulating residence time (through removing impoundments) and light/temperature (by increasing riparian tree shading) may offer more realistic solutions than reducing phosphorus concentrations for controlling excessive phytoplankton biomass.

Riparian shading controls instream spring phytoplankton and benthic algal growth.

Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations showed a striking pattern in a multi-year study of the River Enborne, a small river in SE England. In each of three years (2010-2012), maximum DO concentrations were attained in mid-April, preceded by a period of steadily increasing diurnal amplitudes, followed by a steady reduction in both amplitude and concentration. Flow events during the reduction period reduce DO to low concentrations until the following spring. Evidence is presented that this pattern is mainly due to benthic algal growth which is eventually suppressed by the growth of the riparian tree canopy. Nitrate and silicate concentrations are too high to inhibit the growth of either benthic algae or phytoplankton, but phosphate concentrations might have started to reduce growth if the tree canopy development had been delayed. This interpretation is supported by evidence from weekly flow cytometry measurements and analysis of the diurnal, seasonal and annual patterns of nutrient concentrations. As the tree canopy develops, the river switches from an autotrophic to a heterotrophic state. The results support the use of riparian shading to help control algal growth, and highlight the risks of reducing riparian shade.

Characterising phosphorus and nitrate inputs to a rural river using high-frequency concentration-flow relationships.

The total reactive phosphorus (TRP) and nitrate concentrations of the River Enborne, southern England, were monitored at hourly interval between January 2010 and December 2011. The relationships between these high-frequency nutrient concentration signals and flow were used to infer changes in nutrient source and dynamics through the annual cycle and each individual storm event, by studying hysteresis patterns. TRP concentrations exhibited strong dilution patterns with increasing flow, and predominantly clockwise hysteresis through storm events. Despite the Enborne catchment being relatively rural for southern England, TRP inputs were dominated by constant, non-rain-related inputs from sewage treatment works (STW) for the majority of the year, producing the highest phosphorus concentrations through the spring-summer growing season. At higher river flows, the majority of the TRP load was derived from within-channel remobilisation of phosphorus from the bed sediment, much of which was also derived from STW inputs. Therefore, future phosphorus mitigation measures should focus on STW improvements. Agricultural diffuse TRP inputs were only evident during storms in the May of each year, probably relating to manure application to land. The nitrate concentration-flow relationship produced a series of dilution curves, indicating major inputs from groundwater and to a lesser extent STW. Significant diffuse agricultural inputs with anticlockwise hysteresis trajectories were observed during the first major storms of the winter period. The simultaneous investigation of high-frequency time series data, concentration-flow relationships and hysteresis behaviour through multiple storms for both phosphorus and nitrate offers a simple and innovative approach for providing new insights into nutrient sources and dynamics.

The relationship between clinical characteristics, radiographic osteoarthritis and 3D bone area: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

BACKGROUND: Radiographic measures of osteoarthritis (OA) are based upon two dimensional projection images. Active appearance modelling (AAM) of knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) enables accurate, 3D quantification of joint structures in large cohorts. This cross-sectional study explored the relationship between clinical characteristics, radiographic measures of OA and 3D bone area (tAB). METHODS: Clinical data and baseline paired radiographic and MRI data, from the medial compartment of one knee of 2588 participants were obtained from the NIH Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). The medial femur (MF) and tibia (MT) tAB were calculated using AAM. 'OA-attributable' tAB (OA-tAB) was calculated using data from regression models of tAB of knees without OA. Associations between OA-tAB and radiographic measures of OA were investigated using linear regression. RESULTS: In univariable analyses, height, weight, and age in female knees without OA explained 43.1%, 32.1% and 0.1% of the MF tAB variance individually and 54.4% when included simultaneously in a multivariable model. Joint space width (JSW), osteophytes and sclerosis explained just 5.3%, 14.9% and 10.1% of the variance of MF OA-tAB individually and 17.4% when combined. Kellgren Lawrence (KL) grade explained approximately 20% of MF OA-tAB individually. Similar results were seen for MT OA-tAB. CONCLUSION: Height explained the majority of variance in tAB, confirming an allometric relationship between body and joint size. Radiographic measures of OA, derived from a single radiographic projection, accounted for only a small amount of variation in 3D knee OA-tAB. The additional structural information provided by 3D bone area may explain the lack of a substantive relationship with these radiographic OA measures.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system.

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Spatial and temporal changes in chlorophyll-a concentrations in the River Thames basin, UK: are phosphorus concentrations beginning to limit phytoplankton biomass?

Chlorophyll-a and nutrient concentrations were monitored at weekly intervals across 21 river sites throughout the River Thames basin, southern England, between 2009 and 2011. Despite a 90% decrease in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentration of the lower River Thames since the 1990s, very large phytoplankton blooms still occur. Chlorophyll concentrations were highest in the mid and lower River Thames and the larger tributaries. Lowest chlorophyll concentrations were observed in the smaller tributaries, despite some having very high phosphorus concentrations of over 300 µg l(-1). There was a strong positive correlation between river length and mean chlorophyll concentration (R(2)=0.82), and rivers connected to canals had ca. six times greater chlorophyll concentration than 'natural' rivers with similar phosphorus concentrations, indicating the importance that residence time has on determining phytoplankton biomass. Phosphorus concentration did have some influence, with phosphorus-enriched rivers having much larger phytoplankton blooms than nutrient-poor rivers of a similar length. Water quality improvements may now be capping chlorophyll peaks in the Rivers Thames and Kennet, due to SRP depletion during the spring/early summer phytoplankton bloom period. Dissolved reactive silicon was also depleted to potentially-limiting concentrations for diatom growth in the River Thames during these phytoplankton blooms, but nitrate remained in excess for all rivers throughout the study period. Other potential mitigation measures, such as increasing riparian shading and reducing residence times by removing impoundments may be needed, alongside phosphorus mitigation, to reduce the magnitude of phytoplankton blooms in the future.