Risk surveillance with spatial distribution of Organochlorine Pesticides (OCPs) from sedimentary samples of Chenab River.

A pioneering study employed a holistic geostatistical approach to predict the spatial variability of a non sampled area in the Chenab River, Pakistan, using kriging interpolation for organochlorine pesticide (OCP)-polluted risk zones. The Present research intended to investigate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks, contamination levels, and spatial variation of OCPs in the Chenab River, Pakistan. The residual OCP content in sediment samples (n = 120) ranged from 0.056 to 32.14 ng/g. DDE and α-HCH were prevalent among all the samples analyzed, with mean concentrations of 15.84 ± 8.02 and 12.45 ± 6.72 ng/g, respectively. The order of magnitude of OCPs in sediment samples was DDTs > α-HCH > chlorothalonil > heptachlor > endosulfan > aldrin > dieldrin. The findings of the single (SPI) and Nemerow (Nel) pollution index of α-HCH, heptachlor, and aldrin depicted the Chenab River as a serious pollution risk zone. The outcomes of the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis represent the positive correlation among all OCPs, revealing the common origin. Distribution trends showed substantially higher (p < 0.05) contents of analyzed OCPs along the downstream zone. With regards to USEPA human health hazard assessment model, the estimated non-carcinogenic (ΣHI) and non-carcinogenic (ΣTCR) risk ranged from 1.1 × 10-5 to 1.0 × 10-1, 4.0 × 10-8 to 3.2 × 10-4 respectively. TCR >10-4 illustrated a substantial cancer health risk posed by α-HCH, heptachlor, aldrin, and dieldrin in the downstream zone. We recommend the urgent cessation of the ongoing discharge of OCPs into the Chenab River, which needs to be highlighted owing to the significant cancer risk to public health to ensure the good health and wellbeings.

Ecological and human health hazards; integrated risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from the Chenab River, Pakistan.

Carcinogenic hazards to human health were investigated through oral and dermal exposure to organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from water samples (n = 120) of River Chenab, Pakistan. The Pioneering study aimed to employ an integrated geographic information system (GIS) based geostatistical method for the determination of pollution load by GC-ECD from water of River Chenab. The residual levels of OCPs detected from water samples ranged from 0.54 to 122 ng L-1 with significant prevalence of DDE and α-HCH. Results of the Nemerrow pollution index (NeI), single pollution index (SPI), and comprehensive pollution index (CPI) reflected the downstream zone a stern pollution risk zone. The spatial distribution pattern through geostatistical approaches also revealed significantly higher (p < 0.05) OCP levels in the downstream zone. Risk quotient (RQCCC) of surface water quality with respect to heptachlor epitomized a high level of risk (RQCCC > 1). Non-carcinogenic human health risk (Σ HQ) assessment ranged from 8.39 × 10-9 to 1.7 × 10-3, which represented a marginal risk through oral and dermal exposure. However, carcinogenic risks by oral exposure route were ranged from 3.57 × 10-11 to 4.46 × 10-6. Estimated cancer risk (ΣCR) exhibited a considerable carcinogenic risk posed by heptachlor, α-HCH and dieldrin. It is suggested to employ an immediate mitigation strategy for the constant discharge of OCPs in the studied area.

Comprehensive GIS based risk surveillance of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in edible fish species of River Chenab, Pakistan.

The present study was conducted to evaluate Carcinogenic (TR) and non-carcinogenic (THQ) human health risk of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in three edible fish species (Labeo boga, Channa marulius and Wallago attu) of River Chenab, Pakistan using USEPA human health risk assessment model. Holistic GIS (Geographic information system) based Geo-Statistical approach has been employed for the first time in River Chenab, Pakistan to categorize contaminated risk zones of OCPs based on single pollution index. The ∑OCPs concentrations in fish species were ranged from 5.09 to 414 ng/g with the prevalence of dieldrin. Results of single pollution index of DDE, aldrin, dieldrin and ∑endosulfan revealed River Chenab as polluted and risk zone area. Distribution pattern assessed significantly higher (p < 0.05) concentrations of OCPs in downstream area suggesting substantial pollution of surrounded industrial region. The human health risk assessment depicted no harmful non-carcinogenic (THQ) risk except for ΣOCPs concentration of C. marulius. Significant carcinogenic (TR) health risk exhibited by all examined OCPs from maximum of the studied sites. Therefore, the high carcinogenic human health risk had highlighted an immediate removal of continuous disposal of OCPs in the River Chenab.

Seasonality and trend analysis of tuberculosis in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a respiratory infectious disease which shows seasonality. Seasonal variation in TB notifications has been reported in different regions, suggesting that various geographic and demographic factors are involved in seasonality. The study was designed to find out the temporal and seasonal pattern of TB incidence in Lahore, Pakistan from 2006 to 2013 in newly diagnosed pulmonary TB cases. SPSS version 21 software was used for correlation to determine the temporal relationship and time series analysis for seasonal variation. Temperature was found to be significantly associated with TB incidence at the 0.01 level with p=0.006 and r=0.477. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function showed a significant peak at lag 4 suggesting a seasonal component of the TB series. Seasonal adjusted factor showed peak seasonal variation in the second quarter (April-June). The expert modeler predicted the Holt-Winter's additive model as the best fit model for the time series, which exhibits a linear trend with constant (additive) seasonal variations, and the stationary R(2) value was found to be 0.693. The forecast shows a declining trend with seasonality. A significant temporal relation with a seasonal pattern and declining trend with variable amplitudes of fluctuation was observed in the incidence of TB.