FMD vaccine allocation and surveillance resourcing options for a potential Australian incursion.

Australian Animal Disease Spread (AADIS) epidemiological simulation modelling of potential foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the state of Victoria, Australia examined the targeted use of limited vaccine supplies in combination with varying surveillance resources. Updated, detailed estimates of government response costs were prepared based on state level data inputs of required and available resources. Measures of outbreak spread such as duration and numbers of animals removed through depopulation of infected and vaccinated herds from the epidemiological modelling were compared to summed government response costs. This comparison illustrated the trade-offs between targeted control strategies combining vaccination-to-remove and varying surveillance capacities and their corresponding costs. For this intensive cattle and sheep producing region: (1) Targeting vaccination toward intensive production areas or toward specialized cattle operations had outbreak control and response cost advantages similar to vaccination of all species. The median duration was reduced by 27% and response costs by 11%. (2) Adding to the pool of outbreak surveillance resources available further decreased outbreak duration and outbreak response costs. The median duration was reduced by an additional 13% and response costs declined by an additional 8%. (3) Pooling of vaccine resources overcame the very early binding constraints under proportional allocation of vaccines to individual states with similar reductions in outbreak duration to those with additional surveillance resources. However, government costs rose substantially by over 40% and introduced additional risk of a negative consumer response. Increased knowledge of the outbreak situation obtained from more surveillance led to better-informed vaccination deployment decisions in the short timeframe they needed to be made.

Economic benefits of implementing trading zones for Australian livestock disease outbreaks of limited duration.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks. DESIGN: The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. RESULTS: Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate. CONCLUSION: Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.

Increasing response rates in telephone surveys: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Sampling frames and mode of contact and administration of questionnaires are important factors contributing to response rates and selection bias in population-based research. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate whether contact by mail before contact by telephone increases response rate, and to assess the concurrent validity of telephone surveys for collecting health research and service data. METHODS: Two thousand households were randomly selected from electronic white pages. Half were randomly allocated to receive or not to receive an explanatory letter before telephone contact. Interviewers were blinded to whether a household received a letter. Respondents aged 18 years or over were randomly selected from within each household using a Kish grid and interviewed by telephone. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 68 per cent [confidence interval (CI) 66-70]. The response rate of those who received the letter was 76 per cent (CI 73-79), and of those who did not receive the letter was 60 per cent (CI 56-63). Use of the Kish grid to select randomly a respondent decreased the response rate by less than 10 per cent. The internal validity of the data was as follows: in a 10 per cent sub-sample, the Kish grid had been correctly applied in 93 per cent of households, and in 99 per cent of households the exclusion criteria had been correctly adhered to. The external validity was as follows: comparisons with data obtained from the same reference population using similar instruments administered face-to-face revealed no meaningful or significant differences in population estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Mail-out before telephone contact greatly increases response rates at low cost. Telephone surveys can yield valid, useful data for health research and service evaluation.