Biophysical model of coral population connectivity in the Arabian/Persian Gulf.

The coral reef ecosystems of the Arabian/Persian Gulf (the Gulf) are facing profound pressure from climate change (extreme temperatures) and anthropogenic (land-use and population-related) stressors. Increasing degradation at local and regional scales has already resulted in widespread coral cover reduction. Connectivity, the transport and exchange of larvae among geographically separated populations, plays an essential role in recovery and maintenance of biodiversity and resilience of coral reef populations. Here, an oceanographic model in 3-D high-resolution was used to simulate particle dispersion of "virtual larvae." We investigated the potential physical connectivity of coral reefs among different regions in the Gulf. Simulations reveal that basin-scale circulation is responsible for broader spatial dispersion of the larvae in the central region of the Gulf, and tidally-driven currents characterized the more localized connectivity pattern in regions along the shores in the Gulf's southern part. Results suggest predominant self-recruitment of reefs with highest source and sink ratios along the Bahrain and western Qatar coasts, followed by the south eastern Qatar and continental Abu Dhabi coast. The central sector of the Gulf is suggested as recruitment source in a stepping-stone dynamics. Recruitment intensity declined moving away from the Straits of Hormuz. Connectivity varied in models assuming passive versus active mode of larvae movement. This suggests that larval behaviour needs to be taken into consideration when establishing dispersion models, and establishing conservation strategies for these vulnerable ecosystems.

Freshwater budget in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf and exchanges at the Strait of Hormuz.

Excess evaporation within the Persian (also referred as the Arabian) Gulf induces an inverse-estuary circulation. Surface waters are imported, via the Strait of Hormuz, while saltier waters are exported in the deeper layers. Using output of a 1/12-Degree horizontal resolution ocean general circulation model, the spatial structure and time variability of the circulation and the exchanges of volume and salt through the Strait of Hormuz are investigated in detail. The model's circulation pattern in the Gulf is found to be in good agreement with observations and other studies based on numerical models. The mean export of salty waters in the bottom layer is of 0.26±0.05Sv (Sverdrup = 1.0 × 106 m3 s-1). The net freshwater import, the equivalent of the salt export divided by a reference salinity, done by the baroclinic circulation across that vertical section is decomposed in an overturning and a horizontal components, with mean values of 7.2±2.1 × 10-3 Sv and 5.0±1.7 × 10-3 Sv respectively. An important, novel finding of this work is that the horizontal component is confined to the deeper layers, mainly in the winter. It is also described for the first time that both components are correlated at the same level with the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Persian Gulf. The highest correlation (r2 = 0.59) of the total freshwater transport across 26°N with E-P over the Gulf is found with a one-month time lag, with E-P leading. The time series of freshwater import does not show any significant trend in the period from 1980 to 2015. Power spectra analysis shows that most of the energy is concentrated in the seasonal cycle. Some intraseasonal variability, likely related to the Shamal wind phenomenon, and possible impacts of El-Nino are also detected. These results suggest that the overturning and the horizontal components of freshwater exchange across the Strait of Hormuz are both driven by dynamic and thermodynamic processes inside the Persian Gulf.