Progress Toward Measles Elimination - African Region, 2017-2021.

Worldwide, measles remains a major cause of disease and death; the highest incidence is in the World Health Organization African Region (AFR). In 2011, the 46 AFR member states established a goal of regional measles elimination by 2020; this report describes progress during 2017-2021. Regional coverage with a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) decreased from 70% in 2017 to 68% in 2021, and the number of countries with ≥95% coverage decreased from six (13%) to two (4%). The number of countries providing a second MCV dose increased from 27 (57%) to 38 (81%), and second-dose coverage increased from 25% to 41%. Approximately 341 million persons were vaccinated in supplementary immunization activities, and an estimated 4.5 million deaths were averted by vaccination. However, the number of countries meeting measles surveillance performance indicators declined from 26 (62%) to nine (22%). Measles incidence increased from 69.2 per 1 million population in 2017 to 81.9 in 2021. The number of estimated annual measles cases and deaths increased 22% and 8%, respectively. By December 2021, no country in AFR had received verification of measles elimination. To achieve a renewed regional goal of measles elimination in at least 80% of countries by 2030, intensified efforts are needed to recover and surpass levels of surveillance performance and coverage with 2 MCV doses achieved before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Progress Toward Hepatitis B Control and Elimination of Mother-to-Child Transmission of Hepatitis B Virus - World Health Organization African Region, 2016-2021.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is one of the leading causes of cirrhosis and liver cancer. In 2019, approximately 1.5 million persons newly acquired chronic HBV infection; among these, 990,000 (66%) were in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR). Most chronic HBV infections are acquired through mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) or during early childhood, and approximately two thirds of these infections occur in AFR. In 2016, the World Health Assembly endorsed the goal of elimination of mother-to-child transmission (EMTCT) of HBV, documented by ≥90% coverage with both a timely hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) birth dose (HepB-BD) and 3 infant doses of HepB (HepB3), and ≤0.1% hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence among children aged ≤5 years. In 2016, the WHO African Regional Committee endorsed targets for a 30% reduction in incidence (≤2% HBsAg seroprevalence in children aged ≤5 years) and ≥90% HepB3 coverage by 2020. By 2021, all 47 countries in the region provided HepB3 to infants beginning at age 6 weeks, and 14 countries (30%) provided HepB-BD. By December 2021, 16 (34%) countries achieved ≥90% HepB3 coverage, and only two (4%) achieved ≥90% timely HepB-BD coverage. Eight countries (17%) conducted nationwide serosurveys among children born after the introduction of HepB to assess HBsAg seroprevalence: six countries had achieved ≤2% seroprevalence, but none had achieved ≤0.1% seroprevalence among children. The development of immunization recovery plans following the COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to accelerate progress toward hepatitis B control and EMTCT, including introducing HepB-BD and increasing coverage with timely HepB-BD and HepB3 vaccination. Representative HBsAg serosurveys among children and a regional verification body for EMTCT of HBV will be needed to monitor progress.

Meningococcal A conjugate vaccine coverage in the meningitis belt of Africa from 2010 to 2021: a modelling study.

Background: As of the end of 2021, twenty-four countries in the African meningitis belt have rolled out mass campaigns of MenAfriVac®, a meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MACV) first introduced in 2010. Twelve have completed introduction of MACV into routine immunisation (RI) schedules. Although select post-campaign coverage data are published, no study currently comprehensively estimates MACV coverage from both routine and campaign sources in the meningitis belt across age, country, and time. Methods: In this modelling study, we assembled campaign data from the twenty-four countries that had introduced any immunisation activity during or before the year 2021 (Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, the Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Sudan, Sudan, Togo and Uganda) via WHO reports and RI data via systematic review. Next, we modelled RI coverage using Spatiotemporal Gaussian Process Regression. Then, we synthesized these estimates with campaign data into a cohort model, tracking coverage for each age cohort from age 1 to 29 years over time for each country. Findings: Coverage in high-risk locations amongst children aged 1-4 in 2021 was estimated to be highest in Togo with 96.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 92.0-99.0), followed by Niger with 87.2% (95% UI 85.3-89.0) and Burkina Faso, with 86.4% (95% UI 85.1-87.6). These countries had high coverage values driven by an initial successful mass immunisation campaign, followed by a catch-up campaign, followed by introduction of RI. Due to the influence of older mass vaccination campaigns, coverage proportions skewed higher in the 1-29 age group than the 1-4 group, with a median coverage of 82.9% in 2021 in the broader age group compared to 45.6% in the narrower age group. Interpretation: These estimates highlight where gaps in immunisation remain and emphasise the need for broader efforts to strengthen RI systems. This methodological framework can be applied to estimate coverage for any vaccine that has been delivered in both routine and supplemental immunisation activities. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Improved sub-seasonal forecasts to support preparedness action for meningitis outbreak in Africa.

West African countries are hit annually by meningitis outbreaks which occur during the dry season and are linked to atmospheric variability. This paper describes an innovative co-production process between the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD; forecast producer) and the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO; forecast user) to support awareness, preparedness and response actions for meningitis outbreaks. Using sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, this co-production enables ACMAD and WHO AFRO to build initiative that increases the production of useful climate services in the health sector. Temperature and relative humidity forecasts are combined with dust forecasts to operationalize a meningitis early warning system (MEWS) across the African meningitis belt with a two-week lead time. To prevent and control meningitis, the MEWS is produced from week 1 to 26 of the year. This study demonstrates that S2S forecasts have good skill at predicting dry and warm atmospheric conditions precede meningitis outbreaks. Vigilance levels objectively defined within the MEWS are consistent with reported cases of meningitis. Alongside developing a MEWS, the co-production process provided a framework for analysis of climate and environmental risks based on reanalysis data, meningitis burden, and health service assessment, to support the development of a qualitative roadmap of country prioritization for defeating meningitis by 2030 across the WHO African region. The roadmap has enabled the identification of countries most vulnerable to meningitis epidemics, and in the context of climate change, supports plans for preventing, preparing, and responding to meningitis outbreaks.

Future Directions for Meningitis Surveillance and Vaccine Evaluation in the Meningitis Belt of Sub-Saharan Africa.

In sub-Saharan Africa, bacterial meningitis remains a significant public health problem, especially in the countries of the meningitis belt, where Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A historically caused large-scale epidemics. In 2014, MenAfriNet was established as a consortium of partners supporting strategic implementation of case-based meningitis surveillance to monitor meningitis epidemiology and impact of meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV). MenAfriNet improved data quality through use of standardized tools, procedures, and laboratory diagnostics. MenAfriNet surveillance and study data provided evidence of ongoing MACV impact, characterized the burden of non-serogroup A meningococcal disease (including the emergence of a new epidemic clone of serogroup C), and documented the impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. New vaccines and schedules have been proposed for future implementation to address the remaining burden of meningitis. To support the goals of "Defeating Meningitis by 2030," MenAfriNet will continue to strengthen surveillance and support research and modeling to monitor the impact of these programs on meningitis burden in sub-Saharan Africa.