Time Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Across the BRICS: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Key Nations With Emerging Economies Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are emerging economies making up almost half the global population. We analyzed trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality across the BRICS and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Mortality estimates were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate cohort and period effects in CVD between 1992 and 2016. Period was defined as survey year, and period effects reflect population-wide exposure at a circumscribed point in time. Cohort effects are defined as differences in risks across birth cohort. Net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks were calculated. RESULTS: In 2016, there were 8.4 million CVD deaths across the BRICS. Between 1992 and 2016, the reduction in CVD age-standardized mortality rate in BRICS (-17%) was less than in North America (-39%). Eighty-eight percent of the increased number of all-cause deaths resulted from the increase in CVD deaths. The age-standardized mortality rate from stroke and hypertensive heart disease declined by approximately one-third across the BRICS, whereas ischemic heart disease increased slightly (2%). Brazil had the largest age-standardized mortality rate reductions across all CVD categories, with improvement both over time and in recent birth cohorts. South Africa was the only country where the CVD age-standardized mortality rate increased. Different age-related CVD mortality was seen in those ≥50 years of age in China, ≤40 years of age in Russia, 35 to 60 years of age in India, and ≥55 years of age in South Africa. Improving period and cohort risks for CVD mortality were generally found across countries, except for worsening period effects in India and greater risks for ischemic heart disease in Chinese cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s. CONCLUSIONS: Except for Brazil, reductions of CVD mortality across the BRICS have been less than that in North America, such that China, India, and South Africa contribute an increasing proportion of global CVD deaths. Brazil's example suggests that prevention policies can both reduce the risks for younger birth cohorts and shift the risks for all age groups over time.

The Association of the Body Composition of Children with 24-Hour Activity Composition.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate how the reallocation of time between sleep, sedentary time, light, and moderate-vigorous activities is associated with children's body composition. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional Child Health CheckPoint within the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n = 938 11-12 year-olds, 50% boys). Twenty-four hour activity composition via accelerometry (minutes/day of sleep, sedentary time, light, and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity [MVPA]) and 3-part body composition (percentage truncal fat, percentage nontruncal fat, and percentage fat-free mass) via bioelectrical impedance analysis were measured. We estimated differences in 3-part body composition associated with the incremental reallocation of time between activities, using dual-compositional regression models adjusted for sex, age, puberty, and socioeconomic position. RESULTS: Reallocation of time between MVPA and any other activity was strongly associated with differences in body composition. Adverse body composition differences were larger for a given MVPA decrease than were the beneficial differences for an equivalent MVPA increase. For example, 15 minutes less MVPA (relative to remaining activities) was associated with absolute percentage differences of +1.7% (95% CI 1.2; 2.4) for truncal fat, +0.8% (0.6; 1.2) for nontruncal fat, and -2.6% (-3.5; -1.9) for fat-free mass, and a 15-minute increase was associated with -0.7% (-0.9; -0.5) truncal fat, -0.4% (-0.5; -0.3) nontruncal fat, and +1.1% (0.9; 1.5) fat-free mass. Reallocations between sleep, sedentary time, and light physical activity were not associated with differences in body composition. CONCLUSIONS: Preventing declines in MVPA during inactive periods (eg, holidays) may be an important intervention goal. More MVPA, instead of other activities, may benefit body composition.

Maternal Chorioamnionitis and Postneonatal Respiratory Tract Infection in Ex-Preterm Infants.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether exposure to histologically confirmed chorioamnionitis (ie, histologic chorioamnionitis [HCA]) is associated with altered risk of infection-related hospitalization (IRH) during the first 24 months of life in very preterm infants. STUDY DESIGN: This single-center retrospective cohort study analyzed data on 1218 infants born at <30 weeks gestational age (GA). Semiquantitative placental histology, obstetric, and neonatal data were extracted from hospital databases and linked with discharge diagnoses on rehospitalization until age 24 months from statewide statutory data. The associations between HCA and overall and clinical categories of IRH were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression with left-truncated failure times. RESULTS: Mean GA was 27 weeks, and HCA was present in 577 placentas (47.4%). Among the 1088 infants surviving until the birth-related discharge, 684 (62.9%) of had at least 1 IRH by age 24 months, of whom 287 included a diagnosis of acute lower respiratory tract infection (ALRTI). Following adjustment for sex, birth weight z-score, GA, early-onset sepsis, late-onset sepsis, previous antibiotic use, age at birth-related discharge, and chronic lung disease, HCA was associated with a 32% increased risk of hospitalization with ALRTI (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.02-1.70; P = .033). There was no association with infection overall or with other infection categories. CONCLUSIONS: HCA is associated with a significantly increased risk of hospitalization with ALRTI that is independent of known risk factors, including chronic lung disease.