The 30-Year Influence of a Regional Consortium on Quality Improvement in Cardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: The Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study Group (NNECDSG) was founded in 1987 as a regional consortium to improve cardiovascular quality in Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. We sought to assess the longitudinal impact of the NNECDSG on quality and cost of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) during the past 30 years. METHODS: Patients undergoing isolated CABG at 5 medical centers from 1987-2017 were retrospectively reviewed (n = 67,942). They were divided into 4 time periods: 1987-1999 (n = 36,885), 2000-2005 (n = 14,606), 2006-2011(n = 8470), and 2012-2017 (n = 7981). The first period was the time the NNECDSG initiated a series of quality improvement initiatives including data feedback, quality improvement training, process mapping, and site visits. RESULTS: Throughout the 4 time intervals, there was a consistent decline in in-hospital mortality, from 3.4% to 1.8% despite an increase in predicted risk of mortality (P < .001), and a significant decline in in-hospital morbidity, including return to the operating room for bleeding, acute kidney injury, mediastinitis, and low output failure (P < .001). Median length of stay decreased from 7 to 5 days (P < .001), which translated into potential savings of $82,722,023. There was a decrease in use of red blood cells from 3.1 units to 2.6 units per patient in the most current time, which translated into potential savings of $1,985,456. CONCLUSIONS: By using collaborative quality improvement initiatives, the NNECDSG has succeeded in significant, sustained improvements in quality and cost for CABG during the past 30 years. These data support the utility of a regional consortium in improving quality.

Limited blood transfusion does not impact survival in octogenarians undergoing cardiac operations.

BACKGROUND: We previously reported that transfusion of 1 to 2 units of red blood cells (RBCs) confers a 16% increased hazard of late death after cardiac surgical treatment. We explored whether a similar effect existed among octogenarians. METHODS: We enrolled 17,026 consecutive adult patients undergoing cardiac operations from 2001 to 2008 in northern New England. Patients receiving more than 2 units of RBCs or undergoing emergency operations were excluded. Early (to 6 months) and late (to 3 years, among those surviving longer than 6 months) survival was confirmed using the Social Security Death Index. We estimated the relationship between RBCs and survival, and any interaction by age (<80 years versus ≥80 years) or procedure. We calculated the adjusted hazard ratio (HR), and plotted adjusted survival curves. RESULTS: Patients receiving RBCs had more comorbidities irrespective of age. Patients 80 years of age or older underwent transfusion more often than patients younger than 80 years (51% versus 30%; p<0.001). There was no evidence of an interaction by age or procedure (p>0.05). Among patients younger than 80 years, RBCs significantly increased a patient's risk of early death [HR, 2.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47, 2.80] but not late death 1.21 (95%CI, 0.88, 1.67). RBCs did not increase the risk of early [HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 0.84, 2.56] or late (HR, 0.92 95% CI, 0.50, 1.69) death in patients 80 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Octogenarians receive RBCs more often than do younger patients. Although transfusion of 1 to 2 units of RBCs increases the risk of early death in patients younger than 80 years, this effect was not present among octogenarians. There was no significant effect of RBCs in late death in either age group.

Variability in surgeons' perioperative practices may influence the incidence of low-output failure after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative low-output failure (LOF) is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. We sought to understand which pre- and intra-operative factors contribute to postoperative LOF and to what degree the surgeon may influence rates of LOF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified 11 838 patients undergoing nonemergent, isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass by 32 surgeons at 8 centers in northern New England from 2001 to 2009. Our cohort included patients with preoperative ejection fractions >40%. Patients with preoperative intraaortic balloon pumps were excluded. LOF was defined as the need for ≥2 inotropes at 48 hours, an intra- or post-operative intraaortic balloon pumps, or return to cardiopulmonary bypass (for hemodynamic reasons). Case volume varied across the 32 surgeons (limits, 80-766; median, 344). The overall rate of LOF was 4.3% (return to cardiopulmonary bypass, 2.6%; intraaortic balloon pumps, 1.0%; inotrope usage, 0.8%; combination, 1.0%). The predicted risk of LOF did not differ across surgeons, P=0.79, and the observed rates varied from 1.1% to 10.2%, P<0.001. Patients operated by low-rate surgeons had shorter clamp and bypass times, antegrade cardioplegia, longer maximum intervals between cardioplegia doses, lower cardioplegia volume per anastomosis or minute of ischemic time, and less hot-shot use. Patients operated on by higher LOF surgeons had higher rates of postoperative acute kidney injury. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of LOF significantly varied across surgeons and could not be explained solely by patient case mix, suggesting that variability in perioperative practices influences risk of LOF.

Long-term outcomes of endoscopic vein harvesting after coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Use of endoscopic saphenous vein harvesting has developed into a routine surgical approach at many cardiothoracic surgical centers. The association between this technique and long-term morbidity and mortality has recently been called into question. The present report describes the use of open versus endoscopic vein harvesting and risk of mortality and repeat revascularization in northern New England during a time period (2001 to 2004) in which both techniques were being performed. METHODS AND RESULTS: From 2001 to 2004, 8542 patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting procedures, 52.5% with endoscopic vein harvesting. Surgical discretion dictated the vein harvest approach. The main outcomes were death and repeat revascularization (percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting) within 4 years of the index admission. The use of endoscopic vein harvesting increased from 34% in 2001 to 75% in 2004. In general, patients undergoing endoscopic vein harvesting had greater disease burden. Endoscopic vein harvesting was associated with an increased adjusted risk of bleeding requiring a return to the operating room (2.4 versus 1.7; P=0.03) but a decreased risk of leg wound infections (0.2 versus 1.1; P<0.001). Use of endoscopic vein harvesting was associated with a significant reduction in long-term mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.60 to 0.92) but a nonsignificant increased risk of repeat revascularization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74). Similar results were obtained in propensity-stratified analysis. CONCLUSIONS: During 2001 to 2004 in northern New England, the use of endoscopic vein harvesting was not associated with harm. There was a nonsignificant increase in repeat revascularization, and survival was not decreased.

Cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury: a comparison of two consensus criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac surgery-related acute kidney injury has short- and long-term impact on patients' risk for further morbidity and mortality. Consensus statements have yielded criteria--such as the risk, injury, failure, loss, and end-stage kidney disease (RIFLE) criteria, and the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria--to define the type and consequence of acute kidney injury. We sought to estimate the ability of both the RIFLE and and AKIN criteria to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in the setting of cardiac surgery. METHODS: Data were collected on 25,086 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in Northern New England from January 2001 to December 2007, excluding 339 patients on preoperative dialysis. The AKIN and RIFLE criteria were used to classify patients postoperatively, using the last preoperative and the highest postoperative serum creatinine. We compared the diagnostic properties of both criteria, and calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Acute kidney injury occurred in 30% of patients using the AKIN criteria and in 31% of patients using the RIFLE criteria. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for in-hospital mortality estimated by AKIN and RIFLE criteria were 0.79 (95% confidence interval: 0.77 to 0.80) and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.76 to 0.80), respectively (p = 0.369). CONCLUSIONS: The AKIN and RIFLE criteria are accurate early predictors of mortality. The high incidence of cardiac surgery postoperative acute kidney injury should prompt the use of either AKIN or RIFLE criteria to identify patients at risk and to stimulate institutional measures that target acute kidney injury as a quality improvement initiative.

Long-term survival of the very elderly undergoing aortic valve surgery.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of the very elderly are undergoing aortic valve procedures. We describe the short- and long-term survivorship for this cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a cohort study of 7584 consecutive patients undergoing open aortic valve surgery without (51.1%; AVR) or with (48.9%; AVR + CABG) concomitant coronary artery bypass graft surgery between November 10, 1987 through June 30, 2006. Patient records were linked to the Social Security Administration's Death Master File. Survivorship was stratified by age and concomitant CABG surgery. During 39 835 person-years of follow-up, there were 2877 deaths. Among AVR, there were 3304 patients <80 years of age, 419 patients 80 to 84 years, and 156 patients > or =85 years (24 patients >90 years). Among AVR+CABG patients, there were 2890 patients <80 years of age, 577 patients 80 to 84 years, and 238 patients > or =85 years (22 patients >90 years). Median survivorship for patients undergoing isolated AVR was 11.5 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), 6.2 years (> or =85 years); for patients undergoing AVR+CABG, median survivorship was 9.4 years (<80 years), 6.8 years (80 to 84 years), and 7.1 years (> or =85 years). Among both procedures, adjusted survivorship was significantly different across strata of age (P<0.001). These findings are similar to life expectancy of the general population from actuarial tables: 80 to 84 years (7 years) and > or =85 years (5 years). CONCLUSIONS: Survivorship among octogenarians is favorable, with more than half the patients surviving more than 6 years after their surgery. Concomitant CABG surgery does not diminish median survivorship among patients >80 years of age.

The association of perioperative red blood cell transfusions and decreased long-term survival after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to red blood cell (RBC) transfusions has been associated with increased mortality after cardiac surgery. We examined long-term survival for cardiac surgical patients who received one or two RBC units during index hospitalization. METHODS: Nine thousand seventy-nine consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft, valve, or coronary artery bypass graft/valve surgery at eight centers in northern New England during 2001-2004 were examined after exclusions. A probabilistic match between the regional registry and the Social Security Administration's Death Master File determined mortality through June 30, 2006. Cox Proportional Hazard and propensity methods were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. RESULTS: Thirty-six percent of patients (n = 3254) were exposed to one or two RBC units. Forty-three percent of RBCs were given intraoperatively, 56% in the postoperative period and 1% were preoperative. Patients transfused were more likely to be anemic, older, smaller, female and with more comorbid illness. Survival was significantly decreased for all patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs during hospitalization for cardiac surgery compared with those who received none (P < 0.001). After adjustment for patient and disease characteristics, patients exposed to 1 or 2 U of RBCs had a 16% higher long-term mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.01-1.34, P = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to 1 or 2 U of RBCs was associated with a 16% increased hazard of decreased survival after cardiac surgery.

Appropriateness of coronary artery bypass graft surgery performed in northern New England.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to assess the concordance between the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and the American Heart Association (AHA) 2004 Guideline Update for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery and actual clinical practice. BACKGROUND: There is substantial geographic variability in the population-based rates of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) procedures, and in recent years, there have been several public concerns about unnecessary cardiac care. The actual rate of inappropriate cardiac procedures is unknown. METHODS: We evaluated 4,684 consecutive isolated coronary artery bypass graft procedures performed in 2004 and 2005 in northern New England. Our regional registry data were used to categorize patients into clinical subgroups. Detailed clinical criteria were then used to categorize procedures within these subgroups as class I (useful and effective), class IIa (evidence favors usefulness), class IIb (evidence less well established), and class III (not useful or effective). RESULTS: Among these 4,684 procedures, we were able to classify 99.6% (n = 4,665). The majority of procedures were class I (87.7%). Class II procedures totaled 10.9%. The remaining 1.4% of procedures were class III. CONCLUSIONS: In this regional study, we found that 98.6% of CABG procedures that could be classified were considered to be appropriate. In these data, actual clinical practice closely follows the recommendations of the 2004 ACC/AHA guidelines for CABG surgery.

Long-term survival after cardiac surgery is predicted by estimated glomerular filtration rate.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor of in-hospital mortality. However, in patients with normal renal function before CABG, acute kidney injury develops after the procedure, making postoperative renal function assessment necessary for evaluation. Postoperative eGFR and its association with long-term survival have not been well studied. METHODS: We studied 13,593 consecutive CABG patients in northern New England from 2001 to 2006. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the Social Security Association Death Master File to assess long-term survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by established categories of postoperative eGFR (90 or greater, 60 to 89, 30 to 59, 15 to 29, and less than 15 mL x min(-1) x 1.73 m(-2)). RESULTS: Median follow-up was 2.8 years (mean, 2.7; range, 0 to 5.5). Patients with moderate to severe acute kidney injury (less than 60) after CABG had significantly worse survival than patients with little or no acute kidney injury (90 or greater). CONCLUSIONS: Patients having moderate to severe acute kidney injury after CABG surgery had worse 5-year survival compared with patients who had normal or near-normal renal function.

Long-term survival of the very elderly undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of the very elderly are undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG). Short-term results have been studied, but few data are available concerning long-term outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of 54,397 consecutive patients undergoing primary, isolated CABG surgery between July 1, 1987, and June 30, 2006. Patient records were linked to the Social Security Administration's Death Master File. RESULTS: During 390,871 person-years of follow-up, there were 17,352 deaths. There were 51,149 patients younger than 80 years, 2,661 patients aged 80 to 84 years, and 587 patients aged 85 or more years who underwent isolated CABG surgery. Crude in-hospital survival was 97.2% for those less than 80 years, 98.3% for those aged 80 to 84 years, and 87.6% for those aged 85 or more years. Patients aged 80 or more years were more likely to be female (46.9%), more likely to be emergency priority (10.2%), and more likely to have associated comorbidities than younger patients. Patients aged 85 or more years were more likely to have intraoperative and postoperative morbid events. Among patients younger than 80, median survival was 14.4 years with an annual incidence of death of 4.2%. Among patients 80 to 84 years old, median survival time was 7.4 years, with an annual incidence rate of death of 10.3%. Among patients aged 85 or more years, median survival was 5.8 years, and the annual incidence of death was 13.7%. CONCLUSIONS: Although very elderly CABG patients have more comorbidities and more acute presentation than younger patients and their in-hospital mortality rate is high, their long-term survival is surprisingly good.

Perioperative increases in serum creatinine are predictive of increased 90-day mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

BACKGROUND: Impaired renal function after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is a key risk factor for in-hospital mortality. However, perioperative increases in serum creatinine and the association with mortality has not been well-studied. We assessed the hypothesis that perioperative increases in creatinine are associated with increased 90-day mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 1391 patients in northern New England undergoing CABG in 2001 and evaluated preoperative and postoperative creatinine. Patients with preoperative dialysis were excluded. Data were linked to the National Death Index to assess 90-day survival. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank techniques were used. Patients were stratified by percent increase in creatinine from baseline: <25%, 25% to 49%, 50% to 99%, > or =100%. We assessed 90-day survival and calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for creatinine groups, adjusting for age and sex. Patients with the largest creatinine increases (50% to 99% or > or =100%) had significantly higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with a smaller increase (<50%; P<0.001). Adjusted HR and 95% CI confirmed patients in the higher 2 groups had an increased risk of mortality compared with the <25% (referent); however, the 25% to 49% group was not different from the referent: 1.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 4.44), 6.57 (95% CI, 3.03 to 14.27), and 22.10 (95% CI, 11.25 to 43.39). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with large creatinine increases (> or = 50%) after CABG surgery have a higher 90-day mortality compared with patients with small increases. Efforts to identify patients with impaired renal function and to preserve renal function before cardiac surgery may yield benefits for patients in the future.

Long-term survival of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Long-term survival is less well understood. The present study examined the effect of COPD on survival after CABG. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective study of 33,137 consecutive isolated CABG patients between 1992 and 2001 in northern New England. Records were linked to the National Death Index for long-term mortality data. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). Patients were stratified by: no comorbidities (none), COPD, COPD plus comorbidities, and other comorbidities with no COPD. There were 131,434 person years of follow-up and 5344 deaths. The overall incidence rate (deaths per 100 person years) was 4.1. By group, rates were: 2.1 (none), 4.0 (COPD alone), 5.5 (other), and 9.4 (COPD plus; log rank P<0.001). After adjustment, survival with COPD alone was worse compared with none (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.6 to 2.1; P<0.001). Patients with other comorbidities compared with none had even worse survival (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 2.1 to 2.4; P<0.001). Patients with COPD plus other comorbidities compared with none had the worst long-term survival (HR, 3.6; 95% CI, 3.3 to 3.9; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with only COPD had significantly reduced long-term survival compared with patient with no comorbidities. Patients with COPD and > or = 1 other comorbidity had the worst survival rate when compared with all of the other groups.

Effect of diabetes and associated conditions on long-term survival after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

BACKGROUND: The effects of diabetes on short-term results of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery are known, but less is known about the long-term effects of diabetes and diabetic-related sequelae for patients undergoing this surgery. We studied the 10-year survival of nondiabetic and diabetic patients undergoing CABG surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: A prospective regional cohort study was conducted of 36,641 consecutive isolated CABG patients in northern New England from 1992 through 2001. Patient records were linked to the National Death Index to assess mortality. There were 154,140 person-years of follow-up and 5779 deaths. Kaplan-Meier techniques were used. Survival was stratified into three categories: no diabetes, diabetes without peripheral vascular disease and renal failure, and diabetes with peripheral vascular disease and/or renal failure. The overall annual incidence rate of death was 3.7 deaths per 100 person-years. Annual incidence rates for nondiabetic subjects and diabetic subjects were similar: 3.1 deaths per 100 person-years and 4.4 deaths per 100 person-years, respectively. The annual incidence rate for diabetic subjects with renal failure, peripheral vascular disease, or both was 9.4 deaths per 100 person-years. The log-rank test showed that the survival curves were significantly different (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients that have diabetes without the sequelae of renal failure and/or peripheral vascular disease have long-term survival similar to but slightly less than patients without diabetes who undergo CABG surgery. Survival of CABG surgery patients with diabetes is greatly affected by associated comorbidities of peripheral vascular disease and renal failure. This knowledge may help guide the patient as well as the cardiologist and cardiac surgeon in making appropriate decisions in these critically ill patients.

10-year follow-up of patients with and without mediastinitis.

Mediastinitis is a dreaded complication of CABG surgery. Short-term outcomes have been described, but there have been only a few long-term studies. We examined the survival of patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery between 1992 and 2001. Mediastinitis was identified during the index admission. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI 95%). Among 36,078 consecutive patients, there were 5749 deaths during 148,319 person years of follow-up. There were 418 cases of mediastinitis (1.16%). The incidence of death was 11.15 per 100 person/years with mediastinitis and 3.81 deaths/100 person years without. (P < 0.001). We also examined the mortality rates of patients who survived at least 6 months after their CABG surgery. Patients with mediastinitis had an incidence rate of 5.70 deaths per 100 person/years while those without had a rate of 2.66 deaths per 100 person/years (P < 0.001). After adjustment for baseline differences in patient and disease characteristics, the hazard ratio was 2.12 (CI95% = 1.86,2.58; P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios for patients who survived 6 months postsurgery was 1.70 (CI95% = 1.36,2.13; P < 0.001). Mediastinitis is associated with a marked increase in both acute and long-term mortality rates.

Multivariable prediction of in-hospital mortality associated with aortic and mitral valve surgery in Northern New England.

BACKGROUND: Predicting risk for aortic and mitral valve surgery is important both for informed consent of patients and objective review of surgical outcomes. Development of reliable prediction rules requires large data sets with appropriate risk factors that are available before surgery. METHODS: Data from eight Northern New England Medical Centers in the period January 1991 through December 2001 were analyzed on 8943 heart valve surgery patients aged 30 years and older. There were 5793 cases of aortic valve replacement and 3150 cases of mitral valve surgery (repair or replacement). Logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between risk factors and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: In the multivariable analysis, 11 variables in the aortic model (older age, lower body surface area, prior cardiac operation, elevated creatinine, prior stroke, New York Heart Association [NYHA] class IV, congestive heart failure [CHF], atrial fibrillation, acuity, year of surgery, and concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting) and 10 variables in the mitral model (female sex, older age, diabetes, coronary artery disease, prior cerebrovascular accident, elevated creatinine, NYHA class IV, CHF, acuity, and valve replacement) remained independent predictors of the outcome. The mathematical models were highly significant predictors of the outcome, in-hospital mortality, and the results are in general agreement with those of others. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the aortic model was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 0.77), and for the mitral model, 0.79 (95% CI, 0.76 to 0.81). The goodness-of-fit statistic for the aortic model was chi(2) [8 df] = 11.88, p = 0.157, and for the mitral model it was chi(2) [8 df] = 5.45, p = 0.708. CONCLUSIONS: We present results and methods for use in day-to-day practice to calculate patient-specific in-hospital mortality after aortic and mitral valve surgery, by the logistic equation for each model or a simple scoring system with a look-up table for mortality rate.

Determination of etiologic mechanisms of strokes secondary to coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Current research focused on stroke in the setting of coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery has missed important opportunities for additional understanding by failing to consider the range of different stroke mechanisms. We developed and implemented a classification system to identify the distribution and timing of stroke subtypes. METHODS: We conducted a regional study of 388 patients with the diagnosis of stroke after isolated CABG surgery in northern New England from 1992 to 2000. Data were collected on patient and disease characteristics, intraoperative and postoperative care, and outcomes. Stroke etiology was classified into 1 of the following: hemorrhage, thromboembolic (embolic, thrombotic, lacunar), hypoperfusion, other (subtype not listed above), multiple (>or=2 competing mechanisms), or unclassified (unknown mechanism). The reliability of the classification system was determined by percent agreement and kappa statistics. RESULTS: Embolic strokes accounted for 62.1% of strokes, followed by multiple etiologies (10.1%), hypoperfusion (8.8%), lacunar (3.1%), thrombotic (1.0%), and hemorrhage (1.0%). There were 54 strokes with unknown etiology (13.9%). There were no strokes classified as "other." Nearly 45% (105/235) of the embolic and 56% (18/32) of hypoperfusion strokes occurred within the first postoperative day. CONCLUSIONS: We used a locally developed classification system to determine the etiologic mechanism of 388 strokes secondary to CABG surgery. The principal etiologic mechanism was embolic, followed by stroke having multiple mechanisms and hypoperfusion. Regardless of mechanism, strokes predominantly occurred within the first postoperative day.

Intra- and postoperative predictors of stroke after coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a devastating complication of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. An individual's risk of stroke is based in part on preoperative characteristics but also on intra- and postoperative factors. We developed a risk prediction model for stroke based on factors in intra- and postoperative care, after adjusting for a patient's preoperative risk. METHODS: We conducted a regional prospective study of 11,825 consecutive patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery surgery from 1996 to 2001. Data were collected on patient and disease characteristics, intra- and postoperative care and course, and outcomes. Stroke was defined as "a new focal neurologic deficit which appears and is still at least partially evident more than 24 hours after its onset." Logistic regression identified significant predictors of stroke. RESULTS: The incidence of stroke was 1.5%. The regression model significantly predicted the occurrence of stroke. As compared with cardiopulmonary bypass for less than 90 minutes, cardiopulmonary bypass for 90 to 113 minutes, odds ratio = 1.59, p = 0.022), cardiopulmonary bypass for 114 minutes or more (odds ratio = 2.36, p < 0.001), atrial fibrillation (odds ratio = 1.82, p < 0.001), and prolonged inotrope use (odds ratio = 2.59, p = 0.001) significantly improved our ability to predict stroke. Nearly 75% of all strokes occurred among the 90% of patients at low or medium preoperative risk. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of factors associated with intra- and postoperative care and course significantly improved the prediction model. Most strokes occurred among patients at low or medium preoperative risk, suggesting that many of these strokes may be preventable. Reduction in stroke risk may require modifications in intra- and postoperative care and course.

Development and validation of a prediction model for strokes after coronary artery bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: A prospective study of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) was conducted to identify patient and disease factors related to the development of a perioperative stroke. A preoperative risk prediction model was developed and validated based on regionally collected data. METHODS: We performed a regional observational study of 33,062 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG surgery in northern New England between 1992 and 2001. The regional stroke rate was 1.61% (532 strokes). We developed a preoperative stroke risk prediction model using logistic regression analysis, and validated the model using bootstrap resampling techniques. We assessed the model's fit, discrimination, and stability. RESULTS: The final regression model included the following variables: age, gender, presence of diabetes, presence of vascular disease, renal failure or creatinine greater than or equal to 2 mg/dL, ejection fraction less than 40%, and urgent or emergency. The model significantly predicted (chi(2) [14 d.f.] = 258.72, p < 0.0001) the occurrence of stroke. The correlation between the observed and expected strokes was 0.99. The risk prediction model discriminated well, with an area under the relative operating characteristic curve of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.72). In addition, the model had acceptable internal validity and stability as seen by bootstrap techniques. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a robust risk prediction model for stroke using seven readily obtainable preoperative variables. The risk prediction model performs well, and enables a clinician to estimate rapidly and accurately a CABG patient's preoperative risk of stroke.

Brachial gradient in cardiac surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: Review of the clinical and therapeutic implications of difference in arm blood pressure detected preoperatively in patients having heart surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of 53 patients (Group 1) with gradient and comparison with a group of 175 patients without gradient (Group 2). All patients had preoperative carotid duplex interrogation and operative epiaortic scanning. There was no statistical difference regarding age, sex, status, redo, diabetes, ejection fraction, prior myocardial infarct, hyperlipidemia, or creatinine level. Risks factors for Group 1 included peripheral vascular disease (P<0.0001) and cerebrovascular symptoms (P=0.0196). Severe carotid disease (>80% stenosis) was seen in 41.5% of Group 1 and 13.7% of Group 2 (P<0.0001) patients. Severe atherosclerotic proximal aortic disease was found in 39.6% of Group 1 and 10.8% of Group 2 (P<0.0001) patients. There were 7 patients with strokes in Group 1 (13.20%) and 9 in Group 2 (5.14%; P=0.06). Four patients died in Group 1 (7.54%) and 10 died in Group 2 (5.71%; P=0.74). CONCLUSION: Brachial gradient is a marker for increased carotid and proximal atherosclerotic aortic disease. Preoperative arch study at the time of catheterization is strongly recommended, as well as preoperative carotid Doppler and operative epiaortic ultrasound.

Long-term survival of dialysis patients after coronary bypass grafting.

BACKGROUND: Dialysis patients are undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with increasing frequency. The long-term effect of preoperative dialysis-dependent renal failure on mortality after CABG has not been well studied. METHODS: We conducted a prospective regional cohort study of 15,574 consecutive patients undergoing isolated CABG in northern New England from 1992 to 1997. Patient records were linked to the National Death Index to assess mortality. Five-year survival and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated. RESULTS: During 32,589 person-years of follow-up 1298 deaths were recorded. Renal failure was present in 283 patients (1.8%), and 67.8% of patients with renal failure also had diabetes or peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The annual death rate was 3.8% for nonrenal failure patients, 16.9% for all renal failure patients, 7.7% for renal failure patients without diabetes or PVD, and 23.0% for renal failure patients with diabetes or PVD. Five-year survival was 83.5% for nonrenal failure patients, 55.8% for all renal failure patients, 78.5% for renal failure patients without diabetes or PVD, and 42.2% for renal failure patients with diabetes or PVD. After adjustment for differences in base line patient and disease characteristics, renal failure patients without diabetes or PVD had a statistically nonsignificant 57% increase rate of death compared with those without renal failure; renal failure patients with diabetes or PVD had more than a fourfold increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for other risk factors, renal failure remains a highly significant predictor of decreased long-term survival in CABG patients. Patients with renal failure plus diabetes or PVD are at especially high risk of death.