A tracer model nowcast/forecast study of the Tampa Bay, Piney Point effluent plume: Rapid response to an environmental hazard.

An emergency discharge of nutrient-rich effluent from the defunct Piney Point fertilizer stack into Tampa Bay at Port Manatee occurred from 30 March-8 April 2021. This resulted in a pollutant plume that evolved over time and space across the entire bay, including its environmentally sensitive marine preserves, and out onto the adjacent continental shelf. As a rapid response to environmental concerns, the plume evolution was simulated using the high resolution, unstructured grid, Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) nowcast/forecast system, with an embedded tracer module that included realistic point discharge rates. Normalized tracer distributions were automatically updated each day, providing 1-day hindcasts and 3.5-day forecasts. Due to mixing and advection, tracer concentration was quickly reduced by two or more orders of magnitude as the plume spread out. Highest tracer concentrations hugged the southeastern Tampa Bay shoreline during the first week. Lower tracer concentrations were gradually advected to the western side of Tampa Bay, and the tracer was slowly flushed out of the bay to be transported primarily northward along the coast. The modeled plume evolution served as principal guidance for coordinating environmental monitoring by state, local and academic personnel. The model results also provide a basis for future multidisciplinary studies.

Karenia brevis bloom patterns on the west Florida shelf between 2003 and 2019: Integration of field and satellite observations.

Harmful algal blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis occur almost annually on the West Florida Shelf (WFS) of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. To date, however, comprehensive assessments of K. brevis bloom spatial extent and temporal occurrence are lacking due to limitations in the two primary bloom monitoring techniques: microscopy evaluation of field-collected water samples and satellite remote sensing of ocean color. This is despite community efforts in expanding sampling coverage statewide and developing remote sensing algorithms to interpret color changes of surface waters. In this work, an approach is developed to combine the strengths of both techniques to estimate mean bloom occurrence frequency and bloom intensity as well as bloom extent at weekly, bi-weekly, monthly, and annual intervals between 2003 and 2019. Here, due to technical constraints on ocean color remote sensing, a bloom is defined as waters with K. brevis concentrations greater than 1.5 × 105 cells L-1. While microscopy examination of surface water samples provides K. brevis cell concentrations to help delineate bloom locations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on Aqua (MODIS/A) images, the imagery provides far more synoptic and frequent observations to make the bloom characterization statistically meaningful. Such derived bloom statistics often show bloom patterns that are not always known previously or at the time of the event, and in some years, they also differ from those determined from microscopic taxonomy data alone. For example, in terms of bloom size, two major bloom periods are observed in 2005 - 2007 and 2014 - 2018, respectively, when annual cumulative bloom size exceeded ∼50,000 km2. While preliminary in nature, the approach and results from this work may represent a first step to integrate water sample analysis and satellite remote sensing towards an improved characterization of K. brevis blooms on the WFS.