Movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) breeding in an urban environment in coastal Virginia.

Nesting colonial seabirds are prime examples of central-place foragers, animals that must return to a central location (e.g., a breeding colony) after each bout of foraging. They must balance the costs and benefits of foraging with the need to return to their colonies frequently to form pair bonds during courtship, incubate, provision mates and offspring, and protect and rear young. For some populations, the loss and degradation of suitable breeding habitat due to human activities have necessitated the construction of new breeding sites and/or the restoration of previously occupied sites. South Island, which is part of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) complex in the Commonwealth of Virginia, U.S.A., is a human-created island that supported Virginia's largest mixed species seabird colony until 2020, when the expansion of the HRBT began and when all nesting seabirds were permanently excluded from the site. We studied the movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) to determine how travel to and around foraging sites related to their colony location and to inform the siting and construction of a new breeding island. We tracked 18 individual common terns from 07 June to 29 June 2018, and we used a hidden Markov model to assign behavioral states and investigate common tern movements around the HRBT. Common terns spent more than half their time in the colony (58%), followed by time devoted to foraging (22%), and the remainder of their time was spent on outbound (15%) and inbound (5%) transit. Terns traveled as far as 98km from the colony, but on average foraged relatively close to South Island (13.6 ± 0.3km, mean ± 1 SD). Individuals tended to forage in the same locations, but there was variation among individuals. Flying to foraging sites uses energy during the already energetically costly breeding season, thus managers should prioritize placing a new colony site in a location that minimizes the distance traveled to the foraging locations frequented by the South Island birds while accounting for other life-history characteristics. These findings could help in the design and construction of new breeding sites or the restoration of current sites for other, related species, particularly for which these data do not exist.

Epidemiology of sarcoptic mange in a geographically constrained insular red fox population.

BACKGROUND: Sarcoptic mange is a skin disease caused by the contagious ectoparasite Sarcoptes scabiei, capable of suppressing and extirpating wild canid populations. Starting in 2015, we observed a multi-year epizootic of sarcoptic mange affecting a red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population on Fire Island, NY, USA. We explored the ecological factors that contributed to the spread of sarcoptic mange and characterized the epizootic in a landscape where red foxes are geographically constrained. METHODS: We tested for the presence of S. scabiei DNA in skin samples collected from deceased red foxes with lesions visibly consistent with sarcoptic mange disease. We deployed 96-100 remote trail camera stations each year to capture red fox occurrences and used generalized linear mixed-effects models to assess the affects of red fox ecology, human and other wildlife activity, and island geography on the frequency of detecting diseased red foxes. We rated the extent of visual lesions in diseased individuals and mapped the severity and variability of the sarcoptic mange disease. RESULTS: Skin samples that we analyzed demonstrated 99.8% similarity to S. scabiei sequences in GenBank. Our top-ranked model (weight = 0.94) showed that diseased red foxes were detected more frequently close to roadways, close to territories of other diseased red foxes, away from human shelters, and in areas with more mammal activity. There was no evidence that detection rates in humans and their dogs or distance to the nearest red fox den explained the detection rates of diseased red foxes. Although detected infrequently, we observed the most severe signs of sarcoptic mange at the periphery of residential villages. The spread of visual signs of the disease was approximately 7.3 ha/week in 2015 and 12.1 ha/week in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: We quantified two separate outbreaks of sarcoptic mange disease that occurred > 40 km apart and were separated by a year. Sarcoptic mange revealed an unfettered spread across the red fox population. The transmission of S. scabiei mites in this system was likely driven by red fox behaviors and contact between individuals, in line with previous studies. Sarcoptic mange is likely an important contributor to red fox population dynamics within barrier island systems.

Climate change and commercial fishing practices codetermine survival of a long-lived seabird.

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.

Factors that affect migratory Western Atlantic red knots (Calidris canutus rufa) and their prey during spring staging on Virginia's barrier islands.

Understanding factors that influence a species' distribution and abundance across the annual cycle is required for range-wide conservation. Thousands of imperiled red knots (Calidris cantus rufa) stop on Virginia's barrier islands each year to replenish fat during spring migration. We investigated the variation in red knot presence and flock size, the effects of prey on this variation, and factors influencing prey abundance on Virginia's barrier islands. We counted red knots and collected potential prey samples at randomly selected sites from 2007-2018 during a two-week period during early and peak migration. Core samples contained crustaceans (Orders Amphipoda and Calanoida), blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), coquina clams (Donax variabilis), and miscellaneous prey (horseshoe crab eggs (Limulus polyphemus), angel wing clams (Cyrtopleura costata), and other organisms (e.g., insect larvae, snails, worms)). Estimated red knot peak counts in Virginia during 21-27 May were highest in 2012 (11,959) and lowest in 2014 (2,857; 12-year peak migration [Formula: see text] = 7,175, SD = 2,869). Red knot and prey numbers varied across sampling periods and substrates (i.e., peat and sand). Red knots generally used sites with more prey. Miscellaneous prey ([Formula: see text] = 2401.00/m2, SE = 169.16) influenced red knot presence at a site early in migration, when we only sampled on peat banks. Coquina clams ([Formula: see text] = 1383.54/m2, SE = 125.32) and blue mussels ([Formula: see text] = 777.91/m2, SE = 259.31) affected red knot presence at a site during peak migration, when we sampled both substrates. Few relationships between prey and red knot flock size existed, suggesting that other unmeasured factors determined red knot numbers at occupied sites. Tide and mean daily water temperature affected prey abundance. Maximizing the diversity, availability, and abundance of prey for red knots on barrier islands requires management that encourages the presence of both sand and peat bank intertidal habitats.

Using a Bayesian network to understand the importance of coastal storms and undeveloped landscapes for the creation and maintenance of early successional habitat.

Coastal storms have consequences for human lives and infrastructure but also create important early successional habitats for myriad species. For example, storm-induced overwash creates nesting habitat for shorebirds like piping plovers (Charadrius melodus). We examined how piping plover habitat extent and location changed on barrier islands in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia after Hurricane Sandy made landfall following the 2012 breeding season. We modeled nesting habitat using a nest presence/absence dataset that included characterizations of coastal morphology and vegetation. Using a Bayesian network, we predicted nesting habitat for each study site for the years 2010/2011, 2012, and 2014/2015 based on remotely sensed spatial datasets (e.g., lidar, orthophotos). We found that Hurricane Sandy increased piping plover habitat by 9 to 300% at 4 of 5 study sites but that one site saw a decrease in habitat by 27%. The amount, location, and longevity of new habitat appeared to be influenced by the level of human development at each site. At three of the five sites, the amount of habitat created and the time new habitat persisted were inversely related to the amount of development. Furthermore, the proportion of new habitat created in high-quality overwash was inversely related to the level of development on study areas, from 17% of all new habitat in overwash at one of the most densely developed sites to 80% of all new habitat at an undeveloped site. We also show that piping plovers exploited new habitat after the storm, with 14-57% of all nests located in newly created habitat in the 2013 breeding season. Our results quantify the importance of storms in creating and maintaining coastal habitats for beach-nesting species like piping plovers, and these results suggest a negative correlation between human development and beneficial ecological impacts of these natural disturbances.

Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds".

Kubelka et al (Reports, 9 November 2018, p. 680) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and prairie rivers.

BACKGROUND: Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008-2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one 'natural' study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment. RESULTS: High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0 %) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation). CONCLUSIONS: We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of condition indices as surrogates for individual quality and fitness.