Development and Validation of a Noninvasive Model for the Detection of High-Risk Varices in Patients with Unresectable HCC.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Noninvasive variceal risk stratification systems have not been validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which presents logistical barriers for patients in the setting of systemic HCC therapy. We aimed to develop and validate a noninvasive algorithm for the prediction of varices in patients with unresectable HCC. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study in 21 centers in the United States including adult patients with unresectable HCC and Child-Pugh A5-B7 cirrhosis diagnosed between 2007 and 2019. We included patients who completed an esophagogastroduodonoscopy (EGD) within 12 months of index imaging but before HCC treatment. We divided the cohort into a 70:30 training set and validation set, with the goal of maximizing negative predictive value (NPV) to avoid EGD in low-risk patients. RESULTS: We included 707 patients (median age, 64.6 years; 80.6% male; 74.0% White). Median time from HCC diagnosis to EGD was 47 (interquartile range, 114) days, with 25.0% of patients having high-risk varices. A model using clinical variables alone achieved an NPV of 86.3% in the validation cohort, whereas a model integrating clinical and imaging variables had an NPV 97.4% in validation. The clinical and imaging model would avoid EGDs in more than half of low-risk patients while misclassifying 7.7% of high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: A model incorporating clinical and imaging data can accurately predict the absence of high-risk varices in patients with HCC and avoid EGD in many low-risk patients before the initiation of systemic therapy, thus expediting their care and avoiding treatment delays.

Barriers to liver transplant referral in safety net settings: A national provider survey.

Safety net systems care for patients with a high burden of liver disease yet experience many barriers to liver transplant (LT) referral. This study aimed to assess safety net providers' perspectives on barriers to LT referrals in the United States. We conducted a nationwide anonymous online survey of self-identified safety net gastroenterologists and hepatologists from March through November 2022. This 27-item survey was disseminated via e-mail, society platforms, and social media. Survey sections included practice characteristics, transplant referral practices, perceived multilevel barriers to referral, potential solutions, and respondent characteristics. Fifty complete surveys were included in analysis. A total of 60.0% of respondents self-identified as White and 54.0% male. A total of 90.0% practiced in an urban setting, 82.0% in tertiary medical centers, and 16.0% in community settings, with all 4 US regions represented. Perceived patient-level barriers ranked as most significant, followed by practice-level, then provider-level barriers. Patient-level barriers such as lack of insurance (72.0%), finances (66.0%), social support (66.0%), and stable housing/transportation (64.0%) were ranked as significant barriers to referral, while medical mistrust and lack of interest were not. Limited access to financial services (36.0%) and addiction/mental health resources (34.0%) were considered important practice-level barriers. Few reported existing access to patient navigators (12.0%), and patient navigation was ranked as most likely to improve referral practices, followed by an expedited/expanded pathway for insurance coverage for LT. In this national survey, safety net providers reported the highest barriers to LT referral at the patient level and practice level. These data can inform the development of multilevel interventions in safety net settings to enhance equity in LT access for vulnerable patients.

Factors Associated With Liver Transplant Referral Among Patients With Cirrhosis at Multiple Safety-Net Hospitals.

Importance: A high proportion of underserved patients with cirrhosis receive care at safety-net hospitals (SNHs). While liver transplant (LT) can be a life-saving treatment for cirrhosis, data on referral patterns from SNHs to LT centers are lacking. Objective: To identify factors associated with LT referral within the SNH context. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included 521 adult patients with cirrhosis and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores of 15 or greater. Participants received outpatient hepatology care at 3 SNHs between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017, with end of follow-up on May 1, 2022. Exposures: Patient demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and liver disease factors. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was referral for LT. Descriptive statistics were used to describe patient characteristics. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate factors associated with LT referral. Multiple chained imputation was used to address missing values. Results: Of 521 patients, 365 (70.1%) were men, the median age was 60 (IQR, 52-66) years, most (311 [59.7%]) were Hispanic or Latinx, 338 (64.9%) had Medicaid insurance, and 427 (82.0%) had a history of alcohol use (127 [24.4%] current vs 300 [57.6%] prior). The most common liver disease etiology was alcohol associated liver disease (280 [53.7%]), followed by hepatitis C virus infection (141 [27.1%]). Median MELD-Na score was 19 (IQR, 16-22). One hundred forty-five patients (27.8%) were referred for LT. Of these, 51 (35.2%) were wait-listed, and 28 (19.3%) underwent LT. In a multivariable model, male sex (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.50 [95% CI, 0.31-0.81]), Black race vs Hispanic or Latinx ethnicity (AOR, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.04-0.89]), uninsured status (AOR, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.18-0.89]), and hospital site (AOR, 0.40 [95% CI, 0.18-0.87]) were associated with lower odds of being referred. Reasons for not being referred (n = 376) included active alcohol use and/or limited sobriety (123 [32.7%]), insurance issues (80 [21.3%]), lack of social support (15 [4.0%]), undocumented status (7 [1.9%]), and unstable housing (6 [1.6%]). Conclusions: In this cohort study of SNHs, less than one-third of patients with cirrhosis and MELD-Na scores of 15 or greater were referred for LT. The identified sociodemographic factors negatively associated with LT referral highlight potential intervention targets and opportunities to standardize LT referral practices to increase access to life-saving transplant among underserved patients.