Which patients are at risk of developing symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year in primary care? Development and external validation of a prediction model.

OBJECTIVES: To train, test and externally validate a prediction model that supports General Practitioners (GPs) in early identification of patients at risk of developing symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year. METHODS: We retrospectively collected and selected all patients having episodes of symptom diagnoses during the period 2008 and 2021 from the Family Medicine Network (FaMe-Net) database. From this group, we identified symptom diagnoses that last for less than a year and symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year. Multivariable logistic regression analysis using a backward selection was used to assess which factors were most predictive for developing symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year. Performance of the model was assessed using calibration and discrimination (AUC) measures. External validation was tested using data between 2018 and 2022 from AHON-registry, a primary care electronic health records data registry including 73 general practices from the north and east regions of the Netherlands and about 460,795 patients. RESULTS: From the included 47,870 patients with a symptom diagnosis in the FaMe-Net registry, 12,481 (26.1%) had a symptom diagnosis that persisted for more than a year. Older age (≥ 75 years: OR = 1.30, 95% CI [1.19, 1.42]), having more previous symptom diagnoses (≥ 3: 1.11, [1.05, 1.17]) and more contacts with the GP over the last 2 years (≥ 10 contacts: 5.32, [4.80, 5.89]) were predictive of symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year with a marginally acceptable discrimination (AUC 0.70, 95% CI [0.69-0.70]). The external validation showed poor performance with an AUC of 0.64 ([0.63-0.64]). CONCLUSION: A clinical prediction model based on age, number of previous symptom diagnoses and contacts might help the GP to early identify patients developing symptom diagnoses that persist for more than a year. However, the performance of the original model is limited. Hence, the model is not yet ready for a large-scale implementation.

The burden of persistent symptom diagnoses in primary care patients: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of symptoms is a subjective experience of distress. Little is known on the burden of feeling unwell in patients with persistent symptom diagnoses. The aim of this study was to assess the burden in primary care patients with persistent symptom diagnoses compared to other primary care patients. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed in which an online survey was sent to random samples of 889 patients with persistent symptom diagnoses (>1 year) and 443 other primary care patients after a transactional identification in a Dutch primary care data registry. Validated questionnaires were used to assess the severity of symptoms (PHQ-15), Symptom Intensity and Symptom Interference questionnaires, depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), quality of life (SF-12 and EQ-5D-5L)) and social functioning (SPF-ILs). RESULTS: Overall, 243 patients completed the survey: 178 (73.3%) patients in the persistent symptom diagnoses group and 65 (26.7%) patients in the control group. In the persistent group, 65 (36.5%) patients did not have persistent symptom(s) anymore according to the survey response. Patients who still had persistent symptom diagnoses (n = 113, 63.5%) reported significantly more severe somatic symptoms (mean difference = 3.6, [95% CI: 0.24, 4.41]), depression (mean difference = 3.0 [95% CI: 1.24, 3.61]) and anxiety (mean difference = 2.3 [95% CI: 0.28, 3.10]) and significantly lower physical functioning (mean difference = - 6.8 [95% CI: -8.96, -3.92]). CONCLUSION: Patients with persistent symptom diagnoses suffer from high levels of symptoms burden. The burden in patient with persistent symptoms should not be underestimated as awareness of this burden may enhance person-centered care.

Patients' Characteristics and General Practitioners' Management of Patients with Symptom Diagnoses.

INTRODUCTION: Symptom diagnoses are diagnoses used in primary care when the relevant diagnostic criteria of a disease are not fulfilled. Although symptom diagnoses often get resolved spontaneously without a clearly defined illness nor treatment, up to 38% of these symptoms persist more than 1 year. It is largely unknown how often symptom diagnoses occur, which symptoms persist, and how general practitioners (GPs) manage them. AIM: Explore morbidity rates, characteristics and management of patients with nonpersistent (≤1 year) and persistent (>1 year) symptom diagnoses. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed in a Dutch practice-based research network including 28,590 registered patients. We selected symptom diagnosis episodes with at least 1 contact in 2018. We performed descriptive statistics, Student's T and χ2 tests to summarize and compare patients' characteristics and GP management strategies in the nonpersistent and persistent groups. RESULTS: The incidence rate of symptom diagnoses was 767 episodes per 1000 patient-years. The prevalence rate was 485 patients per 1000 patient-years. Out of the patients who had a contact with their GPs, 58% had at least 1 symptom diagnosis, from which 16% were persistent (>1 year). In the persistent group, we found significantly more females (64% vs 57%), older patients (mean: 49 vs 36 years of age), patients with more comorbidities (71% vs 49%), psychological (17% vs 12%) and social (8% vs 5%) problems. Prescriptions (62% vs 23%) and referral (62.7% vs 30.6%) rates were significantly higher in persistent symptom episodes. CONCLUSION: Symptom diagnoses are highly prevalent (58%) of which a considerable part (16%) persists more than a year.