RESUMEN
The earth is warming, and the frequency of extreme weather events have been rapidly growing globally with unprecedented consequences to farming communities. In principle, weather and climate information services (WCIS) can help farmers better manage their activities and farm level outcomes by supporting their decision-making with relevant and usable information to address the potential impacts of expected changing climate conditions. But, in practice, can the availability and use of WCIS help improve agricultural outcomes given the weather and climate related uncertainties? To understand the use and impact of WCIS in the cotton-wheat cropping areas of Pakistan, we conducted a multistage stratified clustered random sample of 612 farm households in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Over 55% of the farm households in the sample indicated that they used WCIS provided by the Pakistan Meteorological Department and other sources for making their agricultural decisions. Our analysis, however, suggests that the impact of using WCIS on major farm outcomes (i.e. farm revenue, costs, profits, and input usage) is not statistically significant when compared with those farm households not using WCIS (null result). This result is robust to different estimation techniques (i.e. ordinary least squares, instrumental variable approach, and propensity score matching method). From the focus group discussions, we gathered that farmers perceived WCIS as less reliable, often unclear, and difficult to understand as this information is not translated and transmitted in local languages. Addressing these issues can help reduce the impact of climate and weather variability on farm outcomes in those provinces as well as in Pakistan more generally. Our study suggests that, under uncertainty, emphasis should be on WCIS that farmers can rely on for making farming related decisions.
RESUMEN
Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) provide information about future climate variability that has the potential to benefit organisations and their decision-making. However, the production and availability of SCF does not guarantee its use in decision-making per se as a range of factors and conditions influence its use in different decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to identify the barriers and enablers to the use of SCF across organisations in Europe. To achieve that, we conducted 75 in-depth interviews with organisations working across eight sectors (including energy, transport, water and agriculture) and 16 countries. The majority of the organisations interviewed do not currently use SCF. This was due to the low reliability and skill of SCF in Europe but also with other non-technical aspects such as the lack of relevance and awareness of SCF in the organisations. Conversely, the main enabler to the use of SCF was the interactions with the providers of SCF. In addition, the level of organisational resources, capacity and expertise were also significant enablers to the use of SCF in organisations. This paper provides the first empirical assessment of the use of SCF in Europe. Such insights provide not only an overview of the existing barriers and enablers to the use of SCF in Europe and how these can be overcome and negotiated to enhance the usability of SCF, but can also help inform the broader and emerging context of climate services development in Europe.
