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1.
Biomed Mater ; 19(4)2024 May 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38697199

RESUMEN

Porous tantalum scaffolds offer a high degree of biocompatibility and have a low friction coefficient. In addition, their biomimetic porous structure and mechanical properties, which closely resemble human bone tissue, make them a popular area of research in the field of bone defect repair. With the rapid advancement of additive manufacturing, 3D-printed porous tantalum scaffolds have increasingly emerged in recent years, offering exceptional design flexibility, as well as facilitating the fabrication of intricate geometries and complex pore structures that similar to human anatomy. This review provides a comprehensive description of the techniques, procedures, and specific parameters involved in the 3D printing of porous tantalum scaffolds. Concurrently, the review provides a summary of the mechanical properties, osteogenesis and antibacterial properties of porous tantalum scaffolds. The use of surface modification techniques and the drug carriers can enhance the characteristics of porous tantalum scaffolds. Accordingly, the review discusses the application of these porous tantalum materials in clinical settings. Multiple studies have demonstrated that 3D-printed porous tantalum scaffolds exhibit exceptional corrosion resistance, biocompatibility, and osteogenic properties. As a result, they are considered highly suitable biomaterials for repairing bone defects. Despite the rapid development of 3D-printed porous tantalum scaffolds, they still encounter challenges and issues when used as bone defect implants in clinical applications. Ultimately, a concise overview of the primary challenges faced by 3D-printed porous tantalum scaffolds is offered, and corresponding insights to promote further exploration and advancement in this domain are presented.


Asunto(s)
Materiales Biocompatibles , Sustitutos de Huesos , Huesos , Osteogénesis , Impresión Tridimensional , Tantalio , Ingeniería de Tejidos , Andamios del Tejido , Tantalio/química , Andamios del Tejido/química , Porosidad , Humanos , Materiales Biocompatibles/química , Ingeniería de Tejidos/métodos , Animales , Sustitutos de Huesos/química , Ensayo de Materiales , Regeneración Ósea
2.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38722715

RESUMEN

A fiber-optic urea sensor based on surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and Mach-Zehnder interference (MZI) combined principle was designed and implemented. By plating gold film on the single-mode-no-core-thin-core-single-mode fiber structure, we successfully excited both SPR and MZI, and constructed two parallel detection channels for simultaneously measurement of urea concentration and temperature. Urease was immobilized on the gold film by metal-organic zeolite skeleton (ZIF-8), which can not only fix a large number of urease to improve measurement sensitivity of urea, but also protect urease activity to ensure the sensor stability. Experimental results indicate that the designed urea sensor with temperature compensation function can detect urea solution with concentration of 1-9 mM, and the sensitivity is 1.4 nm/mM. The proposed measurement method provides a new choice for monitoring urea concentration in the field of medical diagnosis and human health monitoring.

3.
Appl Opt ; 63(4): 959-966, 2024 Feb 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38437392

RESUMEN

In this paper, a highly sensitive ammonia (N H 3) sensor based on a polymethyl methacrylate/polyaniline (PMMA/PANI) microwire structure is designed and implemented. First, a micron-sized PMMA microwire was fabricated and connected with two tapered single-mode fibers to form a coupling structure; thus, the Mach-Zehnder (MZ) interference was successfully excited due to the good light conductivity of the PMMA. It was demonstrated that the coupling structure behaved with a high refractive index detection sensitivity of 3044 nm/RIU. To make it sensitive to N H 3, the PANI was selected to mix with PMMA and then formed a micron-level PMMA/PANI fiber. The experimental results showed that the PMMA/PANI fiber can selectively sense N H 3 with a high sensitivity of 65.3 pm/ppm. This proposed N H 3 sensor not only solves the problem of sensitive film shedding, but also possesses the advantages of good integration, high sensitivity, good selectivity, and short response time.

4.
Nanoscale ; 16(9): 4637-4646, 2024 Feb 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38314787

RESUMEN

As one of the most intriguing nanozymes, the platinum (Pt) nanozyme has attracted tremendous research interest due to its various catalytic activities but its application is still limited by its poor colloidal stability and low affinity to substrates. Here, we design a highly stable Pt@carbon dot (Pt@CD) hybrid nanozyme with enhanced peroxidase (POD)-like activity (specific activity of 1877 U mg-1). The Pt@CDs catalyze the decomposition of hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) to produce singlet oxygen and hydroxyl radicals and exhibit high affinity to H2O2 and high specificity to 3,3',5,5'-tetramethyl-benzidine. We reveal that both the hydroxyl and carbonyl groups of CDs could coordinate with Pt2+ and then regulate the charge state of the Pt nanozyme, facilitating the formation of Pt@CDs and improving the POD-like activity of Pt@CDs. Colorimetric detection assays based on Pt@CDs for H2O2, dopamine, and glucose with a satisfactory detection performance are achieved. Moreover, the Pt@CDs show a H2O2-involving antibacterial effect by destroying the cell membrane. Our findings provide new opportunities for designing hybrid nanozymes with desirable stability and catalytic performance by using CDs as nucleating templates and stabilizers.


Asunto(s)
Carbono , Platino (Metal) , Carbono/química , Platino (Metal)/química , Peróxido de Hidrógeno/química , Glucosa , Peroxidasas/química , Peroxidasa/química
6.
Front Bioeng Biotechnol ; 11: 1219745, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37790252

RESUMEN

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the biomechanical effectiveness of 3D-printed integrated acetabular prosthesis (IAP) and modular acetabular prosthesis (MAP) in reconstructing the acetabulum for patients with Crowe III developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). The results of this study can provide a theoretical foundation for the treatment of Crowe III DDH in total hip arthroplasty (THA). Methods: Finite element (FE) analysis models were created to reconstruct Crowe III DDH acetabular defects using IAP and MAP. The contact stress and relative micromotion between the acetabular prosthesis and the host bone were analyzed by gradually loading in three increments (210 N, 2100 N, and 4200 N). In addition, five patients with Crowe III DDH who underwent IAP acetabular reconstruction were observed. Results: At the same load, the peak values of IAP contact stress and relative micromotion were lower than those of MAP acetabular reconstruction. Under jogging load, the MAP metal augment's peak stress exceeded porous tantalum yield strength, and the risk of prosthesis fracture was higher. The peak stress in the bone interface in contact with the MAP during walking and jogging was higher than that in the cancellous bone, while that of IAP was higher than that of the cancellous bone only under jogging load, so the risk of MAP cancellous bone failure was greater. Under jogging load, the relative micromotion of the MAP reconstruction acetabular implant was 45.2 µm, which was not conducive to bone growth, while under three different loads, the relative micromotion of the IAP acetabular implant was 1.5-11.2 µm, all <40 µm, which was beneficial to bone growth. Five patients with IAP acetabular reconstruction were followed up for 11.8 ± 3.4 months, and the Harris score of the last follow-up was 85.4 ± 5.5. The imaging results showed good stability of all prostheses with no adverse conditions observed. Conclusion: Compared with acetabular reconstruction with MAP, IAP has a lower risk of loosening and fracture, as well as a better long-term stability. The application of IAP is an ideal acetabular reconstruction method for Crowe III DDH.

7.
Front Chem ; 11: 1288418, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37901159

RESUMEN

Introduction: Dopamine is one of the most significant neurotransmitters and plays an important role in the management of cognitive functions such as learning, memory, and behavior. The disorder of dopamine is associated with many major mental diseases. It is necessary to develop selective methods for the detection of dopamine. Methods: In this work, carbon dots (CDs) were synthesized by a solvothermal route using glutathione, L-histidine, and formamide as sources. Results: Under light irradiation, The CDs convert dissolved oxygen to singlet oxygen (1O2), which could oxidize TMB. When reduced dopamine was present, it suppressed the catalysis of CDs, then the absorption of the CDs-coupled TMB complex at 652 nm was diminished. Furthermore, it was revealed that the surface groups including hydroxyl, amino, carbonyl, and carboxyl groups of CDs were related to their light-responsive catalytic activity by surface modification. In the range of 0.5-15 µM, the CDs could afford a LOD of 0.25 µM for dopamine detection with fine linearity, also showing good selectivity. Discussion: The results from fetal bovine serum indicated the good applicability of the CDs in the determination of dopamine.

8.
Sci Bull (Beijing) ; 68(22): 2827-2837, 2023 Nov 30.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37858411

RESUMEN

Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure-response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%-131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%-15.3%), and -17.8% (-15.3%--20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances.

9.
PeerJ ; 11: e15209, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37123004

RESUMEN

Background: Despite increasing public concerns about the widespread health effects of climate change, the impacts of ambient temperature on atopic dermatitis (AD) remain poorly understood. Objectives: We aimed to explore the effect of ambient temperature on AD and to estimate the burdens of AD attributed to extreme temperature. Methods: Data on outpatients with AD and climate conditions in Chengdu, China were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was adopted to explore the association between daily mean temperature and AD outpatient visits. Subgroup analysis was used to identify vulnerable populations. Attributable burden was estimated by the epidemiological attributable method. Results: We analyzed 10,747 outpatient visits from AD patients at West China Hospital in Chengdu between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Both low (<19.6 °C) and high temperatures (>25.3 °C) were associated with increased AD outpatient visits, with the increase being more pronounced at low temperature, as evidenced by a 160% increase in visits when the temperature dropped below zero from the minimum mortality temperature (22.8 °C). Children and males were the most susceptible populations. Approximately 25.4% of AD outpatient visits were associated with temperatures, causing an excessive 137161.5 US dollars of health care expenditures during this 6-year period. Conclusions: Both high and low temperatures, particularly low temperatures, were significantly associated with an increased risk of AD, with children and males showing the strongest associations. Extreme environmental temperature has been identified as one of the major factors promoting the development of AD. However, individual patient-level exposures still needed to be investigated in future studies to confirm the causality between temperature and AD.


Asunto(s)
Dermatitis Atópica , Masculino , Niño , Humanos , Temperatura , Dermatitis Atópica/epidemiología , Frío , China/epidemiología , Calor , Fiebre
10.
Orthop Surg ; 15(5): 1264-1271, 2023 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36896785

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: The treatment of acetabular defects is one of the most difficult challenges of revision of total hip arthroplasty (RTHA), and tantalum is regarded as a promising bone substitute material. This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of 3D printed acetabular augment used in RTHA for the treatment of acetabular bone defect. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of seven patients who had undergone RTHA was carried out using 3D printed acetabular augment from January 2017 to December 2018. The CT data of the patients were exported to Mimics 21.0 software (Materialise, Leuven, Belgium), and the acetabular bone defect augment were designed, printed and then implanted during operation. The postoperative Harris score, visual analogue scale (VAS) score and prosthesis position were observed to evaluate the clinical outcome. A I-test was used for preoperative and postoperative comparison of the paired-design dataset. RESULTS: A firm attachment of the bone augment to the acetabulum during operation without any complications was found during the follow-up time 2.8-4.3 years. The VAS score of all patients was found 6.9 ± 1.4 before operation and was 0.7 ± 0.7 at the last follow-up (P ≤ 0.001), and the Harris hip scores, were 31.9 ± 10.3 and 73.3 ± 12.8 before operation, and at the last follow-up (P ≤ 0.001), respectively. Moreover, no loosening sign between the bone defect augment and the acetabulum was observed during the entire implantation period. CONCLUSION: 3D printed acetabular augment is effective in reconstructing the acetabulum following an acetabular bone defect revision, which enhances the hip joint function and eventually makes a satisfactory stable prosthetic.


Asunto(s)
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Prótesis de Cadera , Humanos , Acetábulo/cirugía , Tantalio , Estudios Retrospectivos , Reoperación , Impresión Tridimensional , Falla de Prótesis , Estudios de Seguimiento , Resultado del Tratamiento
11.
Zhongguo Xiu Fu Chong Jian Wai Ke Za Zhi ; 37(3): 353-359, 2023 Mar 15.
Artículo en Chino | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36940996

RESUMEN

Objective: To summarize the characteristics and biomechanical research progress of common acetabular reconstruction techniques in patients with Crowe type Ⅱ and Ⅲ developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA), and provide references for selecting appropriate acetabular reconstruction techniques for clinical treatment of Crowe type Ⅱ and Ⅲ DDH. Methods: The domestic and foreign relevant literature on biomechanics of acetabular reconstruction with Crowe type Ⅱ and Ⅲ DDH was reviewed, and the research progress was summarized. Results: At present, there are many acetabular reconstruction techniques in Crowe type Ⅱ and Ⅲ DDH patients undergoing THA, with their own characteristics due to structural and biomechanical differences. The acetabular roof reconstruction technique enables the acetabular cup prosthesis to obtain satisfactory initial stability, increases the acetabular bone reserve, and provides a bone mass basis for the possible secondary revision. The medial protrusio technique (MPT) reduces the stress in the weight-bearing area of the hip joint and the wear of the prosthesis, and increases the service life of the prosthesis. Small acetabulum cup technique enables shallow small acetabulum to match suitable acetabulum cup to obtain ideal cup coverage, but small acetabulum cup also increases the stress per unit area of acetabulum cup, which is not conducive to the long-term effectiveness. The rotation center up-shifting technique increases the initial stability of the cup. Conclusion: Currently, there is no detailed standard guidance for the selection of acetabular reconstruction in THA with Crowe type Ⅱ and Ⅲ DDH, and the appropriate acetabular reconstruction technique should be selected according to the different types of DDH.


Asunto(s)
Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Displasia del Desarrollo de la Cadera , Luxación Congénita de la Cadera , Prótesis de Cadera , Humanos , Acetábulo/cirugía , Luxación Congénita de la Cadera/cirugía , Displasia del Desarrollo de la Cadera/complicaciones , Displasia del Desarrollo de la Cadera/cirugía , Articulación de la Cadera/cirugía , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera/métodos , Resultado del Tratamiento , Estudios Retrospectivos
12.
Front Bioeng Biotechnol ; 11: 1143575, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36937751

RESUMEN

Objective: To select the most appropriate internal fixation method based on the Pauwels angle, in order to provide a new concept for clinical accurate treatment of femoral neck fractures (FNFs). Methods: FNFs models of Pauwels 30 ° ; 40 ° ; 50 ° ; 60 ° were created respectively. For Pauwels ≤ 50 ° , 1, 2 and 3 Cannulated Compression Screws (CCS) and Porous Tantalum Screws (PTS) were used to fix the fracture for the models. For Pauwels 60 ° , 3CCS and Medial Buttress Plate (MBP) combined with 1, 2 and 3CCS were used to fix the fracture. Based on the results of the finite element (FE) analysis, the biomechanical properties of each model were compared by analyzing and evaluating the following four parameters: maximal stress of the bone (MBS), maximal stress of the implants (MIS), maximal displacement of bone (MBD), interfragmentary motion (IFM). Results: At Pauwels 30 ° , the larger parameters were found in 1CCS, which was 94.8 MPa (MBS), 307.7 MPa (MIS), 0.86 mm (MBD) and 0.36 mm (IFM). In 2CCS group, the parameters were 86.1 MPa (MBS), 254.4 MPa (MIS), 0.73 mm (MBD) and 0.27 mm (IFM), which were similar to those of PTS. At Pauwels 40 ° ; 50 ° , with the increase of the number of used CCS, accordingly, the parameters decreased. Particularly, the MIS (Pauwels 50 ° ) of 1CCS was 1,195.3 MPa, but the other were less than the yield range of the materials. At Pauwels 60 ° , the MBS of 3CCS group was 128.6 Mpa, which had the risk of failure. In 2CCS + MBP group, the parameters were 124.2 MPa (MBS), 602.5 MPa (MIS), 0.75 mm (MBD) and 0.48 mm (IFM), The model stability was significantly enhanced after adding MBP. Conclusion: Pauwels type Ⅰ (< 30 ° ) fractures can reduce the number of CCS, and PTS is an appropriate alternative treatment. For Pauwels type Ⅱ fractures ( 30 ° ∼ 50 ° ), the 3CCS fixation method is still recommended. For Pauwels type Ⅲ fractures (> 50 ° ), it is recommended to add MBP to the medial femoral neck and combine with 2CCS to establish a satisfactory fracture healing environment.

13.
Materials (Basel) ; 16(3)2023 Jan 20.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36769983

RESUMEN

As the application of bone scaffolds becomes more and more widespread, the requirements for the high performance of bone scaffolds are also increasing. The stiffness and porosity of porous structures can be adjusted as needed, making them good candidates for repairing damaged bone tissues. However, the development of porous bone structures is limited by traditional manufacturing methods. Today, the development of additive manufacturing technology has made it very convenient to manufacture bionic porous bone structures as needed. In the present paper, the current state-of-the-art optimization techniques for designing the scaffolds and the settings of different optimization methods are introduced. Additionally, various design methods for bone scaffolds are reviewed. Furthermore, the challenges in designing high performance bone scaffolds and the future developments of bone scaffolds are also presented.

14.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 160, 2023 01 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36631476

RESUMEN

Nanozymes with superoxide dismutase (SOD)-like activity have attracted increasing interest due to their ability to scavenge superoxide anion, the origin of most reactive oxygen species in vivo. However, SOD nanozymes reported thus far have yet to approach the activity of natural enzymes. Here, we report a carbon dot (C-dot) SOD nanozyme with a catalytic activity of over 10,000 U/mg, comparable to that of natural enzymes. Through selected chemical modifications and theoretical calculations, we show that the SOD-like activity of C-dots relies on the hydroxyl and carboxyl groups for binding superoxide anions and the carbonyl groups conjugated with the π-system for electron transfer. Moreover, C-dot SOD nanozymes exhibit intrinsic targeting ability to oxidation-damaged cells and effectively protect neuron cells in the ischemic stroke male mice model. Together, our study sheds light on the structure-activity relationship of C-dot SOD nanozymes, and demonstrates their potential for treating of oxidation stress related diseases.


Asunto(s)
Carbono , Superóxido Dismutasa , Animales , Ratones , Masculino , Superóxido Dismutasa/metabolismo , Superóxidos/metabolismo , Especies Reactivas de Oxígeno/metabolismo , Oxidación-Reducción
15.
Biomater Transl ; 4(3): 166-179, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38283089

RESUMEN

With continuous developments in additive manufacturing technology, tantalum (Ta) metal has been manufactured into orthopaedic implants with a variety of forms, properties and uses by three-dimensional printing. Based on extensive research in recent years, the design, processing and performance aspects of this new orthopaedic implant material have been greatly improved. Besides the bionic porous structure and mechanical characteristics that are similar to human bone tissue, porous tantalum is considered to be a viable bone repair material due to its outstanding corrosion resistance, biocompatibility, bone integration and bone conductivity. Numerous in vitro, in vivo, and clinical studies have been carried out in order to analyse the safety and efficacy of these implants in orthopaedic applications. This study reviews the most recent advances in manufacturing, characteristics and clinical application of porous tantalum materials.

17.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 7565, 2022 12 13.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36513644

RESUMEN

Frequent heatwaves under global warming can increase the risk of preterm birth (PTB), which in turn will affect physical health and human potential over the life course. However, what remains unknown is the extent to which anthropogenic climate change has contributed to such burdens. We combine health impact and economic assessment methods to comprehensively evaluate the entire heatwave-related PTB burden in dimensions of health, human capital and economic costs. Here, we show that during 2010-2020, an average of 13,262 (95%CI 6,962-18,802) PTBs occurred annually due to heatwave exposure in China. In simulated scenarios, 25.8% (95%CI 17.1%-34.5%) of heatwave-related PTBs per year on average can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which further result in substantial human capital losses, estimated at over $1 billion costs. Our findings will provide additional impetus for introducing more stringent climate mitigation policies and also call for more sufficient adaptations to reduce heatwave detriments to newborn.


Asunto(s)
Nacimiento Prematuro , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Nacimiento Prematuro/epidemiología , Cambio Climático , Calentamiento Global , China/epidemiología
18.
BMC Musculoskelet Disord ; 23(1): 999, 2022 Nov 19.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36401231

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Recently, tranexamic acid (TXA) and epsilon aminocaproic acid (EACA) have been applied in total hip arthroplasty (THA). However, doubts in clinicians' minds about which medicine is more efficient and economical in THA need to be clarified. Therefore, this study compared the efficacy and cost of the intraoperative administration of TXA and EACA per surgery in decreasing perioperative blood transfusion rates in THA. METHODS:  This study enrolled patients who underwent THA between January 2019 to December 2020. A total of 295 patients were retrospectively divided to receive topical combined with intravenous TXA (n = 94), EACA (n = 97) or control (n = 104). The primary endpoints included transfusions, estimated perioperative blood loss, cost per patient and the drop in the haemoglobin and haematocrit levels. RESULTS: Patients who received EACA had greater total blood loss, blood transfusion rates, changes in HGB levels and mean cost of blood transfusion per patient (P < 0.05) compared with patients who received TXA. In addition, both TXA and EACA groups had significantly fewer perioperative blood loss, blood transfusion, operation time and changes in haemoglobin and haematocrit levels than the control group (P < 0.05). Cost savings in the TXA and EACA groups were 736.00 RMB and 408.00 RMB per patient, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The application of perioperative antifibrinolytics notably reduces the need for perioperative blood transfusions. What's more, this study demonstrated that TXA is superior to EACA for decreasing blood loss and transfusion rates while at a lower cost per surgery. These results indicate that TXA may be the optimum antifibrinolytics for THA in Chinese area rather than EACA.


Asunto(s)
Antifibrinolíticos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Ácido Tranexámico , Humanos , Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera/efectos adversos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Pérdida de Sangre Quirúrgica/prevención & control , Aminocaproatos , Ácido Aminocaproico , Hemoglobinas
20.
Lancet Reg Health West Pac ; 28: 100582, 2022 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36105236

RESUMEN

Background: In China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes. Methods: We derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. Findings: The number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios. Interpretation: With accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people. Funding: National Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

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