Cost-benefit analysis in the selection of efficient multipollutant strategies.

Pollution control efforts are motivated by the desire to protect human health and the environment. Often, those efforts involve selecting among multiple options for attaining air quality objectives. For example, state and local decision-makers must choose the mix of control strategies for meeting the requirements of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and the Regional Haze Rule. We demonstrate that including assessments of the human health and environmental benefits when evaluating alternative strategies may help decision-makers to identify multipollutant attainment strategies that achieve greater net benefits than would accrue under strategies optimized for cost alone. This paper presents a conceptual framework that decision-makers could use to choose among alternative multipollutant control strategies, accounting for the benefits and the costs of different types and locations of emissions reductions.

A fresh look at the benefits and costs of the US acid rain program.

The US Acid Rain Program (Title IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments) has achieved substantial reductions in emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from power plants in the United States. We compare new estimates of the benefits and costs of Title IV to those made in 1990. Important changes in our understanding of and ability to quantify the benefits of Title IV have occurred. Benefits to human health now take a much higher profile because the contribution of SO2 and NOx emissions to the formation of fine particulate (PM2.5) is substantial, and evidence of the harmful human health effects of PM2.5 has emerged in the last 15 years. New estimates of the health benefits of PM2.5 reductions are the largest category of quantified health and environmental benefits and total over 100 billion US dollars annually for 2010 when the program is expected to be fully implemented. Although important uncertainties exist in any specific estimate of the benefits, even if the estimates were calculated using more limiting assumptions and interpretations of the literature they would still substantially exceed the costs. Estimates of annualized costs for 2010 are about 3 billion US dollars, which is less than half of what was estimated in 1990. Research since 1990 also suggests that environmental problems associated with acid deposition and nitrogen deposition are more challenging to resolve than originally thought and will require larger reductions in emissions to reverse. The greater than expected benefits to human health, the greater vulnerability of natural resources and ecosystems, and the lower than expected costs all point to the conclusion that further reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions from power plants beyond those currently required by Title IV are warranted.

The Impact of Particulate Matter on Daily Mortality in Bangkok, Thailand.

Several studies conducted in U.S. cities report an association between acute exposures to particulate matter (PM), usually measured as PM10, and mortality. Evidence of high concentrations of PM10 in Eastern Europe and in large metropolitan areas outside of the United States, such as Mexico City and Bangkok, underscores the need to determine whether these same associations occur outside of the United States. In addition, conducting studies of mortality and air pollution in regions that have distinctly different seasonal patterns than those of the United States provides an effective opportunity to assess the potentially confounding aspects of seasonality. Over the last few years, daily measures of ambient PM10 have been collected in Bangkok, a tropical city of over 6 million people. In this metropolitan area, PM10 consists largely of fine particles generated from diesel- and gasoline-powered automobiles, and from two-stroke motorcycle engines. Our analysis involved the examination of the relationship between PM10 and daily mortality for 1992 through 1995. In addition to counts of daily natural mortality (total mortality net of accidents, homicides, and suicides), the data were compiled to assess both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, and natural mortality by age group. A multivariate Poisson regression model was used to explain daily mortality while controlling for several covariates including temperature, humidity, day of the week, season, and time. The analysis indicated a statistically significant association between PM10 and all of the alternative measures of mortality. The results suggest a 10-µg/m3 change in daily PM10 is associated with a 1-2% increase in natural mortality, a 1-2% increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 3-6% increase in respiratory mortality. These relative risks are generally consistent with or greater than those reported in most studies undertaken in the United States.

Economic Benefits of Improvements in Visibility: Acid Rain Provisions of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments.

The Acid Rain Provisions (Title IV) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 call for about a 10 million ton reduction in annual SO2 emissions in the United States. Although the provisions apply nationwide, most of the reduction will occur in the eastern half of the country, where use of high-sulfur coal for electricity generation is most common. One potentially large benefit of Title IV is the expected improvement in visibility conditions in the eastern United States due to the reductions in secondary sul-fate aerosols. This paper combines available economic estimates of willingness to pay for improvements in visibility with current estimates of the difference between expected visibility conditions in the eastern United States with and without Title I V, to estimate the expected visibility benefits of Title IV. The results suggest an annual value of $2.3 billion (in 1994 dollars) in the year 2010, as a result of visibility improvements due to Title IV in residential areas of the eastern United States. The results also suggest a possible additional annual value for eastern U.S. residents of as much as $1-2 billion for visibility improvements at national parks in the Southeast.