Drugs, guns, and violent crime in California.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully. METHODS: We report here the results of a 13-year prospective observational study on the risk of violent crime associated with a history of criminal drug charges in a cohort of 79,678 legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001. The main outcomes were post-purchase charges for any violent crime, violent Crime Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and firearm-related violent crimes. The main exposure of interest was a history of pre-purchase charge(s) for drug-related offenses; we examined as a secondary exposure a history of marijuana-related charges. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards multiple events models. RESULTS: We found that legal handgun purchasers in California with a history of drug-related charges, even those with marijuana charges only, had triple the risk of a post-purchase violent crime charge compared to purchasers with no criminal charges (drug charges only: aHR=2.9, 95 % CI 2.2-3.8; marijuana charges only: aHR=3.3, 95 % CI 1.8-6.0). In addition, a criminal history of drug charges only vs. no criminal history was associated with increased risk of one or more violent crime charges after the first post-purchase arrest event (aHR=1.6, 95 % CI 1.2-2.3). CONCLUSION: It is incumbent on researchers and policy makers to understand the nature and causes of this risk in order to take effective steps towards mitigation.

Community exposure to gun homicide and adolescents' educational aspirations.

INTRODUCTION: Witnessing violence and violent victimization have detrimental effects on adolescents' emotional functioning and ability to envision and plan for their futures. However, research is limited on the impact of violence that occurs in adolescents' communities-whether or not it was witnessed or experienced firsthand. This paper investigated the associations between community exposure to gun homicide and adolescents' high school and college graduation aspirations. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3031), a cohort study of children born 1998-2000 in 20 large US cities, merged with incident-level data on deadly gun violence from the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2017). Outcomes were reported by adolescents (girls and boys) during wave 6 (2014-2017) of the study, conducted when the children were 15 years of age. We employed ordinary least squares regression, ordered logistic regression, and multilevel stratification to examine the average and heterogeneous impacts of community exposure to gun homicide on adolescents' educational aspirations. RESULTS: Community exposure to gun homicide was associated with reduced high school graduation aspirations, particularly among adolescents with the lowest risk of exposure to gun homicide. Gun homicide exposure was also associated with increased college graduation aspirations; this association was concentrated among adolescents with moderate-high risk of exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of education for job opportunities and the better health that accompanies education and occupational attainment, preventing early exposure to gun violence and providing institutional supports to help adolescents facing adversity realize their goals is essential to their long-term health and success.

Risk and Protective Factors for Firearm Assault Injuries Among Black Men: A Scoping Review of Research.

Black men are disproportionately affected by firearm assaults in the United States, and these disparities are rooted in structural and social inequities. The objective of this scoping review of research was to identify risk and protective factors for firearm assault injuries among Black men at all levels of the social-ecological framework. The search was conducted in 2021. The initial search generated 1,122 articles. Studies were eligible if they (a) included an analysis of modifiable risk or protective factors for firearm assaults among Black men; (b) reported an estimate of correlation, association, or effect between risk or protective factors and firearm assault injuries, firearm violence, and/or firearm homicides; and (c) were published peer-reviewed articles. In all, 19 articles were identified for review. Risk factors identified at each ecological level include the following: (1) Individual: firearm possession/weapon use and criminal legal system interaction; (2) Relationships: gang membership and exposure to other people who have experienced a firearm assault; (3) Community: indicators for socioeconomic status and racial residential segregation; and (4) Societal: historical racist policy. Individual-level substance use had mixed results. Few (26%) studies examined protective factors at any ecological level, but community-level factors like neighborhood tree cover were identified. Future research needs to examine risk and protective factors at the societal level and multiple ecological levels simultaneously leading to more effective multi-level interventions that will guide policy formation. A greater diversity of study designs, research methods, and theoretical frameworks is needed to better understand factors associated with firearm assault among Black men.

Identity, experience, and threat: Assessing key correlates of firearm ownership and related behaviors in a representative sample of five US States.

The purpose of this study was to examine psychosocial, experiential, and demographic correlates of firearm ownership, carrying, and storage methods. We used a representative survey of 3,510 people living in five US states (Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Texas) conducted in 2022. Individuals provided information on past experiences with firearms, perceptions of threat and neighborhood safety, discrimination, and tolerance of uncertainty alongside demographic items. The analysis was conducted in November 2022. Past experiences with firearms and prior victimization are associated with increased firearm ownership and carrying practices. Threat sensitivity is associated with owning more guns while poorer perceptions of neighborhood safety correspond with owning fewer guns but greater risk for unsafe storage practices like storing a loaded gun in a closet or drawer. Intolerance of uncertainty is associated with owning fewer guns and lower risk for carrying outside of the home but greater risk for unsafe storage. Prior experience of discrimination is associated with risk for carrying firearms outside of the home. Demographic characteristics related to sex, rurality, military service, and political conservatism predict risky firearm-related behaviors related to firearm ownership, carrying frequency, and unsecure storage. Taken together, we find firearm ownership and risky firearm behaviors (e.g. carrying, unsafe storage) are more prominent among groups such as politically conservative males living in rural areas while also being influenced by threatening experiences, uncertainty, and perceptions of safety.

Voicing narratives of structural violence in interpersonal firearm violence research and prevention in the United States.

Violence is defined as "the intentional use of physical force or power, threatened or actual, against oneself, another person, or against a group or community, that either results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, death, psychological harm, maldevelopment, or deprivation." Encompassed in this definition are multiple, interrelated forms of violence, including interpersonal firearm death and injury, but also the systems, policies, and practices enacted by those with power to advantage some groups while depriving others of meaningful opportunities for meeting their basic needs-known as "structural violence". Yet dominant violence prevention narratives too often ignore or deemphasize the deeply intertwined threads of structural violence with other forms of violence, leading to policies and practices that are frequently insufficient, and often harmful, for reducing interpersonal firearm violence and building community safety, particularly in minoritized and structurally marginalized communities. We highlight ways in which limited scrutiny of structural violence, the omission of its defining characteristics-power and deprivation-from functional characterizations and frameworks of interpersonal firearm violence, and the inadequate distribution of power and resources to those most impacted by violence to self-determine narratives of and solutions to interpersonal firearm violence grossly impacts how interpersonal firearm violence is collectively conceived, discussed, and addressed. Expanding dominant narratives of interpersonal firearm violence, guided by the wisdom and determination of those most impacted, such that the goal of prevention and intervention efforts is not merely the absence of violence but rather the creation of a community safety and health ecosystem is essential to meet this critical moment in firearm violence research and prevention.

Neighborhood collective efficacy and environmental exposure to firearm homicide among a national sample of adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Living near an incident of firearm violence can negatively impact youth, regardless of whether the violence is experienced firsthand. Inequities in household and neighborhood resources may affect the prevalence and consequences of exposure across racial/ethnic groups. FINDINGS: Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study and the Gun Violence Archive, we estimate that approximately 1 in 4 adolescents in large US cities lived within 800 m (0.5 miles) of a past-year firearm homicide during 2014-17. Exposure risk decreased as household income and neighborhood collective efficacy increased, though stark racial/ethnic inequities remained. Across racial/ethnic groups, adolescents in poor households in moderate or high collective efficacy neighborhoods had a similar risk of past-year firearm homicide exposure as middle-to-high income adolescents in low collective efficacy neighborhoods. CONCLUSIONS: Empowering communities to build and leverage social ties may be as impactful for reducing firearm violence exposure as income supports. Comprehensive violence prevention efforts should include systems-level strategies that jointly strengthen family and community resources.

Relationships, resources, and political empowerment: community violence intervention strategies that contest the logics of policing and incarceration.

Community violence-defined as unsanctioned violence between unrelated individuals in public places-has devastating physical, psychological, and emotional consequences on individuals, families, and communities. Immense investments in policing and incarceration in the United States have neither prevented community violence nor systemically served those who have been impacted by it, instead often inflicting further harm. However, the logics that uphold policing and incarceration as suitable or preventative responses to community violence are deeply ingrained in societal discourse, limiting our ability to respond differently. In this perspective, we draw from interviews with leading voices in the field of outreach-based community violence intervention and prevention to consider alternative ways to address community violence. We begin by demonstrating that policing and incarceration are distinguished by practices of retribution, isolation, and counterinsurgency that are counterproductive to the prevention of community violence. Then, we identify alternative practices of outreach-based community violence intervention and prevention that include (1) fostering safety nets through relationships among individuals, families, and neighborhoods, (2) fighting poverty and increasing access to resources, and (3) building political capacity among organizations to transform the broader systems in which they are embedded. They also include accountability practices that are preventative and responsive to the needs of those who are harmed. We conclude that elevating the language, narratives, and values of outreach-based community violence intervention and prevention can transform our responses to violence, interrupt cycles of harm, and foster safer communities.

Emergency department visit patterns in the recently discharged, violently injured patient: Retrospective cohort review.

BACKGROUND: Analysis of the costs associated with emergency department (ED) visits after discharge for violent injury could highlight subgroups for the development of cost-effective interventions to support healing and prevent treatment failures in violently injured patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort review was conducted of all patients with return ED visits within 90 days of discharge after treatment for a violent injury occurring between July 1, 2016, and June 30, 2018. Hospital costs were calculated for each incidence and analyzed against demographic and injury type variables to identify trends. RESULTS: 218 return ED visits were identified. Hospital costs showed a high frequency of low-cost visits. For more complex visits, distinct cost patterns were observed for Black and LatinX males compared to White males as a function of age. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of hospital cost per visit identified trends among different subgroups. Underlying etiologies presumably vary between groups, but hypothesis-driven further investigation and needs assessment is required. Understanding the driving forces behind these cost trends may aid in developing effective interventions.

Heterogeneous effects of spatially proximate firearm homicide exposure on anxiety and depression symptoms among U.S. youth.

The burden of firearm homicide in the United States is not evenly distributed across the population; rather, it disproportionately affects youth in disadvantaged and marginalized communities. Research is limited relevant to the impacts of exposure to firearm violence that occurs near where youth live or attend school - spatially proximate firearm violence - on youths' mental health and whether those impacts vary by characteristics that shape youths' risk for experiencing that exposure in the first place. Using a dataset linking the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study with the Gun Violence Archive (N = 3086), we employed propensity score matching and multilevel stratification to examine average and heterogeneous associations between spatially proximate firearm homicide exposure and anxiety and depression among all youth and then separately for boys and girls. We found a statistically significant average association between firearm homicide exposure and symptoms of depression among youth. Furthermore, heterogeneous effects analyses yielded evidence that the average association is driven by youth, and particularly boys, who are the most disadvantaged and have the highest risk of firearm homicide exposure. The results of this study suggest that the accumulation of stressors associated with structural disadvantage and neighborhood disorder, coupled with exposure to spatially proximate and deadly firearm violence, may make boys and young men, particularly Black boys and young men, uniquely vulnerable to the mental health impacts of such exposure. Ancillary analyses of potential effect moderators suggest possible future areas of investigation.

Inequities in Community Exposure to Deadly Gun Violence by Race/Ethnicity, Poverty, and Neighborhood Disadvantage among Youth in Large US Cities.

Understanding the burden of gun violence among youth is a public health imperative. While most estimates are based on direct and witnessed victimization, living nearby gun violence incidents may be consequential too. Yet detailed information about these broader experiences of violence is lacking. We use data on a population-based cohort of youth merged with incident-level data on deadly gun violence to assess the prevalence and intensity of community exposure to gun homicides across cross-classified categories of exposure distance and recency, overall and by race/ethnicity, household poverty, and neighborhood disadvantage. In total, 2-18% of youth resided within 600 m of a gun homicide occurring in the past 14-365 days. These percentages were 3-25% for incidents within 800 m and 5-37% for those within a 1300-m radius. Black and Latinx youth were 3-7 times more likely, depending on the exposure radius, to experience a past-year gun homicide than white youth and on average experienced incidents more recently and closer to home. Household poverty contributed to exposure inequities, but disproportionate residence in disadvantaged neighborhoods was especially consequential: for all racial/ethnic groups, the difference in the probability of exposure between youth in low vs high poverty households was approximately 5-10 percentage points, while the difference between youth residing in low vs high disadvantage neighborhoods was approximately 50 percentage points. Given well-documented consequences of gun violence exposure on health, these more comprehensive estimates underscore the importance of supportive strategies not only for individual victims but entire communities in the aftermath of gun violence.

States should use Medicaid to support violence intervention efforts.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, calls to address gun violence through public health approaches have increased. However, securing funding for health-based community violence intervention models has remained a challenge. New actions suggest that this may be shifting. Upon taking office, the Biden administration announced a series of funding opportunities for these programs, which ranged from competitive grant programs to a proposed 8-year, $5 billion plan. Less publicized, but just as important, is the administration's announcement that Medicaid can be used to reimburse this work, specifically noting the eligibility of hospital-based violence intervention and prevention programs. For these programs, this creates a predictable and reliable funding source that has not existed to date. This integration of violence prevention programming in the traditional health care and financing systems represents a critical inflection point in the United States' shifting response to community violence. However, the decision to use this optional benefit lies with each state. States should strongly consider harnessing Medicaid as a wise investment to address the United States' gun violence epidemic. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic and value-based evaluation, level IV.

Unemployment and Crime in US Cities During the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Unemployment and violence both increased during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States (US), but no studies to our knowledge have examined their association. Using data for 16 US cities from January 2018 to July 2020, we estimated the association between acute changes in unemployment during the coronavirus pandemic and violent and acquisitive crime. We used negative binomial regression models and parametric g-computation to estimate average differences in crime incidents if the highest and lowest levels of unemployment observed in each city had been sustained across the exposure period (March-July 2020), compared with observed unemployment in each city-month. During the pandemic, the percentage of the adult population who were unemployed was 8.1 percentage points higher than expected, on average. Increases in unemployment were associated with increases in firearm violence and homicide. For example, we estimated an average increase of 3.3 firearm violence incidents (95% CI: - 0.2, 6.7) and 2.0 homicides (95% CI: - 0.2, 3.9) per city-month from March to July 2020 if all cities experienced their highest versus observed level of unemployment. There was no association between unemployment and aggravated assault or any acquisitive crime. Findings suggest that the sharp rise in unemployment during the pandemic may have contributed to increases in firearm violence and homicide, but not other crime. Additional research is needed on mechanisms of association, generalizability, and modifying factors.

Using synthetic control methodology to estimate effects of a Cure Violence intervention in Baltimore, Maryland.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term impact of Safe Streets Baltimore, which is based on the Cure Violence outreach and violence interruption model, on firearm violence. METHODS: We used synthetic control methods to estimate programme effects on homicides and incidents of non-fatal penetrating firearm injury (non-fatal shootings) in neighbourhoods that had Safe Streets' sites and model-generated counterfactuals. Synthetic control analyses were conducted for each firearm violence outcome in each of the seven areas where Safe Streets was implemented. The study also investigated variation in programme impact over time by generating effect estimates of varying durations for the longest-running programme sites. RESULTS: Synthetic control models reduced prediction error relative to regression analyses. Estimates of Safe Streets' effects on firearm violence varied across intervention sites: some positive, some negative and no effect. Beneficial programme effects on firearm violence reported in prior research were found to have attenuated over time. CONCLUSIONS: For highly targeted interventions, synthetic control methods may provide more valid estimates of programme impact than panel regression with data from all city neighbourhoods. This research offers new understanding about the effectiveness of the Cure Violence intervention over extended periods of time in seven neighbourhoods. Combined with existing Cure Violence evaluation literature, it also raises questions about contextual and implementation factors that might influence programme outcomes.

Neighborhood Racial and Economic Segregation and Disparities in Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Objectives. To describe associations between neighborhood racial and economic segregation and violence during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods. For 13 US cities, we obtained zip code-level data on 5 violence outcomes from March through July 2018 through 2020. Using negative binomial regressions and marginal contrasts, we estimated differences between quintiles of racial, economic, and racialized economic segregation using the Index of Concentration at the Extremes as a measure of neighborhood privilege (1) in 2020 and (2) relative to 2018 through 2019 (difference-in-differences). Results. In 2020, violence was higher in less-privileged neighborhoods than in the most privileged. For example, if all zip codes were in the least privileged versus most privileged quintile of racialized economic segregation, we estimated 146.2 additional aggravated assaults (95% confidence interval = 112.4, 205.8) per zip code on average across cities. Differences over time in less-privileged zip codes were greater than differences over time in the most privileged for firearm violence, aggravated assault, and homicide. Conclusions. Marginalized communities endure endemically high levels of violence. The events of 2020 exacerbated disparities in several forms of violence. Public Health Implications. To reduce violence and related disparities, immediate and long-term investments in low-income neighborhoods of color are warranted. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):144-153. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306540).

Physical Distancing, Violence, and Crime in US Cities during the Coronavirus Pandemic.

Violent crime increased and most property crime decreased in many United States (US) cities during the coronavirus pandemic. Using negative binomial regressions, we examined the association between physical distancing (a central coronavirus containment strategy) and crime within 16 large cities (in 12 US states and the District of Columbia) through July 2020. Physical distancing was measured with aggregated smartphone data and defined as the average change in the percentage of the population staying completely at home. Outcome data were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive and city open data portals. In multivariable models, increases in the percentage of the population staying home were associated with decreases in reported incidents of aggravated assault, interpersonal firearm violence, theft, rape, and robbery, and increases in arson, burglary, and motor vehicle theft. Results suggest that changes in the frequency of interpersonal interactions affected crime during the coronavirus pandemic. More research is needed on the specificity of these assocations and their underlying mechanisms.

Firearm purchasing and firearm violence during the coronavirus pandemic in the United States: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Firearm violence is a significant public health problem in the United States. A surge in firearm purchasing following the onset of the coronavirus pandemic may have contributed to an increase in firearm violence. We sought to estimate the state-level association between firearm purchasing and interpersonal firearm violence during the pandemic. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of the 48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia from January 2018 through July 2020. Data were obtained from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (a proxy for firearm purchasing) and the Gun Violence Archive. Using negative binomial regression models, we estimated the association between cumulative excess firearm purchases in March through July 2020 (measured as the difference between observed rates and those expected from autoregressive integrated moving average models) and injuries (including nonfatal and fatal) from intentional, interpersonal firearm violence (non-domestic and domestic violence). RESULTS: We estimated that there were 4.3 million excess firearm purchases nationally from March through July 2020 and a total of 4075 more firearm injuries than expected from April through July. We found no relationship between state-level excess purchasing and non-domestic firearm violence, e.g., each excess purchase per 100 population was associated with a rate ratio (RR) of firearm injury from non-domestic violence of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.50-1.02) in April; 0.99 (95% CI: 0.72-1.25) in May; 1.10 (95% CI: 0.93-1.32) in June; and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12) in July. Excess firearm purchasing within states was associated with an increase in firearm injuries from domestic violence in April (RR: 2.60; 95% CI: 1.32-5.93) and May (RR: 1.79; 95% CI: 1.19-2.91), though estimates were sensitive to model specification. CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide, firearm purchasing and firearm violence increased substantially during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic. At the state level, the magnitude of the increase in purchasing was not associated with the magnitude of the increase in firearm violence. Increases in purchasing may have contributed to additional firearm injuries from domestic violence in April and May. Results suggest much of the rise in firearm violence during our study period was attributable to other factors, indicating a need for additional research.

Worth the risk? Gun carrying and perceived criminal justice responses in Baltimore.

INTRODUCTION: Policing strategies to deter illegal gun carrying by high-risk people are associated with reductions in gun violence. Many factors influence decisions to use or carry a gun in public, but it is unclear whether perceptions of the criminal justice system's response influence those decisions. METHODS: We used a 2016 cross-sectional survey of criminal justice system-involved men in Baltimore City (n=195) to assess their recent frequency of gun carrying and perceptions of criminal justice system responses. RESULTS: Forty-two per cent of respondents reported carrying a gun at least once; 15% carried a gun at least monthly. Those who carried at least monthly were significantly less likely than others to report that it was likely they would be caught carrying a gun on the street (31% vs 53%). CONCLUSIONS: Challenges with holding accountable those who illegally possess or carry guns in public may influence behaviours and perceptions of the effectiveness of the criminal justice system.

Firearm ownership in California: A latent class analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether firearm ownership and ownership-related motivations and practices can be classified into reasonably distinct types. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on firearm owners (n=429) were obtained from the 2018 California Safety and Well-Being Survey, a state-representative web-based survey. We conducted a latent class analysis using six self-reported indicators of firearm ownership: (1) number of firearms owned, (2) types of firearms owned, (3) primary reason for firearm ownership, (4) firearm storage, (5) loaded handgun carrying and (6) high-capacity magazine ownership. RESULTS: We identified five markedly different classes of firearm ownership. There were two classes of single-firearm owners and three classes of multiple-firearm owners. Only members of one class (9% of owners) were likely to have carried a loaded handgun and to own high-capacity magazines or assault-type weapons. Members of this class were also likely to own 5+ firearms, own for protection against people, and store a firearm in the least secure manner (loaded and unlocked). CONCLUSION: There were distinct classes of firearm ownership in California, and all higher-risk behaviours studied were exhibited disproportionately by members of a single class. This latent class structure, which may help identify higher-risk groups of firearm owners, could inform future research on risk assessment and on focused interventions to reduce firearm injury and death.

Analysis of the Strength of Legal Firearms Restrictions for Perpetrators of Domestic Violence and Their Associations With Intimate Partner Homicide.

In this research, we estimate the association of firearm restrictions for domestic violence offenders with intimate partner homicides (IPHs) on the basis of the strength of the policies. We posit that the association of firearm laws with IPHs depends on the following characteristics of the laws: 1) breadth of coverage of high-risk individuals and situations restricted; 2) power to compel firearm surrender or removal from persons prohibited from having firearms; and 3) systems of accountability that prevent those prohibited from doing so from obtaining guns. We conducted a quantitative policy evaluation using annual state-level data from 1980 through 2013 for 45 US states. Based on the results of a series of robust, negative binomial regression models with state fixed effects, domestic violence restraining order firearm-prohibition laws are associated with 10% reductions in IPH. Statistically significant protective associations were evident only when restraining order prohibitions covered dating partners (-13%) and ex parte orders (-13%) and included relinquishment provisions (-12%). Laws prohibiting access to those convicted of nonspecific violent misdemeanors were associated with a 23% reduction in IPH rates; there was no association when prohibitions were limited to domestic violence. These findings should inform policymakers considering laws to maximize protections against IPH.