Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories.

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

Erratum: Dark Matter from Exponential Growth [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 191802 (2021)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.191802.

Dark Matter from Exponential Growth.

We propose a novel mechanism for the production of dark matter (DM) from a thermal bath based on the idea that DM particles χ can transform heat bath particles ψ: χψ→χχ. For a small initial abundance of χ, this leads to an exponential growth of the DM number density in close analogy to other familiar exponential growth processes in nature. We demonstrate that this mechanism complements freeze-in and freeze-out production in a generic way, opening new parameter space to explain the observed DM abundance, and we discuss observational prospects for such scenarios.

Novel Direct Detection Constraints on Light Dark Matter.

All attempts to directly detect particle dark matter (DM) scattering on nuclei suffer from the partial or total loss of sensitivity for DM masses in the GeV range or below. We derive novel constraints from the inevitable existence of a subdominant, but highly energetic, component of DM generated through collisions with cosmic rays. Subsequent scattering inside conventional DM detectors, as well as neutrino detectors sensitive to nuclear recoils, limits the DM-nucleon scattering cross section to be below 10^{-31} cm^{2} for both spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering of light DM.

Strong Constraints on Self-Interacting Dark Matter with Light Mediators.

Coupling dark matter to light new particles is an attractive way to combine thermal production with strong velocity-dependent self-interactions. Here we point out that in such models the dark matter annihilation rate is generically enhanced by the Sommerfeld effect, and we derive the resulting constraints from the cosmic microwave background and other indirect detection probes. For the frequently studied case of s-wave annihilation, these constraints exclude the entire parameter space where the self-interactions are large enough to address the small-scale problems of structure formation.

Status of the scalar singlet dark matter model.

One of the simplest viable models for dark matter is an additional neutral scalar, stabilised by a Z 2 symmetry. Using the GAMBIT package and combining results from four independent samplers, we present Bayesian and frequentist global fits of this model. We vary the singlet mass and coupling along with 13 nuisance parameters, including nuclear uncertainties relevant for direct detection, the local dark matter density, and selected quark masses and couplings. We include the dark matter relic density measured by Planck, direct searches with LUX, PandaX, SuperCDMS and XENON100, limits on invisible Higgs decays from the Large Hadron Collider, searches for high-energy neutrinos from dark matter annihilation in the Sun with IceCube, and searches for gamma rays from annihilation in dwarf galaxies with the Fermi-LAT. Viable solutions remain at couplings of order unity, for singlet masses between the Higgs mass and about 300 GeV, and at masses above ∼ 1 TeV. Only in the latter case can the scalar singlet constitute all of dark matter. Frequentist analysis shows that the low-mass resonance region, where the singlet is about half the mass of the Higgs, can also account for all of dark matter, and remains viable. However, Bayesian considerations show this region to be rather fine-tuned.

Ultracompact Minihalos as Probes of Inflationary Cosmology.

Cosmological inflation generates primordial density perturbations on all scales, including those far too small to contribute to the cosmic microwave background. At these scales, isolated ultracompact minihalos of dark matter can form well before standard structure formation, if the perturbations have sufficient amplitude. Minihalos affect pulsar timing data and are potentially bright sources of gamma rays. The resulting constraints significantly extend the observable window of inflation in the presence of cold dark matter, coupling two of the key problems in modern cosmology.

Significant enhancement of neutralino dark matter annihilation from electroweak bremsstrahlung.

Indirect searches for the cosmological dark matter have become ever more competitive during the past years. Here, we report the first full calculation of leading electroweak corrections to the annihilation rate of supersymmetric neutralino dark matter. We find that these corrections can be huge, partially due to contributions that have been overlooked so far. Our results imply a significantly enhanced discovery potential of this well motivated dark matter candidate with current and upcoming cosmic ray experiments, in particular for gamma rays and models with somewhat small annihilation rates at the tree level.

New limits on dark matter annihilation from Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer cosmic ray positron data.

The Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment onboard the International Space Station has recently provided cosmic ray electron and positron data with unprecedented precision in the range from 0.5 to 350 GeV. The observed rise in the positron fraction at energies above 10 GeV remains unexplained, with proposed solutions ranging from local pulsars to TeV-scale dark matter. Here, we make use of this high quality data to place stringent limits on dark matter with masses below ~300 GeV, annihilating or decaying to leptonic final states, essentially independent of the origin of this rise. We significantly improve on existing constraints, in some cases by up to 2 orders of magnitude.

Is dark matter with long-range interactions a solution to all small-scale problems of Λ cold dark matter cosmology?

The cold dark matter paradigm describes the large-scale structure of the Universe remarkably well. However, there exists some tension with the observed abundances and internal density structures of both field dwarf galaxies and galactic satellites. Here, we demonstrate that a simple class of dark matter models may offer a viable solution to all of these problems simultaneously. Their key phenomenological properties are velocity-dependent self-interactions mediated by a light vector messenger and thermal production with much later kinetic decoupling than in the standard case.

Intermediate mass black holes and nearby dark matter point sources: a critical reassessment.

Dark matter (DM) "minispikes" around intermediate mass black holes are sometimes quoted as one of the most promising targets for indirect DM searches. Here, we stress that existing cosmic ray data place severe constraints on the possibility to detect DM annihilation signals from these objects in gamma rays; observational prospects for neutrinos or charged cosmic rays seem even worse. Similar bounds severely constrain the possibility that the excess in the cosmic ray positron or electron flux recently reported by PAMELA/ATIC could be due to a nearby point source like a DM clump or minispike.

Gamma rays from heavy neutralino dark matter.

We consider the gamma-ray spectrum from neutralino dark matter annihilations and show that internal bremsstrahlung of pair final states gives a previously neglected source of photons at energies near the mass of the neutralino. For masses larger than about 1 TeV, and for present day detector resolutions, this results in a characteristic signal that may dominate not only over the continuous spectrum from W fragmentation, but also over the gammagamma and gammaZ line signals which are known to give large rates for heavy neutralinos. Observational prospects thus seem promising.

Gamma rays from Kaluza-Klein dark matter.

A TeV gamma-ray signal from the direction of the Galactic center (GC) has been detected by the HESS experiment. Here, we investigate whether Kaluza-Klein (KK) dark matter annihilations near the GC can be the explanation. Including the contributions from internal bremsstrahlung as well as subsequent decays of quarks and tau leptons, we find a very flat gamma-ray spectrum which drops abruptly at the dark matter particle mass. For a KK mass of about 1 TeV, this gives a good fit to the HESS data below 1 TeV. A similar model, with gauge coupling roughly 3 times as large and a particle mass of about 10 TeV, would give both the correct relic density and a photon spectrum that fits the complete range of data.