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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk stratification for patients with a higher risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is crucial. We aimed to investigate the role of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index in predicting chronic hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study consecutively included treatment-naive CHC patients receiving longitudinal follow-up at the National Taiwan University Hospital from 1986 to 2014. The clinical data were collected and traced for HCC development. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to investigate the predictors for HCC. RESULTS: A total of 1285 patients in the ERADICATE-C cohort were included. The median age was 54, 56% were females, and 933 had HCV viremia. There were 33%, 38%, and 29% of patients having FIB-4 index <1.45, 1.45-3.25, and ≥3.25, respectively. After a median of 9-year follow-up, 186 patients developed HCC. Multivariable analysis revealed that older age, AFP≥20 ng/mL, cirrhosis, and a higher FIB-4 index were independent predictors for HCC. Compared with patients with FIB-4 index <1.45, those with FIB-4 1.45-3.25 had a 5.51-fold risk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.65-11.46), and those with FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 had 7.45-fold risk (95% CI: 3.46-16.05) of HCC. In CHC patients without viremia, FIB-4 index 1.45-3.25 and FIB-4 ≥ 3.25 increased 6.78-fold and 16.77-fold risk of HCC, respectively, compared with those with FIB-4 < 1.45. CONCLUSION: The baseline FIB-4 index can stratify the risks of HCC in untreated CHC patients, even those without viremia. The FIB-4 index should thus be included in the management of CHC.
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AIM: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) checkup with abdominal ultrasonography for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance remains controversial. We evaluated a serial AFP-increase and high AFP levels in the prediction of HCC. METHODS: At-risk patients with chronic liver disease underwent HCC surveillance with trimonthly AFP measurement were included and categorized into HCC and non-HCC groups. Their AFP levels at 12, 9, and 6 months (-6M) before the outcome date were evaluated. Group-based trajectory analysis and multivariable regression analysis were performed to identify AFP trajectories as risk predictors for HCC. RESULTS: Overall, 2776 patients were included in the HCC (n = 326) and non-HCC (n = 2450) groups. Serial AFP levels were significantly higher in the HCC than the non-HCC groups. Trajectory analysis identified AFP-increase group (11%) increased 24-fold risks of HCC compared with the AFP-stable (89%) group. Compared with patients without the AFP-increase, a serial 3-month AFP-increase ≥10% elevated HCC risk by 12.1-fold (95% CI: 6.5-22.4) in 6 months, and the HCC risks increased 13-60 fold in patients with cirrhosis, hepatitis B, or C receiving antiviral therapy, or AFP levels <20 ng/ml. Combining serial AFP-increase ≥10% and AFP ≥20 ng/ml at -6M significantly increased 41.7-fold (95% CI: 13.8-126.2) HCC risks. In patients who underwent biannual AFP checkups, those with both 6-month AFP-increase ≥10% and AFP ≥20 ng/ml increased 22.1-fold (95% CI: 12.52-39.16) HCC risks in 6 months. Most HCCs were detected at an early stage. CONCLUSIONS: Serial 3-6-month AFP-increase of ≥10% previously and AFP level of ≥20 ng/ml significantly increased HCC risks in 6 months.
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BACKGROUND: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is reduced but not eliminated after nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to investigate the role of serum Prothrombin Induced by Vitamin K Absence or Antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) and alpha-fetoprotein in predicting HCC and mortality in cirrhotic CHB patients at virological remission (VR) following NA therapy. METHODS: Patients with CHB-related cirrhosis undergoing NA therapy from two medical centers in Taiwan were retrospectively included. Serum PIVKA-II were quantified by an automated chemiluminescence assay. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify predictors for HCC and death. Serial on-treatment PIVKA-II levels after VR were investigated. RESULTS: Overall, 293 CHB-related cirrhosis patients were included. At VR, the mean age was 55, and the mean PIVKA-II level was 35 mAU/mL. After a mean follow-up of 78 months, 76 patients developed HCC and 19 died. After adjustment for confounding factors, alpha-fetoprotein >7 ng/mL (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.73-4.67) and PIVKA-II >50 mAU/mL (HR: 2.46, 95%CI: 1.35-4.49) at VR significantly predicted HCC development. In patients with alpha-fetoprotein ≤10 ng/mL or ≤20 ng/mL at VR, PIVKA-II >50 mAU/mL increased 2.45 or 3.16-fold risk of HCC, respectively. PIVKA-II levels after VR increased serially in patients who developed HCC afterwards. CONCLUSION: In patients with CHB-related cirrhosis, serum alpha-fetoprotein >7 ng/mL and PIVKA-II >50 mAU/mL at the time of antiviral therapy-induced VR is associated with a greater risk of HCC. PIVKA-II is a predictive marker for HCC in patients with low normal alpha-fetoprotein level.