The Association of Sociodemographic Variables and Unhealthy Behaviors With Limitations in Activities of Daily Living Among Thai Older Adults: Cross-sectional Study and Projected Trends Over the Next 20 Years.

BACKGROUND: Extended life spans have led to an increase in the number of older people and an increase in the prevalence of disability among people older than 60 years of age. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the association of sociodemographic variables and unhealthy behaviors with limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) among Thai older adults. The study also projects the number of older individuals likely to experience ADL limitations in the next 20 years. METHODS: We performed sex-specific multinomial logistic regression analysis based on the 5th Thai National Health Examination Survey in 2014 to investigate the association between sociodemographic variables and health behaviors with ADL limitations among Thai older adults. Age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates of ADL limitations were obtained by applying the same models. These estimates were combined with population projections up to 2040 from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailand, to generate projections of older individuals with ADL limitations. RESULTS: Age and physical activity were significant factors for both sexes, with age positively associated with the level of ADL limitations and low physical activity associated with an increased relative probability of mild or moderate to severe ADL limitations compared to individuals with no ADL limitation (1.2-2.2 times). Other variables such as education, marital status, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, alcohol consumption, and having a fruit- and vegetable-based diet showed significant associations, but the results varied regarding sex and levels of ADL limitations. This study also projected the number of older adults with mild and moderate to severe ADL limitations over the next 20 years from 2020 to 2040, revealing an increase of 3.2 and 3.1 times, respectively, along with a significant increase in men compared to that in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified age and physical activity as significant factors associated with ADL limitations in older adults, while other factors showed varying associations. Over the next 2 decades, projections suggest a significant increase in the number of older adults with ADL limitations, particularly men. Our findings emphasize the importance of interventions to reduce ADL limitations, and health care providers should consider various factors impacting them.

Estimated Impacts of Alcohol Control Policies on NCD Premature Deaths in Thailand.

Background: This study aimed to assess the impacts of achieving a 10% alcohol reduction target and different alcohol policy interventions on NCD premature deaths during 2010-2025 in Thailand. Methods: The researchers estimated the impacts on three main NCDs: cancers, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes. These represent two ideal scenarios, which are the target reduction and five intervention scenarios. These intervention scenarios comprise taxation with 50% price increases, a total ban on advertisements, availability restriction by shortening sales times, early psychological intervention, and combined interventions. Consumption data and mortality trends were obtained from available national data. Relative risks and intervention effects were derived from the literature. Results: Achieving a 10% reduction target would lead to 3903-7997 avoidable NCD deaths. Taxation was the most effective intervention, with the highest number of avoidable NCD deaths, followed by early psychological intervention, availability restriction, and an advertisement ban. A combination of these four interventions would reduce 13,286 NCD deaths among men and 4994 NCD deaths among women, accounting for 46.8% of the NCD mortality target. Conclusion: This study suggests using Thailand as an example for low- and middle-income countries to enhance implementation and enforcement of the recommended effective alcohol policies for achieving the global targets.

Mortality estimates for WHO SEAR countries: problems and prospects.

Cause-specific mortality estimates for 11 countries located in the WHO's South East Asia Region (WHO SEAR) are generated periodically by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO Global Health Estimates (GHE) analyses. A comparison of GBD and GHE estimates for 2019 for 11 specific causes of epidemiological importance to South East Asia was undertaken. An index of relative difference (RD) between the estimated numbers of deaths by sex for each cause from the two sources for each country was calculated, and categorised as marginal (RD=±0%-9%), moderate (RD=±10%-19%), high (RD=±20%-39%) and extreme (RD>±40%). The comparison identified that the RD was >10% in two-thirds of all instances. The RD was 'high' or 'extreme' for deaths from tuberculosis, diarrhoea, road injuries and suicide for most SEAR countries, and for deaths from most of the 11 causes in Bangladesh, DPR Korea, Myanmar, Nepal and Sri Lanka. For all WHO SEAR countries, mortality estimates from both sources are based on statistical models developed from an international historical cause-specific mortality data series that included very limited empirical data from the region. Also, there is no scientific rationale available to justify the reliability of one set of estimates over the other. The characteristics of national mortality statistics systems for each WHO SEAR country were analysed, to understand the reasons for weaknesses in empirical data. The systems analysis identified specific limitations in structure, organisation and implementation that affect data completeness, validity of causes of death and vital statistics production, which vary across countries. Therefore, customised national strategies are required to strengthen mortality statistics systems to meet immediate and long-term data needs for health policy and research, and reduce dependence on current unreliable modelled estimates.

Associations between alcohol consumption trajectory and deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality: a 30-year follow-up cohort study in Thailand.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the association between alcohol consumption trajectory and deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in Thailand. DESIGN: Data were obtained from a Thai prospective cohort study with more than 30 years of follow-up (n=1961). SETTING: All participants resided in Bangkok and its vicinity. PARTICIPANTS: Employees from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand aged between 35 and 54 years old were randomly selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Exposure was alcohol consumption trajectory over the study period from 1985 to 2012. The main outcomes were all-cause mortality, and deaths due to cancer and CVDs recorded in national vital registries between 2002 and 2015. Cox's proportional hazard regression was used to determine the associations between alcohol consumption trajectory and each outcome adjusting for sample characteristics, health behaviours and health conditions. RESULTS: From a total of 59 312 person years, 276 deaths were observed. Compared with drinkers who drank occasionally or most occasional over their lifetime, consistent regular or mostly consistent-regular drinkers had higher rates of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.53; 95% CI 1.09 to 2.16) and cancer mortality (HR: 2.05; 95% CI 1.13 to 3.74). The study did not find a significant association between trajectory of alcohol consumption and deaths due to CVDs. CONCLUSIONS: Regular drinking of alcohol increased risk for all-cause and cancer mortality. Effective interventions should be implemented to reduce number of regular drinkers in order to saves life of individuals.

Smoking prevalence and attributable deaths in Thailand: predicting outcomes of different tobacco control interventions.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial positive impacts of Thailand's tobacco control policies on reducing the prevalence of smoking, current trends suggest that further reductions are needed to ensure that WHO's 2025 voluntary global target of a 30% relative reduction in tobacco use is met. In order to confirm this hypothesis, we aim to estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Thailand on the prevalence of smoking and attributed deaths and assess the possibilities of achieving WHO's 2025 global target. This paper addresses this knowledge gap which will contribute to policy control measures on tobacco control. Results of this study can help guide policy makers in implementing further interventions to reduce the prevalence of smoking in Thailand. METHOD: A Markov chain model was developed to examine the effect of tobacco control policies, such as accessibility restrictions for youths, increased tobacco taxes and promotion of smoking cessation programs, from 2015 to 2025. Outcomes included smoking prevalence and the number of smoking-attributable deaths. Due to the very low prevalence of female smokers in 2014, this study applied the model to estimate the smoking prevalence and attributable mortality among males only. RESULTS: Given that the baseline prevalence of smoking in 2010 was 41.7% in males, the target of a 30% relative reduction requires that the prevalence be reduced to 29.2% by 2025. Under a baseline scenario where smoking initiation and cessation rates among males are attained by 2015, smoking prevalence rates will reduce to 37.8% in 2025. The combined tobacco control policies would further reduce the prevalence to 33.7% in 2025 and 89,600 deaths would be averted. CONCLUSION: Current tobacco control policies will substantially reduce the smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. The combined interventions can reduce the smoking prevalence by 19% relative to the 2010 level. These projected reductions are insufficient to achieve the committed target of a 30% relative reduction in smoking by 2025. Increased efforts to control tobacco use will be essential for reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases in Thailand.

The Socioeconomic Burden of Cholangiocarcinoma Associated With Opisthorchis viverrini Sensu Lato Infection in Northeast Thailand: A Preliminary Analysis.

The northeast of Thailand, which is the poorest region of the country, has the highest incidence of cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) worldwide. This is associated with infection with the liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini. Although an estimated 20,000 people die every year of this disease, the socioeconomic impact of this mortality on the victims' family and the community in which he or she lived remains unknown. Here, we provide background information on the socioeconomic groups most effected by CCA and provide a qualitative estimate of the likely financial burden on the family and community. Most victims of CCA are small-scale farmers. Mortality occurs most commonly in males between the ages of 40 and 65, having either children or grandchildren to support. Costs can be divided between premortality with the family paying for transport and accommodation to the hospital, as well as costs not covered by the Thai Universal Health Coverage scheme. The main costs, however, are likely to be postmortem with loss of income and potentially the loss of a major contributor to farm work. What is urgently required is a quantitative estimate of the costs of CCA and long-term studies of the families and communities affected to determine where and how the burden of CCA falls.

Burden of disease attributed to ambient air pollution in Thailand: A GIS-based approach.

BACKGROUND: Growing urbanisation and population requiring enhanced electricity generation as well as the increasing numbers of fossil fuel in Thailand pose important challenges to air quality management which impacts on the health of the population. Mortality attributed to ambient air pollution is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). We estimated the spatial pattern of mortality burden attributable to selected ambient air pollution in 2009 based on the empirical evidence in Thailand. METHODS: We estimated the burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution based on the comparative risk assessment (CRA) framework developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD). We integrated geographical information systems (GIS)-based exposure assessments into spatial interpolation models to estimate ambient air pollutant concentrations, the population distribution of exposure and the concentration-response (CR) relationship to quantify ambient air pollution exposure and associated mortality. We obtained air quality data from the Pollution Control Department (PCD) of Thailand surface air pollution monitoring network sources and estimated the CR relationship between relative risk (RR) and concentration of air pollutants from the epidemiological literature. RESULTS: We estimated 650-38,410 ambient air pollution-related fatalities and 160-5,982 fatalities that could have been avoided with a 20 reduction in ambient air pollutant concentrations. The summation of population-attributable fraction (PAF) of the disease burden for all-causes mortality in adults due to NO2 and PM2.5 were the highest among all air pollutants at 10% and 7.5%, respectively. The PAF summation of PM2.5 for lung cancer and cardiovascular disease were 16.8% and 14.6% respectively and the PAF summations of mortality attributable to PM10 was 3.4% for all-causes mortality, 1.7% for respiratory and 3.8% for cardiovascular mortality, while the PAF summation of mortality attributable to NO2 was 7.8% for respiratory mortality in Thailand. CONCLUSION: Mortality due to ambient air pollution in Thailand varies across the country. Geographical distribution estimates can identify high exposure areas for planners and policy-makers. Our results suggest that the benefits of a 20% reduction in ambient air pollution concentration could prevent up to 25% of avoidable fatalities each year in all-causes, respiratory and cardiovascular categories. Furthermore, our findings can provide guidelines for future epidemiological investigations and policy decisions to achieve the SDGs.

Area-level socioeconomic deprivation and mortality differentials in Thailand: results from principal component analysis and cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite achievement of universal health coverage in Thailand, socioeconomic inequality in health has been a major policy concern. This study examined mortality patterns across different socioeconomic strata in Thailand. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the 2010 Population and Housing Census on area-level socioeconomic deprivation against the 2010 mortality from the vital registration database at the super-district level. We used principal components analysis to construct a socioeconomic deprivation index and K-mean cluster analysis to group socioeconomic status and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Excess mortality rates from all diseases, except colorectal cancer, were observed among super-districts with low socioeconomic status. Spatial clustering was evident in the distribution of socioeconomic status and mortality rates. Cluster analysis revealed that super-districts which were predominantly urban tended to have low all-cause standardize mortality ratio but a high colorectal cancer-specific mortality rate. Deaths due to liver cancer, diabetes, and renal diseases were common in the low socioeconomic super-districts which hosted one third of the total Thai population. CONCLUSION: Socially deprived areas have an excess of overall and cause specific deaths. Populations living in more affluent areas, despite low general mortality, still have many preventable deaths such as colorectal cancer. These findings warrant future epidemiological studies investigating various causes of excessive deaths in non-deprived areas and implementation of policies to reduce the mortality gap between rich and poor areas.

Contributions of national and global health estimates to monitoring health-related Sustainable Development Goals in Thailand.

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) triggered increased demand for data on child and maternal mortality for monitoring progress. With the advent of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and growing evidence of an epidemiological transition towards non-communicable diseases, policy makers need data on mortality and disease trends and distribution to inform effective policies and support monitoring progress. Where there are limited capacities to produce national health estimates (NHEs), global health estimates (GHEs) can fill gaps for global monitoring and comparisons. This paper draws lessons learned from Thailand's burden of disease study (BOD) on capacity development for NHEs, and discusses the contributions and limitation of GHEs in informing policies at country level. Through training and technical support by external partners, capacities are gradually strengthened and institutionalized to enable regular updates of BOD at national and sub-national levels. Initially, the quality of cause of death reporting in the death certificates was inadequate, especially for deaths occurring in the community. Verbal autopsies were conducted, using domestic resources, to determine probable causes of deaths occurring in the community. This helped improve the estimation of years of life lost. Since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002, the quality of clinical data on morbidities has also considerably improved. There are significant discrepancies between the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) estimates for Thailand and the 1999 nationally generated BOD, especially for years of life lost due to HIV/AIDS, and the ranking of priority diseases. National ownership of NHEs and effective interfaces between researchers and decision makers contribute to enhanced country policy responses, while sub-national data are intended to be used by various sub-national-level partners. Though GHEs contribute to benchmarking country achievement compared with global health commitments, they may hamper development of NHE capacities. GHEs should encourage and support countries to improve their data systems and develop a data infrastructure that supports the production of empirical data needed to underpin estimation efforts.

Post universal health coverage trend and geographical inequalities of mortality in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: Thailand has achieved remarkable improvement in health status since the achievement of universal health coverage in 2002. Health equity has improved significantly. However, challenges on health inequity still remain.This study aimed to determine the trends of geographical inequalities in disease specific mortality in Thailand after the country achieved universal health coverage. METHODS: National vital registration data from 2001 to 2014 were used to calculate age-adjusted mortality rate and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). To minimize large variations in mortality across administrative districts, the adjacent districts were systematically grouped into "super-districts" by taking into account the population size and proximity. Geographical mortality inequality among super-districts was measured by the coefficient of variation. Mixed effects modeling was used to test the difference in trends between super-districts. RESULTS: The overall SMR steadily declined from 1.2 in 2001 to 0.9 in 2014. The upper north and upper northeast regions had higher SMR whereas Greater Bangkok achieved the lowest SMR. Decreases in SMR were mostly seen in Greater Bangkok and the upper northern region. Coefficient of variation of SMR rapidly decreased from 20.0 in 2001 to 12.5 in 2007 and remained close to this value until 2014. The mixed effects modelling revealed significant differences in trends of SMR across super-districts. Inequality in mortality declined among adults (≥15 years old) but increased in children (0-14 years old). A declining trend in inequality of mortality was seen in almost all regions except Greater Bangkok where the inequality in SMR remained high throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: A decline in the adult mortality inequality across almost all regions of Thailand followed universal health coverage. Inequalities in child mortality rates and among residents of Greater Bangkok need further exploration.

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PATTERNS OF TRANSPORT ACCIDENT MORTALITY IN THAILAND.

This study aimed to explore patterns of transport accident mortality in Thailand between 2004 and 2009. Vital Registration (VR) data were obtained from the Thai Ministry of Public Health and corrected causes of death were derived from Verbal Autopsy (VA) data collected in 2005. A total of 136,164 deaths were analyzed. Poisson regression was used for identifying mortality patterns with respect to gender-age groups and province-year groups. Regression coefficients were used to classify mortality trends for the 76 provinces. The estimated number of transport accident deaths was 2.2 times higher than VR records. The mean estimated transport accident mortality rate was 34.5 per 100,000 population. The estimated transport accident mortality rates were highest among males aged 20-29 years and in the central region, lower northern region and Nakhon Ratchasima Province in the northeastern region. The patterns of transport accident mortality rates were separated into nine groups. Increasing trends were found in three provinces in the northern region, four provinces in the central and eastern regions and five provinces in the southern region. Nine models developed for these nine groups may be helpful for estimating future transport accident mortality rates in Thailand and developing appropriate responses.

Economic burden from smoking-related diseases in Thailand.

OBJECTIVE: To assess economic burden attributable to smoking in Thailand in 2009. METHODS: A prevalence-based, disease-specific cost of illness approach was used to estimate the direct medical costs, indirect medical costs, productivity loss due to premature deaths and absenteeism caused by smoking-related diseases. Direct healthcare costs were obtained from the inpatient and outpatient charge database at the National Health Security Office and the Central Office for Healthcare Information. Indirect healthcare costs were obtained from the Health and Welfare Survey. The household Socioeconomic Survey provided data on income of the population. Costs were estimated for 7 disease groups, namely, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), upper aerodigestive tract cancer, other cancer, other respiratory diseases and other medical conditions. Smoking Attributable Fractions were derived from the 2009 Thai Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: Total economic burden of smoking amounted to 74.88 billion Thai Baht (THB) (95% CI 74.59 to 75.18) (US$2.18, 95% CI US$2.17 to US$2.19 billion). Of this, most of the burden resulted from productivity loss 62.24 billion THB (95% CI 62.05 to 62.44) (US$1.81, 95% CI US$1.81 to US$1.82 billion). Total medical cost was 12.64 billion THB (12.44 to 12.85) (US$0.37, 95% CI US$0.36 to US$0.37 billion). Excluding other medical conditions, the direct healthcare costs were highest for CVD, followed by COPD and other respiratory diseases, respectively. All together, the total cost of smoking accounted for 0.78% (95% CI 0.78% to 0.79%) of the national gross domestic product and about 18.19% (95% CI 18.12% to 18.27%) of total health expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: The total economic loss from smoking-related diseases highlights the significant loss to the society, health sector and the country's economy. Such information is crucial for informing national public health policy, particularly when a conflict arises between the economy and health.

Additional Burden of Diseases Associated with Cadmium Exposure: A Case Study of Cadmium Contaminated Rice Fields in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, Thailand.

The cadmium (Cd) contaminated rice fields in Mae Sot District, Tak Province, Thailand has been one of the major environmental problems in Thailand for the last 10 years. We used disability adjusted life years (DALYs) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to Cd in terms of additional DALYs of Mae Sot residents. Cd exposure data included Cd and ß2-microglobulin (ß2-MG) in urine (as an internal exposure dose) and estimated cadmium daily intake (as an external exposure dose). Compared to the general Thai population, Mae Sot residents gained 10%-86% DALYs from nephrosis/nephritis, heart diseases, osteoporosis and cancer depending on their Cd exposure type and exposure level. The results for urinary Cd and dietary Cd intake varied according to the studies used for risk estimation. The ceiling effect was observed in results using dietary Cd intake because of the high Cd content in rice grown in the Mae Sot area. The results from ß2-MG were more robust with additional DALYs ranging from 36%-86% for heart failure, cerebral infraction, and nephrosis/nephritis. Additional DALYs is a useful approach for assessing the magnitude of environmental Cd exposure. The Mae Sot population lost more healthy life compared to populations living in a non- or less Cd polluted area. This method should be applicable to various types of environmental contamination problems if exposure assessment information is available.

Influenza-associated mortality in Thailand, 2006-2011.

BACKGROUND: Influenza-associated mortality in subtropical or tropical regions, particularly in developing countries, remains poorly quantified and often underestimated. We analyzed data in Thailand, a middle-income tropical country with good vital statistics and influenza surveillance data. METHODS: We obtained weekly mortality data for all-cause and three underlying causes of death (circulatory and respiratory diseases, and pneumonia and influenza), and weekly influenza virus data, from 2006 to 2011. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate deaths attributable to influenza in two age groups (<65 and ≥65 years) by incorporating influenza viral data as covariates in the model. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2011, the average annual influenza-associated mortality per 100 000 persons was 4·0 (95% CI: -18 to 26). Eighty-three percent of influenza-associated deaths occurred among persons aged > 65 years. The average annual rate of influenza-associated deaths was 0·7 (95% CI: -8·2 to 10) per 100 000 population for person aged <65 years and 42 (95% CI: -137 to 216) for person aged ≥ 65 years. DISCUSSION: In Thailand, estimated excess mortality associated with influenza was considerable even during non-pandemic years. These data provide support for Thailand's seasonal influenza vaccination campaign. Continued monitoring of mortality data is important to assess impact.

Diseases Burden of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Attributable to Ground-Level Ozone in Thailand: Estimates Based on Surface Monitoring Measurements Data.

BACKGROUND: Ambient ozone (O3) pollution has increased globally since preindustrial times. At present, O3 is one of the major air pollution concerns in Thailand, and is associated with health impacts such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The objective of our study is to estimate the burden of disease attributed to O3 in 2009 in Thailand based on empirical evidence. METHODS: We estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to O3 using the comparative risk assessment framework in the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study. We quantified the population attributable fraction (PAF), integrated from Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based spatial interpolation, the population distribution of exposure, and the exposure-response coefficient to spatially characterize exposure to ambient O3 pollution on a national scale. Exposure distribution was derived from GIS-based spatial interpolation O3 exposure model using Pollution Control Department Thailand (PCD) surface air pollution monitor network sources. Relative risk (RR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were determined using health impact function estimates for O3. RESULT: PAF (%) of COPD attributable to O3 were determined by region: at approximately, Northern=2.1, Northeastern=7.1, Central=9.6, Eastern=1.75, Western=1.47 and Southern=1.74. The total COPD burden attributable to O3 for Thailand in 2009 was 61,577 DALYs. Approximately 0.6% of the total DALYs in Thailand is male: 48,480 DALYs; and female: 13,097 DALYs. CONCLUSION: This study provides the first empirical evidence on the health burden (DALYs) attributable to O3 pollution in Thailand. Varying across regions, the disease burden attributable to O3 was 0.6% of the total national burden in 2009. Better empirical data on local specific sites, e.g. urban and rural areas, alternative exposure assessment, e.g. land use regression (LUR), and a local concentration-response coefficient are required for future studies in Thailand.

A logistic regression model for estimating transport accident deaths using verbal autopsy data.

This study aimed to create an appropriate model using verbal autopsy (VA) data to estimate transport accident deaths from vital registration data in Thailand. A sample of 9644 VA deaths was obtained from the Thai Ministry of Public Health. VA assessed transport accidents accounted for 546 deaths (5.7% of sample). Logistic regression was used to model transport accident deaths classified by 9 provinces, 16 gender-age groups, 14 combinations of vital reported cause groups, and place of death (in or outside hospital). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to match the number of reported transport accident deaths to the number predicted by the model with sensitivity 73.8% and false positive rate 1.6%. The estimated transport accident deaths ranged from 1.68 to 2.65 times higher than the vital registration data reported according to gender-age groups.

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians.

Infectious disease mortality rates, Thailand, 1958-2009.

To better define infectious diseases of concern in Thailand, trends in the mortality rate during 1958-2009 were analyzed by using data from public health statistics reports. From 1958 to the mid-1990s, the rate of infectious disease-associated deaths declined 5-fold (from 163.4 deaths/100,000 population in 1958 to 29.5/100,000 in 1997). This average annual reduction of 3.2 deaths/100,000 population was largely attributed to declines in deaths related to malaria, tuberculosis, pneumonia, and gastrointestinal infections. However, during 1998-2003, the mortality rate increased (peak of 70.0 deaths/100,000 population in 2003), coinciding with increases in mortality rate from AIDS, tuberculosis, and pneumonia. During 2004-2009, the rate declined to 41.0 deaths/100,000 population, coinciding with a decrease in AIDS-related deaths. The emergence of AIDS and the increase in tuberculosis- and pneumonia-related deaths in the late twentieth century emphasize the need to direct resources and efforts to the control of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases.

Burden of disease in Thailand: changes in health gap between 1999 and 2004.

BACKGROUND: Continuing comprehensive assessment of population health gap is essential for effective health planning. This paper assessed changes in the magnitude and pattern of disease burden in Thailand between 1999 and 2004. It further drew lessons learned from applying the global burden of disease (GBD) methods to the Thai context for other developing country settings. METHODS: Multiple sources of mortality and morbidity data for both years were assessed and used to estimate Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) loss for 110 specific diseases and conditions relevant to the country's health problems. Causes of death from national vital registration were adjusted for misclassification from a verbal autopsy study. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2004, DALYs loss per 1,000 population in 2004 slightly decreased in men but a minor increase in women was observed. HIV/AIDS maintained the highest burden for men in both 1999 and 2004 while in 2004, stroke took over the 1999 first rank of HIV/AIDS in women. Among the top twenty diseases, there was a slight increase of the proportion of non-communicable diseases and two out of three infectious diseases revealed a decrease burden except for lower respiratory tract infections. CONCLUSION: The study highlights unique pattern of disease burden in Thailand whereby epidemiological transition have occurred as non-communicable diseases were on the rise but burden from HIV/AIDS resulting from the epidemic in the 1990s remains high and injuries show negligent change. Lessons point that assessing DALY over time critically requires continuing improvement in data sources particularly on cause of death statistics, institutional capacity and long term commitments.

Geographical variations in all-cause mortality in Thailand.

In this study, we examined age-specific death rates among men and women from various districts in Thailand using mortality data from 1999 to 2001. A Poisson generalized linear model was used for analysis. To adjust for large variations in resident populations among districts, the 926 districts in Thailand were reduced to 235 "superdistricts" based on a minimum population of 200,000. The Poisson model incorporating additive factors for age-group and superdistrict generally provided a good fit for these data. The fitted mortality rates among the 235 superdistricts were compared with the overall means for each gender (637 per 100,000 for males and 415 per 100,000 for females). Thematic maps were created with three different colors signifying each superdistrict's mortality rate compared to the mean. Northeastern Thailand had higher than average mortality for both males and females. Lower than average death rates were found in southern Thailand with the exception of Phuket and Narathiwat, and in Bangkok, except for females in the superdistrict containing Nong Chok and Lat Krabang Districts. This modeling and mapping approach is a useful preliminary tool enabling public health planners to determine statistically valid geographical variations in mortality and to develop effective interventions.