RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the blockage of coronary arteries that leads to ischemic necrosis of the myocardium. Timely medical contact is critical for successful AMI treatment, and delays increase the risk of death for patients. Pre-hospital delay time (PDT) is a significant challenge for reducing treatment times, as identifying high-risk patients with AMI remains difficult. This study aims to construct a risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients and develop targeted strategies for effective and prompt care, ultimately reducing PDT and improving treatment outcomes. AIM: To construct a nomogram model for forecasting pre-hospital delay (PHD) likelihood in patients with AMI and to assess the precision of the nomogram model in predicting PHD risk. METHODS: A retrospective cohort design was employed to investigate predictive factors for PHD in patients with AMI diagnosed between January 2022 and September 2022. The study included 252 patients, with 180 randomly assigned to the development group and the remaining 72 to the validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Independent risk factors influencing PHD were identified in the development group, leading to the establishment of a nomogram model for predicting PHD in patients with AMI. The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the development and validation groups. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for PHD in patients with AMI included living alone, hyperlipidemia, age, diabetes mellitus, and digestive system diseases (P < 0.05). A nomogram model incorporating these five predictors accurately predicted PHD occurrence. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.716-0.858) and 0.770 (95% confidence interval: 0.660-0.879) in the development and validation groups, respectively, demonstrating the model's good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed no statistically significant disparity between the anticipated and observed incidence of PHD in both development and validation cohorts (P > 0.05), indicating satisfactory model calibration. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model, developed with independent risk factors, accurately forecasts PHD likelihood in AMI individuals, enabling efficient identification of PHD risk in these patients.
RESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to create a predictive model for hyperuricemia (HUA) in patients diagnosed with hypertension and evaluate its predictive accuracy. METHODS: Employing a retrospective cohort design, this study investigated HUA incidence and clinical data among 228 patients with essential hypertension selected from the Department of Cardiology at a tertiary A-level hospital in Anhui Province, China, between January 2018 and June 2021. The patients were divided randomly into a training group (168 cases) and a validation group (60 cases) at a 7:3 ratio. The training group underwent univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors for HUA. Additionally, an R software-generated nomogram model estimated HUA risk in hypertensive patients. The validation group assessed the nomogram model's discriminatory power and calibration using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: The study found a 29.39% prevalence of HUA among the 228 participants. Logistic regression analyses identified age, body mass index, and concomitant coronary heart disease as independent HUA risk factors (odds ratio [OR] > 1 and P < 0.05). Conversely, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol emerged as an independent protective factor against HUA in hypertensive patients (OR < 1 and P < 0.05). Using these factors, a nomogram model was constructed to assess HUA risk, with an AUC of 0.873 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.818-0.928) in the training group and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.735-0.946) in the validation group, indicating a strong discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed no significant deviation between predicted and actual HUA frequency in both groups (χ2 = 5.980, 9.780, P = 0.649, 0.281), supporting the nomogram's reliability. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram model, utilizing independent risk factors for HUA in hypertensive patients, exhibits strong discrimination and calibration. It holds promise as a valuable tool for cardiovascular professionals in clinical decision-making.
