Can we predict kidney involvement in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus? A retrospective cohort study with independent validation.

OBJECTIVES: To discern predictive factors for incident kidney involvement in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: Patients with SLE from the 'Attikon' Lupus cohort were monitored for lupus nephritis (LN), defined by kidney histology and/or classification criteria. Demographic and clinical characteristics at baseline were compared against patients who did not develop LN. LN-free survival curves were generated by Kaplan-Meier. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent predictors of LN. Independent validation was performed in the University of Crete Lupus registry. RESULTS: Among the 570 patients in the derivation cohort, 59 exhibited LN as their initial presentation, while an additional 66 developed LN during the follow-up period (collectively, 21.9% incidence). In the latter group, baseline factors predictive of subsequent kidney involvement were male sex (multivariable-adjusted [a]HR 4.31, 95% CI: 1.82-10.2), age of SLE diagnosis below 26 years (aHR 3.71, 95% CI: 1.84-7.48), high anti-dsDNA titre (aHR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.03-5.97) and low C3 and/or C4 (although not statistically significant, aHR 2.24, 95% CI: 0.83-6.05, p= 0.11). A combination of these factors at time of diagnosis conferred an almost 90-fold risk compared with serologically inactive, older, female patients (aHR 88.77, 95% CI : 18.75-420.41), signifying a very high-risk group. Independent validation in the Crete Lupus registry showed concordant results with the original cohort. CONCLUSION: Male sex, younger age and serologic activity at SLE diagnosis are strongly associated with subsequent kidney involvement. Vigilant surveillance and consideration of early use of disease-modifying drugs is warranted in these subsets of patients.

Residual disease activity and treatment intensification in systemic lupus erythematosus: A cross-sectional study to quantify the need for new therapies.

OBJECTIVE: The proportion of SLE patients with residual disease activity in routine settings is variable. We assessed disease activity state in patients during their most recent visit, and whether patients with residual activity were offered therapy intensification. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of consecutive lupus patients in three tertiary centers. Patients were categorized as: i) remission off-therapy, ii) remission on-therapy, iii) low disease activity, and iv) non-optimally controlled disease. Multivariable regression identified factors associated with treatment intensification and ROC analysis calculated the accuracy of SLEDAI-2K to predict this intensification. RESULTS: Three hundred and thirty-two patients were included [93.1% female, mean (SD) age 48.5 (14.7) years, median (IQR) disease duration 6.5 (12.4) years]. Mean (SD) total and clinical SLEDAI at last visit were 3.7 (3.0) and 3.0 (2.9), respectively. Although 23.2% of patients were in remission, 40.1% were categorized as non-optimally controlled disease (79.2% due to SLEDAI-2K > 4), but less than 50% of them were offered therapy intensification. Proteinuria (OR 6.78, 95% CI 2.06-22.25), arthritis (OR 5.48, 95% CI 3.20-9.40), and rash (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.81-5.75) were associated with intensification of therapy, but the accuracy of either total or clinical SLEDAI to predict it was moderate (ROC area under the curve 0.761 and 0.779, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: About 40% of patients have evidence of residual disease activity and could qualify for novel treatments. Most treatment changes were triggered by active renal, joint, and skin disease, whereas the predictive value of SLEDAI-2K as a metric of disease activity was modest.

Quality indicators for systemic lupus erythematosus based on the 2019 EULAR recommendations: development and initial validation in a cohort of 220 patients.

BACKGROUND: Quality of care is receiving increased attention in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We developed quality indicators (QIs) for SLE based on the 2019 update of European League Against Rheumatism recommendations. METHODS: A total of 44 candidate QIs corresponding to diagnosis, monitoring and treatment, were independently rated for validity and feasibility by 12 experts and analysed by a modified Research and Development Corporation/University of California Los Angeles model. Adherence to the final set of QIs and correlation with disease outcomes (flares, hospitalisations and organ damage) was tested in a cohort of 220 SLE patients with a median monitoring of 2 years (IQR 2-4). RESULTS: The panel selected a total of 18 QIs as valid and feasible. On average, SLE patients received 54% (95% CI 52.3% to 56.2%) of recommended care, with adherence ranging from 44.7% (95% CI 40.8% to 48.6%) for diagnosis-related QIs to 84.3% (95% CI 80.6% to 87.5%) for treatment-related QIs. Sustained remission or low disease activity were achieved in 26.8% (95% CI 21.1% to 33.2%). Tapering of prednisone dose to less than 7.5 mg/day was achieved in 93.6% (95% CI 88.2% to 97.0%) while 73.5% (95% CI 66.6% to 79.6%) received the recommended hydroxychloroquine dose. Higher adherence to monitoring-related QIs was associated with reduced risk for a composite adverse outcome (flare, hospitalisation or damage accrual) during the last year of observation (OR 0.97 per 1% adherence rate, 95% CI 0.96 to 0.99). CONCLUSION: We developed QIs for assessing and improving the care of SLE patients. Initial real-life data suggest face validity, but a variable degree of adherence and a need for further improvement.

Transition to severe phenotype in systemic lupus erythematosus initially presenting with non-severe disease: implications for the management of early disease.

OBJECTIVE: Changes in the care of patients with SLE dictate a re-evaluation of its natural history and risk factors for disease deterioration and damage accrual. We sought to decipher factors predictive of a deterioration in phenotype ('transition') in patients initially presenting with non-severe disease. METHODS: Patients from the 'Attikon' cohort with disease duration ≥1 year were included. Disease at diagnosis was categorised as mild, moderate or severe, based on the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group manifestations and physician judgement. 'Transition' in severity was defined as an increase in category of severity at any time from diagnosis to last follow-up. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify baseline factors associated with this transition. RESULTS: 462 patients were followed for a median (IQR) of 36 (120) months. At diagnosis, more than half (56.5%) had a mild phenotype. During disease course, transition to more severe forms was seen in 44.2%, resulting in comparable distribution among severity patterns at last follow-up (mild 28.4%, moderate 33.1%, severe 38.5%). Neuropsychiatric involvement at onset (OR 6.33, 95% CI 1.22 to 32.67), male sex (OR 4.53, 95% CI 1.23 to 16.60) and longer disease duration (OR 1.09 per 1 year, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.14) were independently associated with transition from mild or moderate to severe disease. Patients with disease duration ≥3 years who progressed to more severe disease had more than 20-fold increased risk to accrue irreversible damage. CONCLUSION: Almost half of patients with initially non-severe disease progress to more severe forms of SLE, especially men and patients with positive anti-double-stranded DNA or neuropsychiatric involvement at onset. These data may have implications for the management of milder forms of lupus.