Long-term responses of Icelandic Arctic foxes to changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

The long-term dynamics of predator populations may be driven by fluctuations in resource availability and reflect ecosystem changes such as those induced by climate change. The Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population has known major fluctuations in size since the 1950s. Using stable isotopes analysis of bone collagen over a long-time series (1979-2018), we aimed at identifying the main resources used by Icelandic Arctic foxes during periods of growth and decline to assess if the variations in their population size are linked to fluctuations in the availability of resources. We hypothesized that (1) the decline in Seabird abundance was responsible for the decrease in the fox population; and (2) that the growth in the fox population combined to fluctuations in main resources would lead to an increase in intra-specific competition, ultimately leading to variations in their isotopic niches at the population scale. The isotopic composition of Arctic fox bones differed clearly between inland and coast. Stable isotopes mixing models suggested that marine resources and rock ptarmigans were the most important food source and highlighted a rather stable diet in coastal habitats compared to inland habitats where more fluctuations in dietary composition were observed. Coastal foxes had a broader niche than inland foxes, and there was more variation in niche size in the inland habitat. Our results tend to confirm that a general decline in seabird populations drove the decline in Arctic foxes, especially in coastal habitats. For the inland foxes, our results suggest that the lack of marine resources might have led to an increased use of ptarmigans especially during the most recent period.

Dietary variation in Icelandic arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) over a period of 30 years assessed through stable isotopes.

Identifying resources driving long-term trends in predators is important to understand ecosystem changes and to manage populations in the context of conservation or control. The arctic fox population in Iceland has increased steadily over a period of 30 years, an increase that has been attributed to an overall increase in food abundance. We hypothesized that increasing populations of geese or seabirds were driving this growth. We analyzed stable isotopes in a long-term series of collagen samples to determine the role of these different resources. The isotopic signatures of arctic foxes differed consistently between coastal and inland habitats. While δ15N displayed a non-linear change over time with a slight increase in the first part of the period followed by a decline in both habitats, δ13C was stable. Stable isotope mixing models suggested that marine resources and rock ptarmigan were the most important dietary sources, with marine resources dominating in coastal habitats and rock ptarmigan being more important inland. Our results suggest that seabirds may have been driving the arctic fox population increase. The rapidly increasing populations of breeding geese seem to have played a minor role in arctic fox population growth, as rock ptarmigan was the most important terrestrial resource despite a considerable decrease in their abundance during recent decades. This study shows that a long-term population trend in a generalist predator may have occurred without a pronounced change in main dietary resources, despite ongoing structural changes in the food web, where one species of herbivorous birds increased and another decreased.