The interplay between susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness control the timing and size of an emerging seasonal influenza wave in England.

Relaxing social distancing measures and reduced level of influenza over the last two seasons may lead to a winter 2022 influenza wave in England. We used an established model for influenza transmission and vaccination to evaluate the rolled out influenza immunisation programme over October to December 2022. Specifically, we explored how the interplay between pre-season population susceptibility and influenza vaccine efficacy control the timing and the size of a possible winter influenza wave. Our findings suggest that susceptibility affects the timing and the height of a potential influenza wave, with higher susceptibility leading to an earlier and larger influenza wave while vaccine efficacy controls the size of the peak of the influenza wave. With pre-season susceptibility higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, under the planned vaccine programme an early influenza epidemic wave is possible, its size dependent on vaccine effectiveness against the circulating strain. If pre-season susceptibility is low and similar to pre-COVID levels, the planned influenza vaccine programme with an effective vaccine could largely suppress a winter 2022 influenza outbreak in England.

Determining the acceptability of testing contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases to improve secondary case ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: UK asymptomatic contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases are not routinely tested for SARS-CoV-2. Testing contacts may improve case ascertainment and reduce onward transmission. This study investigated the acceptability of SARS-CoV-2 testing among contacts of confirmed cases as an integral part of the contact-tracing process. METHODS: A cross-sectional descriptive survey of case contacts was conducted in the UK. All contacts who completed a telephone call with the NHS Test and Trace Agile Lighthouse team were eligible for inclusion and were offered a molecular test. Consenting participants were sent a self-swab kit. RESULTS: Of the 1523 individuals contacted, 602 (39.5%) accepted the test offer. Of the 240 (39.9%) samples returned for testing, 16.3% tested polymerase chain reaction-positive for SARS-CoV-2.Most individuals who declined with a reason (638/905; 70.5%) reported they had already taken or booked a SARS-CoV-2 test, or were part of a testing programme. Matched laboratory records confirmed 73.1% of those who declined were tested by another route. CONCLUSIONS: Most case contacts were tested, either through arranging a test by themselves or by accepting the study offer. Results demonstrate high acceptability, with substantial test positivity, indicating that there is public health benefit in offering tests to contacts as a routine part of the contact-tracing process.

An open label, randomised controlled trial of rifapentine versus rifampicin based short course regimens for the treatment of latent tuberculosis in England: the HALT LTBI pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic requires a focus on treating individuals with latent TB infection (LTBI) to prevent future cases. Promising trials of shorter regimens have shown them to be effective as preventative TB treatment, however there is a paucity of data on self-administered treatment completion rates. This pilot trial assessed treatment completion, adherence, safety and the feasibility of treating LTBI in the UK using a weekly rifapentine and isoniazid regimen versus daily rifampicin and isoniazid, both self-administered for 12 weeks. METHODS: An open label, randomised, multi-site pilot trial was conducted in London, UK, between March 2015 and January 2017. Adults between 16 and 65 years with LTBI at two TB clinics who were eligible for and agreed to preventative therapy were consented and randomised 1:1 to receive either a weekly combination of rifapentine/isoniazid ('intervention') or a daily combination of rifampicin/isoniazid ('standard'), with both regimens taken for twelve weeks; treatment was self-administered in both arms. The primary outcome, completion of treatment, was self-reported, defined as taking more than 90% of prescribed doses and corroborated by pill counts and urine testing. Adverse events were recorded. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients were successfully enrolled. In the intervention arm 21 of 27 patients completed treatment (77.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 57.7-91.4), compared with 19 of 25 (76.0%, CI 54.9-90.6) in the standard of care arm. There was a similar adverse effect profile between the two arms. CONCLUSION: In this pilot trial, treatment completion was comparable between the weekly rifapentine/isoniazid and the daily rifampicin/isoniazid regimens. Additionally, the adverse event profile was similar between the two arms. We conclude that it is safe and feasible to undertake a fully powered trial to determine whether self-administered weekly treatment is superior/non-inferior compared to current treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was funded by the NIHR, UK and registered with ISRCTN ( 26/02/2013-No.04379941 ).

Retrospective assessment of rapid outbreak investigation for gastrointestinal diseases using only cases and background exposure data.

For outbreaks of gastrointestinal disease, rapid identification of the source is crucial to enable public health intervention and prevent further cases. Outbreak investigation comprises analyses of exposure information from cases and, if required, undertaking analytical epidemiological studies. Hypothesis generation has been reliant on empirical knowledge of exposures historically associated with a given pathogen. Epidemiology studies are resource-intensive and prone to bias, one of the reasons being the difficulties in recruiting appropriate controls. For this paper, the information from cases was compared against pre-defined background exposure information. As exemplars, three past outbreaks were used, one of common and two of rare exposures. Information from historical case trawling questionnaires was used to define background exposure having removed any exposures implicated with the outbreak. The case-background approach showed good sensitivity and specificity, identifying correctly all outbreak-related exposures. One additional exposure related to a retailer was identified and four food items where all cases had been exposed. In conclusion, the case-background method, a development of the case-case design, can be used to assist with hypothesis generation or when a case-control study may not be possible to carry out.

Influence of socio-economic status on Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection incidence, risk factors and clinical features.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection can cause serious illness including haemolytic uraemic syndrome. The role of socio-economic status (SES) in differential clinical presentation and exposure to potential risk factors amongst STEC cases has not previously been reported in England. We conducted an observational study using a dataset of all STEC cases identified in England, 2010-2015. Odds ratios for clinical characteristics of cases and foodborne, waterborne and environmental risk factors were estimated using logistic regression, stratified by SES, adjusting for baseline demographic factors. Incidence was higher in the highest SES group compared to the lowest (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.19-2.00). Odds of Accident and Emergency attendance (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.10-1.75) and hospitalisation (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.36-2.15) because of illness were higher in the most disadvantaged compared to the least, suggesting potential lower ascertainment of milder cases or delayed care-seeking behaviour in disadvantaged groups. Advantaged individuals were significantly more likely to report salad/fruit/vegetable/herb consumption (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.16-2.17), non-UK or UK travel (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.40-2.27; OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.35-2.56) and environmental exposures (walking in a paddock, OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.22-2.70; soil contact, OR 1.52, 95% CI 2.13-1.09) suggesting other unmeasured risks, such as person-to-person transmission, could be more important in the most disadvantaged group.

Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992.

To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R0, they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune <70%, there is a definite chance for outbreaks to take place. The immunity level from previous surveys ranges from 32% to 64% after 1996 while no outbreaks in Australian MSMs have been reported since 1996. Further noticing the ill-distributed parameters, we argue that their estimate of R0 is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has privilege over least squares. We obtained the appropriate posterior distributions of parameters and the estimate of R0 ranges from 1.38 to 2.89, indicating a critical immunity of 65%. The reduction in critical immunity and outbreak probabilities predicts the absence of outbreaks in Australian MSMs since 1996. Our study shows the importance of using appropriate methods to provide reliable and accurate estimates of the model parameters especially the transmissibility.

Assessing the severity of influenza: a role for longitudinal telephone surveys?

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a rapid assessment of disease severity was a challenge as a significant proportion of cases did not seek medical care; care-seeking behaviour changed and the proportion asymptomatic was unknown. A random-digit-dialling telephone survey was undertaken during the 2011/12 winter season in England and Wales to address the feasibility of answering these questions. A proportional quota sampling strategy was employed based on gender, age group, geographical location, employment status and level of education. Households were recruited pre-season and re-contacted immediately following peak seasonal influenza activity. The pre-peak survey was undertaken in October 2011 with 1061 individuals recruited and the post-peak telephone survey in March 2012. Eight hundred and thirty-four of the 1061 (78.6%) participants were successfully re-contacted. Their demographic characteristics compared well to national census data. In total, 8.4% of participants self-reported an influenza-like illness (ILI) in the previous 2 weeks, with 3.2% conforming to the World Health Organization (WHO) ILI case definition. In total, 29.6% of the cases reported consulting their general practitioner. 54.1% of the 1061 participants agreed to be re-contacted about providing biological samples. A population-based cohort was successfully recruited and followed up. Longitudinal survey methodology provides a practical tool to assess disease severity during future pandemics.

Imported edible leaves collected at retail sale in England during 2017 with an emphasis on betel and curry leaves: microbiological quality with respect to Salmonella, Shiga-toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) and levels of Escherichia coli.

AIMS: To investigate the microbiological quality of imported fresh leaves on retail sale during 2017 with respect to Salmonella, Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) and levels of E. coli. METHODS AND RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy-nine samples of imported edible leaves (69 banana, 77 betel, 118 curry and 15 other types) were tested. Salmonella spp. were confirmed by whole-genome sequencing and isolated from 44 samples, 26% from curry leaves, 14% from betel and 2·4% from all other leaf types: 80% of all samples contained ≥102 , 44% ≥103 and 22% ≥104 CFU of E. coli CFU per g. All samples where Salmonella were detected also yielded ≥20 CFU of E. coli/g. 54 samples were tested for STEC which was detected in six samples and isolated from three: one was identified as STEC O157:H7. CONCLUSIONS: This report further highlights an ongoing problem of Salmonella contamination of imported fresh edible leaves. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Among all food tested by Public Health England (approximately 11 000 per annum), curry leaves were the herb most commonly contaminated with Salmonella, and betel leaves were the most commonly contaminated ready-to-eat food. The high proportion with unsatisfactory E. coli levels and the detection of STEC suggests risks of contamination by multiple enteric pathogens.

A seroprevalence study to determine the frequency of hantavirus infection in people exposed to wild and pet fancy rats in England.

Recent cases of acute kidney injury due to Seoul hantavirus infection from exposure to wild or pet fancy rats suggest this infection is increasing in prevalence in the UK. We conducted a seroprevalence study in England to estimate cumulative exposure in at-risk groups with contact with domesticated and wild rats to assess risk and inform public health advice. From October 2013 to June 2014, 844 individual blood samples were collected. Hantavirus seroprevalence amongst the pet fancy rat owner group was 34.1% (95% CI 23·9-45·7%) compared with 3·3% (95% CI 1·6-6·0) in a baseline control group, 2·4% in those with occupational exposure to pet fancy rats (95% CI 0·6-5·9) and 1·7% with occupational exposure to wild rats (95% CI 0·2-5·9). Variation in seroprevalence across groups with different exposure suggests that occupational exposure to pet and wild rats carries a very low risk, if any. However incidence of hantavirus infection among pet fancy rat owners/breeders, whether asymptomatic, undiagnosed mild viral illness or more severe disease may be very common and public health advice needs to be targeted to this at-risk group.

An assessment of the microbiological quality of liver-based pâté in England 2012-13: comparison of samples collected at retail and from catering businesses.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the microbiological quality of liver pâté. During 2012-13, a total of 870 samples, unrelated to the investigation of food-poisoning outbreaks, were collected either at retail (46%), catering (53%) or the point of manufacture (1%) and were tested using standard methods to detect Salmonella spp. or Campylobacter spp., and to enumerate for Listeria spp., including Listeria monocytogenes, Clostridium perfringens, coagulase-positive staphylococci including Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus spp., including Bacillus cereus, Escherichia coli, Enterobacteriaceae, and aerobic colony counts (ACCs). Seventy-three percent of samples were of satisfactory microbiological quality, 18% were borderline and 9% unsatisfactory. Salmonella spp. or Campylobacter spp. was not recovered from any sample. The most common causes of unsatisfactory results were elevated ACCs (6% of the samples) and high Enterobacteriaceae counts (4% of samples). The remaining unsatisfactory results were due to elevated counts of: E. coli (three samples); B. cereus (one sample at 2·6 × 105 cfu/g); or L. monocytogenes (one sample at 2·9 × 103 cfu/g). Pâté from retail was less likely to be contaminated with L. monocytogenes than samples collected from catering and samples from supermarkets were of significantly better microbiological quality than those from catering establishments.

Disease severity of Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157 and factors influencing the development of typical haemolytic uraemic syndrome: a retrospective cohort study, 2009-2012.

OBJECTIVES: Assess the disease severity of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157 infection and factors influencing the development of typical haemolytic uraemic syndrome (tHUS). DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study using data collected through routine surveillance questionnaires between 2009 and 2012. PARTICIPANTS: 3323 symptomatic cases of STEC O157. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of human STEC O157 and tHUS, proportion of cases reporting bloody diarrhoea, hospitalisation, tHUS and death. Odds of progression to tHUS and predicted percentage chance of developing tHUS based on case demographics, STEC O157 strain characteristics and clinical symptoms. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2012, 3323 cases of symptomatic STEC O157 with completed questionnaires were reported, of which 172 developed tHUS (5.18%). Being aged 1-4 years (OR 8.65, 95% CI 5.01 to 14.94, p=0.004) or female (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.30, p=0.009), being infected with phage type (PT) 21/28 (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.25 to 3.42, p=0.005) or PT 2 (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.06 to 4.50, p=0.034), receiving ß-lactam antibiotics (OR 4.08, 95% CI 1.43 to 11.68, p=0.009) and presenting with vomiting (OR 3.16, 95% CI 2.16 to 4.62, p<0.001) or bloody diarrhoea (OR 2.10, 95% CI 1.38 to 3.20, p=0.001) were found to be significant risk factors for progression to tHUS. The predicted percentage chance of developing tHUS varied from under 1% to 50% if all risk factors were present. CONCLUSIONS: The data from this study indicate the use of ß-lactam antibiotics should be avoided in suspected cases of STEC infection in all age groups, particularly in those under the age of 5.

A large Great Britain-wide outbreak of STEC O157 phage type 8 linked to handling of raw leeks and potatoes.

Between December 2010 and July 2011, 252 cases of STEC O157 PT8 stx1 + 2 infection were reported in England, Scotland and Wales. This was the largest outbreak of STEC reported in England and the second largest in the UK to date. Eighty cases were hospitalized, with two cases of haemolytic uraemic syndrome and one death reported. Routine investigative data were used to generate a hypothesis but the subsequent case-control study was inconclusive. A second, more detailed, hypothesis generation exercise identified consumption or handling of vegetables as a potential mode of transmission. A second case-control study demonstrated that cases were more likely than controls to live in households whose members handled or prepared leeks bought unwrapped [odds ratio (OR) 40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2·08-769·4], and potatoes bought in sacks (OR 13·13, 95% CI 1·19-145·3). This appears to be the first outbreak of STEC O157 infection linked to the handling of leeks.

Association between use of proton pump inhibitors and non-typhoidal salmonellosis identified following investigation into an outbreak of Salmonella Mikawasima in the UK, 2013.

In November 2013, national public health agencies in England and Scotland identified an increase in laboratory-confirmed Salmonella Mikawasima. The role of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) as a risk factor for salmonellosis is unclear; we therefore captured information on PPI usage as part of our outbreak investigation. We conducted a case-control study, comparing each case with two controls. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Thirty-nine of 61 eligible cases were included in the study. The median age of cases was 45 years; 56% were female. Of these, 33% were admitted to hospital and 31% reported taking PPIs. We identified an association between PPIs and non-typhoidal salmonellosis (aOR 8·8, 95% CI 2·0-38·3). There is increasing evidence supporting the existence of an association between salmonellosis and PPIs; however, biological studies are needed to understand the effect of PPIs in the pathogenesis of Salmonella. We recommend future outbreak studies investigate PPI usage to strengthen evidence on the relevance of PPIs in Salmonella infection. These findings should be used to support the development of guidelines for patients and prescribers on the risk of gastrointestinal infection and PPI usage.

Selection of population controls for a Salmonella case-control study in the UK using a market research panel and web-survey provides time and resource savings.

Timely recruitment of population controls in infectious disease outbreak investigations is challenging. We evaluated the timeliness and cost of using a market research panel as a sampling frame for recruiting controls in a case-control study during an outbreak of Salmonella Mikawasima in the UK in 2013. We deployed a web-survey by email to targeted members of a market research panel (panel controls) in parallel to the outbreak control team interviewing randomly selected public health staff by telephone and completing paper-based questionnaires (staff controls). Recruitment and completion of exposure history web-surveys for panel controls (n = 123) took 14 h compared to 15 days for staff controls (n = 82). The average staff-time cost per questionnaire for staff controls was £13·13 compared to an invoiced cost of £3·60 per panel control. Differences in the distribution of some exposures existed between these control groups but case-control studies using each group found that illness was associated with consumption of chicken outside of the home and chicken from local butchers. Recruiting market research panel controls offers time and resource savings. More rapid investigations would enable more prompt implementation of control measures. We recommend that this method of recruiting controls is considered in future investigations and assessed further to better understand strengths and limitations.

Supporting general practices to provide sexual and reproductive health services: protocol for the 3Cs & HIV programme.

OBJECTIVES: Sexually transmitted infections, HIV and unplanned pregnancies continue to be a major public health problem in England, especially in young adults. Strengthening the provision of free condoms, HIV testing, chlamydia screening and contraception within primary care will contribute to reducing poor sexual and reproductive health outcomes. Recent research demonstrated the benefit for general practices of educational support visits based on behaviour change theory. Public Health England (PHE) has piloted an educational training programme to improve the delivery of sexual health services and HIV testing within general practice. STUDY DESIGN & METHODS: The 3Cs & HIV programme used practice based workshops to improve staffs' awareness and skills in order to increase opportunistic offers of chlamydia testing, provision of contraceptive service information and free condoms (the '3Cs') to 15-24 year olds and HIV testing according to national guidelines. The programme was based on the theory of planned behaviour and has been implemented using a stepped wedge design. Process evaluation, testing and diagnosis data, plus qualitative interviews were all used in the evaluation. The primary outcome measures were chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates. Secondary outcome measures were HIV testing and diagnoses rates within each practice and rates of consultations where long acting reversible contraceptives had been discussed. CONCLUSION: A key strength of the 3Cs & HIV programme has been the evidence base underpinning the development of the resources and the formal process evaluation of its implementation. The programme was designed to encourage sustainable relationships between general practice staff and local sexual health services as well as the knowledge, awareness and behaviours cultivated during the programme.

Self-sampling for community respiratory illness: a new tool for national virological surveillance.

This report aims to evaluate the usefulness of self-sampling as an approach for future national surveillance of emerging respiratory infections by comparing virological data from two parallel surveillance schemes in England. Nasal swabs were obtained via self-administered sampling from consenting adults (≥ 16 years-old) with influenza symptoms who had contacted the National Pandemic Flu Service (NPFS) health line during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Equivalent samples submitted by sentinel general practitioners participating in the national influenza surveillance scheme run jointly by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) and Health Protection Agency were also obtained. When comparable samples were analysed there was no significant difference in results obtained from self-sampling and clinician-led sampling schemes. These results demonstrate that self-sampling can be applied in a responsive and flexible manner, to supplement sentinel clinician-based sampling, to achieve a wide spread and geographically representative way of assessing community transmission of a known organism.

Exploring the epidemiology of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria in west London and the utility of routinely collected hospital microbiology data.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to identify carbapenem-resistant organisms using routinely collected local microbiology data and describe the epidemiology of carbapenem resistance in two London teaching hospitals. METHODS: Data on inpatients infected or colonized with Gram-negative organisms between March 2009 and February 2012 were extracted. A computer algorithm was developed incorporating internationally recognized criteria to distinguish carbapenem-resistant organisms. Multivariable analysis was conducted to identify factors associated with infection or colonization with carbapenem-resistant organisms. Binomial regression was performed to detect changes in resistance trends over time. RESULTS: Yearly incidence of carbapenem resistance was observed to be increasing, with significant increasing trends in Acinetobacter baumannii (47.1% in 2009-10 to 77.2% in 2011-12; P<0.001) and Enterobacter spp. (2.2% in 2009-10 to 11.5% in 2011-12; P<0.001). Single-variable and multivariable analysis demonstrated differences in the proportion of carbapenem-resistant isolates across all variables investigated, including age, sex and clinical specialty; in the latter organism-specific niches were identified. Patients in the youngest age group (16-24 years old) had the highest odds of being infected or colonized with carbapenem-resistant isolates of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella spp. or Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Furthermore, proportions of carbapenem-resistant organisms differed between the hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Carbapenem resistance is an emerging problem within the UK inpatient healthcare setting. This is not an issue confined to the Enterobacteriaceae and fine-resolution surveillance is needed to identify at-risk groups. Regular analysis of routinely collected data can provide insight into the evolving carbapenem-resistance threat, with the ability to inform efforts to prevent the spread of resistance.

Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes.

General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.