Phenotyping Hepatic Immune-Related Adverse Events in the Setting of Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor Therapy.

PURPOSE: We present and validate a rule-based algorithm for the detection of moderate to severe liver-related immune-related adverse events (irAEs) in a real-world patient cohort. The algorithm can be applied to studies of irAEs in large data sets. METHODS: We developed a set of criteria to define hepatic irAEs. The criteria include: the temporality of elevated laboratory measurements in the first 2-14 weeks of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment, steroid intervention within 2 weeks of the onset of elevated laboratory measurements, and intervention with a duration of at least 2 weeks. These criteria are based on the kinetics of patients who experienced moderate to severe hepatotoxicity (Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events grades 2-4). We applied these criteria to a retrospective cohort of 682 patients diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma and treated with ICI. All patients were required to have baseline laboratory measurements before and after the initiation of ICI. RESULTS: A set of 63 equally sampled patients were reviewed by two blinded, clinical adjudicators. Disagreements were reviewed and consensus was taken to be the ground truth. Of these, 25 patients with irAEs were identified, 16 were determined to be hepatic irAEs, 36 patients were nonadverse events, and two patients were of indeterminant status. Reviewers agreed in 44 of 63 patients, including 19 patients with irAEs (0.70 concordance, Fleiss' kappa: 0.43). By comparison, the algorithm achieved a sensitivity and specificity of identifying hepatic irAEs of 0.63 and 0.81, respectively, with a test efficiency (percent correctly classified) of 0.78 and outcome-weighted F1 score of 0.74. CONCLUSION: The algorithm achieves greater concordance with the ground truth than either individual clinical adjudicator for the detection of irAEs.

Antidepressant exposure and long-term dementia risk in a nationwide retrospective study on US veterans with midlife major depressive disorder.

INTRODUCTION: The use of antidepressants in major depressive disorder (MDD) has been reported to influence long-term risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and AD-related dementias (AD/ADRD), but studies are conflicting. METHODS: We used inverse probability weighted (IPW) Cox models with time-varying covariates in a retrospective cohort study among midlife veterans with MDD within the US Veterans Affairs healthcare system from January 1, 2000 to June 1, 2022. RESULTS: A total of 35,200 patients with MDD were identified. No associations were seen regarding the effect of being exposed to any antidepressant versus no exposure on AD/ADRD risk (events = 1,056, hazard ratio = 0.94, 95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 1.09) or the exposure to specific antidepressant classes versus no exposure. A risk reduction was observed for female patients in a stratified analysis; however, the number of cases was small. DISCUSSION: Our study suggests that antidepressant exposure has no effect on AD/ADRD risk. The association in female patients should be interpreted with caution and requires further attention. HIGHLIGHTS: We studied whether antidepressant use was associated with future dementia risk. We specifically focused on patients after their first-ever diagnosis of depression. We used IPW Cox models with time-varying covariates and a large observation window. Our study did not identify an effect of antidepressant use on dementia risk. A risk reduction was observed in female patients, but the number of cases was small.

Correlates of suicidal behaviors and genetic risk among United States veterans with schizophrenia or bipolar I disorder.

Persons diagnosed with schizophrenia (SCZ) or bipolar I disorder (BPI) are at high risk for self-injurious behavior, suicidal ideation, and suicidal behaviors (SB). Characterizing associations between diagnosed health problems, prior pharmacological treatments, and polygenic scores (PGS) has potential to inform risk stratification. We examined self-reported SB and ideation using the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) among 3,942 SCZ and 5,414 BPI patients receiving care within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). These cross-sectional data were integrated with electronic health records (EHRs), and compared across lifetime diagnoses, treatment histories, follow-up screenings, and mortality data. PGS were constructed using available genomic data for related traits. Genome-wide association studies were performed to identify and prioritize specific loci. Only 20% of the veterans who reported SB had a corroborating ICD-9/10 EHR code. Among those without prior SB, more than 20% reported new-onset SB at follow-up. SB were associated with a range of additional clinical diagnoses, and with treatment with specific classes of psychotropic medications (e.g., antidepressants, antipsychotics, etc.). PGS for externalizing behaviors, smoking initiation, suicide attempt, and major depressive disorder were associated with SB. The GWAS for SB yielded no significant loci. Among individuals with a diagnosed mental illness, self-reported SB were strongly associated with clinical variables across several EHR domains. Analyses point to sequelae of substance-related and psychiatric comorbidities as strong correlates of prior and subsequent SB. Nonetheless, past SB was frequently not documented in health records, underscoring the value of regular screening with direct, in-person assessments, especially among high-risk individuals.

Severe COVID-19 in Vaccinated Adults With Hematologic Cancers in the Veterans Health Administration.

Importance: With SARS-CoV-2 transforming into an endemic disease and with antiviral treatments available, it is important to establish which patients remain at risk of severe COVID-19 despite vaccination. Objective: To quantify the associations of clinical and demographic variables with odds of severe COVID-19 among patients with hematologic cancers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study included all patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms in the national Veterans Health Administration (VHA) who had documented SARS-CoV-2 infection after vaccination. Groups of patients with severe (cases) vs nonsevere (controls) COVID-19 were compared. Data were collected between January 1, 2020, and April 5, 2023, with data on infection collected between January 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022. All patients with diagnostic codes for hematologic malignant neoplasms who had documented vaccination followed by documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and for whom disease severity could be assessed were included. Data were analyzed from July 28 to December 30, 2023. Exposures: Clinical (comorbidities, predominant viral variant, treatment for malignant neoplasm, booster vaccination, and antiviral treatment) and demographic (age and sex) variables shown in prior studies to be associated with higher or lower rates of severe COVID-19. Comorbidities included Alzheimer disease or dementia, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart failure, and peripheral vascular disease. Main Outcome and Measures: The main outcome was severe COVID-19 compared with nonsevere SARS-CoV-2 infection. Severe COVID-19 was defined as death within 28 days, mechanical ventilation, or hospitalization with use of dexamethasone or evidence of hypoxemia or use of supplemental oxygen. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the associations of demographic and clinical variables with the odds of severe COVID-19, expressed as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% CIs. Results: Among 6122 patients (5844 [95.5%] male, mean [SD] age, 70.89 [11.57] years), 1301 (21.3%) had severe COVID-19. Age (aOR per 1-year increase, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.04-1.06), treatment with antineoplastic or immune-suppressive drugs (eg, in combination with glucocorticoids: aOR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.93-2.80), and comorbidities (aOR per comorbidity, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.29-1.43) were associated with higher odds of severe disease, whereas booster vaccination was associated with lower odds (aOR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.86). After oral antiviral drugs became widely used in March 2022, 20 of 538 patients (3.7%) with SARS-CoV-2 infection during this period had progression to severe COVID-19. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-control study of patients with hematologic cancers, odds of severe COVID-19 remained high through mid-2022 despite vaccination, especially in patients requiring treatment.

Transfer Learning for Mortality Prediction in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with Low-Resolution Histopathology Slide Snapshots.

High-resolution whole slide image scans of histopathology slides have been widely used in recent years for prediction in cancer. However, in some cases, clinical informatics practitioners may only have access to low-resolution snapshots of histopathology slides, not high-resolution scans. We evaluated strategies for training neural network prognostic models in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) based on low-resolution snapshots, using data from the Veterans Affairs Precision Oncology Data Repository. We compared strategies without transfer learning, with transfer learning from general domain images, and with transfer learning from publicly available high-resolution histopathology scans. We found transfer learning from high-resolution scans achieved significantly better performance than other strategies. Our contribution provides a foundation for future development of prognostic models in NSCLC that incorporate data from low-resolution pathology slide snapshots alongside known clinical predictors.

Matching Patients to Accelerate Clinical Trials (MPACT): Enabling Technology for Oncology Clinical Trial Workflow.

Clinical trial enrollment is impeded by the significant time burden placed on research coordinators screening eligible patients. With 50,000 new cancer cases every year, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has made increased access for Veterans to high-quality clinical trials a priority. To aid in this effort, we worked with research coordinators to build the MPACT (Matching Patients to Accelerate Clinical Trials) platform with a goal of improving efficiency in the screening process. MPACT supports both a trial prescreening workflow and a screening workflow, employing Natural Language Processing and Data Science methods to produce reliable phenotypes of trial eligibility criteria. MPACT also has a functionality to track a patient's eligibility status over time. Qualitative feedback has been promising with users reporting a reduction in time spent on identifying eligible patients.

Building Research Infrastructure to Develop Greater Learning Efficiencies (BRIDGE).

In this manuscript, we outline our developed version of a Learning Health System (LHS) in oncology implemented at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Transferring healthcare into an LHS framework has been one of the spearpoints of VA's Central Office and given the general lack of evidence generated through randomized control clinical trials to guide medical decisions in oncology, this domain is one of the most suitable for this change. We describe our technical solution, which includes a large real-world data repository, a data science and algorithm development framework, and the mechanism by which results are brought back to the clinic and to the patient. Additionally, we propose the need for a bridging framework that requires collaboration between informatics specialists and medical professionals to integrate knowledge generation into the clinical workflow at the point of care.

Risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 despite vaccination in patients requiring treatment with immune-suppressive drugs: A nationwide cohort study of US Veterans.

BACKGROUND: Patients taking immune-suppressive drugs are at increased risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), not fully ameliorated by vaccination. We assessed the contributions of clinical and demographic factors to the risk of severe disease despite vaccination in patients taking immune-suppressive medications for solid organ transplantation (SOT), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), or psoriasis. METHODS: Veterans Health Administration electronic health records were used to identify patients diagnosed with RA, IBD, psoriasis, or SOT who had been vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, were subsequently infected, and had received immune-suppressive drugs within 3 months before infection. The association of severe (defined as hypoxemia, mechanical ventilation, dexamethasone use, or death) versus non-severe COVID-19 with the use of immune-suppressive and antiviral drugs and clinical covariates was assessed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Severe COVID-19 was more common in patients with SOT (230/1011, 22.7%) than RA (173/1355, 12.8%), IBD (51/742, 6.9%), or psoriasis (82/1125, 7.3%). Age was strongly associated with severe COVID-19, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 1.04 (CI 1.03-1.05) per year. Comorbidities indicating chronic brain, heart, lung, or kidney damage were also associated with severity, aOR 1.35-2.38. The use of glucocorticoids was associated with increased risk (aOR 1.66, CI 1.39-2.18). Treatment with antivirals was associated with reduced severity, for example, aOR 0.28 (CI 0.13-0.62) for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. CONCLUSION: The risk of severe COVID-19 despite vaccination is substantial in patients taking immune-suppressive drugs, more so in patients with SOT than in patients with inflammatory diseases. Age and severe comorbidities contribute to risk, as in the general population. Oral antivirals were very beneficial but not widely used.

Brain tumors in United States military veterans.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive analysis of brain tumor incidence and survival in the Veteran population has been lacking. METHODS: Veteran data were obtained from the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) Medical Centers via VHA Corporate Data Warehouse. Brain tumor statistics on the overall US population were generated from the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the US data. Cases were individuals (≥18 years) with a primary brain tumor, diagnosed between 2004 and 2018. The average annual age-adjusted incidence rates (AAIR) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated per 100 000 population and Kaplan-Meier survival curves evaluated overall survival outcomes among Veterans. RESULTS: The Veteran population was primarily white (78%), male (93%), and between 60 and 64 years old (18%). Individuals with a primary brain tumor in the general US population were mainly female (59%) and between 18 and 49 years old (28%). The overall AAIR of primary brain tumors from 2004 to 2018 within the Veterans Affairs cancer registry was 11.6. Nonmalignant tumors were more common than malignant tumors (AAIR:7.19 vs 4.42). The most diagnosed tumors in Veterans were nonmalignant pituitary tumors (AAIR:2.96), nonmalignant meningioma (AAIR:2.62), and glioblastoma (AAIR:1.96). In the Veteran population, survival outcomes became worse with age and were lowest among individuals diagnosed with glioblastoma. CONCLUSIONS: Differences between Veteran and US populations can be broadly attributed to demographic composition differences of these groups. Prior to this, there have been no reports on national-level incidence rates and survival outcomes for Veterans. These data provide vital information that can drive efforts to understand disease burden and improve outcomes for individuals with primary brain tumors.

Determinants of Achieving Serum Urate Goal with Treat-to-Target Urate-Lowering Therapy in Gout.

OBJECTIVE: Using trial data comparing treat-to-target allopurinol and febuxostat in gout, we examined participant characteristics associated with serum urate (SU) goal achievement. METHODS: Participants with gout and SU ≥6.8 mg/dL were randomized to allopurinol or febuxostat, titrated during weeks 0 to 24, and maintained weeks 25 to 48. Participants were considered to achieve SU goal if the mean SU from weeks 36, 42, and 48 was <6.0 mg/dL or <5 mg/dL if tophi were present. Possible determinants of treatment response were preselected and included sociodemographics, comorbidities, diuretic use, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), body mass index, and gout measures. Determinants of SU response were assessed using multivariable logistic regression with additional analyses to account for treatment adherence. RESULTS: Of 764 study participants completing week 48, 618 (81%) achieved SU goal. After multivariable adjustment, factors associated with a greater likelihood of SU goal achievement included older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.40 per 10 years), higher education (aOR 2.02), and better HRQoL (aOR 1.17 per 0.1 unit). Factors associated with a lower odds of SU goal achievement included non-White race (aORs 0.32-0.47), higher baseline SU (aOR 0.83 per 1 mg/dL), presence of tophi (aOR 0.29), and the use of diuretics (aOR 0.52). Comorbidities including chronic kidney disease, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease were not associated with SU goal achievement. Results were not meaningfully changed in analyses accounting for adherence. CONCLUSIONS: Several patient-level factors were predictive of SU goal achievement among patients with gout who received treat-to-target urate-lowering therapy (ULT). Approaches that accurately predict individual responses to treat-to-target ULT hold promise in facilitating personalized management and improving outcomes in patients with gout.

Prostate cancer patient stratification by molecular signatures in the Veterans Precision Oncology Data Commons.

Veterans are at an increased risk for prostate cancer, a disease with extraordinary clinical and molecular heterogeneity, compared with the general population. However, little is known about the underlying molecular heterogeneity within the veteran population and its impact on patient management and treatment. Using clinical and targeted tumor sequencing data from the National Veterans Affairs health system, we conducted a retrospective cohort study on 45 patients with advanced prostate cancer in the Veterans Precision Oncology Data Commons (VPODC), most of whom were metastatic castration-resistant. We characterized the mutational burden in this cohort and conducted unsupervised clustering analysis to stratify patients by molecular alterations. Veterans with prostate cancer exhibited a mutational landscape broadly similar to prior studies, including KMT2A and NOTCH1 mutations associated with neuroendocrine prostate cancer phenotype, previously reported to be enriched in veterans. We also identified several potential novel mutations in PTEN, MSH6, VHL, SMO, and ABL1 Hierarchical clustering analysis revealed two subgroups containing therapeutically targetable molecular features with novel mutational signatures distinct from those reported in the Catalogue of Somatic Mutations in Cancer database. The clustering approach presented in this study can potentially be used to clinically stratify patients based on their distinct mutational profiles and identify actionable somatic mutations for precision oncology.

Baseline correlates of frailty and its association with survival in United States veterans with acute myeloid leukemia.

Frailty is an important construct to measure in acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We used the Veterans Affairs Frailty Index (VA-FI) - calculated using readily available data within the VA's electronic health records - to measure frailty in U.S. veterans with AML. Of the 1166 newly diagnosed and treated veterans with AML between 2012 and 2022, 722 (62%) veterans with AML were classified as frail (VA-FI > 0.2). At a median follow-up of 252.5 days, moderate-severely frail veterans had significantly worse survival than mildly frail, and non-frail veterans (median survival 179 vs. 306 vs. 417 days, p < .001). Increasing VA-FI severity was associated with higher mortality. A model with VA-FI in addition to the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) risk classification and other covariates statistically outperformed a model containing the ELN risk and other covariates alone (p < .001). These findings support the VA-FI as a tool to expand frailty measurement in research and clinical practice for informing prognosis in veterans with AML.

More intensive therapy as more effective treatment for frail patients with multiple myeloma [corrected].

Although randomized controlled trial data suggest that the more intensive triplet bortezomib-lenalidomide-dexamethasone (VRd) is superior to the less intensive doublet lenalidomide-dexamethasone (Rd) in patients newly diagnosed with multiple myeloma (MM), guidelines have historically recommended Rd over VRd for patients who are frail and may not tolerate a triplet. We identified 2573 patients (median age, 69.7 years) newly diagnosed with MM who were initiated on VRd (990) or Rd (1583) in the national US Veterans Affairs health care System from 2004 to 2020. We measured frailty using the Veterans Affairs Frailty Index. To reduce imbalance in confounding, we matched patients for MM stage and 1:1 based on a propensity score. Patients who were moderate-severely frail had a higher prevalence of stage III MM and myeloma-related frailty deficits than patients who were not frail. VRd vs Rd was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.70-0.94) in the overall matched population. Patients who were moderate-severely frail demonstrated the strongest association (HR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.56-0.97), whereas the association weakened in those who were mildly frail (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.61-1.05) and nonfrail (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.67-1.10). VRd vs Rd was associated with a modestly higher incidence of hospitalizations in the overall population, but this association weakened in patients who were moderate-severely frail. Our findings confirm the benefit of VRd over Rd in US veterans and further suggest that this benefit is strongest in patients with the highest levels of frailty, arguing that more intensive treatment of myeloma may be more effective treatment of frailty itself.

Machine learning-based natural language processing to extract PD-L1 expression levels from clinical notes.

Introduction: PD-L1 expression is used to determine oncology patients' response to and eligibility for immunologic treatments; however, PD-L1 expression status often only exists in unstructured clinical notes, limiting ability to use it in population-level studies. Methods: We developed and evaluated a machine learning based natural language processing (NLP) tool to extract PD-L1 expression values from the nationwide Veterans Affairs electronic health record system. Results: The model demonstrated strong evaluation performance across multiple levels of label granularity. Mean precision of the overall PD-L1 positive label was 0.859 (sd, 0.039), recall 0.994 (sd, 0.013), and F1 0.921 (0.024). When a numeric PD-L1 value was identified, the mean absolute error of the value was 0.537 on a scale of 0 to 100. Conclusion: We presented an accurate NLP method for deriving PD-L1 status from clinical notes. By reducing the time and manual effort needed to review medical records, our work will enable future population-level studies in cancer immunotherapy.

Epidemiology of Cancer-Associated Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Solid and Hematologic Neoplasms in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System.

Importance: Identifying changes in epidemiologic patterns of the incidence and risk of cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT), particularly with evolving cancer-directed therapy, is essential for risk stratification. Objective: To assess the incidence of CAT over time and to determine pertinent patient-specific, cancer-specific, and treatment-specific factors associated with its risk. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal, retrospective cohort study was conducted from 2006 to 2021. Duration of follow-up was from the date of diagnosis until first venous thromboembolism (VTE) event, death, loss of follow-up (defined as a 90-day gap without clinical encounters), or administrative censoring on April 1, 2022. The study took place within the US Department of Veterans Affairs national health care system. Patients with newly diagnosed invasive solid tumors and hematologic neoplasms were included in the study. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: Newly diagnosed invasive solid tumors and hematologic neoplasms. Main Outcomes: Incidence of VTE was assessed using a combination of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification and International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification and natural language processing confirmed outcomes. Cumulative incidence competing risk functions were used to estimate incidence of CAT. Multivariable Cox regression models were built to assess the association of baseline variables with CAT. Pertinent patient variables included demographics, region, rurality, area deprivation index, National Cancer Institute comorbidity index, cancer type, staging, first-line systemic treatment within 3 months (time-varying covariate), and other factors that could be associated with the risk of VTE. Results: A total of 434 203 patients (420 244 men [96.8%]; median [IQR] age, 67 [62-74] years; 7414 Asian or Pacific Islander patients [1.7%]; 20 193 Hispanic patients [4.7%]; 89 371 non-Hispanic Black patients [20.6%]; 313 157 non-Hispanic White patients [72.1%]) met the inclusion criteria. Overall incidence of CAT at 12 months was 4.5%, with yearly trends ranging stably from 4.2% to 4.7%. The risk of VTE was associated with cancer type and stage. In addition to confirming well-known risk distribution among patients with solid tumors, a higher risk of VTE was observed among patients with aggressive lymphoid neoplasms compared with patients with indolent lymphoid or myeloid hematologic neoplasms. Compared with no treatment, patients receiving first-line chemotherapy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.40-1.49) and immune checkpoint inhibitors (HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.22-1.82) had a higher adjusted relative risk than patients receiving targeted therapy (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.13-1.30) or endocrine therapy (HR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28). Finally, adjusted VTE risk was significantly higher among Non-Hispanic Black patients (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.19-1.27) and significantly lower in Asian or Pacific Islander patients (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.76-0.93) compared with Non-Hispanic White patients. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients with cancer, a high incidence of VTE was observed, with yearly trends that remained stable over the 16-year study period. Both novel and known factors associated with the risk of CAT were identified, providing valuable and applicable insights in this current treatment landscape.

Trends in Fracture Rates Over Two Decades Among Veterans With Ankylosing Spondylitis.

OBJECTIVE: There is an increased risk of fracture in individuals with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) compared to the general population, possibly due to systemic inflammatory effects. The use of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) may reduce fracture risk by inhibiting inflammation. We assessed fracture rates in AS versus non-AS comparators and whether these rates have changed since the introduction of TNFi. METHODS: We used the national Veterans Affairs database to identify adults ≥18 years old with ≥1 International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9)/ICD-10 code for AS and at least 1 disease-modifying antirheumatic drug prescription. As comparators, we selected a random sample of adults without AS diagnosis codes. We calculated fracture incidence rates for AS and comparators, with direct standardization to the cohort structure in 2017. To compare fracture rates from 2000 to 2002 (pre-TNFi) versus 2004-2020 (TNFi era), we performed an interrupted time series analysis. RESULTS: We included 3,794 individuals with AS (mean age 53 years, 92% male) and 1,152,805 comparators (mean age 60 years, 89% male). For AS, the incidence rate of fractures increased from 7.9/1,000 person-years in 2000 to 21.6/1,000 person-years in 2020. The rate also increased among comparators, although the ratio of fracture rates (AS/comparators) remained relatively stable. In the interrupted time series, the fracture rate for AS patients in the TNFi era was nonsignificantly increased compared to the pre-TNFi era. CONCLUSION: Fracture rates have increased over time for both AS and non-AS comparators. The fracture rate in individuals with AS did not decrease after TNFi introduction in 2003.

Venous thromboembolism risk in cancer patients receiving first-line immune checkpoint inhibitor versus chemotherapy.

It remains unclear if immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy is associated with higher rate of venous thromboembolism (VTE) compared with cytotoxic chemotherapy (chemo) in patients with comparable cancer type, staging, and comorbidities. Using the national Veterans Affairs healthcare system database from 2016 to 2021, we performed a propensity score (PS)-weighted retrospective cohort study to compare the incidence of VTE in patients with selected stage III/IV cancer receiving first-line ICI versus chemo. The PS model utilized overlap weights to balance age, sex, race, treatment year, VTE history, paralysis/immobilization, prolonged hospitalization, cancer type, staging, time between diagnosis and treatment, and National Cancer Institute comorbidity index. Weighted Cox regressions with robust standard error were used to assess the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found that among comparable advanced cancers, first-line ICI (n = 1823) and first-line chemo (n = 6345) had similar rates of VTE (8.49% for ICI and 8.36% for chemo at 6 months). The weighted HR was 1.06 (95% CI 0.88-1.26) for ICI versus chemo. In a subgroup analysis restricted to lung cancers, first-line ICI/chemo (n = 828), ICI monotherapy (n = 428), and chemo monotherapy (n = 4371) had similar rates of VTE (9.60% for ICI/chemo, 10.04% for ICI, and 8.91% for chemo at 6 months). The weighted HR was 1.05 (95% CI 0.77-1.42) for ICI versus chemo, and 1.08 (95% CI 0.83-1.42) for ICI/chemo versus chemo. In conclusion, ICI as a systemic therapy has a similarly elevated risk as cytotoxic chemo for VTE occurrence in cancer patients. This finding can inform future prospective studies exploring thromboprophylaxis strategies.

A deep learning algorithm to predict risk of pancreatic cancer from disease trajectories.

Pancreatic cancer is an aggressive disease that typically presents late with poor outcomes, indicating a pronounced need for early detection. In this study, we applied artificial intelligence methods to clinical data from 6 million patients (24,000 pancreatic cancer cases) in Denmark (Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR)) and from 3 million patients (3,900 cases) in the United States (US Veterans Affairs (US-VA)). We trained machine learning models on the sequence of disease codes in clinical histories and tested prediction of cancer occurrence within incremental time windows (CancerRiskNet). For cancer occurrence within 36 months, the performance of the best DNPR model has area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve = 0.88 and decreases to AUROC (3m) = 0.83 when disease events within 3 months before cancer diagnosis are excluded from training, with an estimated relative risk of 59 for 1,000 highest-risk patients older than age 50 years. Cross-application of the Danish model to US-VA data had lower performance (AUROC = 0.71), and retraining was needed to improve performance (AUROC = 0.78, AUROC (3m) = 0.76). These results improve the ability to design realistic surveillance programs for patients at elevated risk, potentially benefiting lifespan and quality of life by early detection of this aggressive cancer.

Risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 infection and complications from COVID-19 in lung cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Identifying lung cancer patients at an increased risk of getting SARS-CoV-2-related complications will facilitate tailored therapy to maximize the benefit of anti-cancer therapy, while decreasing the likelihood of COVID-19 complications. This analysis aimed to identify the characteristics of lung cancer patients that predict for increased risk of death or serious SARS-CoV-2 infection. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with lung cancer diagnosed October 1, 2015, and December 1, 2020, and a diagnosis of COVID-19 between February 2, 2020, and December 1, 2020, within the Veterans Health Administration. Serious SARS-CoV-2 infection was defined as hospitalization, ICU admission, or mechanical ventilation or intubation within 2 weeks of COVID-19 diagnosis. For categorical variables, differences were assessed using Χ2 tests, while Kruskal-Wallis rank-sum test was used for continuous variables. Multivariable logistic regression models were fit relative to onset of serious SARS-CoV-2 infection and death from SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: COVID-19 infection was diagnosed in 352 lung cancer patients. Of these, 61 patients (17.3%) died within four weeks of diagnosis with COVID-19, and 42 others (11.9%) experienced a severe infection. Patients who had fatal or severe infection were older and had lower hemoglobin levels than those with mild or moderate infection. Factors associated with death from SARS-CoV-2 infection included increasing age, immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy and low hemoglobin level. CONCLUSIONS:  The mortality of lung cancer patients from COVID-19 disease in the present cohort was less than previously reported in the literature. The identification of risk factors associated with severe or fatal outcomes informs management of patients with lung cancer who develop COVID-19 disease.