Exploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014-2016 outbreak in Colombia.

New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face difficult decisions regarding spatial targeting of interventions to optimally allocate limited resources. We used a large-scale, data-driven, agent-based simulation model (ABM) to explore CHIKV mitigation strategies, including strategies based on previous DENV outbreaks. Our model represents CHIKV transmission in a realistic population of Colombia with 45 million individuals in 10.6 million households, schools, and workplaces. Our model uses high-resolution probability maps for the occurrence of the Ae. aegypti mosquito vector to estimate mosquito density in Colombia. We found that vector control in all 521 municipalities with mosquito populations led to 402,940 fewer clinical cases of CHIKV compared to a baseline scenario without intervention. We also explored using data about previous dengue virus (DENV) epidemics to inform CHIKV mitigation strategies. Compared to the baseline scenario, 314,437 fewer cases occurred when we simulated vector control only in 301 municipalities that had previously reported DENV, illustrating the value of available data from previous outbreaks. When varying the implementation parameters for vector control, we found that faster implementation and scale-up of vector control led to the greatest proportionate reduction in cases. Using available data for epidemic simulations can strengthen decision making against new epidemic threats.

Development of antibody biomarkers of long term and recent dengue virus infections.

Dengue virus (DENV) infections elicit antibody responses to the non-structural protein 1 (NS1) that are associated with protection against disease. However, the antibody isotypes and subclasses involved, and their kinetics have not been extensively studied. We characterized the antibody responses to DENV NS1 by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in a longitudinal cohort of 266 confirmed dengue cases in Recife, Northeast Brazil. Samples were collected during the febrile phase and up to over 3 years after onset of symptoms. The antibodies investigated [IgA, IgM, total IgG (all subclasses measured together) and each subclass (IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4) measured separately] had distinct kinetic profiles following primary or secondary DENV infections. Of interest, most of these antibodies were consistently detected greater than 6 months after onset of symptoms, except for IgG3. Anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG was consistently detected from the acute phase to beyond 3 years after symptom onset. In contrast, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG3 was detected within the first week, peaked at week 2-3, and disappeared within 4-6 months after onset of symptoms. The mean duration of the IgG3 positive signal was 149 days (ranging from 126 to 172 days). In conclusion, anti-dengue NS1-specific IgG and IgG3 are potential biomarkers of long-term and recent (less than 6 months) DENV infections, respectively.