Correction: Multilevel model for airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease applied to Swedish livestock.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232489.].

Multilevel model for airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease applied to Swedish livestock.

The foot-and-mouth disease is an ever-present hazard to the livestock industry due to the huge economic consequences following an outbreak that necessitates culling of possibly infected animals in vast numbers. The disease is highly contagious and previous epizootics have shown that it spreads by many routes. One such route is airborne transmission, which has been investigated in this study by means of a detailed multilevel model that includes all scales of an outbreak. Local spread within an infected farm is described by a stochastic compartment model while the spread between farms is quantified by atmospheric dispersion simulations using a network representation of the set of farms. The model was applied to the Swedish livestock industry and the risk for an epizootic outbreak in Sweden was estimated using the basic reproduction number of each individual livestock-holding farm as the endpoint metric. The study was based on comprehensive official data sets for both the current livestock holdings and regional meteorological conditions. Three species of farm animals are susceptible to the disease and are present in large numbers: cattle, pigs and sheep. These species are all included in this study using their individual responses and consequences to the disease. It was concluded that some parts of southern Sweden are indeed preconditioned to harbor an airborne epizootic, while the sparse farm population of the north renders such events unlikely to occur there. The distribution of the basic reproduction number spans over several orders of magnitudes with low risk of disease spread from the majority of the farms while some farms may act as very strong disease transmitters. The results may serve as basic data in the planning of the national preparedness for this type of events.

The effect of subsurface military detonations on vadose zone hydraulic conductivity, contaminant transport and aquifer recharge.

Live fire military training involves the detonation of explosive warheads on training ranges. The purpose of this experiment is to evaluate the hydrogeological changes to the vadose zone caused by military training with high explosive ammunition. In particular, this study investigates artillery ammunition which penetrates underground prior to exploding, either by design or by defective fuze mechanisms. A 105 mm artillery round was detonated 2.6 m underground, and hydraulic conductivity measurements were taken before and after the explosion. A total of 114 hydraulic conductivity measurements were obtained within a radius of 3m from the detonation point, at four different depths and at three different time periods separated by 18months. This data was used to produce a three dimensional numerical model of the soil affected by the exploding artillery round. This model was then used to investigate potential changes to aquifer recharge and contaminant transport caused by the detonating round. The results indicate that an exploding artillery round can strongly affect the hydraulic conductivity in the vadose zone, increasing it locally by over an order of magnitude. These variations, however, appear to cause relatively small changes to both local groundwater recharge and contaminant transport.