RESUMEN
Cervical cancer is a preventable disease. Nevertheless, stagnation has been seen in incidence rates also in countries with well-functioning healthcare. On this basis, we investigated associations between control interventions and changes in cervical cancer incidence in Denmark from 2009 to 2022. Data on human papillomavirus (HPV)-vaccination were retrieved from Staten's Serum Institute; on screening recommendations from Danish Health Authority, on screening performance from Danish Quality Database for Cervical Screening; and on cervical cancer incidence from Nordcan and Danish Cancer Register. We reported coverage with HPV vaccination (1+ dose); coverage with cervical cell samples; number of women with primary HPV tests; proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up; number of conizations; and cervical cancer incidence rates. In 2022, all women aged ≤29 had been offered childhood HPV vaccination with coverage of 80%-90%. By 2020-2022, the cervical cancer incidence rate in women aged 20-29 was 3 per 100,000; at level of disease elimination. In 2017, women aged 70+ were offered a one-time HPV screening, and by 2020-2022, the old-age peak in cervical cancer incidence had largely disappeared. From 2009 to 2022, proportion of non-normal cell samples without timely follow-up decreased from 20% to 10%, and conventional cytology was largely replaced by SurePath liquid-based cytology; these factors could explain the steady decrease in cervical cancer incidence rate. Implementation of primary HPV screening in women aged 30-59 in 2021 was reflected in a, probably temporary, increase in the 2022 cervical cancer incidence rate. In conclusion, combined interventions with childhood HPV vaccination; one-time HPV screening of elderly women; and better management of screening broke previous stagnation in cervical cancer incidence rate.
RESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: To assess outcome of a one-time human papillomavirus (HPV)-screening in 2017 of Danish women aged 70+. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Women born 1947 or before were personally invited to have a cell-sample collected by their general practitioner. Screening- and follow-up samples were analyzed in hospital laboratories in the five Danish regions and registered centrally. Follow-up procedures varied slightly across regions. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 (CIN2) was recommended treatment threshold. Data were retrieved from the Danish Quality Database for Cervical Cancer Screening. We calculated CIN2+ and CIN3+ detection rates per 1000 screened women, and number of biopsies and conizations per detected CIN2+ case. We tabulated annual number of incident cervical cancer cases in Denmark for the years 2009-2020. RESULTS: In total, 359 763 women were invited of whom 108 585 (30% of invited) were screened; 4479 (4.1% of screened, and 4.3% of screened 70-74 years) tested HPV-positive; of whom 2419 (54% of HPV-positive) were recommended follow-up with colposcopy, biopsy and cervical sampling, and 2060 with cell-sample follow-up. In total, 2888 women had histology; of whom 1237 cone specimen and 1651 biopsy only. Out of 1000 screened women 11 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11-12) had conization. In total, 579 women had CIN2+; 209 CIN2, 314 CIN3, and 56 cancer. Out of 1000 screened women five (95% CI: 5-6) had CIN2+. Detection rate of CIN2+ was highest in regions where conization was used as part of first-line follow-up. In 2009-2016, number of incident cervical cancers in women aged 70+ in Denmark fluctuated around 64; in 2017 it reached 83 cases; and by 2021 the number had decreased to 50. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of high-risk HPV of 4.3% in women aged 70-74 is in agreement with data from Australia, and the detection of five CIN+2 cases per 1000 screened women is in agreement with data for 65-69 year old women in Norway. Data are thus starting to accumulate on primary HPV-screening of elderly women. The screening resulted in a prevalence peak in incident cervical cancers, and it will therefore take some years before the cancer preventive effect of the screening can be evaluated.