Heat-related mortality at the beginning of the twenty-first century in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Temperature record-breaking events, such as the observed more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent heat waves, pose a new global challenge to health sectors worldwide. These threats are of particular interest in low-income regions with limited investments in public health and a growing urban population, such as Brazil. Here, we apply a comprehensive interdisciplinary climate-health approach, including meteorological data and a daily mortality record from the Brazilian Health System from 2000 to 2015, covering 21 cities over the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro. The percentage of absolute mortality increase due to summer extreme temperatures is estimated using a negative binomial regression modeling approach and maximum/minimum temperature-derived indexes as covariates. Moreover, this study assesses the vulnerability to thermal stress for different age groups and both genders and thoroughly analyzes four extremely intense heat waves during 2010 and 2012 regarding their impacts on the population. Results showed that the highest absolute mortality values during heat-related events were linked to circulatory illnesses. However, the highest excess of mortality was related to diabetes, particularly for women within the elderly age groups. Moreover, results indicate that accumulated heat stress conditions during consecutive days preferentially preceded by persistent periods of moderate-temperature, lead to higher excess mortality rather than sporadic single hot days. This work may provide directions in human health policies related to extreme climate events in large tropical metropolitan areas from developing countries, contributing to altering the historically based purely reactive response.

Characterizing the atmospheric conditions during the 2010 heatwave in Rio de Janeiro marked by excessive mortality rates.

Global temperatures have increased considerably over the last decades, directly impacting the number, intensity and duration of extreme events such as heat waves. Climate model projections accounting for anthropogenic factors indicate that deadly mega-heat waves are likely to become more frequent in the future. Although the atmospheric features and social-economic related impacts of heat waves have already been documented in various regions around the world, for other highly populated regions, such as the Metropolitan Region of Rio de Janeiro (MRRJ), a similar objective assessment is still needed. Heat waves directly impact the public health sector and particularly the less wealthy and elderly population groups. During February 2010, an elevated mortality peak occurred during a 8-day period (from 2 to 9 Feb 2010) characterized as a heat wave episode in MRRJ. A total excess of 737 deaths was recorded with the elderly group registering the highest mortality incidence. During this heat wave period, a quasi-stationary anticyclonic anomaly forced in altitude by a Rossby wave train was established over the south Brazilian coast. At the surface, the meteorological scenario from January 2010 to the heat wave period was marked by clear sky conditions, large precipitation deficits, and enhanced diabatic heating. During the heat wave period, warm and dry air masses were advected from interior regions towards the MRRJ, exacerbating temperature conditions by pronounced subsidence and adiabatic heating mechanisms. All these conditions contributed to pronounced positive temperature anomalies, reinforced by land-atmosphere feedbacks.