Prevalence of chronic chikungunya and associated risks factors in the French West Indies (La Martinique): A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging alphavirus that can cause chronic and potentially incapacitating rheumatic musculoskeletal disorders known as chronic chikungunya arthritis (CCA). We conducted a prospective cohort study of CHIKV-infected subjects during the 2013 chikungunya outbreak in Martinique. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of CCA at 12 months and to search for acute phase factors significantly associated with chronicity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 193 patients who tested positive for CHIKV RNA via qRT-PCR underwent clinical investigations in the acute phase (<21 days), and then 3, 6, and 12 months after inclusion. The Asian lineage was identified as the circulating genotype. A total of 167 participants were classified as either with or without CCA, and were analyzed using logistic regression models. The overall prevalence of CCA at 12 months was 52.1% (95%CI: 44.5-59.7). In univariate analysis, age (RD 9.62, 95% CI, 4.87;14.38, p<0.0001), female sex (RD 15.5, 95% CI, 1.03;30.0, p = 0.04), headache (RD 15.42, 95% CI, 0.65;30.18 p = 0.04), vertigo (RD 15.33, 95% CI, 1.47;29.19, p = 0.03), vomiting (RD 12.89, 95% CI, 1.54;24.24, p = 0.03), dyspnea (RD 13.53, 95% CI, 0.73;26.33, p = 0.04), intravenous rehydration (RD -16.12, 95% CI, -31.58; -0.66 p = 0.04) and urea (RD 0.66, 95% CI, 0.12;1.20, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the development of CCA. For the subpopulation with data on joint involvement in the acute phase, the risk factors significantly associated with CCA were at least one 1 enthesitis (RD 16.7, 95%CI, 2.8; 30.7, p = 0.02) and at least one tenosynovitis (RD 16.8, 95% CI, 1.4-32.2, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study conducted in Martinique confirms that CCA is a common complication of acute chikungunya disease. Our analysis emphasized the importance of age and female sex for CCA occurrence, and highlighted the aggravating role of dehydration during the acute phase. Early and adequate hydration were found to reduce the risk chronic chikungunya disorders. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01099852).

Assessing Zika Virus Transmission Within Households During an Outbreak in Martinique, 2015-2016.

Since 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large epidemics in the Americas. Households are natural targets for control interventions, but quantification of the contribution of household transmission to overall spread is needed to guide policy. We developed a modeling framework to evaluate this contribution and key epidemic features of the ZIKV epidemic in Martinique in 2015-2016 from the joint analysis of a household transmission study (n = 68 households), a study among symptomatic pregnant women (n = 281), and seroprevalence surveys of blood donors (n = 457). We estimated that the probability of mosquito-mediated within-household transmission (from an infected member to a susceptible one) was 21% (95% credible interval (CrI): 5, 51), and the overall probability of infection from outside the household (i.e., in the community) was 39% (95% CrI: 27, 50). Overall, 50% (95% CrI: 43, 58) of the population was infected, with 22% (95% CrI: 5, 46) of infections acquired in households and 40% (95% CrI: 23, 56) being asymptomatic. The probability of presenting with Zika-like symptoms due to another cause was 16% (95% CrI: 10, 23). This study characterized the contribution of household transmission in ZIKV epidemics, demonstrating the benefits of integrating multiple data sets to gain more insight into epidemic dynamics.