Development and validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19, and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, and to assess the incidence of AKI and KRT requirement. METHODS: This study is part of a multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. A total of 5212 adult COVID-19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. Variable selection was performed using generalised additive models (GAM), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. Accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: The median age of the model-derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47-70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalisation. The temporal validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in-hospital mortality. The geographic validation cohort had similar age and sex; however, this cohort had higher rates of ICU admission, AKI, need for KRT and in-hospital mortality. Four predictors of the need for KRT were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male sex, higher creatinine at hospital presentation and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC 0.929, 95% CI 0.918-0.939) and validation (temporal AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.911-0.941; geographic AUROC 0.819, 95% CI 0.792-0.845) cohorts and good overall performance (Brier score: 0.057, 0.056 and 0.122, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator ( https://www.mmcdscore.com/ ). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalised COVID-19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.

Hypothyroidism does not lead to worse prognosis in COVID-19: findings from the Brazilian COVID-19 registry.

BACKGROUND: It is not clear whether previous thyroid diseases influence the course and outcomes of COVID-19. METHODS: The study is a part of a multicentric cohort of patients with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from 37 hospitals. Matching for age, sex, number of comorbidities, and hospital was performed for the paired analysis. RESULTS: Of 7,762 patients with COVID-19, 526 had previously diagnosed hypothyroidism and 526 were matched controls. The median age was 70 years, and 68.3% were females. The prevalence of comorbidities was similar, except for coronary and chronic kidney diseases that were higher in the hypothyroidism group (p=0.015 and p=0.001). D-dimer levels were lower in patients with hypothyroid (p=0.037). In-hospital management was similar, but hospital length-of-stay (p=0.029) and mechanical ventilation requirement (p=0.006) were lower for patients with hypothyroidism. There was a trend of lower in-hospital mortality in patients with hypothyroidism (22.1% vs 27.0%; p=0.062). CONCLUSION: Patients with hypothyroidism had a lower requirement of mechanical ventilation and showed a trend of lower in-hospital mortality. Therefore, hypothyroidism does not seem to be associated with a worse prognosis.

Lung Ultrasound Can Predict the Clinical Course and Severity of COVID-19 Disease.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) compromises the lung in large numbers of people. The development of minimally invasive methods to determine the severity of pulmonary extension is desired. This study aimed to describe the characteristics of sequential lung ultrasound and to test the prognostic usefulness of this exam in a group of patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19. We prospectively evaluated patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection admitted to our hospital between April and August 2020. Bedside lung ultrasound exams were performed at three time points: at inclusion in the study, after 48 h and on the seventh day of follow-up. Lung ultrasound scores were quantified according to the aeration loss in each of eight zones scanned. Sixty-six participants were included: 42 (63.6%) in the intensive care unit and 24 (36.3%) in the ward. Lung ultrasound scores were higher in participants admitted to the intensive care unit than in those admitted to the ward at the time of inclusion (16 [13-17] vs. 10 [4-14], p < 0.001), after 48 h (15.5 [13-17] vs. 12.5 [8.2-14.7], p = 0.001) and on the seventh day (16 [14-17] vs. 7 [4.5-13.7], p < 0.001) respectively. Lung ultrasound score measured at the time of inclusion in the study was independently associated with the need for admission to the intensive care unit (odds ratio = 1.480; 95% confidence interval, 1.093-2.004; p = 0.011) adjusted by the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.