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Background: In May-June 2023, an unprecedented outbreak of human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) infections occurred in a kindergarten, Zhejiang Province, China. National, provincial, and local public health officials investigated the cause of the outbreak and instituted actions to control its spread. Methods: We interviewed patients with the respiratory symptoms by questionnaire. Respiratory samples were screened for six respiratory pathogens by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The confirmed cases were further sequenced of G gene to confirm the HRSV genotype. A phylogenetic tree was reconstructed by maximum likelihood method. Results: Of the 103 children in the kindergarten, 45 were classified as suspected cases, and 25 cases were confirmed by RT-PCR. All confirmed cases were identified from half of classes. 36% (9/25) were admitted to hospital, none died. The attack rate was 53.19%. The median ages of suspected and confirmed cases were 32.7 months and 35.8 months, respectively. Nine of 27 confirmed cases lived in one community. Only two-family clusters among 88 household contacts were HRSV positive. A total of 18 of the G gene were obtained from the confirmed cases. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that 16 of the sequences belonged to the HRSV B/BA9 genotype, and the other 2 sequences belonged to the HRSV A/ON1 genotype. The school were closed on June 9 and the outbreak ended on June 15. Conclusion: These findings suggest the need for an increased awareness of HRSV coinfections outbreak in the kindergarten, when HRSV resurges in the community after COVID-19 pandemic.
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Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano , Niño , Humanos , Preescolar , Virus Sincitial Respiratorio Humano/genética , Pandemias , Filogenia , Instituciones Académicas , Brotes de Enfermedades , China/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Objective@#To evaluate the effectiveness for the construction of "mosquito-free village" in Xuejia Village, Pujiang County, Zhejiang Province, so as to provide the guidance for the construction of "mosquito-free village" in other rural areas.@*Methods@#Density of adult mosquitoes in Xuejia Village was investigated using light trap method and density of larval mosquitoes was investigated using larval straw method from April to November each year. Totally 30 households of villagers were randomly selected, and their awareness rates of mosquito control knowledge, mosquito control behavior forming rates and satisfaction rates were surveyed through questionnaires. Investment during construction (from August 2016 to December 2018) and maintenance period (from 2019 to 2023) of "mosquito-free village" were investigated through data review and interviews. Long-term effects of "mosquito-free village" construction in Xuejia Village were evaluated in terms of mosquito density from 2016 to 2023, effectiveness of health education for villagers, satisfaction and investment.@*Results@#Compared with the year 2016, the densities of adult and larval mosquitoes in Xuejia Village were significantly decreased from 2017 to 2023. The average monthly density of adult mosquitoes in 2023 decreased by 98.34%, and the average monthly 100 household index of larval mosquitoes decreased by 98.45% compared to 2016. The average monthly density of adult mosquitoes from 2019 to 2023 was less than or equal to one mosquito per light trap in a night, and the average monthly 100 household index of larval mosquitoes was less than or equal to five places per 100 households. The awareness rate of mosquito control knowledge was 93.33%, the behavior forming rate was 86.67%, and the satisfaction rate was 90.00%. By December 2023, the total investment during construction and maintenance period was 450 thousand Yuan, with an average annual investment of 60.7 thousand Yuan and average annual investment of 206.61 Yuan per household. The average annual investment during maintenance period was 36.2 thousand Yuan, and the average annual investment per household was 109.70 Yuan.@*Conclusion@#The mosquito density, effectiveness of health education for villagers and satisfaction of "mosquito-free village" in Xuejia Village all meet the evaluation criteria of "mosquito-free village", and the investment is reasonable, making it suitable for promotion to other rural areas.
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Objective@#To explore the effects of different concentrations of glucose solution on the survival of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens larvae, the attraction to mosquitoes and egg-laying behaviors, so as to provide the reference for developing mosquito control technology based on sugar bait.@*Methods@#White porcelain bowls were filled with 100 mL of 3%, 5%, 8%, 10% and 15% glucose solutions. Ten of fourth instar larvae of Aedes albopictus or Culex pipiens pallens were added to each bowl, and the survival of larvae was recorded after 2, 4, 6, 24, 48 and 72 hours. Egg-laying cups containing 5%, 8% and 15% glucose solution were put in mosquito cages containing fully blooded female mosquitoes of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens (50 mosquitoes each), and the total number of eggs laid in 72 hours was observed. The analogous site room was filled with fully blooded and starved female mosquitoes of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens (100 mosquitoes each), and simple mosquito control buckets containing 5% and 8% glucose solution and black sticky insect plates. The number of mosquitoes and eggs was observed after 6 days. All the above experiments were repeated 3 times using dechlorinated water as the control.@*Results@#The 72 hour corrected mortality rates of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens larvae gradually increased with the increase of glucose concentration. The glucose solution with 5% and higher concentrations was not suitable for mosquito larvae to survive. The attraction of egg-laying behaviors to Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens gradually decreased with the increase of glucose concentration. The effects were similar between 5% and 8% glucose solution, with the averages of 686.67 and 682.33 eggs for Aedes albopictus, and 3.00 and 2.33 egg rafts for Culex pipiens pallens. In analogous site room, there were 93.33, 105.00 and 130.33 adult mosquitoes captured on average in the control group, 5% and 8% glucose solution groups, respectively, with 8% glucose solution group more attractive to adult mosquitoes than the control group (F=3.283, P=0.030); there were 70.33, 55.33 and 63.00 Aedes albopictus eggs (eggs counts+larvae counts) on average, respectively, with statistically significant differences among the three groups (H=6.761, P=0.034).@*Conclusion@#Glucose solution with concentration of 5% or higher can effectively inhibit the survival of Aedes albopictus and Culex pipiens pallens larvae, and attractive to adult mosquitoes and egg-laying behavoirs.
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Objective: Aedes-borne arboviral diseases were important public health problems in Zhejiang before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics and change of the epidemiology of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases in the province. Methods: Descriptive analyses were conducted to summarize the epidemiology of Aedes-borne arboviral diseases during 2003-2022. Results: A total of 3,125 cases, including 1,968 indigenous cases, were reported during 2003-2022. Approximately three-quarters of imported cases were infected from Southeast Asia. The number of annual imported cases increased during 2013-2019 (R2 = 0.801, p = 0.004) and peaked in 2019. When compared with 2003-2012, all prefecture-level cities witnessed an increase in the annual mean incidence of imported cases in 2013-2019 (0.11-0.42 per 100,000 population vs. 0-0.05 per 100,000 population) but a drastic decrease during 2020-2022 (0-0.03 per 100,000 population). The change in geographical distribution was similar, with 33/91 counties during 2003-2012, 86/91 during 2013-2019, and 14/91 during 2020-2022. The annual mean incidence of indigenous cases in 2013-2019 was 7.79 times that in 2003-2012 (0.44 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 population). No indigenous cases were reported between 2020-2022. Geographical extension of indigenous cases was also noted before 2020-from two counties during 2003-2012 to 44 during 2013-2019. Conclusion: Dengue, chikungunya fever, zika disease, and yellow fever are not endemic in Zhejiang but will be important public health problems for the province in the post-COVID-19 era.
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Aedes , Infecciones por Arbovirus , COVID-19 , Fiebre Chikungunya , Dengue , Infección por el Virus Zika , Virus Zika , Animales , Dengue/epidemiología , Infecciones por Arbovirus/epidemiología , Fiebre Chikungunya/epidemiología , Infección por el Virus Zika/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
A cluster of Chlamydia psittaci (C. psittaci) cases was reported in Zhejiang Province, China, 2019. This study evaluates the extent of the outbreak and determines the source of infection. Real-time PCR and sequencing of the ompA gene of C. psittaci were performed to identify the cases, the domesticated poultry and close contacts. The index patient was a 76-year-old woman with chronic vertigo, and Case 2 was a 64-year-old female farmer with herpes zoster. Both women bought psittaci-infected chickens or ducks from the same mobile street vendor and raised them for 10 days and 23 days before fever onset. There were no direct contact between the two women. C. psittaci test was positive for the two patients, one sick chicken, three healthy ducks and the vendor's chicken cage. Phylogenetic analysis showed that all seven C. psittaci positive samples carried identical ompA genotype A of C. psittaci. Of all of the patients' 148 close contacts, none tested positive for C. psittaci, or developed acute respiratory symptoms. Both patients were discharged after a 4-week hospital stay. In conclusion, the source of this cluster was the poultry infected with C. psittaci, which occasionally cause infections in farmers, but inter-human transmission seems unlikely.
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Chlamydophila psittaci , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral , Psitacosis , Humanos , Animales , Femenino , Chlamydophila psittaci/genética , Psitacosis/epidemiología , Psitacosis/veterinaria , Aves de Corral , Agricultores , Filogenia , Pollos , Enfermedades de las Aves de Corral/epidemiología , Patos , China/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Objective: Human adenovirus (HAdV) coinfection with other respiratory viruses is common, but adenovirus infection combined with human coronavirus-229E (HCoV-229E) is very rare. Study design and setting: Clinical manifestations, laboratory examinations, and disease severity were compared between three groups: one coinfected with HAdV-Ad7 and HCoV-229E, one infected only with adenovirus (mono-adenovirus), and one infected only with HCoV-229E (mono-HCoV-229E). Results: From July to August 2019, there were 24 hospitalized children: two were coinfected with HAdV-Ad7 and HCoV-229E, and 21 were infected with a single adenovirus infection. Finally, one 14-year-old boy presented with a high fever, but tested negative for HAdV-Ad7 and HCoV-229E. Additionally, three adult asymptotic cases with HCoV-229E were screened. No significant difference in age was found in the coinfection and mono-adenovirus groups (11 vs. 8 years, p = 0.332). Both groups had the same incubation period (2.5 vs. 3 days, p = 0.8302), fever duration (2.5 vs. 2.9 days, p = 0.5062), and length of hospital stay (7 vs. 6.76 days, p = 0.640). No obvious differences were found in viral loads between the coinfection and mono-adenovirus groups (25.4 vs. 23.7, p = 0.570), or in the coinfection and mono-HCoV-229E groups (32.9 vs. 30.06, p = 0.067). All cases recovered and were discharged from the hospital. Conclusion: HAdV-Ad7 and HCoV-229E coinfection in healthy children may not increase the clinical severity or prolong the clinical course. The specific interaction mechanism between the viruses requires further study.
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Adenovirus Humanos , Coinfección , Coronavirus , Adulto , Niño , Humanos , Masculino , Hospitales , Carga Viral , AdolescenteRESUMEN
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9-80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0-34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.
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COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Simulación por Computador , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Brotes de Enfermedades , SARS-CoV-2 , Infecciones AsintomáticasRESUMEN
We evaluated and compared humoral immune responses after inactivated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination among naïve individuals, asymptomatically infected individuals, and recovered patients with varying severity. In this multicenter, prospective cohort study, blood samples from 666 participants were collected before and after 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccination. Among 392 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-naïve individuals, the seroconversion rate increased significantly from 51.8% (median antispike protein pan-immunoglobulins [S-Igs] titer: 0.8 U/ml) after the first dose to 96% (median S-Igs titer: 79.5 U/ml) after the second dose. Thirty-two percent of naïve individuals had detectable neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against the original strain but all of them lost neutralizing activity against the Omicron variant. In 274 individuals with natural infection, humoral immunity was significantly improved after a single vaccine dose, with median S-Igs titers of 596.7, 1176, 1086.5, and 1828 U/ml for asymptomatic infections, mild cases, moderate cases, and severe/critical cases, respectively. NAb titers also improved significantly. However, the second dose did not substantially increase antibody levels. Although a booster dose is needed for those without infection, our findings indicate that recovered patients should receive only a single dose of the vaccine, regardless of the clinical severity, until there is sufficient evidence to confirm the benefits of a second dose.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas Virales , Anticuerpos Neutralizantes , Anticuerpos Antivirales , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacunación , Vacunas de Productos InactivadosRESUMEN
Objective: Autochthonous transmission of the dengue virus (DENV) occurred each year from 2014 to 2018 in Zhejiang province, and became an emerging public health problem. We characterized the autochthonous transmission of the DENV and traced the source of infection for further control and prevention of dengue. Methods: Descriptive and spatiotemporal cluster analyses were conducted to characterize the epidemiology of autochthonous transmission of the DENV. Molecular epidemiology was used to identify the infection source. Results: In total, 1,654 indigenous cases and 12 outbreaks, with no deaths, were reported during 2004-2018. Before 2017, all outbreaks occurred in suburban areas. During 2017-2018, five out of eight outbreaks occurred in urban areas. The median duration of outbreaks (28 days) in 2017-2018 was shortened significantly (P = 0.028) in comparison with that in 2004-2016 (71 days). The median onset-visiting time, visiting-confirmation time, and onset-confirmation time was 1, 3, and 4 days, respectively. The DENV serotypes responsible for autochthonous transmission in Zhejiang Province were DENV 1, DENV 2, and DENV 3, with DENV 1 being the most frequently reported. Southeast Asia was the predominant source of indigenous infection. Conclusions: Zhejiang Province witnessed an increase in the frequency, incidence, and geographic expansion of indigenous Dengue cases in recent years. The more developed coastal and central region of Zhejiang Province was impacted the most.
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Virus del Dengue , Dengue , China/epidemiología , Dengue/epidemiología , Brotes de Enfermedades , Humanos , IncidenciaRESUMEN
The study aimed to examine the impact of a community-based health education intervention on the awareness and attitude of influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccination in patients with chronic diseases. We selected study participants from two counties in Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province. We conducted a household baseline survey with quarterly follow-up and health education for all chronic disease patients in the area. A total of 720 patients with chronic diseases were included in two rounds of questionnaire surveys before and after a year-long health education related to the influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccination. Before the community education, 59.9% and 59.6% of study participants self-report the awareness of the hazards of influenza and pneumonia, respectively; while only 17.7% and 6.0% study participants self-reported awareness of the influenza or pneumonia vaccination, respectively; the self-reported vaccination rates were 1.3% and 0% for influenza and pneumonia, respectively. One year after the intervention, all rates were increased significantly, but the influenza vaccination rate was still far below the WHO minimum target level (75%). The main reason for not getting vaccinated reported by study participants was that participants thought they were in good health and would not become sick easily. There was no statistically significant difference between the impacts of health care practitioners' and general practitioners' recommendations for vaccination. Continued and pertinent health education has a significant impact on influenza and pneumonia vaccination in patients with chronic diseases.
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Vacunas contra la Influenza , Gripe Humana , Neumonía , Enfermedad Crónica , Educación en Salud , Humanos , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Intención , Neumonía/prevención & control , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , VacunaciónRESUMEN
SUMMARY: What is already known on this topic? Clusters of COVID-19 cases often happened in small settings (e.g., families, offices, school, or workplaces) that facilitate person-to-person virus transmission, especially from a common exposure. What is added by this report? On January 10 and 11, 2021, an individual gave three product promotional lectures in Tonghua City, Jilin Province, that ultimately led to a 74-case cluster of COVID-19. Our investigation determined the outbreak to be an import-related COVID-19 superspreading cluster event in which elderly, retired people were exposed to the infected individual during his promotional lectures, which were delivered in a confined space and lasted several hours. What are the implications for public health practice? Routine activities, such as attending a lecture in a classroom, can provide an environment conducive to COVID-19 superspreading events because respiratory viruses can spread easily and widely. We suggest local government to strengthen infection control management, reduce unnecessary indoor large gathering activities, and promote wearing of masks, especially during wintertime in the north of China. Health education for elderly people should promote use of effective personal protection and emphasize the importance of wearing masks.
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What is already known on this topic? Contact tracing and testing with isolated medical care of identified cases is a key strategy for interrupting chains of transmission of COVID-19 and reducing mortality associated with COVID-19. At the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to test capacity limitations, case finding often started from suspected cases. What is added by this report? The index patient infected 74 individuals who were close contacts that were identified through contact tracing, and exposed individuals were monitored in quarantine with daily polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. All individuals were asymptomatic initially, but all PCR-positive individuals eventually developed symptoms. Infectivity was documented up to 8 days before being confirmed as a symptomatic case, approximately 4 days before turning PCR positive. What are the implications for public health practice? During an outbreak, we suggest tracing close contacts from both PCR-positive individuals and suspected cases, rather than from suspected cases alone. Due to the long period of infectivity before turning PCR positive or developing symptoms, close contacts that had contact with a newly PCR positive case within 4 days should be judged as at risk of being infected; close contacts that had contact within 8 days of a newly symptomatic case should be judged as at risk being infected.
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Importance: Much remains unknown about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. How the severity of the index case and timing of exposure is associated with disease in close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and clinical presentation in those developing disease is not well elucidated. Objectives: To investigate the association between the timing of exposure and development of disease among close contacts of index patients with COVID-19 and to evaluate whether the severity of the index case is associated with clinical presentation in close contacts who develop COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used a large, population-based cohort of 730 individuals (index patients) who received a diagnosis of COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China, from January 8 to July 30, 2020, along with a contact tracing surveillance program. Field workers visited 8852 close contacts of the index patients and evaluated them for COVID-19 through August 2020. A timeline was constructed to characterize different exposure periods between index patients and their contacts. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the attack rate of COVID-19, defined as the total number of new COVID-19 cases diagnosed among contacts of index patients divided by the total number of exposed contacts. A secondary outcome was asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Relative risks were calculated to investigate risk factors for COVID-19 among contacts and asymptomatic clinical presentation among infected contacts. Results: Among 8852 close contacts (4679 male contacts [52.9%]; median age, 41 years [interquartile range, 28-54 years]) of 730 index patients (374 male patients [51.2%]; median age, 46 years [interquartile range, 36-56 years]), contacts were at highest risk of COVID-19 if they were exposed between 2 days before and 3 days after the index patient's symptom onset, peaking at day 0 (adjusted relative risk [ARR], 1.3; 95% CI, 1.2-1.5). Compared with being exposed to an asymptomatic index patient, the risk of COVID-19 among contacts was higher when they were exposed to index patients with mild (ARR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) and moderate (ARR, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.9-9.7) cases of COVID-19. As index case severity increased, infected contacts were less likely to be asymptomatic (exposed to patient with mild COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9; exposed to patient with moderate COVID-19: ARR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found that individuals with COVID-19 were most infectious a few days before and after symptom onset. Infected contacts of asymptomatic index patients were less likely to present with COVID-19 symptoms, suggesting that quantity of exposure may be associated with clinical presentation in close contacts.
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COVID-19/transmisión , Trazado de Contacto , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Adulto , Anciano , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , China , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Evaluación de Síntomas , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Most countries are dependent on nonpharmaceutical public health interventions such as social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation to mitigate COVID-19 spread until medicines or vaccines widely available. Minimal research has been performed on the independent and combined impact of each of these interventions based on empirical case data. METHODS: We obtained data from all confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 7th to February 22nd 2020 in Zhejiang Province, China, to fit an age-stratified compartmental model using human contact information before and during the outbreak. The effectiveness of social distancing, contact tracing, and case isolation was studied and compared in simulation. We also simulated a two-phase reopening scenario to assess whether various strategies combining nonpharmaceutical interventions are likely to achieve population-level control of a second-wave epidemic. RESULTS: Our study sample included 1,218 symptomatic cases with COVID-19, of which 664 had no inter-province travel history. Results suggest that 36.5 % (95 % CI, 12.8-57.1) of contacts were quarantined, and approximately five days (95 % CI, 2.2-11.0) were needed to detect and isolate a case. As contact networks would increase after societal and economic reopening, avoiding a second wave without strengthening nonpharmaceutical interventions compared to the first wave it would be exceedingly difficult. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous attention and further improvement of nonpharmaceutical interventions are needed in second-wave prevention. Specifically, contact tracing merits further attention.
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COVID-19 , Epidemias , Trazado de Contacto , Humanos , Distanciamiento Físico , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Avian influenza virus A(H7N9) remains a threat to humans and has great potential to cause a pandemic in the foreseeable future. Antiviral treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors has been recommended to treat patients with H7N9 infection as early as possible, although evidence-based research on their effectiveness for H7N9 infection is lacking. METHODS: Data from all laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 infection in Zhejiang Province between 2013 and 2017 were retrieved, and time-dependent survival models were used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors to reduce the risk of mortality. RESULTS: The final optimal model found no significant association (odds ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 0.78-2.15) between time to treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors and survival after controlling for age and white blood cell count. Sensitivity analyses with multiple imputation for missing data concurred with the primary analysis. CONCLUSIONS: No association was found between treatment with neuraminidase inhibitors and survival in patients with H7N9 infection using various adjusted models and sensitivity analyses of missing data imputations.
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Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Subtipo H7N9 del Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana/tratamiento farmacológico , Gripe Humana/virología , Neuraminidasa/antagonistas & inhibidores , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Laboratorios , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Due to variations in climatic conditions, the effects of meteorological factors and PM2.5 on influenza activity, particularly in subtropical regions, vary in existing literature. In this study, we examined the relationship between influenza activity, meteorological parameters, and PM2.5 . METHODS: A total of 20 165 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, were documented in our dataset and aggregated into weekly counts for downstream analysis. We employed a combination of the quasi-Poisson-generalized additive model and the distributed lag non-linear model to examine the relationship of interest, controlling for long-term trends, seasonal trends, and holidays. RESULTS: A hockey-stick association was found between absolute humidity and the risk of influenza infections. The overall cumulative adjusted relative risk (ARR) was statistically significant when weekly mean absolute humidity was low (<10 µg/m3 ) and high (>17.5 µg/m3 ). A slightly higher ARR was observed when weekly mean temperature reached over 30.5°C. A statistically significantly higher ARR was observed when weekly mean relative humidity dropped below 67%. ARR increased statistically significantly with increasing rainfall. For PM2.5 , the ARR was marginally statistically insignificant. In brief, high temperature, wet and dry conditions, and heavy rainfall were the major risk factors associated with a higher risk of influenza infections. CONCLUSIONS: The present study contributes additional knowledge to the understanding of the effects of various environmental factors on influenza activities. Our findings shall be useful and important for the development of influenza surveillance and early warning systems.
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Gripe Humana , China/epidemiología , Humanos , Humedad , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Conceptos Meteorológicos , Material Particulado , Estaciones del Año , TemperaturaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Monitoring the reproduction number (Rt ) of the disease could help determine whether there is sustained transmission in a population, but areas with similar epidemic trends could have different transmission dynamics given the risk from imported cases varied across regions. In this study, we examined the Rt of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by taking different dynamics of imported cases into account and compared the transmissibility of COVID-19 at different intervention periods in Hangzhou and Shenzhen. METHODS: We obtained the daily aggregated counts of laboratory-confirmed imported and local cases of COVID-19 infections in Hangzhou and Shenzhen from January 1 to March 13, 2020. Daily Rt and piecewise Rt before and after Wuhan lockdown were estimated, accounting for imported cases. RESULTS: Since the epidemic of COVID-19 in Shenzhen was dominated by imported cases, Rt was around 0.1 to 0.7 before the Wuhan lockdown. After the lockdown of Wuhan and the initialization of measures in response to the outbreak, local transmission was well-controlled as indicated by a low estimated value of piecewise Rt , 0.15 (95% CI [0.09-0.21]). On the contrary, Rt obtained for Hangzhou ranged from 1.2 to 4.9 with a piecewise Rt of 2.55 (95% CI [2.13-2.97]) before the lockdown of Wuhan due to the surge in local cases. Because of the Wuhan lockdown and other outbreak response measures, Rt dropped below unity in mid-February. CONCLUSIONS: Even though Shenzhen had more cases than Hangzhou, local transmission did not sustain probably due to limited transmission from imported cases owing to the reduction in local susceptibles as residents left the city during Chunyun. The lockdown measures and local outbreak responses helped reduce the local transmissibility.
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Importance: Evidence of whether severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), can be transmitted as an aerosol (ie, airborne) has substantial public health implications. Objective: To investigate potential transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 infection with epidemiologic evidence from a COVID-19 outbreak. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined a community COVID-19 outbreak in Zhejiang province. On January 19, 2020, 128 individuals took 2 buses (60 [46.9%] from bus 1 and 68 [53.1%] from bus 2) on a 100-minute round trip to attend a 150-minute worship event. The source patient was a passenger on bus 2. We compared risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among at-risk individuals taking bus 1 (n = 60) and bus 2 (n = 67 [source patient excluded]) and among all other individuals (n = 172) attending the worship event. We also divided seats on the exposed bus into high-risk and low-risk zones according to the distance from the source patient and compared COVID-19 risks in each zone. In both buses, central air conditioners were in indoor recirculation mode. Main Outcomes and Measures: SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction or by viral genome sequencing results. Attack rates for SARS-CoV-2 infection were calculated for different groups, and the spatial distribution of individuals who developed infection on bus 2 was obtained. Results: Of the 128 participants, 15 (11.7%) were men, 113 (88.3%) were women, and the mean age was 58.6 years. On bus 2, 24 of the 68 individuals (35.3% [including the index patient]) received a diagnosis of COVID-19 after the event. Meanwhile, none of the 60 individuals in bus 1 were infected. Among the other 172 individuals at the worship event, 7 (4.1%) subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis. Individuals in bus 2 had a 34.3% (95% CI, 24.1%-46.3%) higher risk of getting COVID-19 compared with those in bus 1 and were 11.4 (95% CI, 5.1-25.4) times more likely to have COVID-19 compared with all other individuals attending the worship event. Within bus 2, individuals in high-risk zones had moderately, but nonsignificantly, higher risk for COVID-19 compared with those in the low-risk zones. The absence of a significantly increased risk in the part of the bus closer to the index case suggested that airborne spread of the virus may at least partially explain the markedly high attack rate observed. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study and case investigation of a community outbreak of COVID-19 in Zhejiang province, individuals who rode a bus to a worship event with a patient with COVID-19 had a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection than individuals who rode another bus to the same event. Airborne spread of SARS-CoV-2 seems likely to have contributed to the high attack rate in the exposed bus. Future efforts at prevention and control must consider the potential for airborne spread of the virus.
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COVID-19 , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas , Vehículos a Motor/estadística & datos numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Transportes/métodos , Contaminación del Aire , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/transmisión , China/epidemiología , Estudios de Cohortes , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/diagnóstico , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/epidemiología , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/prevención & control , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Medición de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidadRESUMEN
Scarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011-2018 was twice that in 2004-2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29-2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO2 (r = 0.21) and O3 (r = 0.11). A 10 µg/m3 increase of NO2 and O3 was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO2 and O3 may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established.
Asunto(s)
Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Escarlatina/diagnóstico , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , China/epidemiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Geografía , Humanos , Incidencia , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Dinámicas no Lineales , Ozono/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Factores de Riesgo , Escarlatina/epidemiología , Escarlatina/etiología , Estaciones del Año , Análisis Espacio-TemporalRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the pathogen causing novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), efficiently spreads from person to person in close contact settings. Transmission among casual contacts in settings such as during social gatherings is not well understood. METHODS: We report several transmission events to both close and casual contacts from a cluster of 7 COVID-19 cases occurring from mid-January to early February 2020. A total of 539 social and family contacts of the index patient's, including members of a 2-day wedding and a family party, were contacted and screened through epidemiologic surveys. The clinical progression of all cases is described. RESULTS: We estimate the secondary attack rate among close contacts to be 29% (2 of 7) and for the casual contacts to be 0.6% (3 of 473). The incubation period of our case cluster was 4-12 days (median, 7 days). CONCLUSIONS: Transmission efficiency among close contacts was higher than among casual contacts; however, transmission from second-generation cases may help spread the virus during the incubation period.