RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to explore the ability of professional judgment to predict the need for tracheotomy early among intensive care unit (ICU) patients. METHODS: Prospective study using daily questionnaires among ICU physicians in a mixed medical-surgical ICU. The prediction of tracheotomy was by a visual analogue scale (VAS, from 1 to 10, with 1 representing 'absolutely no need for tracheotomy' and 10 representing 'pertinent need for tracheotomy') during ICU stay until tracheal extubation or tracheotomy. For the purpose of this study, a VAS score ≥ 8 was considered a positive prediction for tracheotomy. RESULTS: A total of 476 questionnaires were retrieved for 75 patients (6.4 ± 5.2 questionnaires per patient), of which 11 patients finally proceeded with a tracheostomy. At first assessment (mean of 2.4 ± 0.8 days after ICU admittance), ICU physicians predicted the need for tracheotomy 3.0 (2.0-6.0) higher VAS points for patients who were finally tracheotomized (P<0.01). Patients with a positive prediction had a 5.4 (1.2-24.1) higher chance of receiving tracheotomy (P=0.03). Considering the median VAS score over a maximum of 10 days before tracheotomy, ICU physicians scored tracheotomized patients significantly higher from day 8 onwards. When comparing ICU physicians, fellows and residents separately, only staff physicians scored a significant difference in the VAS score (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: ICU physicians are able to differentiate between patients in need for tracheotomy from those who do not, within 2 days from admittance. The closer the time to the actual intervention, the better the physicians are able to predict this decision.
