An artificial intelligence-generated model predicts 90-day survival in alcohol-associated hepatitis: A global cohort study.

BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.

Enhanced diagnosis and prognosis of severe alcoholic hepatitis using novel metabolomic biomarkers.

AIM: Differentiating alcoholic hepatitis (AH) from acute decompensation of alcoholic cirrhosis (DC) is challenging, as the presentation and biochemistry are similar. We aimed to identify potential metabolomic biomarkers to differentiate between AH and DC, and to predict short-term mortality. METHODS: We included consecutive biopsy proven AH and DC patients, which were managed according to current guidelines and followed up until the end of the study. Untargeted metabolomics was assessed in all patients at baseline. Specific analyses were successively performed to identify potential biomarkers, which were further semi-quantitatively analysed against relevant clinical endpoints. RESULTS: Thirty-four patients with AH and 37 with DC were included. UHPLC-MS analysis identified 83 molecules potentially differentiating between AH and DC. C16-Sphinganine-1P (S1P) was the most increased, whereas Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) was the most decreased. The PGE2/S1P ratio < 1.03 excellently discriminates between AH and DC: AUC 0.965 (p < 0.001), Se 90%, Sp 100%, PPV 0.91, NPV 1, and diagnostic accuracy 95%. This ratio is not influenced by the presence of infection (AUC 0.967 vs. 0.962), correlates with the Lille score at 7 days (r = -0.60; P = 0.022) and tends to be lower in corticosteroid non-responders as compared with patients who responded [0.85(±0.02) vs. 0.89(±0.05), P = 0.069]. Additionally, decreased ursodeoxycholic acid levels are correlated with MELD and Maddrey scores and predict mortality with a 77.27% accuracy (NPV = 100%). CONCLUSION: This study suggests the PGE2 (decreased)/S1P (increased) ratio as a biomarker to differentiate AH from DC. The study also finds that low levels of ursodeoxycholic acid could predict increased mortality in AH.

Development and prognostic relevance of a histologic grading and staging system for alcohol-related liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The SALVE Histopathology Group (SHG) developed and validated a grading and staging system for the clinical and full histological spectrum of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and evaluated its prognostic utility in a multinational cohort of 445 patients. METHODS: SALVE grade was described by semiquantitative scores for steatosis, activity (hepatocellular injury and lobular neutrophils) and cholestasis. The histological diagnosis of steatohepatitis due to ALD (histological ASH, hASH) was based on the presence of hepatocellular ballooning and lobular neutrophils. Fibrosis staging was adapted from the Clinical Research Network staging system for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the Laennec staging system and reflects the pattern and extent of ALD fibrosis. There are 7 SALVE fibrosis stages (SFS) ranging from no fibrosis to severe cirrhosis. RESULTS: Interobserver κ-value for each grading and staging parameter was >0.6. In the whole study cohort, long-term outcome was associated with activity grade and cholestasis, as well as cirrhosis with very broad septa (severe cirrhosis) (p <0.001 for all parameters). In decompensated ALD, adverse short-term outcome was associated with activity grade, hASH and cholestasis (p = 0.038, 0.012 and 0.001, respectively), whereas in compensated ALD, hASH and severe fibrosis/cirrhosis were associated with decompensation-free survival (p = 0.011 and 0.001, respectively). On multivariable analysis, severe cirrhosis emerged as an independent histological predictor of long-term survival in the whole study cohort. Severe cirrhosis and hASH were identified as independent predictors of short-term survival in decompensated ALD, and also as independent predictors of decompensation-free survival in compensated ALD. CONCLUSION: The SALVE grading and staging system is a reproducible and prognostically relevant method for the histological assessment of disease activity and fibrosis in ALD. LAY SUMMARY: Patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) may undergo liver biopsy to assess disease severity. We developed a system to classify ALD under the microscope by grading ALD activity and staging the extent of liver scarring. We validated the prognostic performance of this system in 445 patients from 4 European centers.

Identification of optimal therapeutic window for steroid use in severe alcohol-associated hepatitis: A worldwide study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Corticosteroids are the only effective therapy for severe alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH), defined by a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score >20. However, there are patients who may be too sick to benefit from therapy. Herein, we aimed to identify the range of MELD scores within which steroids are effective for AH. METHODS: We performed a retrospective, international multicenter cohort study across 4 continents, including 3,380 adults with a clinical and/or histological diagnosis of AH. The main outcome was mortality at 30 days. We used a discrete-time survival analysis model, and MELD cut-offs were established using the transform-the-endpoints method. RESULTS: In our cohort, median age was 49 (40-56) years, 76.5% were male, and 79% had underlying cirrhosis. Median MELD at admission was 24 (19-29). Survival was 88% (87-89) at 30 days, 77% (76-78) at 90 days, and 72% (72-74) at 180 days. A total of 1,225 patients received corticosteroids. In an adjusted-survival-model, corticosteroid use decreased 30-day mortality by 41% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.59; 0.47-0.74; p <0.001). Steroids only improved survival in patients with MELD scores between 21 (HR 0.61; 0.39-0.95; p = 0.027) and 51 (HR 0.72; 0.52-0.99; p = 0.041). The maximum effect of corticosteroid treatment (21-30% survival benefit) was observed with MELD scores between 25 (HR 0.58; 0.42-0.77; p <0.001) and 39 (HR 0.57; 0.41-0.79; p <0.001). No corticosteroid benefit was seen in patients with MELD >51. The type of corticosteroids used (prednisone, prednisolone, or methylprednisolone) was not associated with survival benefit (p = 0.247). CONCLUSION: Corticosteroids improve 30-day survival only among patients with severe AH, especially with MELD scores between 25 and 39. LAY SUMMARY: Alcohol-associated hepatitis is a condition where the liver is severely inflamed as a result of excess alcohol use. It is associated with high mortality and it is not clear whether the most commonly used treatments (corticosteroids) are effective, particularly in patients with very severe liver disease. In this worldwide study, the use of corticosteroids was associated with increased 30-day, but not 90- or 180-day, survival. The maximal benefit was observed in patients with an MELD score (a marker of severity of liver disease; higher scores signify worse disease) between 25-39. However, this benefit was lost in patients with the most severe liver disease (MELD score higher than 51).