Risk assessment models for potential use in the emergency department have lower predictive ability in older patients compared to the middle-aged for short-term mortality - a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Older patients is a complex group at increased risk of adverse outcomes compared to younger patients, which should be considered in the risk assessment performed in emergency departments. We evaluated whether the predictive ability of different risk assessment models for acutely admitted patients is affected by age. METHODS: Cohort study of middle-aged and older patients. We investigated the accuracy in discriminating between survivors and non-survivors within 7 days of different risk assessment models; a traditional triage algorithm, a triage algorithm with clinical assessment, vital signs, routine biomarkers, and the prognostic biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). RESULTS: The cohort included 22,653 (53.2%) middle-aged patients (age 40-69 years), and 19,889 (46.8%) older patients (aged 70+ years). Death within 7 days occurred in 139 patients (0.6%) in middle-aged patients and 596 (3.0%) of the older patients. The models based on vital signs and routine biomarkers had the highest area under the curve (AUC), and both were significantly better at discriminating 7-day mortality in middle-aged patients compared to older patients; AUC (95% CI): 0.88 (0.84-0.91), 0.75 (0.72-0.78), P < 0.01, and 0.86 (0.82-0.90), 0.76 (0.73-0.78), P < 0.001. In a subgroup of the total cohort (6.400 patients, 15.0%), the suPAR level was available. suPAR had the highest AUC of all individual predictors with no significant difference between the age groups, but further research in this biomarker is required before it can be used. CONCLUSION: The predictive value was lower in older patients compared to middle-aged patients for all investigated models. Vital signs or routine biomarkers constituted the best models for predicting 7-day mortality and were better than the traditional triage model. Hence, the current risk assessment for short-term mortality can be strengthened, but modifications for age should be considered when constructing new risk assessment models in the emergency department.

Risk of post-discharge fall-related injuries among adult patients with syncope: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Syncope could be related to high risk of falls and injury in adults, but documentation is sparse. We examined the association between syncope and subsequent fall-related injuries in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: By cross-linkage of nationwide registers, all residents ≥18 years with a first-time diagnosis of syncope were identified between 1997-2012. Syncope patients were matched 1:1 with individuals from the general population. The absolute one-year risk of fall-related injuries, defined as fractures and traumatic head injuries requiring hospitalization, was calculated using Aalen-Johansen estimator. Ratios of the absolute one-year risk of fall-related injuries (ARR) were assessed by absolute risk regression analysis. RESULTS: We identified 125,763 patients with syncope: median age 65 years (interquartile range 46-78). At one year, follow-up was complete for 99.8% where a total of 8394 (6.7%) patients sustained a fall-related injury requiring hospitalization, of which 1606 (19.1%) suffered hip fracture. In the reference group, 4049 (3.2%) persons had a fall-related injury. The one-year ARR of a fall-related injury was 1.79 (95% confidence interval 1.72-1.87, P<0.001) in patients with syncope compared with the reference group; however, increased ARR was not exclusively in older patients. Factors independently associated with increased ARR of fall-related injuries in the syncope population were: injury in past 12 months, 2.39 (2.26-2.53, P<0.001), injury in relation to the syncope episode, 1.62 (1.49-1.77, P<0.001), and depression, 1.37 (1.30-1.45, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Patients with syncope were at 80% increased risk of severe fall-related injuries within the year following discharge. Notably, increased risk was not exclusively in older patients.

Syncope and Its Impact on Occupational Accidents and Employment: A Danish Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: First-time syncopal episodes usually occur in adults of working age, but their impact on occupational safety and employment remains unknown. We examined the associations of syncope with occupational accidents and termination of employment. METHODS AND RESULTS: Through linkage of Danish population-based registers, we included all residents 18 to 64 years from 2008 to 2012. Among 3 410 148 eligible individuals, 21 729 with a first-time diagnosis of syncope were identified, with a median age 48.4 years (first to third quartiles, 33.0-59.5), and 10 757 (49.5%) employed at time of the syncope event. Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (first to third quartiles, 2.0-4.5), 622 people with syncope had an occupational accident requiring hospitalization (2.1/100 person-years). In multiple Poisson regression analysis, the incidence rate ratio in the employed syncope population was higher than in the employed general population (1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.55) and more pronounced in people with recurrences (2.02; 95% CI, 1.47-2.78). The 2-year risk of termination of employment was 31.3% (95% CI, 30.4%-32.3%), which was twice the risk of the reference population (15.2%; 95% CI, 14.7%-15.7%), using the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Factors associated with termination of employment were age <40 years (incidence rate ratio, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.37-1.59), cardiovascular disease (1.20; 95% CI, 1.06-1.36), depression (1.72; 95% CI, 1.55-1.90), and low educational level (2.61; 95% CI, 2.34-2.91). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort, syncope was associated with a 1.4-fold higher risk of occupational accidents and a 2-fold higher risk of termination of employment compared with the employed general population.