Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Woodland caribou habitat selection patterns in relation to predation risk and forage abundance depend on reproductive state.

The ideal free distribution assumes that animals select habitats that are beneficial to their fitness. When the needs of dependent offspring differ from those of the parent, ideal habitat selection patterns could vary with the presence or absence of offspring. We test whether habitat selection depends on reproductive state due to top-down or bottom-up influences on the fitness of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a threatened, wide-ranging herbivore. We combined established methods of fitting resource and step selection functions derived from locations of collared animals in Ontario with newer techniques, including identifying calf status from video collar footage and seasonal habitat selection analysis through latent selection difference functions. We found that females with calves avoided predation risk and proximity to roads more strongly than females without calves within their seasonal ranges. At the local scale, females with calves avoided predation more strongly than females without calves. Females with calves increased predation avoidance but not selection for food availability upon calving, whereas females without calves increased selection for food availability across the same season. These behavioral responses suggest that habitat selection by woodland caribou is influenced by reproductive state, such that females with calves at heel use habitat selection to offset the increased vulnerability of their offspring to predation risk.

The impacts of forest management strategies for woodland caribou vary across biogeographic gradients.

Loss or alteration of forest ecosystems due to anthropogenic activities has prompted the need for mitigation measures aimed at protecting habitat for forest-dependent wildlife. Understanding how wildlife respond to such management efforts is essential for achieving conservation targets. Boreal caribou are a species of conservation concern due to the impacts of human induced habitat alteration; however the effects of habitat management activities are poorly understood. We assessed the relationship between large scale patterns in forest harvesting and caribou spatial behaviours over a 20-year period, spanning a change in forest management intended to protect caribou habitat. Caribou range size, fidelity, and proximity to forest harvests were assessed in relation to change in harvest patterns through time and across two landscapes that varied widely in natural disturbance and community dynamics. We observed up to 89% declines in total area harvested within our study areas, with declining harvest size and aggregation. These landscape outcomes were coincident with caribou exhibiting greater fidelity and spacing farther away from disturbances at smaller scales, hypothesized to be beneficial for acquiring food and avoiding predators. Contrary to our expectation that the large scale maintenance of habitat patches would permit caribou to space away from disturbance, their proximity to harvest blocks at the population range scale did not decrease through time, suggesting that movement toward landscape recovery for caribou in previously harvested regions will likely stretch over multiple decades. Caribou spatial behaviours varied across the two landscapes independently of forest management. Our study underlines the importance of understanding both changes in industry demands, as well as natural landscape variation in habitat when managing wildlife.

Wolves adapt territory size, not pack size to local habitat quality.

1. Although local variation in territorial predator density is often correlated with habitat quality, the causal mechanism underlying this frequently observed association is poorly understood and could stem from facultative adjustment in either group size or territory size. 2. To test between these alternative hypotheses, we used a novel statistical framework to construct a winter population-level utilization distribution for wolves (Canis lupus) in northern Ontario, which we then linked to a suite of environmental variables to determine factors influencing wolf space use. Next, we compared habitat quality metrics emerging from this analysis as well as an independent measure of prey abundance, with pack size and territory size to investigate which hypothesis was most supported by the data. 3. We show that wolf space use patterns were concentrated near deciduous, mixed deciduous/coniferous and disturbed forest stands favoured by moose (Alces alces), the predominant prey species in the diet of wolves in northern Ontario, and in proximity to linear corridors, including shorelines and road networks remaining from commercial forestry activities. 4. We then demonstrate that landscape metrics of wolf habitat quality - projected wolf use, probability of moose occupancy and proportion of preferred land cover classes - were inversely related to territory size but unrelated to pack size. 5. These results suggest that wolves in boreal ecosystems alter territory size, but not pack size, in response to local variation in habitat quality. This could be an adaptive strategy to balance trade-offs between territorial defence costs and energetic gains due to resource acquisition. That pack size was not responsive to habitat quality suggests that variation in group size is influenced by other factors such as intraspecific competition between wolf packs.

Space-use behaviour of woodland caribou based on a cognitive movement model.

Movement patterns offer a rich source of information on animal behaviour and the ecological significance of landscape attributes. This is especially useful for species occupying remote landscapes where direct behavioural observations are limited. In this study, we fit a mechanistic model of animal cognition and movement to GPS positional data of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou; Gmelin 1788) collected over a wide range of ecological conditions. The model explicitly tracks individual animal informational state over space and time, with resulting parameter estimates that have direct cognitive and ecological meaning. Three biotic landscape attributes were hypothesized to motivate caribou movement: forage abundance (dietary digestible biomass), wolf (Canis lupus; Linnaeus, 1758) density and moose (Alces alces; Linnaeus, 1758) habitat. Wolves are the main predator of caribou in this system and moose are their primary prey. Resulting parameter estimates clearly indicated that forage abundance is an important driver of caribou movement patterns, with predator and moose avoidance often having a strong effect, but not for all individuals. From the cognitive perspective, our results support the notion that caribou rely on limited sensory inputs from their surroundings, as well as on long-term spatial memory, to make informed movement decisions. Our study demonstrates how sensory, memory and motion capacities may interact with ecological fitness covariates to influence movement decisions by free-ranging animals.

Towards an energetic landscape: broad-scale accelerometry in woodland caribou.

Energetic balance is a central driver of individual survival and population change, yet estimating energetic costs in free- and wide-ranging animals presents a significant challenge. Animal-borne activity monitors (using accelerometer technology) present a promising method of meeting this challenge and open new avenues for exploring energetics in natural settings. To determine the behaviours and estimated energetic costs associated with a given activity level, three captive reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) at the Toronto Zoo were fitted with collars and observed for 53 h. Activity patterns were then measured over 13 months for 131 free-ranging woodland caribou (R. t. caribou) spanning 450,000 km(2) in northern Ontario. The captive study revealed a positive but decelerating relationship between activity level and energetic costs inferred from previous behavioural studies. Field-based measures of activity were modelled against individual displacement, vegetation abundance (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), snow depth and temperature, and the best fit model included all parameters and explained over half of the variation in the data. Individual displacement was positively related to activity levels, suggesting that broad differences in energetic demands are influenced by variation in movement rates. After accounting for displacement, activity was highest at intermediate levels of vegetation abundance, presumably due to foraging behaviour. Snow depth, probably associated with digging for winter forage, moderately increased activity. Activity levels increased significantly at the coldest winter temperatures, suggesting the use of behavioural thermoregulation by caribou. These interpretations of proximate causal factors should be regarded as hypotheses subject to validation under normal field conditions. These results illustrate the landscape characteristics that increase energetic demands for caribou and confirm the great potential for the use of accelerometry in studies of animal energetics.

Environmental and individual drivers of animal movement patterns across a wide geographical gradient.

Within the rapidly developing field of movement ecology, much attention has been given to studying the movement of individuals within a subset of their population's occupied range. Our understanding of the effects of landscape heterogeneity on animal movement is still fairly limited as it requires studying the movement of multiple individuals across a variety of environmental conditions. Gaining deeper understanding of the environmental drivers of movement is a crucial component of predictive models of population spread and habitat selection and may help inform management and conservation. In Ontario, woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) occur along a wide geographical gradient ranging from the boreal forest to the Hudson Bay floodplains. We used high-resolution GPS data, collected from 114 individuals across a 450000 km(2) area in northern Ontario, to link movement behaviour to underlying local environmental variables associated with habitat permeability, predation risk and forage availability. We show that a great deal of observed variability in movement patterns across space and time can be attributed to local environmental conditions, with residual individual differences that may reflect spatial population structure. We discuss our results in the context of current knowledge of movement and caribou ecology and highlight potential applications of our approach to the study of wide-ranging animals.

Patterns and causes of demographic variation in a harvested moose population: evidence for the effects of climate and density-dependent drivers.

1. Better understanding of the mechanisms affecting demographic variation in ungulate populations is needed to support sustainable management of harvested populations. While studies of moose Alces alces L. populations have previously explored temporal variation in demographic processes, managers responsible for populations that span large heterogeneous landscapes would benefit from an understanding of how demography varies across biogeographical gradients in climate and other population drivers. Evidence of thresholds in population response to manageable and un-manageable drivers could aid resource managers in identifying limits to the magnitude of sustainable change. 2. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate the relative importance of population density, habitat abundance, summer and winter climatic conditions, primary production, and harvest intensity in explaining spatial variation in moose vital rates in Ontario, Canada. Tree regression was used to test for thresholds in the magnitudes of environmental predictor variables that significantly affected population vital rates. 3. Moose population growth rate was negatively related to moose density and positively related to the abundance of mixed deciduous habitat abundant in forage. Calf recruitment was negatively related to a later start of the growing season and calf harvest. The ratio of bulls to cows was related to male harvest and hunter access, and thresholds were evident in predictor variables for all vital rate models. 4. Findings indicate that the contributions of density-dependent and independent factors can vary depending on the scale of population process. The importance of density dependence and habitat supply to low-density ungulate populations was evident, and management strategies for ungulates may be improved by explicitly linking forest management and harvest. Findings emphasize the importance of considering summer climatic influences to ungulate populations, as recruitment in moose was more sensitive to the timing of vegetation green-up than winter severity. The efficacy of management decisions for harvested ungulates may require regional shifts in targets where populations span bioclimatic gradients. The use of GAMs in combination with recursive partitioning was demonstrated to be an informative analytical framework that captured nonlinear relationships common in natural processes and thresholds that are relevant to population management in diverse systems.

Comment arising from a paper by Wittmer et al.: hypothesis testing for top-down and bottom-up effects in woodland caribou population dynamics.

Conservation strategies for populations of woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou frequently emphasize the importance of predator-prey relationships and the availability of lichen-rich late seral forests, yet the importance of summer diet and forage availability to woodland caribou survival is poorly understood. In a recent article, Wittmer et al. (Can J Zool 83:407-418, 2005b) concluded that woodland caribou in British Columbia were declining as a consequence of increased predation that was facilitated by habitat alteration. Their conclusion is consistent with the findings of other authors who have suggested that predation is the most important proximal factor limiting woodland caribou populations (Bergerud and Elliot in Can J Zool 64:1515-1529, 1986; Edmonds in Can J Zool 66:817-826, 1988; Rettie and Messier in Can J Zool 76:251-259, 1998; Hayes et al. in Wildl Monogr 152:1-35, 2003). Wittmer et al. (Oecologia 144:257-267, [corrected] 2005b) presented three alternative, contrasting hypotheses for caribou decline that differed in terms of predicted differences in instantaneous rates of increase, pregnancy rates, causes of mortality, and seasonal vulnerability to mortality (Table 1, p 258). These authors rejected the hypotheses that food or an interaction between food and predation was responsible for observed declines in caribou populations; however, the use of pregnancy rate, mortality season and cause of mortality to contrast the alternative hypotheses is problematic. We argue here that the data employed in their study were insufficient to properly evaluate a predation-sensitive foraging hypothesis for caribou decline. Empirical data on seasonal forage availability and quality and plane of nutrition of caribou would be required to test the competing hypotheses. We suggest that methodological limitations in studies of woodland caribou population dynamics prohibit proper evaluation of the mechanism of caribou population declines and fail to elucidate potential interactions between top-down and bottom-up effects on populations.