A generalized framework for estimating snakebite underreporting using statistical models: A study in Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease affecting deprived populations, and its burden is underestimated in some regions where patients prefer using traditional medicine, case reporting systems are deficient, or health systems are inaccessible to at-risk populations. Thus, the development of strategies to optimize disease management is a major challenge. We propose a framework that can be used to estimate total snakebite incidence at a fine political scale. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: First, we generated fine-scale snakebite risk maps based on the distribution of venomous snakes in Colombia. We then used a generalized mixed-effect model that estimates total snakebite incidence based on risk maps, poverty, and travel time to the nearest medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with snakebite data in Colombia from 2010 to 2019 using the Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo algorithm. Our results suggest that 10.19% of total snakebite cases (532.26 yearly envenomings) are not reported and these snakebite victims do not seek medical attention, and that populations in the Orinoco and Amazonian regions are the most at-risk and show the highest percentage of underreporting. We also found that variables such as precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter influences the suitability of environments for venomous snakes rather than absolute temperature or rainfall. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our framework permits snakebite underreporting to be estimated using data on snakebite incidence and surveillance, presence locations for the most medically significant venomous snake species, and openly available information on population size, poverty, climate, land cover, roads, and the locations of medical centers. Thus, our algorithm could be used in other countries to estimate total snakebite incidence and improve disease management strategies; however, this framework does not serve as a replacement for a surveillance system, which should be made a priority in countries facing similar public health challenges.

ID please: Evaluating the utility of Facebook as a source of data for snake research and conservation.

Social media has the potential to provide large amounts of biological data, especially for notoriously difficult groups of organisms to study in nature such as snakes. Here, we explored the utility of various Facebook communities to provide data for research on Colombian snakes. Specifically, we determined the richness, distribution, rarity, and popularity of snake species and compiled information on natural history observations and human-snake interactions. We also explored the spatial structure of posts using a geographically weighted regression model. Queries relating to species identifications made up 86.1% of Facebook posts. The portion of the snake community "sampled" by snake-related Facebook posts was not representative of the total richness of snake species in Colombia; however, these posts permitted a greater proportion of snake species to be sampled more rapidly compared with traditional snake sampling approaches. Facebook posts provided new distributional records for 9-21% of Colombian snake species. Rainfall, rural population, and internet availability were the strongest predictors of snake-related Facebook posts. Although the use of Facebook for compiling information on snakes is not free of bias, our findings demonstrate that Facebook communities provide a potentially powerful source of data that could aid studies of snake biology.

Disentangling snakebite dynamics in Colombia: How does rainfall and temperature drive snakebite temporal patterns?

The role of climate driving zoonotic diseases' population dynamics has typically been addressed via retrospective analyses of national aggregated incidence records. A central question in epidemiology has been whether seasonal and interannual cycles are driven by climate variation or generated by socioeconomic factors. Here, we use compartmental models to quantify the role of rainfall and temperature in the dynamics of snakebite, which is one of the primary neglected tropical diseases. We took advantage of space-time datasets of snakebite incidence, rainfall, and temperature for Colombia and combined it with stochastic compartmental models and iterated filtering methods to show the role of rainfall-driven seasonality modulating the encounter frequency with venomous snakes. Then we identified six zones with different rainfall patterns to demonstrate that the relationship between rainfall and snakebite incidence was heterogeneous in space. We show that rainfall only drives snakebite incidence in regions with marked dry seasons, where rainfall becomes the limiting resource, while temperature does not modulate snakebite incidence. In addition, the encounter frequency differs between regions, and it is higher in regions where Bothrops atrox can be found. Our results show how the heterogeneous spatial distribution of snakebite risk seasonality in the country may be related to important traits of venomous snakes' natural history.

Morphology and seasonality of the sexual segment of the kidney in genus Bothrops snakes.

In Squamata, the sexual segment of the male kidney (SSK) produces secretory granules that are transmitted to the female tract during copulation. Here, we investigate the morphology of SSK in various species of the pitviper-genus Bothrops, a medically relevant clade of Neotropical snakes, using histology, histochemistry, as well as scanning and transmission electron microscopy. We also evaluated the relationship of SSK hypertrophy with spermatogenesis and storage of sperm. The SSK in Bothrops consists of tall columnar epithelial cells filled with electron-dense secretory granules. These granules are apparently released into the lumen by an apocrine secretory process. In general, the ultrastructural morphology of SSK in Bothrops is similar to those described for other pitvipers in the genus Agkistrodon. In most Bothrops males, the SSK produces carbohydrates and proteins, and occurs in all lobes of the kidney, occupying most of the kidney mass. In contrast, intersexual females (with male copulatory organs) of Bothrops insularis had a smaller SSK diameter than males and did not show hypertrophy. The seasonal development of SSK in Bothrops species seems to be driven by environmental factors rather than phylogeny, since sister species exhibited periods of hypertrophy at different months. In most Bothrops males, hypertrophy occurs at various seasons of the year (spring, summer, autumn), even in winter, and seasonal changes in SSK do not necessarily accompany spermatogenesis.

Promoting co-existence between humans and venomous snakes through increasing the herpetological knowledge base.

Snakebite incidence at least partly depends on the biology of the snakes involved. However, studies of snake biology have been largely neglected in favour of anthropic factors, with the exception of taxonomy, which has been recognised for some decades to affect the design of antivenoms. Despite this, within-species venom variation and the unpredictability of the correlation with antivenom cross-reactivity has continued to be problematic. Meanwhile, other aspects of snake biology, including behaviour, spatial ecology and activity patterns, distribution, and population demography, which can contribute to snakebite mitigation and prevention, remain underfunded and understudied. Here, we review the literature relevant to these aspects of snakebite and illustrate how demographic, spatial, and behavioural studies can improve our understanding of why snakebites occur and provide evidence for prevention strategies. We identify the large gaps that remain to be filled and urge that, in the future, data and relevant metadata be shared openly via public data repositories so that studies can be properly replicated and data used in future meta-analyses.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction.

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

Morphology and seasonality of the sexual segment of the kidney in genus Bothrops snakes

In Squamata, the sexual segment of the male kidney (SSK) produces secretory granules that are transmitted to the female tract during copulation. Here, we investigate the morphology of SSK in various species of the pitviper-genus Bothrops, a medically relevant clade of Neotropical snakes, using histology, histochemistry, as well as scanning and transmission electron microscopy. We also evaluated the relationship of SSK hypertrophy with spermatogenesis and storage of sperm. The SSK in Bothrops consists of tall columnar epithelial cells filled with electron-dense secretory granules. These granules are apparently released into the lumen by an apocrine secretory process. In general, the ultrastructural morphology of SSK in Bothrops is similar to those described for other pitvipers in the genus Agkistrodon. In most Bothrops males, the SSK produces carbohydrates and proteins, and occurs in all lobes of the kidney, occupying most of the kidney mass. In contrast, intersexual females (with male copulatory organs) of Bothrops insularis had a smaller SSK diameter than males and did not show hypertrophy. The seasonal development of SSK in Bothrops species seems to be driven by environmental factors rather than phylogeny, since sister species exhibited periods of hypertrophy at different months. In most Bothrops males, hypertrophy occurs at various seasons of the year (spring, summer, autumn), even in winter, and seasonal changes in SSK do not necessarily accompany spermatogenesis.

Estimating snakebite incidence from mathematical models: A test in Costa Rica.

BACKGROUND: Snakebite envenoming is a neglected public health challenge that affects mostly economically deprived communities who inhabit tropical regions. In these regions, snakebite incidence data is not always reliable, and access to health care is scare and heterogeneous. Thus, addressing the problem of snakebite effectively requires an understanding of how spatial heterogeneity in snakebite is associated with human demographics and snakes' distribution. Here, we use a mathematical model to address the determinants of spatial heterogeneity in snakebite and we estimate snakebite incidence in a tropical country such as Costa Rica. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We combined a mathematical model that follows the law of mass action, where the incidence is proportional to the exposed human population and the venomous snake population, with a spatiotemporal dataset of snakebite incidence (Data from year 1990 to 2007 for 193 districts) in Costa Rica. This country harbors one of the most dangerous venomous snakes, which is the Terciopelo (Bothrops asper, Garman, 1884). We estimated B. asper distribution using a maximum entropy algorithm, and its abundance was estimated based on field data. Then, the model was adjusted to the data using a lineal regression with the reported incidence. We found a significant positive correlation (R2 = 0.66, p-value < 0.01) between our estimation and the reported incidence, suggesting the model has a good performance in estimating snakebite incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our model underscores the importance of the synergistic effect of exposed population size and snake abundance on snakebite incidence. By combining information from venomous snakes' natural history with census data from rural populations, we were able to estimate snakebite incidence in Costa Rica. The model was able to fit the incidence data at fine administrative scale (district level), which is fundamental for the implementation and planning of management strategies oriented to reduce snakebite burden.