Long-Term Effectiveness and Durability of COVID-19 Vaccination Among Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 vaccination prevents severe disease in most patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), but immunosuppressive medications can blunt serologic response. We followed adults with IBD for >1 year post-COVID-19 vaccination to describe factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination, evaluate for a protective SARS-CoV-2 antibody level, characterize SARS-CoV-2 antibody persistence, and identify factors associated with humoral immune response durability. METHODS: Using a prospective cohort of COVID-19 immunized adults with IBD, we analyzed factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination. We evaluated for an association between SARS-CoV-2 antibody level 12 weeks postvaccination and subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection and assessed for a threshold of protection using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. We then conducted a separate analysis evaluating factors associated with persistence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies 52 weeks postimmunization. RESULTS: Almost half (43%) of 1869 participants developed COVID-19 after vaccination, but most infections were mild, and <1% required hospitalization. Older age and corticosteroid use were associated with a decreased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection postvaccination (50-59 years of age vs 18-29 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-0.74; steroid users vs nonusers: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.87). Most (98%) participants had detectable antibody levels at 52 weeks postvaccination. Antibody levels at 12 weeks and number of vaccine doses were positively associated with higher antibody levels at 52 weeks, while anti-tumor necrosis factor α therapy was negatively associated. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination generates an effective and durable protective response for the vast majority of adults with IBD, including vulnerable populations such as corticosteroid users and older individuals. Patients with IBD benefit from COVID-19 booster vaccination.

Computerized-adaptive testing versus short forms for pediatric inflammatory bowel disease patient-reported outcome assessment.

Introduction: Computerized-adaptive testing (CAT) may increase reliability or reduce respondent burden for assessing patient-reported outcomes compared with static short forms (SFs). We compared CAT versus SF administration of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System® (PROMIS®) Pediatric measures in pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Participants completed 4-item CAT, 5- or 6-item CAT, and 4-item SF versions of the PROMIS Pediatric measures. We compared average T-scores, intra-class correlations (ICCs), floor and ceiling effects, and standard error of measurement (SEM) across forms, along with mean effect sizes between active versus quiescent IBD disease activity groups. Results: Average PROMIS T-scores across forms were <3 points (minimally important difference) of each other. All forms correlated highly with each other (ICCs ≥0.90) and had similar ceiling effects, but the CAT-5/6 had lower floor effects. The CAT-5/6 had lower SEM than the CAT-4 and SF-4, and the CAT-4 had a lower SEM than the SF-4. Mean effect sizes were similar across forms when contrasting disease activity groups. Conclusions: The CAT and SF forms produced similar score results, but the CAT had better precision and lower floor effects. Researchers should consider PROMIS pediatric CAT if they anticipate that their sample will skew toward symptom extremes.

Development of an Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Specific Medication Adherence Instrument and Reasons for Non-adherence.

BACKGROUND: Medication adherence impacts disease control in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Existing adherence measures such as the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale 8© are often costly, non-medication-specific, and time-consuming. AIMS: We aimed to develop a non-proprietary, IBD-specific medication adherence instrument and to assess reasons for suboptimal medication adherence. METHODS: We developed the IBD Medication Adherence Tool to assess frequency of adherence and indications for missed or delayed medication doses. We co-administered the IBD Medication Adherence Tool and the Morisky Medication Adherence Scale 8© (licensed for use) to participants enrolled in an internet-based cohort of adults with IBD and taking least one daily, oral IBD medication. We used Spearman's correlation to evaluate associations between the IBD Medication Adherence Tool and Morisky Medication Adherence Scale 8©. We then categorized patients as sub-optimally adherent (IBD Medication Adherence Tool score 1-4) and highly adherent (score 5) and evaluated factors associated with and reasons for suboptimal adherence using multivariable analysis. RESULTS: We evaluated 514 patients (73% female, mean age 49), of whom 21.4% had suboptimal adherence. IBD Medication Adherence Tool scores were moderately correlated with Morisky Medication Adherence Scale 8© (r = 0.56, p < 0.001). The most commonly reported reasons for suboptimal adherence were forgetting, feeling well, and cost. Younger age and current smoking were associated with suboptimal adherence. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a non-proprietary, IBD-specific tool to assess adherence to IBD medications, validated in a cohort of patients with IBD on daily, oral medications. Common reasons for suboptimal IBD medication adherence include forgetting, feeling well, and cost.

The safe use of inflammatory bowel disease therapies during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) often require the use of immunosuppressant medications that increase infection risk, leading to concerns over the safe use of IBD medications during the Coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) pandemic. Objectives: To summarize available evidence on the safety and appropriate use of IBD medications during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in regard to risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes such as hospitalization, respiratory failure, or death for patients on IBD therapeutics. Conclusions: The majority of IBD medications are safe to continue during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a few notable exceptions. Patients with IBD who do not have COVID-19 should continue their prescribed IBD therapies, although steroids are associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be weaned when possible. Corticosteroids should be tapered and discontinued when possible in patients with IBD who test positive for COVID-19 as well. Patients with IBD who test positive for COVID-19 should hold biologics, thiopurines, methotrexate, and tofacitinib for at least 2 weeks, and those who have symptoms should not restart these medications until symptom resolution. During the COVID-19 pandemic, all patients with IBD should continue to follow public health guidance including social distancing, masking, and COVID-19 vaccination recommendations.

The Multiple Waves of COVID-19 in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Temporal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have emerged in discrete waves. We explored temporal trends in the reporting of COVID-19 in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. METHODS: The Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (SECURE-IBD) is an international registry of IBD patients diagnosed with COVID-19. The average percent changes (APCs) were calculated in weekly reported cases of COVID-19 during the periods of March 22 to September 12, September 13 to December 12, 2020, and December 13 to July 31, 2021. RESULTS: Across 73 countries, 6404 cases of COVID-19 were reported in IBD patients. COVID-19 reporting decreased globally by 4.2% per week (95% CI, -5.3% to -3.0%) from March 22 to September 12, 2020, then climbed by 10.2% per week (95% CI, 8.1%-12.3%) from September 13 to December 12, 2020, and then declined by 6.3% per week (95% CI, -7.8% to -4.7%). In the fall of 2020, weekly reporting climbed in North America (APC, 11.3%; 95% CI, 8.8-13.8) and Europe (APC, 17.7%; 95% CI, 12.1%-23.5%), whereas reporting was stable in Asia (APC, -8.1%; 95% CI, -15.6-0.1). From December 13, 2020, to July 31, 2021, reporting of COVID-19 in those with IBD declined in North America (APC, -8.5%; 95% CI, -10.2 to -6.7) and Europe (APC, -5.4%; 95% CI, -7.2 to -3.6) and was stable in Latin America (APC, -1.5%; 95% CI, -3.5% to 0.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Temporal trends in reporting of COVID-19 in those with IBD are consistent with the epidemiological patterns COVID-19 globally.

Inflammatory Bowel Disease Clinical Activity is Associated with COVID-19 Severity Especially in Younger Patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Age is a major prognostic factor for COVID-19 outcomes. The effect of inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] activity on COVID-19 is unclear. We examined the relationship between IBD activity and COVID-19 severity according to age. METHODS: We included IBD patients diagnosed with COVID-19, reported to SECURE-IBD between March 13, 2020 and August 3, 2021. Clinical IBD activity was measured by physician global assessment [PGA]. COVID-19-related outcomes were [1] intensive care unit [ICU] admission, ventilation or death, and [2] hospitalization. Using generalized estimating equations, we determined adjusted odds ratios [aOR, 95% confidence interval] for moderate and severe PGA vs clinical remission/mild PGA, controlling for demographics, medications and COVID-19 diagnosis period. We performed stratified analyses by age [≤50 vs >50 years]. RESULTS: Among 6078 patients, adverse COVID-19 outcomes were more common with active IBD: ICU/ventilation/death in 3.6% [175/4898] of remission/mild, 4.9% [45/920] of moderate and 8.8% [23/260] of severe [p < 0.001]; and hospitalization in 13% [649/4898] of remission/mild, 19% [178/920] of moderate and 38% [100/260] of severe [p < 0.001]. Stratified by decade, effect sizes were larger for younger patients. In patients ≤50 years, severe PGA was independently associated with ICU/ventilation/death (aOR 3.27 [1.15-9.30]) and hospitalization (aOR 4.62 [2.83-7.55]). In contrast, severe PGA was not independently associated with COVID-19 outcomes in those older than 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Clinically active IBD may be a risk factor for severe COVID-19, particularly in younger patients. IBD disease control, including through medication compliance, and strategies to mitigate the risk of COVID-19 infection amongst patients with active IBD [e.g. distancing, immunization] are key to limit adverse COVID-19 outcomes.

Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Are Not Associated With Future Pediatric Crohn's Disease Activity.

BACKGROUND: Studies of adults with Crohn's disease (CD) suggest that poor mental health precedes worsening disease activity. We evaluated whether depression and/or anxiety forecast worsening pediatric CD disease activity. METHODS: Through the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Partners Kids & Teens internet-based cohort, children with CD age 9 to 17 completed Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Pediatric measures and the short Crohn's disease activity index (sCDAI). Using general linear models, we examined how baseline PROMIS Pediatric anxiety and depressive symptom scores independently associate with subsequent sCDAI scores (average survey interval 6.4 months). Models included baseline PROMIS Pediatric anxiety and depressive symptoms scores, baseline sCDAI, sex, age, parental education, race/ethnicity, and prior IBD-related surgery. We performed a post hoc subanalysis of children in baseline remission (sCDAI <150) with otherwise identical models. RESULTS: We analyzed 159 children with CD (mean age 14 years, 45% female, 84% in baseline remission). We found no association between baseline PROMIS Pediatric anxiety score and subsequent sCDAI (change in sCDAI for 3-point change in PROMIS Pediatric -0.89; 95% CI -4.81 to 3.03). Baseline PROMIS Pediatric depressive symptoms score was not associated with future sCDAI (change in sCDAI for 3-point change in PROMIS Pediatric <0.01; 95% CI -4.54 to 4.53). In a subanalysis of patients in remission at baseline, the lack of association remained. CONCLUSION: We found that neither anxiety nor depressive symptoms associate with subsequent disease activity in pediatric CD. These findings contrast with adult IBD studies, thus underschoring the unique pathophysiology, natural history, and outcomes of pediatric CD.

Presence of Comorbidities Associated with Severe Coronavirus Infection in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities increase the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalization and mortality. As many comorbidities are common in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD), we sought to investigate the effects of comorbidities in these patients on infection severity. AIM: To evaluate association between individual comorbidities and COVID-19 infection severity among patients with IBD. METHODS: Data were obtained from SECURE-IBD, an international registry created to evaluate COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD. We used multivariable regression to analyze associations between eleven non-IBD comorbidities and a composite primary outcome of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death. Comorbidities were first modeled individually, adjusting for potential confounders. Next, to determine the independent effect of comorbidities, we fit a model including all comorbidities as covariates. RESULTS: We analyzed 2,035 patients from 58 countries (mean age 42.7 years, 50.6% male). A total of 538 patients (26.4%) experienced severe COVID-19. All comorbidities but a history of stroke and obesity were associated with severe infection in our initial analysis, with adjusted odds ratios ranging from 1.9 to 3.7. In a model including all comorbidities significantly associated with the composite outcome in the initial analysis, as well as other confounders, most comorbidities remained significant, with the highest risk in chronic kidney disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. CONCLUSION: Many non-IBD comorbidities are associated with a two to threefold increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death among patients with IBD. These data can be used to risk-stratify and guide treatment and lifestyle decisions during the ongoing pandemic.

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD.

OBJECTIVES: Develop an individualised prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). DESIGN AND SETTING: This study developed and validated prognostic penalised logistic regression models using reports to the international Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease voluntary registry from March to October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported 13 March-15 September 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported 16 September-20 October 2020). PARTICIPANTS: We included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years (SD 18), 50.2% male). All submitted cases after removing duplicates were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 related: (1) Hospitalisation+: composite outcome of hospitalisation, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (2) Intensive Care Unit+ (ICU+): composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation or death; (3) Death. We assessed the resulting models' discrimination using the area under the curve of the receiver operator characteristic curves and reported the corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of the submitted cases, a total of 633 (24%) were hospitalised, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set. The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set area under the curve (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75 to 0.83) for Hospitalisation+, 0.88 (0.82 to 0.95) for ICU+ and 0.94 (0.89 to 0.99) for Death. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use and male gender were associated with a higher risk of death, while the use of biological therapies was associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for COVID-19-related adverse outcomes in a population of patients with IBD. A free online risk calculator (https://covidibd.org/covid-19-risk-calculator/) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to COVID-19 with patients with IBD.

Association Between Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitors and the Risk of Hospitalization or Death Among Patients With Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Disease and COVID-19.

Importance: Although tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors are widely prescribed globally because of their ability to ameliorate shared immune pathways across immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs), the impact of COVID-19 among individuals with IMIDs who are receiving TNF inhibitors remains insufficiently understood. Objective: To examine the association between the receipt of TNF inhibitor monotherapy and the risk of COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among adult patients with IMIDs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was a pooled analysis of data from 3 international COVID-19 registries comprising individuals with rheumatic diseases, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis from March 12, 2020, to February 1, 2021. Clinicians directly reported COVID-19 outcomes as well as demographic and clinical characteristics of individuals with IMIDs and confirmed or suspected COVID-19 using online data entry portals. Adults (age ≥18 years) with a diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, or psoriasis were included. Exposures: Treatment exposure categories included TNF inhibitor monotherapy (reference treatment), TNF inhibitors in combination with methotrexate therapy, TNF inhibitors in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy, methotrexate monotherapy, azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy, and Janus kinase (Jak) inhibitor monotherapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was COVID-19-associated hospitalization or death. Registry-level analyses and a pooled analysis of data across the 3 registries were conducted using multilevel multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics and accounting for country, calendar month, and registry-level correlations. Results: A total of 6077 patients from 74 countries were included in the analyses; of those, 3215 individuals (52.9%) were from Europe, 3563 individuals (58.6%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 48.8 (16.5) years. The most common IMID diagnoses were rheumatoid arthritis (2146 patients [35.3%]) and Crohn disease (1537 patients [25.3%]). A total of 1297 patients (21.3%) were hospitalized, and 189 patients (3.1%) died. In the pooled analysis, compared with patients who received TNF inhibitor monotherapy, higher odds of hospitalization or death were observed among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine therapy (odds ratio [OR], 1.74; 95% CI, 1.17-2.58; P = .006), azathioprine/6-mercaptopurine monotherapy (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.30-2.61; P = .001), methotrexate monotherapy (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.57-2.56; P < .001), and Jak inhibitor monotherapy (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.21-2.73; P = .004) but not among those who received a TNF inhibitor in combination with methotrexate therapy (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.85-1.63; P = .33). Similar findings were obtained in analyses that accounted for potential reporting bias and sensitivity analyses that excluded patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis based on symptoms alone. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, TNF inhibitor monotherapy was associated with a lower risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes compared with other commonly prescribed immunomodulatory treatment regimens among individuals with IMIDs.

Peripheral eosinophilia and hypoalbuminemia are associated with a higher biopsy diagnostic yield for eosinophilic gastroenteritis.

BACKGROUND: Gastric and duodenal mucosa may appear normal in eosinophilic gastroenteritis (EGE). Adult gastroenterologists typically biopsy only in the setting of mucosal abnormalities or symptoms, while pediatric providers biopsy all patients. The biopsy yield of EGE has not been adequately evaluated. AIMS: To evaluate the biopsy yield of EGE in a pediatric cohort and assess predictors of increased biopsy yield. METHODS: We identified patients age 0-18 who underwent upper endoscopy. We recorded endoscopic findings, pathology, demographics, and clinical and laboratory characteristics. We identified EGE cases (>20 eosinophils per high-power field on stomach and/or duodenum biopsy). We compared characteristics between EGE and non-EGE cases, calculated biopsy diagnostic yield, and performed multivariate analysis for predictors of increased biopsy yield. RESULTS: In 509 patients (55.6% female, mean age 10.3 years, 69.7% white, 58.7% atopic), biopsy diagnostic yield for EGE was 1.2% (6/509) among all subjects, 7.7% (3/39) for those with peripheral eosinophilia (≥500 eos/uL), 9.1% (3/33) for those with hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dL), and 25.0% (3/12) for those with peripheral eosinophilia and hypoalbuminemia. The odds of EGE were 27.8 (95% CI 3.3-231.8) times greater among those with peripheral eosinophilia. The mean total biopsy surface area and number of fragments was similar between patients with and without EGE. The area under the ROC curve for blood eosinophil counts and albumin level for predicting EGE was 0.926. CONCLUSIONS: The biopsy diagnostic yield for EGE is low but increases with peripheral eosinophilia and hypoalbuminemia. Patients with these features should have biopsies obtained, regardless of endoscopic appearance.

COVID-19 Outcomes Among Racial and Ethnic Minority Individuals With Inflammatory Bowel Disease in the United States.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected more than 29 million people and led to more than 542,000 deaths in the United States.1 Older age, comorbidities, and racial and ethnic minority status are associated with severe COVID-19.2 Among patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), racial and ethnic minorities have worse outcomes, mediated in part by inequitable health care access.3 Racial and ethnic minority patients with IBD and COVID-19 may be an especially vulnerable population. The purpose of this study was to evaluate racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 outcomes among IBD patients and the impact of non-IBD comorbidities on observed disparities.

The Impact of Vedolizumab on COVID-19 Outcomes Among Adult IBD Patients in the SECURE-IBD Registry.

BACKGROUND: The impact of immune-modifying therapies on outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19] is variable. The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of vedolizumab [VDZ], a gut-selective anti-integrin, on COVID-19 outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD] patients. METHODS: Using data from the Surveillance of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for IBD [SECURE-IBD], an international registry of IBD patients with confirmed COVID-19, we studied the impact of VDZ on COVID-19 hospitalization and severe COVID-19 [intensive care unit stay, mechanical ventilation and/or death]. RESULTS: Of 3647 adult patients on any IBD medication in the registry, 457 [12.5%] patients were on VDZ. On multivariable analyses using backward selection of covariates, VDZ use was not associated with hospitalization or severe COVID-19 when compared with patients on all other medications (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71, 1.1 and aOR 0.95; 95% CI 0.53, 1.73, respectively). On comparing VDZ monotherapy to anti-tumour necrosis factor [anti-TNF] monotherapy, the odds for hospitalization, but not severe COVID-19, were higher [aOR CI 1.39; 95% CI 1.001, 1.90 and aOR 2.92; 95% CI 0.98, 8.71, respectively]. In an exploratory analysis, VDZ monotherapy, compared to anti-TNF monotherapy, was associated with new-onset gastrointestinal symptoms at the time of COVID-19, especially among patients whose IBD was in remission. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 outcomes among IBD patients on VDZ are comparable to those on all other therapies. Hospitalization, but not severe COVID-19, is more likely with VDZ monotherapy than with anti-TNF monotherapy. Overall, VDZ appears to be safe in IBD patients with COVID-19.

Validity and Responsiveness of the Patient-reported Outcomes Measurement Information System in Children With Ulcerative Colitis.

OBJECTIVES: Patient-reported outcome measures allow children to directly report on their health and well-being. We assessed the construct validity and responsiveness of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Pediatric measures in children and adolescents with ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: Through the Inflammatory Bowel Disease Partners Kids & Teens' Internet-based cohort, children with UC reported symptoms related to disease activity (Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index), IMPACT-III health-related quality of life measure, and 5 PROMIS Pediatric measures (anxiety, depressive symptoms, pain interference, fatigue, and peer relationships). We included participants aged 9 to 17 years and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal, mixed-linear regression analyses to examine the extent to which PROMIS Pediatric scores are associated with and respond to changes in Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index and IMPACT-III. RESULTS: We evaluated 91 participants with UC (mean age 13 years, 57% girls). Better PROMIS Pediatric scores were associated with lower disease activity, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. For a change from moderate/severe to remission, observed effect estimates were -5.1 points for anxiety, -5.0 for depressive symptoms, -14.7 for pain interference, -13.7 for fatigue, and 5.3 for peer relationships (P < 0.05 for all domains). Better PROMIS Pediatric scores were associated with improved IMPACT-III scores (P values <0.01), and changes in scores were moderately correlated with changes in IMPACT-III over time (adjusted P values <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence for the construct validity and longitudinal responsiveness of the PROMIS Pediatric measures in pediatric patients with UC, thus supporting their use in clinical research and patient care.

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models for adverse COVID-19 outcomes in IBD patients.

IMPORTANCE: Risk calculators can facilitate shared medical decision-making 1 . Demographics, comorbidities, medication use, geographic region, and other factors may increase the risk for COVID-19-related complications among patients with IBD 2,3 . OBJECTIVES: Develop an individualized prognostic risk prediction tool for predicting the probability of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in patients with IBD. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: This study developed and validated prognostic penalized logistic regression models 4 using reports to Surveillance Epidemiology of Coronavirus Under Research Exclusion for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (SECURE-IBD) from March-October 2020. Model development was done using a training data set (85% of cases reported March 13 - September 15, 2020), and model validation was conducted using a test data set (the remaining 15% of cases plus all cases reported September 16-October 20, 2020). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: COVID-19 related:Hospitalization+: composite outcome of hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or deathICU+: composite outcome of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, or deathDeathWe assessed the resulting models' discrimination using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves and reported the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We included 2709 cases from 59 countries (mean age 41.2 years [s.d. 18], 50.2% male). A total of 633 (24%) were hospitalized, 137 (5%) were admitted to the ICU or intubated, and 69 (3%) died. 2009 patients comprised the training set and 700 the test set.The models demonstrated excellent discrimination, with a test set AUC (95% CI) of 0.79 (0.75, 0.83) for Hospitalization+, 0.88 (0.82, 0.95) for ICU+, and 0.94 (0.89, 0.99) for Death. Age, comorbidities, corticosteroid use, and male gender were associated with higher risk of death, while use of biologic therapies was associated with a lower risk. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Prognostic models can effectively predict who is at higher risk for COVID-19-related adverse outcomes in a population of IBD patients. A free online risk calculator ( https://covidibd.org/covid-19-risk-calculator/ ) is available for healthcare providers to facilitate discussion of risks due to COVID-19 with IBD patients. The tool numerically and visually summarizes the patient's probabilities of adverse outcomes and associated CIs. Helping physicians identify their highest-risk patients will be important in the coming months as cases rise in the US and worldwide. This tool can also serve as a model for risk stratification in other chronic diseases. KEY POINTS: Question: How well can a multivariable risk model predict the risk of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) stay, or death due to COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD)?Findings: Multivariable prediction models developed using data from an international voluntary registry of IBD patients and available for use online ( https://covidibd.org/ ) have very good discrimination for predicting hospitalization (Test set AUC 0.79) and excellent discrimination for ICU admission (Test set AUC 0.88) and death (Test set AUC 0.94). The models were developed with a training sample of 2009 cases and validated in an independent test sample of 700 cases comprised of a random sub-sample of cases and all cases entered in the registry during a one-month period after model development. Meaning: This risk prediction model may serve as an effective tool for healthcare providers to facilitate conversations about COVID-19-related risks with IBD patients.