The impact of rainfall events on dissolved oxygen concentrations in a subtropical urban reservoir.

Understanding controls of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in reservoirs is important as they are important for fisheries and a significant driver of greenhouse gas emissions. The latter is of global significance as IPCC inventories now require greenhouse gas emissions from artificial reservoirs to be included. Declines in dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in lakes and reservoirs have been linked to climate change and human activity. However, these effects can vary widely in any given region under various meteorological conditions. There is a clear need to know how changes in weather patterns affect DO in reservoirs by changing internal processes. Based on a six-year (2016-2021) high-frequency (twice a week) dataset from a shallow urban reservoir (Xinglinwan Reservoir) in subtropical China, the long-term (six years) and short-term (8-72-h) drivers of DO concentrations in surface waters were evaluated. Over the past six years, the concentration of DO has gradually decreased in the reservoir from 2016 to 2021. Multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models were developed to identify the key factors explaining variability in DO and partial least squares path models (PLS-PM) were used to explore the short-term relationships between DO and environmental variables in rainy and dry (non-rain) periods, separately. We identified three key drivers operating on different time scales. First, the long-term decline of DO in Xinglinwan Reservoir from 2016 to 2021 was best explained by anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Second, rainy periods prior to sampling reduced DO concentrations indirectly by affecting the algal biomass and nutrient concentrations. This effect varied in complexity with the duration of the rainfall period. Third, water temperature best explained DO concentrations during dry periods, while wind reduced DO by reducing algal biomass. We conclude that anthropogenic nutrient and organic matter inputs drive long-term oxygen declines in urban subtropical reservoirs, while meteorological factors determine short-term variability in DO concentrations.

Lake browning counteracts cyanobacteria responses to nutrients: Evidence from phytoplankton dynamics in large enclosure experiments and comprehensive observational data.

Lakes worldwide are affected by multiple stressors, including climate change. This includes massive loading of both nutrients and humic substances to lakes during extreme weather events, which also may disrupt thermal stratification. Since multi-stressor effects vary widely in space and time, their combined ecological impacts remain difficult to predict. Therefore, we combined two consecutive large enclosure experiments with a comprehensive time-series and a broad-scale field survey to unravel the combined effects of storm-induced lake browning, nutrient enrichment and deep mixing on phytoplankton communities, focusing particularly on potentially toxic cyanobacterial blooms. The experimental results revealed that browning counteracted the stimulating effect of nutrients on phytoplankton and caused a shift from phototrophic cyanobacteria and chlorophytes to mixotrophic cryptophytes. Light limitation by browning was identified as the likely mechanism underlying this response. Deep-mixing increased microcystin concentrations in clear nutrient-enriched enclosures, caused by upwelling of a metalimnetic Planktothrix rubescens population. Monitoring data from a 25-year time-series of a eutrophic lake and from 588 northern European lakes corroborate the experimental results: Browning suppresses cyanobacteria in terms of both biovolume and proportion of the total phytoplankton biovolume. Both the experimental and observational results indicated a lower total phosphorus threshold for cyanobacterial bloom development in clearwater lakes (10-20 µg P L-1 ) than in humic lakes (20-30 µg P L-1 ). This finding provides management guidance for lakes receiving more nutrients and humic substances due to more frequent extreme weather events.

The benefits of restoring urban lakes in the tropics.

Lake restoration in developing economies, particularly in the tropics, is a major challenge given the severe levels of pollution from untreated wastewater and the warm climate conducive to microbial and algal growth. Restoration goals are often ill-defined or unachievable. Here we describe the successes that can be achieved through a control, compared with intervention case study of the two urban lakes in Bengaluru, India, one of the world's largest and fastest growing mega-cities. The unrestored control, Bellandur Lake, was severely polluted by 231 million litres per day (MLD) of untreated wastewater. The restoration site, Jakkur Lake, receives 10 MLD of treated wastewater and also receives some tertiary treatment by circulating the effluent through a constructed wetland before it enters the lake. The water quality of Bellandur Lake can only be described as extremely bad. Organic pollution levels in the main inflow were high (BOD5 of 199 mg/l, faecal coliforms 6.9 Log MPN/100 ml, total suspended solids (TSS) of 285 mg/l) leading to the complete deoxygenation of lake even at the surface. The levels exceeded use-base standards for bathing water and fisheries. The high levels of organic pollution and low oxygen conditions also led to extreme levels of methane emissions that occasionally led to the lake surface catching fire. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake were extremely high (47 mg/l and 6.3 mg/l) respectively with low Secchi depth (SD). Despite the high nutrient levels, very little phytoplankton growth occurred (chlorophyll-a of 0 mg/l), most likely due to the high TSS loads which restricted light availability. In comparison, the wastewater treatment and wetland at Jakkur Lake markedly reduced organic pollution of the main inflow (BOD5 of 32 mg/l, faecal coliforms 4.1 Log MPN/100 ml, TSS of 48 mg/l). Levels of coliforms in the lake were above the standards for bathing waters. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the lake reduced (10.5 mg/l, 2.4 mg/l) but still classify the lake as extremely hypereutrophic. The lower TSS levels did, however, enable dense phytoplankton blooms to develop (max chlorophyll-a of 600 µg/l) which are in part responsible for the higher levels of dissolved oxygen in the lake water, albeit and as expected with large diurnal fluctuations. The comparison highlights the benefits that standard wastewater treatment provides to restore urban tropical lakes in context of rapidly urbanising catchments, and even though Jakkur Lake is by no means fully restored, it sustains water quality that allow propagation of fisheries and shore-based recreation. It also greatly contributes to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Further restoration measures are likely needed for urban tropical lakes, particularly to tackle pollutant loads in monsoon periods, but restoring community pride in the uses of a lake is an important milestone of the restoration efforts.

Short-term rainfall limits cyanobacterial bloom formation in a shallow eutrophic subtropical urban reservoir in warm season.

The global increase in dominance of toxic blooms of cyanobacteria has severely impacted aquatic ecosystems and threatened human health for decades. Although it has been shown that high levels of rainfall may inhibit the growth of bloom-forming cyanobacteria, it is still unclear how cyanobacteria respond to short-term rainfall events. Based on five-year (2016-2020) high-frequency (half-week) sampling data from a shallow eutrophic urban reservoir in subtropical China, we explored the short-term effects of rainfall events on cyanobacterial biomass (CBB) by constructing generalized additive models of CBB in rainy periods during warm (April to September) and cool (December and January) months, respectively. We find evidence in support of the hypotheses that short-term rainfall events significantly reduce CBB in warm months, but the opposite response was observed in the cool months. We also highlight a difference in the factors explaining CBB decreases in warm months (precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, dissolved oxygen and total phosphorus) compared with factors explaining the response of CBB in cool months (sunshine hours, pH and total carbon). In particular, meteorological factors (precipitation, wind speed and sunlight) might drive changes in water temperature and hydro-dynamics of the reservoir, thereby causing a rapid reduction of CBB after rainfall events in warm months. This varying response of cyanobacteria to short-term rainfall events in the shallow eutrophic subtropical reservoir may also be expected in temperate or cool lakes as climate change effects become stronger.

Phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundances in mid-21st century lakes depend strongly on future land use and climate projections.

Land use and climate change are anticipated to affect phytoplankton of lakes worldwide. The effects will depend on the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes and lake sensitivity to these factors. We used random forests fit with long-term (1971-2016) phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance time series, climate observations (1971-2016), and upstream catchment land use (global Clumondo models for the year 2000) data from 14 European and 15 North American lakes basins. We projected future phytoplankton and cyanobacteria abundance in the 29 focal lake basins and 1567 lakes across focal regions based on three land use (sustainability, middle of the road, and regional rivalry) and two climate (RCP 2.6 and 8.5) scenarios to mid-21st century. On average, lakes are expected to have higher phytoplankton and cyanobacteria due to increases in both urban land use and temperature, and decreases in forest habitat. However, the relative importance of land use and climate effects varied substantially among regions and lakes. Accounting for land use and climate changes in a combined way based on extensive data allowed us to identify urbanization as the major driver of phytoplankton development in lakes located in urban areas, and climate as major driver in lakes located in remote areas where past and future land use changes were minimal. For approximately one-third of the studied lakes, both drivers were relatively important. The results of this large scale study suggest the best approaches for mitigating the effects of human activity on lake phytoplankton and cyanobacteria will depend strongly on lake sensitivity to long-term change and the magnitude of projected land use and climate changes at a given location. Our quantitative analyses suggest local management measures should focus on retaining nutrients in urban landscapes to prevent nutrient pollution from exacerbating ongoing changes to lake ecosystems from climate change.

Greenhouse gas budgets of severely polluted urban lakes in India.

Inland waters are important sources of greenhouse gases and emissions from polluted subtropical systems may be contributing to the observed global increase in atmospheric methane concentrations. Here we detail a scoping study where dissolved concentrations of greenhouse gases methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were measured in two contrasting urban lakes in Bangalore (Bengaluru), Karnataka, India, from June 2018 to February 2020. Bellandur Lake is a severely polluted system whilst Jakkur Lake has been subject to partial restoration via treatment of organic matter inputs. Methane concentrations in Bellandur Lake were three orders of magnitude higher than in Jakkur Lake, with a mean concentration of 3.02 ± 1.57 mg CH4-C L-1 compared to 1.72 ± 1.22 µg CH4-C L-1. At Bellandur Lake, dissolved CO2 concentrations were of the same order of magnitude as for CH4, whereas at Jakkur Lake dissolved CO2 concentrations were two orders of magnitude greater than for CH4. Concentrations of N2O were negligible in both lakes. Extrapolating our data to estimate greenhouse gas fluxes, mean daily methane fluxes from Bellandur Lake were consistently in excess of 1000 mg CH4 m2 d-1, rendering the lake a source of GHGs to the order of 148,350 ± 21,790 ton yr-1 CO2-e yr-1, compared to 100 ± 37 ton CO2-e yr-1 from Jakkur Lake, with CH4 contributing primarily to this difference. We propose that the contribution of severely polluted urban lakes to global CH4 production warrants further investigation, particularly as our evidence suggests that standard secondary wastewater treatment to support restoration of these systems has the potential to significantly reduce CH4 emissions.

Making waves. Bridging theory and practice towards multiple stressor management in freshwater ecosystems.

Despite advances in conceptual understanding, single-stressor abatement approaches remain common in the management of fresh waters, even though they can produce unexpected ecological responses when multiple stressors interact. Here we identify limitations restricting the development of multiple-stressor management strategies and address these, bridging theory and practice, within a novel empirical framework. Those critical limitations include that (i) monitoring schemes fall short of accounting for theory on relationships between multiple-stressor interactions and ecological responses, (ii) current empirical modelling approaches neglect the prevalence and intensity of multiple-stressor interactions, and (iii) mechanisms of stressor interactions are often poorly understood. We offer practical recommendations for the use of empirical models and experiments to predict the effects of freshwater degradation in response to changes in multiple stressors, demonstrating this approach in a case study. Drawing on our framework, we offer practical recommendations to support the development of effective management strategies in three general multiple-stressor scenarios.

Integrating Inland and Coastal Water Quality Data for Actionable Knowledge.

Water quality measures for inland and coastal waters are available as discrete samples from professional and volunteer water quality monitoring programs and higher-frequency, near-continuous data from automated in situ sensors. Water quality parameters also are estimated from model outputs and remote sensing. The integration of these data, via data assimilation, can result in a more holistic characterization of these highly dynamic ecosystems, and consequently improve water resource management. It is becoming common to see combinations of these data applied to answer relevant scientific questions. Yet, methods for scaling water quality data across regions and beyond, to provide actionable knowledge for stakeholders, have emerged only recently, particularly with the availability of satellite data now providing global coverage at high spatial resolution. In this paper, data sources and existing data integration frameworks are reviewed to give an overview of the present status and identify the gaps in existing frameworks. We propose an integration framework to provide information to user communities through the the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) AquaWatch Initiative. This aims to develop and build the global capacity and utility of water quality data, products, and information to support equitable and inclusive access for water resource management, policy and decision making.

Ecological health and water quality of village ponds in the subtropics limiting their use for water supply and groundwater recharge.

Ponds are a typical feature of many villages in the subtropics, and have been widely used as important sources of water for agriculture, aquaculture and groundwater recharge, as well as enhancing village resilience to floods and drought. Currently many village ponds are in a very poor state and in dire need of rejuvenation. This paper assesses the current water quality status and ecological health of twelve sub-tropical village ponds, situated in western Uttar Pradesh, India. This assessment is used to evaluate their wastewater treatment needs in relation to potential village uses of the water. Physico-chemical (Secchi depth, Total phosphorus and Total nitrogen) and biological (Phytoplankton chlorophyll-a) indicators highlight hypertrophic conditions in all the ponds. The study indicates that the status of village ponds requires significant investments in wastewater treatment to restore their use for many purposes, including aquaculture, although some may still be acceptable for irrigation purposes, as long as pathogenic bacteria are not abundant. We propose increased implementation of decentralised systems for wastewater treatment, such as septic tanks and constructed wetlands, to reduce the organic and nutrient loads entering village ponds and allow their use for a wider range of purposes.

Nutrient and microbial water quality of the upper Ganga River, India: identification of pollution sources.

The Ganga River is facing mounting environmental pressures due to rapidly increasing human population, urbanisation, industrialisation and agricultural intensification, resulting in worsening water quality, ecological status and impacts on human health. A combined inorganic chemical, algal and bacterial survey (using flow cytometry and 16S rRNA gene sequencing) along the upper and middle Ganga (from the Himalayan foothills to Kanpur) was conducted under pre-monsoon conditions. The upper Ganga had total phosphorus (TP) and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations of less than 100 µg l-1 and 1.0 mg l-1, but water quality declined at Kannauj (TP = 420 µg l-1) due to major nutrient pollution inputs from human-impacted tributaries (principally the Ramganga and Kali Rivers). The phosphorus and nitrogen loads in these two tributaries and the Yamuna were dominated by soluble reactive phosphorus and ammonium, with high bacterial loads and large numbers of taxa indicative of pathogen and faecal organisms, strongly suggesting sewage pollution sources. The high nutrient concentrations, low flows, warm water and high solar radiation resulted in major algal blooms in the Kali and Ramganga, which greatly impacted the Ganga. Microbial communities were dominated by members of the Phylum Proteobacteria, Bacteriodetes and Cyanobacteria, with communities showing a clear upstream to downstream transition in community composition. To improve the water quality of the middle Ganga, and decrease ecological and human health risks, future mitigation must reduce urban wastewater inputs in the urbanised tributaries of the Ramganga, Kali and Yamuna Rivers.

Impacts of multiple stressors on freshwater biota across spatial scales and ecosystems.

Climate and land-use change drive a suite of stressors that shape ecosystems and interact to yield complex ecological responses (that is, additive, antagonistic and synergistic effects). We know little about the spatial scales relevant for the outcomes of such interactions and little about effect sizes. These knowledge gaps need to be filled to underpin future land management decisions or climate mitigation interventions for protecting and restoring freshwater ecosystems. This study combines data across scales from 33 mesocosm experiments with those from 14 river basins and 22 cross-basin studies in Europe, producing 174 combinations of paired-stressor effects on a biological response variable. Generalized linear models showed that only one of the two stressors had a significant effect in 39% of the analysed cases, 28% of the paired-stressor combinations resulted in additive effects and 33% resulted in interactive (antagonistic, synergistic, opposing or reversal) effects. For lakes, the frequencies of additive and interactive effects were similar for all spatial scales addressed, while for rivers these frequencies increased with scale. Nutrient enrichment was the overriding stressor for lakes, with effects generally exceeding those of secondary stressors. For rivers, the effects of nutrient enrichment were dependent on the specific stressor combination and biological response variable. These results vindicate the traditional focus of lake restoration and management on nutrient stress, while highlighting that river management requires more bespoke management solutions.

Capacity challenges in water quality monitoring: understanding the role of human development.

Monitoring the qualitative status of freshwaters is an important goal of the international community, as stated in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDGs) indicator 6.3.2 on good ambient water quality. Monitoring data are, however, lacking in many countries, allegedly because of capacity challenges of less-developed countries. So far, however, the relationship between human development and capacity challenges for water quality monitoring have not been analysed systematically. This hinders the implementation of fine-tuned capacity development programmes for water quality monitoring. Against this background, this study takes a global perspective in analysing the link between human development and the capacity challenges countries face in their national water quality monitoring programmes. The analysis is based on the latest data on the human development index and an international online survey amongst experts from science and practice. Results provide evidence of a negative relationship between human development and the capacity challenges to meet SDG 6.3.2 monitoring requirements. This negative relationship increases along the course of the monitoring process, from defining the enabling environment, choosing parameters for the collection of field data, to the analytics and analysis of five commonly used parameters (DO, EC, pH, TP and TN). Our assessment can be used to help practitioners improve technical capacity development activities and to identify and target investment in capacity development for monitoring.

Storm impacts on phytoplankton community dynamics in lakes.

In many regions across the globe, extreme weather events such as storms have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration due to climate change. Ecological theory predicts that such extreme events should have large impacts on ecosystem structure and function. High winds and precipitation associated with storms can affect lakes via short-term runoff events from watersheds and physical mixing of the water column. In addition, lakes connected to rivers and streams will also experience flushing due to high flow rates. Although we have a well-developed understanding of how wind and precipitation events can alter lake physical processes and some aspects of biogeochemical cycling, our mechanistic understanding of the emergent responses of phytoplankton communities is poor. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis that identifies how storms interact with lake and watershed attributes and their antecedent conditions to generate changes in lake physical and chemical environments. Such changes can restructure phytoplankton communities and their dynamics, as well as result in altered ecological function (e.g., carbon, nutrient and energy cycling) in the short- and long-term. We summarize the current understanding of storm-induced phytoplankton dynamics, identify knowledge gaps with a systematic review of the literature, and suggest future research directions across a gradient of lake types and environmental conditions.

Response of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton abundance to warming, extreme rainfall events and nutrient enrichment.

Cyanobacterial blooms are an increasing threat to water quality and global water security caused by the nutrient enrichment of freshwaters. There is also a broad consensus that blooms are increasing with global warming, but the impacts of other concomitant environmental changes, such as an increase in extreme rainfall events, may affect this response. One of the potential effects of high rainfall events on phytoplankton communities is greater loss of biomass through hydraulic flushing. Here we used a shallow lake mesocosm experiment to test the combined effects of: warming (ambient vs. +4°C increase), high rainfall (flushing) events (no events vs. seasonal events) and nutrient loading (eutrophic vs. hypertrophic) on total phytoplankton chlorophyll-a and cyanobacterial abundance and composition. Our hypotheses were that: (a) total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial abundance would be higher in heated mesocosms; (b) the stimulatory effects of warming on cyanobacterial abundance would be enhanced in higher nutrient mesocosms, resulting in a synergistic interaction; (c) the recovery of biomass from flushing induced losses would be quicker in heated and nutrient-enriched treatments, and during the growing season. The results supported the first and, in part, the third hypotheses: total phytoplankton and cyanobacterial abundance increased in heated mesocosms with an increase in common bloom-forming taxa-Microcystis spp. and Dolichospermum spp. Recovery from flushing was slowest in the winter, but unaffected by warming or higher nutrient loading. Contrary to the second hypothesis, an antagonistic interaction between warming and nutrient enrichment was detected for both cyanobacteria and chlorophyll-a demonstrating that ecological surprises can occur, dependent on the environmental context. While this study highlights the clear need to mitigate against global warming, oversimplification of global change effects on cyanobacteria should be avoided; stressor gradients and seasonal effects should be considered as important factors shaping the response.

Protecting and restoring Europe's waters: An analysis of the future development needs of the Water Framework Directive.

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a pioneering piece of legislation that aims to protect and enhance aquatic ecosystems and promote sustainable water use across Europe. There is growing concern that the objective of good status, or higher, in all EU waters by 2027 is a long way from being achieved in many countries. Through questionnaire analysis of almost 100 experts, we provide recommendations to enhance WFD monitoring and assessment systems, improve programmes of measures and further integrate with other sectoral policies. Our analysis highlights that there is great potential to enhance assessment schemes through strategic design of monitoring networks and innovation, such as earth observation. New diagnostic tools that use existing WFD monitoring data, but incorporate novel statistical and trait-based approaches could be used more widely to diagnose the cause of deterioration under conditions of multiple pressures and deliver a hierarchy of solutions for more evidence-driven decisions in river basin management. There is also a growing recognition that measures undertaken in river basin management should deliver multiple benefits across sectors, such as reduced flood risk, and there needs to be robust demonstration studies that evaluate these. Continued efforts in 'mainstreaming' water policy into other policy sectors is clearly needed to deliver wider success with WFD goals, particularly with agricultural policy. Other key policy areas where a need for stronger integration with water policy was recognised included urban planning (waste water treatment), flooding, climate and energy (hydropower). Having a deadline for attaining the policy objective of good status is important, but even more essential is to have a permanent framework for river basin management that addresses the delays in implementation of measures. This requires a long-term perspective, far beyond the current deadline of 2027.

Effects of multiple stressors on cyanobacteria abundance vary with lake type.

Blooms of cyanobacteria are a current threat to global water security that is expected to increase in the future because of increasing nutrient enrichment, increasing temperature and extreme precipitation in combination with prolonged drought. However, the responses to multiple stressors, such as those above, are often complex and there is contradictory evidence as to how they may interact. Here we used broad scale data from 494 lakes in central and northern Europe, to assess how cyanobacteria respond to nutrients (phosphorus), temperature and water retention time in different types of lakes. Eight lake types were examined based on factorial combinations of major factors that determine phytoplankton composition and sensitivity to nutrients: alkalinity (low and medium-high), colour (clear and humic) and mixing intensity (polymictic and stratified). In line with expectations, cyanobacteria increased with temperature and retention time in five of the eight lake types. Temperature effects were greatest in lake types situated at higher latitudes, suggesting that lakes currently not at risk could be affected by warming in the future. However, the sensitivity of cyanobacteria to temperature, retention time and phosphorus varied among lake types highlighting the complex responses of lakes to multiple stressors. For example, in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, humic lakes cyanobacteria biovolume was positively explained by retention time and a synergy between TP and temperature, while in polymictic, medium-high alkalinity, clear lakes only retention time was identified as an explanatory variable. These results show that, although climate change will need to be accounted for when managing the risk of cyanobacteria in lakes, a "one-size fits-all" approach is not appropriate. When forecasting the response of cyanobacteria to future environmental change, including changes caused by climate and local management, it will be important to take this differential sensitivity of lakes into account.

Practical application of spatial ecosystem service models to aid decision support.

Ecosystem service (ES) spatial modelling is a key component of the integrated assessments designed to support policies and management practices aiming at environmental sustainability. ESTIMAP ("Ecosystem Service Mapping Tool") is a collection of spatially explicit models, originally developed to support policies at a European scale. We based our analysis on 10 case studies, and 3 ES models. Each case study applied at least one model at a local scale. We analyzed the applications with respect to: the adaptation process; the "precision differential" which we define as the variation generated in the model between the degree of spatial variation within the spatial distribution of ES and what the model captures; the stakeholders' opinions on the usefulness of models. We propose a protocol for adapting ESTIMAP to the local conditions. We present the precision differential as a means of assessing how the type of model and level of model adaptation generate variation among model outputs. We then present the opinion of stakeholders; that in general considered the approach useful for stimulating discussion and supporting communication. Major constraints identified were the lack of spatial data with sufficient level of detail, and the level of expertise needed to set up and compute the models.

Ecological resilience in lakes and the conjunction fallacy.

There is a pressing need to apply stability and resilience theory to environmental management to restore degraded ecosystems effectively and to mitigate the effects of impending environmental change. Lakes represent excellent model case studies in this respect and have been used widely to demonstrate theories of ecological stability and resilience that are needed to underpin preventative management approaches. However, we argue that this approach is not yet fully developed because the pursuit of empirical evidence to underpin such theoretically grounded management continues in the absence of an objective probability framework. This has blurred the lines between intuitive logic (based on the elementary principles of probability) and extensional logic (based on assumption and belief) in this field.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels.

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).