Investigating Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Risk of Asthma Exacerbations: A Systematic Review.

Asthma, a common chronic respiratory disease among children and adults, affects more than 200 million people worldwide and causes about 450,000 deaths each year. Machine learning is increasingly applied in healthcare to assist health practitioners in decision-making. In asthma management, machine learning excels in performing well-defined tasks, such as diagnosis, prediction, medication, and management. However, there remain uncertainties about how machine learning can be applied to predict asthma exacerbation. This study aimed to systematically review recent applications of machine learning techniques in predicting the risk of asthma attacks to assist asthma control and management. A total of 860 studies were initially identified from five databases. After the screening and full-text review, 20 studies were selected for inclusion in this review. The review considered recent studies published from January 2010 to February 2023. The 20 studies used machine learning techniques to support future asthma risk prediction by using various data sources such as clinical, medical, biological, and socio-demographic data sources, as well as environmental and meteorological data. While some studies considered prediction as a category, other studies predicted the probability of exacerbation. Only a group of studies applied prediction windows. The paper proposes a conceptual model to summarise how machine learning and available data sources can be leveraged to produce effective models for the early detection of asthma attacks. The review also generated a list of data sources that other researchers may use in similar work. Furthermore, we present opportunities for further research and the limitations of the preceding studies.

An Exploration of the Goodness of Fit of Web-Based Tools for Maori: Qualitative Study Using Interviews and Focus Groups.

BACKGROUND: Indigenous communities often have poorer health outcomes and services under traditional models of care. In New Zealand, this holds true for Maori people who are tangata whenua (the indigenous people). Several barriers exist that decrease the likelihood of indigenous communities often have poorer health outcomes and poor service fit under traditional models of care, including access issues, systemic and provider racism, and a lack of culturally safe and responsive services. Web-based interventions (WBIs) have been shown to be effective in supporting mental health and well-being and can overcome some of these barriers. Despite the large number of WBIs developed, more investigation is needed to know how well WBIs fit with an indigenous worldview and how they meet the needs of indigenous communities so that a digitally based future does not drive social and health inequities. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to explore the goodness-of-fit of WBIs of Maori individuals, the indigenous people of Aotearoa/New Zealand. METHODS: We used interviews (n=3) and focus groups (n=5) with 30 Maori participants to explore their views about WBIs. Interviews were analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis by members of the research team. RESULTS: Overall, there was a perception that the design of WBIs did not align with the Maori worldview, which centers around people, relationships, spirituality, and holistic views of well-being. A total of 4 key themes and several subthemes emerged, indicating that WBIs were generally considered a poor fit for Maori. Specifically, the themes were as follows: (1) WBIs are disconnected from the core values of te ao Maori (the Maori worldview), (2) WBIs could be helpful in the right context, (3) there are significant barriers that may make it harder for Maori to use WBIs than other groups, and (4) ways to improve WBIs to help engagement with Maori. CONCLUSIONS: While WBIs are often considered a way to reduce barriers to care, they may not meet the needs of Maori when used as a stand-alone intervention. If WBIs are continued to be offered, developers and researchers need to consider how to develop WBIs that are responsive and engaging to the needs of indigenous communities rather than driving inequities. Ideally, WBIs should be developed by the people they are intended for to fit with those populations' world views.

Maternal diabetes and risk of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder in offspring in a multinational cohort of 3.6 million mother-child pairs.

Previous studies report an association between maternal diabetes mellitus (MDM) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), often overlooking unmeasured confounders such as shared genetics and environmental factors. We therefore conducted a multinational cohort study with linked mother-child pairs data in Hong Kong, New Zealand, Taiwan, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to evaluate associations between different MDM (any MDM, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregestational diabetes mellitus (PGDM)) and ADHD using Cox proportional hazards regression. We included over 3.6 million mother-child pairs between 2001 and 2014 with follow-up until 2020. Children who were born to mothers with any type of diabetes during pregnancy had a higher risk of ADHD than unexposed children (pooled hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.08-1.24). Higher risks of ADHD were also observed for both GDM (pooled HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.04-1.17) and PGDM (pooled HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.25-1.55). However, siblings with discordant exposure to GDM in pregnancy had similar risks of ADHD (pooled HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.94-1.17), suggesting potential confounding by unmeasured, shared familial factors. Our findings indicate that there is a small-to-moderate association between MDM and ADHD, whereas the association between GDM and ADHD is unlikely to be causal. This finding contrast with previous studies, which reported substantially higher risk estimates, and underscores the need to reevaluate the precise roles of hyperglycemia and genetic factors in the relationship between MDM and ADHD.

Persistent Opioid Use After Hospital Admission From Surgery in New Zealand: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Persistent opioid use (POU) is common after surgery and is associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity. There have been no population-based studies exploring POU in opioid-naïve surgical patients in New Zealand (NZ). This study aimed to determine the incidence and risk factors for POU in opioid-naïve patients undergoing surgery in all NZ hospitals. METHOD: We included all opioid-naïve patients who underwent surgery without a concomitant trauma diagnosis and received opioids after discharge from any NZ hospital between January 2007 and December 2019. Patients were considered opioid naïve if no opioids had been dispensed to them or if they did not have a prior diagnosis of an opioid-use disorder up to 365 days preceding the index date. The primary outcome was the incidence of POU, defined a priori as opioid use after discharge between 91 and 365 days. We used a multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors for POU. RESULTS: We identified 1789,407 patients undergoing surgery with no concomitant diagnosis of trauma; 377,144 (21.1%) were dispensed opioids and 260,726 patients were eligible and included in the analysis. Of those included in the final sample, 23,656 (9.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.0%-9.2%) developed POU. Risk factors related to how opioids were prescribed included: changing to different opioid(s) after discharge (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.21; 95% CI, 3.04-3.38), receiving multiple opioids on discharge (aOR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.29-1.45), and higher total oral morphine equivalents (>400 mg) (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.23-1.45). Conversely, patients who were coprescribed nonopioid analgesics on discharge had lower odds of POU (aOR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.95). Only small differences were observed between different ethnicities. Other risk factors associated with increased risk of POU included undergoing neurosurgery (aOR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.83-2.24), higher comorbidity burden (aOR, 1.90; 95% CI, 1.75-2.07), preoperative nonopioid analgesic use (aOR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.60-1.71), smoking (aOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.35-1.54), and preoperative hypnotics use (aOR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.28-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 1 in 11 opioid-naïve patients who were dispensed opioids on surgical discharge, developed POU. Potentially modifiable risk factors for POU, related to how opioids were prescribed included changing opioids after discharge, receiving multiple opioids, and higher total dose of opioids given on discharge. Clinicians should discuss the possibility of developing POU with patients before and after surgery and consider potentially modifiable risk factors for POU when prescribing analgesia on discharge after surgery.

Health and illness beliefs in adults with tuberculosis infection during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK.

Background: COVID-19 disrupted the TB prevention programme in the UK, especially for TB infection (TBI) care. We explore whether experience of the COVID-19 pandemic impacted on patients' perceptions of TBI and its treatment. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted as part of the Research to Improve Detection and Treatment of TBI (RID-TB) programme, exploring perceptual and practical barriers to TBI treatment. Nineteen people diagnosed with TBI were interviewed between August 2020 and April 2021. Recordings were transcribed and analysed using a constant comparative approach, allowing for a dynamic and iterative exploration of themes. Themes are organised using the Perceptions and Practicalities Approach. Findings: Some participants perceived TBI as a risk factor for increased susceptibility to COVID-19, while some thought that treatment for TBI might protect against COVID-19 or mitigate its effects. Adaptations to TB services (e.g., remote follow-up) and integrated practices during the COVID-19 restrictions (e.g., medication being posted) addressed some practical barriers to TBI treatment. However, we identified beliefs about TBI and COVID-19 that are likely to act as barriers to engagement with TBI treatment, including: interpreting service delays as an indication of TBI not being serious enough for treatment and concerns about contracting COVID-19 in TB clinics. Interpretation: COVID-19 and TBI service delays influence people's perceptions and practical barriers to TBI treatment adherence. Failure to address these beliefs may lead to people's concerns about their treatment not being fully addressed. Utilised service adaptations like remote consultations to address practical barriers may be relevant beyond COVID-19. Funding: NIHR RID-TB Program (RP-PG-0217-20009).

Evaluating the Feasibility of a Community Pharmacy-Delivered Behaviour Change Intervention to Reduce Reliever Reliance in Asthma.

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of a community pharmacy-delivered intervention to shift patients' beliefs about short-acting beta2 agonists (SABA) in asthma management. The study targeted individual beliefs about SABA and assessed actual SABA use, focusing on reducing SABA use as well as adherence to inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) as a preventive measure. Patients and Methods: This non-randomized, before-and-after feasibility study enrolled participants with asthma from four community pharmacies in Auckland, New Zealand. Eligible participants were aged 18 years and above and were prescribed a SABA for their asthma. The intervention included the SABA reliance questionnaire to determine the degree of SABA reliance, verbal discussions with pharmacists personalised according to the degree of SABA reliance identified, and referral to general practitioners as appropriate. Results: Of the 44 patients who consented into the study, 19 were in the control group and 16 in the intervention group. Recruitment and retention were modest, with 10 control and five intervention participants completing the 90-day follow-up. Although not statistically significant, preliminary results indicated reduced SABA reliance and increased ICS adherence in the intervention group, and reduced SABA refill. Feedback showed that 78% of intervention participants found the information easy to understand, and 56% expressed intent to consult their general practitioners. Pharmacy staff found the intervention feasible but noted time constraints as a barrier to intervention delivery. Conclusion: The study demonstrates that a community pharmacy-delivered intervention is feasible and acceptable to both patients and pharmacists. While preliminary results show a positive effect on reducing SABA reliance and improvement of ICS adherence, the results were not statistically significant due to the small numbers recruited. This suggests a larger randomised trial is indicated. This intervention holds promise for addressing the over-reliance on SABA in asthma management and improving adherence to preventive therapies.

Vaccine decision making in New Zealand: a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy is a significant threat to global health. A key part of addressing hesitancy is to ensure that public health messaging prioritises information that is considered important to the public. This study aimed to examine how different vaccine characteristics affect public preferences for vaccines in New Zealand, what trade-offs they are willing to make between different vaccine characteristics, and how their preferences are affected by their vaccine-related conspiracy beliefs and COVID-19 vaccination status. METHODS: An online discrete choice experiment (DCE) was designed to elicit individual preferences about vaccines using the 1000minds platform. Members of the general population of New Zealand aged ≥ 18 years were invited to complete the DCE. Participants were asked to indicate their preference between two options showing different combinations of vaccine characteristics. Data on sociodemographic characteristics were collected. Beliefs were measured using the vaccine conspiracy beliefs scale (VCBS) with scores ≥ 19 indicating strong vaccine-related conspiracy beliefs. The DCE was analysed using the PAPRIKA method (Potentially All Pairwise RanKings of all possible Alternatives) and preferences compared between respondents with high versus low VCBS scores and vaccinated versus unvaccinated respondents for COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 611 respondents from 15 regions completed the DCE. Mean (SD) age was 45.9 (14.7) years with most having had 2 or more doses of the coronavirus vaccine (86%). Mean (SD) VCBS score was 18.5 (12.4) indicating moderate vaccine-related conspiracy beliefs. Risk of severe adverse effects was the most highly valued vaccine characteristic, followed by vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection. Vaccine origin and route of administration were ranked least important. Respondents scoring high on the VCBS placed less value on the effectiveness of vaccines but greater value on development time and total number of doses (p < 0.001). COVID-19 unvaccinated respondents ranked development time and total number of doses more highly than those vaccinated respondents (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Risk of severe adverse effects, vaccine effectiveness and duration of protection were rated by the New Zealand public as the top three most important vaccine characteristics. This information is important for informing public health messaging to promote vaccine uptake and inform vaccine decision-making.

Patterns of opioid use in New Zealand older adults, 2007-2018.

OBJECTIVES: Opioid use has increased globally, dramatically increasing opioid overdose, dependence, abuse and mortality. Limited research is available on opioid use patterns in older adults in New Zealand and internationally. This study aims to address this gap by determining the incidence and prevalence of opioid use among older adults (age ≥65 years) in New Zealand from 2007 to 2018. METHODS: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study conducted using New Zealand national administrative healthcare databases. The annual opioid use incidence (2008-2018) and prevalence (2007-2018) in older adults were determined and stratified by sex, age, and opioid type and strength. We used descriptive statistics to summarise the patterns of opioid dispensing. Data analysis was conducted using MS Excel, and data linking was performed using SQL software. RESULTS: A total of 820,349 older adults were initiated on opioids during the study period. The overall incidence of opioid use in older adults showed a steady increase from 2008 to 2015; similarly, the prevalence steadily increased from 2007 to 2015, and thereafter, both rates fluctuated. A slight decrease in both prevalence and incidence rates was observed in 2018. Codeine and tramadol were the most commonly dispensed opioids during the study period. Females had a higher incidence and prevalence of all opioids than males. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of opioid dispensing increased in New Zealand older adults over time. Monitoring the trends of opioid use in older adults is critical to enable clinicians and policymakers to deliver early interventions to prevent future opioid-related adverse events.

Asthma control and associated risk factors among adults with current asthma: Findings from 2019 behavioral risk factor surveillance system asthma call-back survey.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective treatments, many adults with asthma have uncontrolled asthma. Uncontrolled asthma can lead to severe exacerbations. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and predictors of uncontrolled asthma among adults (≥18 years) with current asthma in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed the 2019 Behavior Risk Factor Surveillance System Asthma Call-Back Survey data from 27 states. Asthma control status was classified as "well-controlled" or "uncontrolled" according to the National Asthma Education and Prevention guidelines. The study population consisted of 7937 adults (weighted n = 13,793,220) with current asthma. We used multivariable logistic regression models to identify predictors of uncontrolled asthma. RESULTS: Overall, 62 % of adults with asthma reported having uncontrolled asthma, and 26 % had emergency or urgent care visits or hospitalizations in the past year. Potentially modifiable risk factors associated with uncontrolled asthma included cost barriers to asthma-related healthcare (OR = 2.94; 95%CI 1.96-4.40), complementary and alternative medicine use (OR = 1.84; 95%CI 1.45-2.32), current smoking (OR = 2.25; 95%CI 1.48-3.44), obesity (OR = 1.39; 95%CI 1.02-1.89), COPD (OR = 1.98; 95%CI 1.43-2.74), depression (OR = 1.47; 95%CI 1.16-1.88), fair/poor general health (OR = 1.54; 95%CI 1.14-2.07), household income <$15,000 (OR = 2.59; 95%CI 1.42-4.71), and less than high school education (OR = 2.59; 95%CI 1.42-4.71). Non-modifiable risk factor was Hispanic ethnicity (OR = 1.73; 95%CI 1.09-2.73). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that uncontrolled asthma is common among adults and can be impacted by several factors. Effective asthma control programs are needed to improve asthma management and reduce unnecessary healthcare utilization.

Medication beliefs, adherence, and outcomes in people with asthma: The importance of treatment beliefs in understanding inhaled corticosteroid nonadherence-a retrospective analysis of a real-world data set.

Background: Poor adherence to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increases asthma morbidity and mortality and is influenced by patients' treatment beliefs. This study maps patients' beliefs about ICSs across 6 countries examining variations in beliefs, and their relationship with adherence and outcomes. Objective: We sought to explore the relationship between patient treatment beliefs, and adherence and outcomes in asthma across 6 countries. Methods: Patients 18 years or older with asthma, receiving ICS alone or in combination with a long-acting ß2-agonist, were included from a point-in-time paper survey of patients with asthma in Europe and the United States. Clinical characteristics, such as adherence and asthma control, were collected by self- and physician-report. Patients completed the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire, adapted for ICSs. Relationships between patient treatment beliefs, adherence, and outcomes were examined using regression analyses. Results: Data from 1312 patients were analyzed. Patients were from Germany (24%), the United States (21%), France (21%), Spain (16%), Italy (10%), and the United Kingdom (9%). Most had physician-reported mild-intermittent asthma (87%), and mean age was 40 ± 15.5 years. There was considerable variation in necessity beliefs between countries, with respondents in Italy having more doubts about treatment necessity and respondents in Spain showing higher concerns. Patients with doubts about ICS necessity and high concerns had lower self-reported (necessity: χ2(2) = 34.31, P < .001; concerns: χ2(2) = 20.98, P < .001) and physician-reported adherence (necessity: χ2(2) = 11.70, P = .003; concerns: χ2(2) = 34.45, P < .001). Patients with high necessity beliefs (F(2, 483) = 3.33; P = .037) and high concerns (F(2,483) = 23.46; P < .001) reported poorer control. Physician estimates of adherence did not correlate well with patient self-report (ρ = 0.178, P < .001). Conclusions: ICS necessity beliefs and concerns were associated with adherence and asthma control. This has implications for the design of adherence interventions.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on asthma exacerbations in New Zealand: An interrupted time series analysis.

Background: New Zealand (NZ) implemented some of the strictest restrictions during the novel coronavirus pandemic (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). How this impacted asthma exacerbation rates in NZ is unknown. Objective: We sought to explore the effects of the COVID-19 restrictions on asthma exacerbations in NZ during 2020. Methods: We used a population-based, interrupted time series to examine the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown in NZ on asthma exacerbation rate. The primary outcome measure was change in the monthly exacerbation rate, defined as hospitalization and/or course of corticosteroids, before and after the first lockdown. In a secondary analysis, we quantified the number of patients with asthma, the actual asthma exacerbation rate from March to December 2019 versus March to December 2020, and the number of asthma hospitalizations. Results: There was a significant drop in the exacerbation rate immediately after lockdown (-3.02; P < .0001) followed by a significant and sustained increasing trend; the rate postlockdown increased relative to that prelockdown (0.27; P < .0001). Similar patterns were observed in all sociodemographic groups. In our secondary analysis, we identified 507,622 people with asthma; this reduced to 458,023 in 2020 postlockdown. The overall asthma exacerbation rate was 33.3% less in 2020 than in 2019 (reduction from 48.6/1000 patients to 32.4/1000 patients). The rate of asthma hospitalizations decreased from 9.5 per 1000 patients in 2019 to 6.2 per 1000 patients in 2020; this decrease was observed across all demographic groups. Conclusions: The first COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 in NZ significantly reduced asthma exacerbation rates across all sociodemographic groups. Whether these reductions are sustained requires further investigation.

Psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with asthma: a co-produced mixed-methods study.

OBJECTIVE: When COVID-19 was declared a pandemic there was concern that people living with asthma were at high-risk of poor outcomes. We aimed to explore the psychological impact of living with asthma in the United Kingdom during the pandemic. METHODS AND MEASURES: Our mixed methods study, co-designed with patient and public involvement colleagues, included an online survey to detect anxiety/depression/post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and health beliefs; and qualitative interviews. We recruited 849 participants for the survey and interviewed 26 between May and June 2020. Audio-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim, and analysed thematically. RESULTS: The survey identified that 77% of respondents were experiencing symptoms of anxiety, 77% were experiencing symptoms of depression, and PTSD was of concern for 61%. Two-thirds of respondents felt the pandemic had changed how they managed their asthma (n = 568, 66.9%), and over half felt that they had not been given adequate health information about COVID-19 (n = 495, 58.3%). Qualitative interviews identified five themes (1) health communication, (2) interaction with healthcare, (3) COVID-19-related concerns, (4) impact on mental health, and (5) behaviour change. CONCLUSION: Psychological distress was prevalent in people with asthma during the early stage of the pandemic. Understanding this may be useful to inform future healthcare/policy planning.

Predictors of persistent opioid use in non-cancer older adults: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Long-term opioid use and associated adverse outcomes have increased dramatically in recent years. Limited research is available on long-term opioid use in older adults. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of long-term or persistent opioid use (POU) amongst opioid-naïve older adults without a cancer diagnosis. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using five national administrative healthcare databases in New Zealand. We included all opioid-naïve older adults (≥65 years) who were initiated on opioid therapy between January 2013 and June 2018. The outcome of interest was POU, defined as having continuously filled ≥1 opioid prescription within 91-180 days after the index opioid prescription. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the predictors of POU. RESULTS: The final sample included 268,857 opioid-naïve older adults; of these, 5,849(2.2%) developed POU. Several predictors of POU were identified. The use of fentanyl (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 3.61; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.63-4.95), slow-release opioids (AOR = 3.02; 95%CI 2.78-3.29), strong opioids (AOR = 2.03; 95%CI 1.55-2.65), Charlson Comorbidity Score ≥ 3 (AOR = 2.09; 95% CI 1.78-2.46), history of substance abuse (AOR = 1.52; 95%CI 1.35-1.72), living in most socioeconomically deprived areas (AOR = 1.40; 95%CI 1.27-1.54), and anti-epileptics (AOR = 2.07; 95%CI 1.89-2.26), non-opioid analgesics (AOR = 2.05; 95%CI 1.89-2.21), antipsychotics (AOR = 1.96; 95%CI 1.78-2.17) or antidepressants (AOR = 1.50; 95%CI 1.41-1.59) medication use were the strongest predictors of POU. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of patients developed POU, and several factors were associated with POU. The findings will enable healthcare providers and policymakers to target early interventions to prevent POU and related adverse events.

Asthma exacerbations in New Zealand 2010-2019: A national population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is one of the most common long-term conditions in the world, with New Zealand (NZ) having one of the highest rates of asthma symptoms. Despite the significant burden of asthma in NZ, there is a lack of data on asthma exacerbation rates in NZ and how these have varied over time. This study is a national population-based study of asthma exacerbation rates in NZ between 2010 and 2019, and explores how these rates vary amongst different demographic groups. METHODS: A retrospective population-based observational cohort study covering the ten years 2010-2019 to determine asthma prevalence, and asthma exacerbation and hospitalisation rates, using de-identified data from five national healthcare datasets. Exacerbations were defined based on hospital discharge diagnoses or oral corticosteroid dispensing. RESULTS: Total number of patients with asthma was 447,797 in 2010 to 512,627 in 2019, equating to approximately 10% of the population. Of these 19.4% experienced an exacerbation in 2010 (a population rate of 376.2 per 1000 patient-years); this exacerbation rate increased to 25.1% in 2019 (438.3 per 1000 patient-years). Exacerbations rates were consistently higher for females than males, and among Pacific peoples and Maori. In contrast, hospital admissions 25% lower in 2019 than 2010, decreasing from 1.4% to 0.9%, however over 50% of these admissions were in Maori and Pacific peoples. CONCLUSION: Asthma exacerbation rates in NZ have increased over 2010-2019, however hospitalisation rates have decreased. This potentially suggests a move away from secondary to primary care management of exacerbations and provides important information for asthma care planning.

Potentially inappropriate medications and potential prescribing omissions in hospitalised older adults in New Zealand: A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: Medication errors can have detrimental effects on patient outcomes, yet there are limited data on the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) and potential prescribing omissions (PPOs) among older adult inpatients in New Zealand (NZ). This study investigated exposure to PIMs and PPOs in older adults in a New Zealand hospital. METHODS: Electronic medical records of 846 older adults (≥ 65 years) discharged from the Auckland District Health Board between June 2020 and May 2021 were retrospectively reviewed to extract data on sociodemographic, medication and diagnostic information. STOPP/START version 2 was used to evaluate PIMs and PPOs on admission and discharge. RESULTS: The mean age was 77.47 ± 8.12 years, and 51% were female. On admission, 48% had ≥1 PIMs and 40% had ≥1 PPOs. On discharge, 45% had ≥1 PIMs and 40% had ≥1 PPOs. Increasing age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.02, 95% CI [confidence interval] 1.01, 1.04), number of medicines (AOR = 1.23, CI 1.17, 1.29) and 28-day admission history (AOR = 1.58, CI 1.15, 2.18) were associated with higher odds of PIMs use on admission. At discharge, the number of medicines (AOR = 1.19, CI 1.13, 1.25) and history of readmission (AOR = 1.47, CI 1.08, 2.02) were associated with higher odds of PIMs. Female patients had higher odds of PPOs both on admission (AOR = 1.35, CI 1.02, 1.78) and discharge (AOR = 1.34, CI 1.01, 1.78). Maori, Asian and Pacific patients were more likely to have prescribing omissions compared to NZ Europeans. CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing omissions and inappropriate medications were common in older inpatients. There were differences observed between different ethnic groups, with NZ Europeans having fewer omissions than other ethnic groups. These findings highlight key opportunities for health-care providers to improve medication use in older adults in NZ.

Formal and informal venous thromboembolism risk assessment and impact on prescribing of thromboprophylaxis: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired thrombosis (HAT) is a leading cause of preventable death and disability worldwide. HAT includes any venous thromboembolic (VTE) event occurring in-hospital or within 90-days of hospitalisation. Despite availability of evidence-based guidelines for HAT risk assessment and prophylaxis, guidelines are still underutilised. AIM: To determine the proportion of patients who developed HAT that could have been potentially prevented with appropriate VTE risk assessment and prophylaxis at a large public hospital in New Zealand. Additionally, the predictors of VTE risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis were examined. METHOD: VTE patients admitted under general medicine, reablement, general surgery, or orthopaedic surgery service were identified using ICD-10-AM codes. Data were collected on patient characteristics, VTE risk factors, and the thromboprophylaxis regimen prescribed. The hospital VTE guidelines were used to determine rates of VTE risk assessment and the appropriateness of thromboprophylaxis. RESULTS: Of 1302 VTE patients, 213 HATs were identified. Of these, 116 (54%) received VTE risk assessment, and 98 (46%) received thromboprophylaxis. Patients who received VTE risk assessment were 15 times more likely to receive thromboprophylaxis (odds ratio [OR] = 15.4; 95% CI 7.65-30.98) and 2.8 times more likely to receive appropriate thromboprophylaxis (OR = 2.79; 95% CI 1.59-4.89). CONCLUSION: A large proportion of high-risk patients who were admitted to medical, general surgery and reablement services and who developed HAT did not receive VTE risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis during their index admission, demonstrating a significant gap between guideline recommendations and clinical practice. Implementing mandatory VTE risk assessment and adherence to guidelines to improve thromboprophylaxis prescription in hospitalised patients may help reduce the burden of HAT.

Global Epidemiology of Hip Fractures: Secular Trends in Incidence Rate, Post-Fracture Treatment, and All-Cause Mortality.

In this international study, we examined the incidence of hip fractures, postfracture treatment, and all-cause mortality following hip fractures, based on demographics, geography, and calendar year. We used patient-level healthcare data from 19 countries and regions to identify patients aged 50 years and older hospitalized with a hip fracture from 2005 to 2018. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of hip fractures, post-hip fracture treatment (defined as the proportion of patients receiving anti-osteoporosis medication with various mechanisms of action [bisphosphonates, denosumab, raloxifene, strontium ranelate, or teriparatide] following a hip fracture), and the all-cause mortality rates after hip fractures were estimated using a standardized protocol and common data model. The number of hip fractures in 2050 was projected based on trends in the incidence and estimated future population demographics. In total, 4,115,046 hip fractures were identified from 20 databases. The reported age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of hip fractures ranged from 95.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 94.8-95.4) in Brazil to 315.9 (95% CI 314.0-317.7) in Denmark per 100,000 population. Incidence rates decreased over the study period in most countries; however, the estimated total annual number of hip fractures nearly doubled from 2018 to 2050. Within 1 year following a hip fracture, post-hip fracture treatment ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 11.1% to 11.9%) in Germany to 50.3% (95% CI 50.0% to 50.7%) in the United Kingdom, and all-cause mortality rates ranged from 14.4% (95% CI 14.0% to 14.8%) in Singapore to 28.3% (95% CI 28.0% to 28.6%) in the United Kingdom. Males had lower use of anti-osteoporosis medication than females, higher rates of all-cause mortality, and a larger increase in the projected number of hip fractures by 2050. Substantial variations exist in the global epidemiology of hip fractures and postfracture outcomes. Our findings inform possible actions to reduce the projected public health burden of osteoporotic fractures among the aging population. © 2023 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Scoping of pharmacists' health leadership training needs for effective antimicrobial stewardship in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health concern currently mitigated by antimicrobial stewardship (AMS). Pharmacists are strategically placed to lead AMS actions that contribute to responsible use of antimicrobials; however, this is undermined by an acknowledged health leadership skills deficit. Learning from the UK's Chief Pharmaceutical Officer's Global Health (ChPOGH) Fellowship programme, the Commonwealth Pharmacists Association (CPA) is focused to develop a health leadership training program for pharmacists in eight sub-Saharan African countries. This study thus explores need-based leadership training needs for pharmacists to provide effective AMS and inform the CPA's development of a focused leadership training programme, the 'Commonwealth Partnerships in AMS, Health Leadership Programme' (CwPAMS/LP). METHODS: A mixed methods approach was undertaken. Quantitative data were collected via a survey across 8 sub-Saharan African countries and descriptively analysed. Qualitative data were collected through 5 virtual focus group discussions, held between February and July 2021, involving stakeholder pharmacists from different sectors in the 8 countries and were analysed thematically. Data were triangulated to determine priority areas for the training programme. RESULTS: The quantitative phase produced 484 survey responses. Focus groups had 40 participants from the 8 countries. Data analysis revealed a clear need for a health leadership programme, with 61% of respondents finding previous leadership training programmes highly beneficial or beneficial. A proportion of survey participants (37%) and the focus groups highlighted poor access to leadership training opportunities in their countries. Clinical pharmacy (34%) and health leadership (31%) were ranked as the two highest priority areas for further training of pharmacists. Within these priority areas, strategic thinking (65%), clinical knowledge (57%), coaching and mentoring (51%), and project management (58%) were selected as the most important. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the training needs of pharmacists and priority focus areas for health leadership to advance AMS within the African context. Context-specific identification of priority areas supports a needs-based approach to programme development, maximising African pharmacists' contribution to AMS for improved and sustainable patient outcomes. This study recommends incorporating conflict management, behaviour change techniques, and advocacy, amongst others, as areas of focus to train pharmacist leaders to contribute to AMS effectively.

Attitude towards deprescribing and its association with frailty and complexity of medication regimen: A survey of older inpatients in a district health board in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Older inpatients, particularly those with frailty, have increased exposure to complex medication regimens. It is not known whether frailty and complexity of medication regimens influence attitudes toward deprescribing. This study aimed to investigate (1) older inpatients' attitudes toward deprescribing; (2) if frailty and complexity of medication regimen influence attitudes and willingness to deprescribe - a relationship that has not been investigated in previous studies. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, older adults (≥ 65 years) recruited from general medicine and geriatric services in a New Zealand hospital completed the revised Patients' Attitudes Towards Deprescribing (rPATD) questionnaire. Hospital frailty risk score (HFRS) was calculated using diagnostic codes and other relevant information present at the time of index hospital admission; higher scores indicate higher frailty risk. Medication regimen complexity was quantified using the medication regimen complexity index (MRCI); higher scores indicate greater complexity. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of attitudes and willingness to deprescribe. RESULTS: A total of 222 patients were included in the study, the median age was 83 years and 63% were female. One in two patients reported feeling they were taking too many medications, and 1 in 5 considered their medications burdensome. Almost 3 in 4 (73%) wanted to be involved in decision-making about their medications, and 4 in 5 (84%) were willing to stop one or more of their medications if their prescriber said it was possible. Patients with higher MRCI had increased self-reported medication burden (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.6, 95% CI 1.29, 5.29) and were more interested in being involved in decision-making about their medications (AOR 1.8, CI 0.99, 3.42) than those with lower MRCI. Patients with moderate HFRS had lower odds of willingness to deprescribe (AOR 0.45, CI 0.22,0.92) compared to the low-risk group. Female patients had a lower desire to be involved in decision-making. The oldest old age group( > 80 years) had lower self-reported medication burden and were less likely to want to try stopping their medications. CONCLUSION: Most older inpatients wanted to be involved in decision-making about their medications and were willing to stop one or more medications if proposed by their prescriber. Medication complexity and frailty status influence patients' attitudes toward deprescribing and thus should be taken into consideration when making deprescribing decisions. Further research is needed to investigate the relationship between frailty and the complexity of medication regimens.

Anti-dementia medication use in Aotearoa New Zealand: An exploratory study using health data from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI).

OBJECTIVE: Anti-dementia medications such as acetylcholinesterase inhibitors are an important part of the management pathway for dementia. However, there are limited data in New Zealand that have examined the rates and patterns of use of funded anti-dementia medication and how use differs with ethnicity, age and sex. METHODS: This was a retrospective population-based descriptive study. Using the Integrated Data Infrastructure, we identified individuals of all ages coded for a diagnosis of dementia and estimated the proportion dispensed funded anti-dementia medication - donepezil tablets and rivastigmine patches - between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2020. Rates of medication use in five main ethnic groups (Maori, Pacific peoples, Asian, European, and Middle Eastern, Latin American and African) in the <65, 65-79 and 80 and over (80+) age groups were compared and also between males and females in all sub-groups. Log-binomial models were used to calculate relative risks to determine any differences in anti-dementia medication use in the five ethnic groups and the three age groups and between males and females in each of the four study years. RESULTS: Overall, one-third of the dementia population received a funded anti-dementia medication in the total population (all ages) between 2016 and 2020. Donepezil tablets were dispensed in 31.6-34.0% and rivastigmine patches in 1.4-2.1% across the four study years. Compared to people of European ethnicity, Maori, Pacific peoples, and Middle Eastern, Latin American and African groups were less likely to be dispensed an anti-dementia medication (Maori: relative risk = 0.79-0.81, p < 0.0001; Pacific peoples: relative risk = 0.72-0.74, p < 0.0001; Middle Eastern, Latin American and African: relative risk = 0.73-0.78, p < 0.05). Compared to the age 80+ group, the 65-79 age group was more likely (relative risk = 1.50-1.54, p < 0.0001), while the age <65 group was less likely (relative risk = 0.67-0.71, p < 0.0001) to be dispensed an anti-dementia medication. There were no statistically significant differences in anti-dementia medication use between males and females. CONCLUSION: This study provides important information about funded anti-dementia medication use in New Zealand and how this differs by ethnicity, age and sex. Despite higher dementia prevalence in Maori and Pacific peoples, these groups were less likely to receive funded anti-dementia medication.