Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and the risk of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The systematic review aimed to assess the risks of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). EMBASE and MEDLINE were searched from inception to June 2022 for observational studies examining the relationship between MASLD and the risk of mortality among T2DM patients. Meta-analysis was conducted using random-effects models with hazard ratios (HRs) to quantify the risk of mortality. A total of 5877 articles were screened, and ultimately, 12 eligible studies encompassing 368 528 T2DM patients, with a median follow-up of 8.9 years (interquartile range, 4.7-14.5), were included. Our analysis revealed a significant association between MASLD and an increased risk of all-cause mortality in T2DM patients [HR 1.28; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-1.58; I 2  = 90%]. Meta-regression analyses did not show significant effects of mean age, mean BMI, and percentage of smokers, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia on the association between MASLD and the risk of all-cause mortality. However, we found that MASLD was not significantly associated with mortality related to cardiovascular diseases (HR 1.05; 95% CI, 0.82-1.35; I2  = 0%) or cancer (HR 1.21; 95% CI, 0.41-3.51; I 2  = 79%) among patients with T2DM. No publication bias was observed. This comprehensive meta-analysis provides substantial evidence supporting a significant association between MASLD and an increased risk of all-cause mortality among the T2DM population. These findings underscore the potential benefits of screening for MASLD in T2DM patients, aiding in the early identification of high-risk individuals and enabling risk modification strategies to improve survival.

Machine learning improves the prediction of significant fibrosis in Asian patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease - The Gut and Obesity in Asia (GO-ASIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: The precise estimation of cases with significant fibrosis (SF) is an unmet goal in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD/MASLD). AIMS: We evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) and non-patented scores for ruling out SF among NAFLD/MASLD patients. METHODS: Twenty-one ML models were trained (N = 1153), tested (N = 283), and validated (N = 220) on clinical and biochemical parameters of histologically-proven NAFLD/MASLD patients (N = 1656) collected across 14 centres in 8 Asian countries. Their performance for detecting histological-SF (≥F2fibrosis) were evaluated with APRI, FIB4, NFS, BARD, and SAFE (NPV/F1-score as model-selection criteria). RESULTS: Patients aged 47 years (median), 54.6% males, 73.7% with metabolic syndrome, and 32.9% with histological-SF were included in the study. Patients with SFvs.no-SF had higher age, aminotransferases, fasting plasma glucose, metabolic syndrome, uncontrolled diabetes, and NAFLD activity score (p < 0.001, each). ML models showed 7%-12% better discrimination than FIB-4 to detect SF. Optimised random forest (RF) yielded best NPV/F1 in overall set (0.947/0.754), test set (0.798/0.588) and validation set (0.852/0.559), as compared to FIB4 in overall set (0.744/0.499), test set (0.722/0.456), and validation set (0.806/0.507). Compared to FIB-4, RF could pick 10 times more patients with SF, reduce unnecessary referrals by 28%, and prevent missed referrals by 78%. Age, AST, ALT fasting plasma glucose, and platelet count were top features determining the SF. Sequential use of SAFE < 140 and FIB4 < 1.2 (when SAFE > 140) was next best in ruling out SF (NPV of 0.757, 0.724 and 0.827 in overall, test and validation set). CONCLUSIONS: ML with clinical, anthropometric data and simple blood investigations perform better than FIB-4 for ruling out SF in biopsy-proven Asian NAFLD/MASLD patients.

Beverage consumption in patients with metabolic syndrome and its association with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: Previous research has examined the association between coffee and tea consumption and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Preclinical studies have indicated the potential hepatoprotective properties of cocoa/chocolate. However, clinical research on the consumption of cocoa/chocolate and soft drinks and their relation to NAFLD, particularly among individuals with metabolic syndrome, is limited. This study primarily aimed to assess the association between beverage consumption and NAFLD in these patients. Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled adult patients with metabolic syndrome visited the Medicine Outpatient Department at Siriraj Hospital, Thailand, from November 2011 to January 2013. The exclusion criteria were secondary causes of hepatic steatosis, such as excessive alcohol use, viral hepatitis, or drug-induced hepatitis. Participants completed a 23-item self-administered questionnaire covering their beverage consumption habits, including type, frequency, volume, duration, and additives in drinks, namely, coffee, tea, cocoa/chocolate, and soft drinks. To ensure accurate responses, these questionnaires were supplemented by face-to-face interviews. Ultrasonography was employed early in the methodology to diagnose NAFLD. Univariable analyses were used to compare the beverage consumption behaviors of participants with and without NAFLD. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for potential confounders, including total beverage energy intake, age, anthropometric data, laboratory results, and comorbidities. Results: This study included 505 patients with metabolic syndrome. Of these, 341 (67.5%, 95%CI: 63.2-71.6%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. The consumption rates of coffee, cocoa/chocolate, and soft drinks were similar between the two groups. However, tea consumption was significantly more common in patients with NAFLD (68.3% vs. 51.8%, p < 0.001). The groups had no significant differences in caffeine intake or total energy intake from beverages. Notably, daily intake of three or more cups of coffee was correlated with a reduced prevalence of NAFLD, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14-0.89). Conclusion: This study revealed that patients with metabolic syndrome, irrespective of NAFLD status, exhibited similar patterns of beverage consumption. While no definitive associations were identified between the intake of coffee, tea, cocoa/chocolate, or soft drinks and NAFLD, a notable exception was observed. A higher consumption of coffee (≥3 cups daily) was associated with a lower prevalence of NAFLD.

Lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of all-cause mortality: An updated meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Cohort studies reported controversial results regarding the long-term prognosis of patients with lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) compared to non-lean NAFLD patients. This updated meta-analysis aimed to estimate the magnitude of the association between lean body mass index and all-cause mortality risk in NAFLD patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We systematically searched the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases from inception to March 2023 to identify observational studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality of patients with lean NAFLD versus those with non-lean, overweight, or obese NAFLD. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality were pooled using a random effects model. RESULTS: Fourteen studies with 94,181 NAFLD patients (11.3 % with lean NAFLD) and 7,443 fatal events over a median follow-up of 8.4 years (IQR, 6.6-17.4 years) were included. Patients with lean NAFLD had a higher risk of all-cause mortality than those with non-lean NAFLD (random-effects HR 1.61, 95 % CI 1.37-1.89; I2=77 %). The magnitude of this risk remained unchanged even after stratified analysis by measures of NAFLD diagnosis, study country, cohort setting, length of follow-up, adjustment with fibrosis stage/cirrhosis, and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The risk was independent of age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not alter these findings. The funnel plot and Egger's test revealed no significant publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis revealed that lean NAFLD is associated with an approximately 1.6-fold increased mortality risk. Further studies are needed to unravel the existing but complex link between lean NAFLD and an increased risk of death.

The Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score for assessing significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for noninvasive tests to identify patients with psoriasis at risk of significant liver fibrosis. OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the ability of the Steatosis-Associated Fibrosis Estimator (SAFE) score to detect significant liver fibrosis in patients with psoriasis using transient elastography (TE) as a reference. METHODS: We analysed data from 75 patients with psoriasis, including TE, SAFE score, Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Fibrosis Score (NFS). Significant liver fibrosis was defined as TE values ≥ 7.1 kPa. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Fifteen patients (20%) exhibited significant liver fibrosis. The AUROCs for the SAFE and FIB-4 scores were 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67-0.97] and 0.62 (95% CI 0.45-0.79), respectively. The SAFE score outperformed the FIB-4 Index (P = 0.01) but was comparable with the NFS (P = 0.05) in predicting significant fibrosis. Using thresholds of < 0, 0 to < 100 and ≥ 100, the SAFE score categorized 36, 24 and 15 patients into low, intermediate and high-risk groups for significant fibrosis, respectively. The negative predictive value for excluding significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of < 0 was 94.4%, and the positive predictive value for diagnosing significant fibrosis with a SAFE score of > 100 was 53.3%. The duration of psoriasis, joint involvement and methotrexate treatment did not affect the diagnostic ability of the SAFE score whereas age of the patient did. CONCLUSIONS: The SAFE score demonstrated good accuracy in assessing clinically significant fibrosis among patients with psoriasis. This score should prove valuable for risk stratification and patient management in dermatology practice.

Clinical Predictive Score for Identifying Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease in Individuals with Prediabetes Using Transient Elastography.

Scoring systems for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) in individuals with prediabetes have not been extensively explored. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of MASLD and to develop predictive tools for its detection in high cardiometabolic people with prediabetes. A cross-sectional study was conducted using baseline data from the prediabetes cohort. All participants underwent transient elastography to assess liver stiffness. MASLD was defined using a controlled attenuation parameter value > 275 dB/m and/or a liver stiffness measurement ≥ 7.0 kPa. Cases with secondary causes of hepatic steatosis were excluded. Out of 400 participants, 375 were included. The observed prevalence of MASLD in individuals with prediabetes was 35.7%. The most effective predictive model included FPG ≥ 110 mg/dL; HbA1c ≥ 6.0%; sex-specific cutoffs for HDL; ALT ≥ 30 IU/L; and BMI levels. This model demonstrated good predictive performance with an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.86). At a cutoff value of 4.5, the sensitivity was 70.7%, the specificity was 72.3%, the PPV was 58.8%, and the NPV was 81.5%. Our predictive model is practical, easy to use, and relies on common parameters. The scoring system should aid clinicians in determining when further investigations of MASLD are warranted among individuals with prediabetes, especially in settings with limited resources.

Familial clustering of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in first-degree relatives of adults with lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The heritability of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in lean individuals is undetermined. This familial aggregation study aimed to evaluate familial linkage for NAFLD and the risk of NAFLD among first-degree relatives of probands with lean NAFLD. METHODS: This study prospectively recruited cohorts of probands with lean NAFLD, probands with obese NAFLD, and lean probands with non-NAFLD and their respective first-degree relatives. A total of 257 participants were evaluated for liver steatosis, defined by the controlled attenuation parameter ≥288 dB/m2 , metabolic characteristics, and the PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and MBOAT7 polymorphisms. RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD in first-degree relatives of lean NAFLD probands (39.9%) was similar to that in the obese NAFLD group (36.9%) and was significantly higher than in lean persons without NAFLD (19.1%). First-degree relatives of probands with NAFLD who were male, and had central obesity, hypertriglyceridaemia, insulin resistance, and the PNPLA3 rs738409C>G allele had a significantly higher prevalence of NAFLD. After multivariable adjustment for gender, metabolic characteristics, and the PNPLA3 rs738409C>G allele, first-degree relatives of probands with lean NAFLD (odds ratio [OR], 5.13; 95% CI, 1.77-14.86) and obese NAFLD (OR, 3.20; 95% CI, 1.14-8.99) exhibited an increased risk of NAFLD compared with those of lean controls without NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS: Our well-phenotype cohorts revealed familial clustering of NAFLD and higher risks of NAFLD in first-degree relatives of probands with lean or obese NAFLD. The findings encourage clinicians caring for NAFLD patients to be more vigilant for NAFLD in their family members.

Bidirectional association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and fatty pancreas: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence suggests a potential relationship between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and fatty pancreas, as both conditions are associated with fat deposition in the liver and pancreas, respectively. The meta-analysis aimed to investigate the bidirectional association between NAFLD and fatty pancreas, as well as their respective effects on disease severity. METHODS: A systematic search of the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases, from inception to August 2022, was conducted to identify observational studies examining the association between NAFLD and fatty pancreas, as well as their impact on disease severity. The pooled odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Our analysis included 26 case-control or cross-sectional studies, comprising 67,803 participants. We observed a significant association between NAFLD and an increased odds of having fatty pancreas (OR, 6.18; 95% CI, 4.49-8.51; I2 = 92%). Similarly, fatty pancreas was significantly associated with an increased odds of having NAFLD (OR, 9.56; 95% CI, 5.09-17.95; I2 = 83%). Furthermore, the presence of fatty pancreas was associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of severe NAFLD based on ultrasonographic classification (95% CI, 1.46-2.10; I2 = 0%). Among NAFLD patients, the coexistence of fatty pancreas was associated with a trend towards increased odds of having non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (OR, 3.52; 95% CI, 0.65-18.93; I2 = 82%) and advanced fibrosis (OR, 2.47; 95% CI, 0.52-11.80; I2 = 76%). CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis discloses a bidirectional association between NAFLD and fatty pancreas, emphasizing the importance of understanding the intricate relationship between these two conditions.

A Novel and Simplified Score for Determining Treatment Eligibility for Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background: International guidelines for hepatitis B infection (HBV) recommend initiating antiviral treatment based on viral replication with inflammation or fibrosis. HBV viral loads and liver fibrosis measurements are not widely available in resource-limited countries. Aim: To develop a novel scoring system for the initiation of antiviral treatment in HBV-infected patients. Methods: We examined 602 and 420 treatment-naïve, HBV mono-infected patients for derivation and validation cohorts. We performed regression analysis to identify parameters associated with the initiation of antiviral treatment based on the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) guidelines. The novel score was developed based on these parameters. Results: The novel score (HePAA) was based on HBeAg (hepatitis B e-antigen), the platelet count, alanine transaminase, and albumin. The HePAA score showed excellent performance, with AUROC values of 0.926 (95% CI, 0.901-0.950) for the derivation cohort and 0.872 (95% CI, 0.833-0.910) for the validation cohort. The optimal cutoff was ≥3 points (sensitivity, 84.9%; specificity, 92.6%). The HePAA score performed better than the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria and the Risk Estimation for HCC in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) score, and it performed similarly to the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for HBV (TREAT-B) score. Conclusions: The HePAA scoring system is simple and accurate for chronic hepatitis B treatment eligibility in resource-limited countries.

Performance of Cytomegalovirus Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction Assays of Fecal and Plasma Specimens for Diagnosing Cytomegalovirus Colitis.

INTRODUCTION: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in plasma or stool may facilitate detection of CMV colitis. METHODS: This prospective study enrolled 117 patients with clinically suspected CMV colitis. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms and having increased risk of CMV infection were eligible. All participants underwent colonoscopy with tissue biopsy. Five patients underwent colonoscopy twice because of clinical recurrence, resulting in a total of 122 colonoscopies. Stool CMV-PCR and plasma CMV-PCR were performed within 7 days before/after colonoscopy. Twenty asymptomatic volunteers also underwent the same protocol. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (23.1%) of 122 colonoscopies yielded positive for CMV colitis. The sensitivity and specificity was 70.4% and 91.6% for stool CMV-PCR and 66.7% and 94.7% for plasma CMV-PCR, respectively. The sensitivity of either positive plasma or positive stool CMV-PCR was 81.5%, which is significantly higher than that of plasma CMV-PCR alone ( P = 0.045). However, positive results from both tests yielded a specificity of 95.8%, which is significantly higher than that of stool CMV-PCR alone ( P = 0.045). There was a good and significant correlation between stool CMV-PCR and plasma CMV-PCR ( r = 0.71, P < 0.01), and both tests significantly correlated with the cytomegalic cell count ( r = 0.62, P < 0.01 for stool and r = 0.64, P < 0.01 for plasma). There were no positive stool or plasma CMV-PCR assays among volunteers. DISCUSSION: The results of this study strongly suggest that the combination of stool CMV-PCR and plasma CMV-PCR can be used to confidently rule in (both positive) or rule out (both negative) a diagnosis of CMV colitis.

Prognostic Relevance of Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatohepatitis for Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background and Aims: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is prevalent in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The effect of the histologic MAFLD phenotype on long-term CHB outcomes is unknown. We performed a longitudinal study to determine the prognostic relevance of biopsy-proven hepatic steatosis and steatohepatitis for CHB patients. Methods: Clinical and laboratory data were obtained from CHB patients who underwent liver biopsy during 2002-2008 and were treated with antiviral drugs. A hepatopathologist reviewed the biopsy specimens. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of outcomes, including all-cause mortality, liver transplantation, and liver-related events. Results: In accordance with Brunt's classification, 408 patients had steatohepatitis (n=34), "steatosis but not steatohepatitis" (n=118), or "non-steatosis" (n=256). All steatohepatitis patients had features of metabolic dysfunction. Over a mean follow-up of 13.8±3.1 years, 18 patients died or underwent liver transplantation. In multivariate-adjusted analysis, steatohepatitis (aHR, 6.37; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.59-25.5) compared with non-steatosis and advanced fibrosis (aHR, 11.3; 95% CI: 1.32-96.3) compared with no fibrosis were associated with overall mortality/liver transplantation. Thirty-five patients developed 43 liver-related events, among which 32 were hepatocellular carcinoma. These events were associated with steatohepatitis (aHR, 5.55; 95% CI: 2.01-15.3) compared with non-steatosis and advanced fibrosis (aHR, 6.23; 95% CI: 1.75-22.2) compared with no fibrosis. The steatosis but not steatohepatitis group had a non-significantly higher risk of overall mortality and liver-related events. Conclusions: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis increased the risk of long-term mortality/transplantation and liver-related events in CHB patients.

"MURAL" model to predict bleeding from mural-based lesions in potential small bowel bleeding may improve diagnostic capability and decrease cost.

In potential small bowel bleeding, video capsule endoscopy (VCE) is excellent to detect mucosal lesions, while mural-based lesions are better detected by computed tomography enterography (CTE). A predictive tool to identify mural-based lesions should guide selecting investigations. In this retrospective study, we developed and validated the "MURAL" model based on logistic regression to predicts bleeding from mural-based lesions. Cost-effectiveness analysis comparing diagnostic strategy among VCE, CTE, and MURAL model was performed. Of 296 patients, 196 and 100 patients were randomly included in the derivative and validation cohorts, respectively. The MURAL model comprises 5 parameters: age, presence of atherosclerosis, chronic kidney disease, antiplatelet use, and serum albumin level. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.778 and 0.821 for the derivative and validation cohorts, respectively. At a cutoff value of 24.2%, the model identified mural-based lesions with 70% sensitivity and 83% specificity in the validation cohort. Cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that application of the MURAL model demonstrated a comparable missed lesion rate but had a lower missed tumor rate, and lower cost compared to VCE strategy. The model for predicting mural-based lesions provide some guidance in investigative decision-making, which may improve diagnostic efficiency and reduce costs.

Fatty Pancreas: Linking Pancreas Pathophysiology to Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Currently, scientific interest has focused on fat accumulation outside of subcutaneous adipose tissue. As various imaging modalities are available to quantify fat accumulation in particular organs, fatty pancreas has become an important area of research over the last decade. The pancreas has an essential role in regulating glucose metabolism and insulin secretion by responding to changes in nutrients under various metabolic circumstances. Mounting evidence has revealed that fatty pancreas is linked to impaired ß-cell function and affects insulin secretion with metabolic consequences of impaired glucose metabolism, type 2 diabetes, and metabolic syndrome. It has been shown that there is a connection between fatty pancreas and the presence and severity of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which has become the predominant cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. Therefore, it is necessary to better understand the pathogenic mechanisms of fat accumulation in the pancreas and its relationship with NAFLD. This review summarizes the epidemiology, diagnosis, risk factors, and metabolic consequences of fatty pancreas and discusses its pathophysiology links to NAFLD.

Development and validation of a 90-day mortality prediction model following endobiliary drainage in patients with unresectable malignant biliary obstruction.

Background: Palliative endobiliary drainage is the mainstay treatment for unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). Despite optimal drainage, the survival benefit is arguable. This study aimed to identify factors predicting post-endoscopic drainage mortality and develop and validate a mortality prediction model. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data for 451 patients with unresectable pancreatobiliary cancers undergoing first endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP)-guided endobiliary stent placement between 2007 and 2017. We randomly assigned patients in a 3:1 fashion into a derivation cohort (n=339) and validation cohort (n=112). Predictors for 90-day mortality post-stenting were identified from the derivation cohort. A prediction model was subsequently developed and verified with the validation cohort. Results: The overall 90-day mortality rate of the derivation cohort was 46.9%, and the mean age was 64.2 years. The 2 most common diagnoses were cholangiocarcinoma (53.4%) and pancreatic cancer (35.4%). In all, 34.2% had liver metastasis. The median total bilirubin (TB) level was 19.2 mg/dL, and the mean serum albumin was 3.2 g/dL. A metallic stent was used for 64.6% of the patients, and the median stent patency time was 63 days. A total of 70.8% had TB improvement of more than 50% within 2 weeks after stenting, and 14.5% were eligible for chemotherapy. Intrahepatic obstruction (OR=5.69; P=0.023), stage IV cancer (OR=3.01; P=0.001), pre-endoscopic serum albumin (OR=0.48; P=0.001), TB improvement within 2 weeks after stenting (OR=0.57; P=0.036), and chemotherapy after ERCP (OR=0.11; P<0.001) were associated with 90-day mortality after stenting. The prediction model was developed to identify the risk of death within 90 days post-stent placement. The AUROC was 0.76 and 0.75 in derivation and validation cohorts. Patients with a score ≥ 1.40 had a high likelihood of death, whereas those scoring < -1.50 had a low likelihood of death. Additionally, a score ≥ 0.58 provided a 75.2% probability of death, which highlights the usability of the model. Conclusions: This study proposes a useful validated prediction model to forecast the 90-day mortality of unresectable MBO patients after stenting. The model permits physicians to stratify the death risk and may be helpful to provide a proper palliative strategy.

Long-Term Outcomes Associated with NAFLD, ASCVD, and All-Cause Mortality of Patients with Metabolic Syndrome.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) patients are at higher risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD), and death. Given a lack of longitudinal data on patients with MetS in Southeast Asia, this study investigated the incidence of NAFLD and ASCVD and the all-cause mortality rate during a 10-year follow-up of Thai patients with MetS. Retrospective data were collected on 496 MetS patients with ultrasonography or transient elastography results. The patients had been followed up continuously by a university hospital between October 2011 and November 2021, and their mean age was 61.0 ± 10.9 years. Patients with secondary causes of hepatic steatosis were excluded. Cox proportional hazards regression models with time-varying covariates were adopted. During the 10-year follow-up, 17 patients (11.2%) developed NAFLD, and 27 (6.4%) developed ASCVD. The NAFLD and ASCVD incidence rates were 21.7 and 10.9 events per 1000 person years, respectively. The mortality rate was 14.2 deaths per 1000 person years. The prevalence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, ASCVD, NAFLD, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis at baseline was significantly higher in the nonsurvival group. The NAFLD incidence and mortality rate of patients with MetS were lower than those in previous studies. Intensive, holistic, and continuous care should be considered for better outcomes.

Development and validation of a risk score for predicting clinical success after endobiliary stenting for malignant biliary obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic drainage is the primary treatment for unresectable malignant biliary obstruction (MBO). This study developed and validated a pre-endoscopic predictive score for clinical success after stent placement. METHODS: Patients with unresectable MBO undergoing ERCP-guided endobiliary stent placement between 2007 and 2017 were randomly divided into derivation (n = 383) and validation (n = 128) cohorts. To develop the risk score, clinical parameters were built by logistic regression to predict (1) ≥ 50% total bilirubin (TB) resolution within 2 weeks and (2) bilirubin normalization (TB level <1.2 mg/dL) within 6 weeks following stenting. The scoring scheme was applied to the validation cohort to test its performance. RESULTS: A ≥ 50% TB resolution within 2 weeks was shown in 70.5% of cases. The risk scoring scheme had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.64-0.76) and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.57-0.77) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Thirty-one percent had TB normalization within 6 weeks after stenting. Significant predictors for TB normalization were extrahepatic biliary obstruction (odds ratio [OR] = 2.35), pre-endoscopic TB level (OR = 0.88), and stent type (OR = 0.42). The AUROC of a risk score for predicting TB normalization within 6 weeks was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.67-0.86) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. A score > 1.30 yielded a specificity of 98% and a positive predictive value of 84% for predicting TB normalization. A score of < -4.18 provided a sensitivity of 80%-90% and a negative predictive value of 90%-93% for predicting the absence of TB normalization. CONCLUSIONS: The pre-endoscopic scoring system comprising biliary obstruction level, liver biochemistry, and type of stent provides prediction indices for TB normalization within 6 weeks after stenting. This scheme may help endoscopists identify patients with unresectable MBO suited for palliative stenting.

Muscle strength, but not body mass index, is associated with mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Whether adiposity and muscle function are associated with mortality risk in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unknown. We examine the independent and combined associations of body mass index (BMI) and muscle strength with overall mortality in individuals with NAFLD. METHODS: We analysed data from 7083 participants with NAFLD in the Thai National Health Examination Survey and their linked mortality. NAFLD was defined using a lipid accumulation product in participants without significant alcohol intake. Poor muscle strength was defined by handgrip strength of <28 kg for men and <18 kg for women, according to the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia. The Cox proportional-hazards model was constructed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for overall mortality. RESULTS: The mean age was 49.3 ± 13.2 years, and 69.4% of subjects were women. According to the Asian-specific criteria, 1276 individuals (18.0%) were classified as lean NAFLD (BMI 18.5-22.9 kg/m2 ), 1465 (20.7%) were overweight NAFLD (BMI 23-24.9 kg/m2 ), and 4342 (61.3%) were obese NAFLD (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 ). Over 60 432 person-years, 843 participants died. In Cox models adjusted for physiologic, lifestyle, and comorbid factors, individuals with lean NAFLD [aHR 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.95-1.48; P = 0.138] and subjects with overweight NAFLD (aHR 1.28, 95% CI: 0.89-1.84; P = 0.158) had mortality risk estimates similar to their obese counterparts, whereas participants with lower handgrip strength had significantly higher mortality risk than those with higher handgrip strength in men and women. Compared with obese individuals with the highest handgrip strength, elevated mortality risk was observed among men (aHR 3.21, 95% CI: 1.35-7.62, P = 0.011) and women (aHR 2.22, 95% CI, 1.25-3.93, P = 0.009) with poor muscle strength. Among men, poor muscle strength was associated with increased risk of mortality with obese NAFLD (aHR 3.94, 95% CI, 1.38-11.3, P = 0.013), overweight NAFLD (aHR 2.93, 95% CI, 1.19-7.19, P = 0.021), and lean NAFLD (aHR 2.78, 95% CI, 0.93-8.32, P = 0.065). Among women, poor muscle strength was associated with increased mortality risk with obese NAFLD (aHR 2.25, 95% CI, 1.06-4.76, P = 0.036), overweight NAFLD (aHR 1.69, 95% CI, 0.81-3.51, P = 0.153), and lean NAFLD (aHR 2.47, 95% CI, 1.06-5.73, P = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort of individuals with NAFLD, muscle strength, but not BMI, was independently associated with long-term overall mortality. Measuring handgrip strength can be a simple, non-invasive risk stratification approach for overall mortality in patients with NAFLD.

Correction: The diagnostic performance of combined conventional cytology with smears and cell block preparation obtained from endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine needle aspiration for intra-abdominal mass lesions.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263982.].